Why Are Republican Congressional Candidates Sinking Everywhere In The Country?

It starts with abysmal leadership

For months we've been predicting significant gains for Democrats running for Congress in every part of the country. This morning it's official: Carl Hulse and David Herszenhorn have affirmed it in the NY Times. Covering for laughable Inside-the-Beltway myopia, they claim that "analysts now predict a Democratic surge on a scale that seemed unlikely just weeks ago, with even some Republicans in traditional strongholds fighting for their political careers, and Democratic leaders dreaming of ironclad majorities." And they blame the Wall Street meltdown, rather than a gestalt where the Wall Street meltdown and whatever follows it is a symptom of now loathed Republican misrule.

As we've explained before, the open Republican seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado are out of grasp of the extreme rightists running for those seats. McCain strategists have written off Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina and Al Franken just whipped Norm Coleman in two consecutive Minnesota polls. John Sununu (R-NH) has had a big "loser" sign painted on him all year and it's never coming off and the news on Gordon Smith has been so terrible-- I mean the guy;s frozen food factory was busted for employing undocumented workers a few weeks ago-- that it's hard to imagine that in the current electoral climate he can win. Much depends on the outcome of his bribery trial but corrupt Alaska Senator Ted Stevens has come out on the wrong side of every poll in the last 5 or 6 months. One of the two Mississippi races, Wicker's re-election bid, looks very rocky, And although they are tougher races, Democratic challengers have shots in Texas, Maine, Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Idaho, and Nebraska.

In the House, Democrats say they could capture a dozen of the 26 Republican seats left open by retirements, and challengers are closing in on Republican incumbents in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New York and elsewhere.

“The last week has severely damaged Republican candidates,” said Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan analyst who predicts that Democrats could gain as many as six to nine Senate seats and 25 to 30 House seats. “Everything points to warning signals for Republicans.”

If such projections by Mr. Rothenberg and others are realized, it would push Senate Democrats tantalizingly close to the filibuster-proof 60-vote majority that has eluded Senate leaders since the late 1970s. While the environment could change again in the remaining weeks, recent polling suggests a fundamental shift, with Republicans absorbing more of the blame for the economic uncertainty.

At the same time, the political arms of Congressional Republicans are being outspent-- their House organization recently borrowed $8 million-- and have fewer targets, with only a handful of Democrats in Florida, Louisiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin and in potential trouble.

Republicans are understandably nervous.

...Strategists for both parties say Republican House and Senate candidates are being hurt by the dip in support for Senator John McCain at the top of the ticket, frustrating Republicans who had initially viewed Mr. McCain as a strong asset who could appeal to independents and even moderate Democrats and protect Republicans in a tough year.

But the market volatility and perceived Democratic edge on handling the economy has evidently turned voters to Democrats, a view supported by one top adviser to Republican candidates.

“This financial crisis has provided momentum to Barack Obama and other Democrats, and their campaigns now have the wind at their backs,” said the consultant, who asked not to be identified speaking pessimistically about the Republican outlook.

Look at the upstate New York race that pits progressive Democrat Dan Maffei against reactionary Republican Dale Sweetland. A brand new poll shows Maffei with an 18 point lead! And it's far more than just the pinch in people's wallets. The feeling everywhere in the country is that the Republican Party has strayed too far from the mainstream and have lost touch with regular Americans. Republican registration has plummeted while Democratic registration is through the roof. But pick any serious race-- or even one of the dozens of races rapidly becoming serious-- and you'll see why Democrats are ahead and moving further ahead. Let me pull one up at random--- eenie, meanie, minie, Joe... yes Joe Knollenberg serving his eighth term representing moderate, suburban Oakland County near Detroit (MI-09). If the guy was ever on the ball he's completely lost it. Forget for a moment that he's been a Bush rubber stamp on every single issue domestic and foreign and forget that he flip-flopped on Paulson's Wall Street bailout-- against it like his constituents, and then for it like his campaign contributors ($362,500 from Finance, Insurance and Real Estate). Instead think about what kind of an utterly out-of-touch mentality it takes to buy into a late night comedy show punchline like this:

Knollenberg said Wednesday he had asked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Republican John McCain's running mate, to campaign with him in Oakland County. McCain's campaign pulled out of Michigan last week and Palin said she was disappointed by the tactical move.

"She's an exciting lady. She's somebody who knows something about the real world. The governor of Alaska obviously is very much involved in national security because Alaska touches very close to Russia and Russia is not all that happy with us right now nor are we with them," Knollenberg said.

Highlighting the absurdity of Knollenberg's flight from reality, the Michigan Democratic Party has invited Tina Fey to come campaign in Michigan. New polling out this morning from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research confirms that Peters is beating the incumbent. Knollenberg's job approval rating is down to 34% and the new polls shows a 43- 40% lead for Peters.

East of MI-09 is a district represented by one of the most radical right extremists in Congress, Tim Walberg. Polls show him losing badly to state Senator Mark Schauer, who has significant support not just from wildly enthusiastic Democrats and from independents but even from mainstream Republicans embarrassed to be represented by someone from the political fringe. It's worth comparing the brand new ads of the two candidates. Walberg's is about... Michael Moore. Here's Mark Schauer's; another example of way the congressional races are turning into a route:



Although Karl Rove, whose future residency in or out of federal prison is likely to hang on the outcome of the election, is still banking on the capriciousness, ignorance and stupidity of undecided voters, less biased political observers are starting to whisper the word landslide. Obama's coattails have already proven themselves as strong as McCain's are toxic. An Obama landslide will be something Republican members of Congress will remember for decades.

Obviously, what the mainstream media would never think of looking into is the differences between progressive Democrats and nominal Democrats from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, something we looked at yesterday. The differences however, are very real and very crucial and it means a lot more to elect one Darcy Burner or one Gary Peters than a dozen pseudo-Democrats like Paul Carmouche, Bobby Bright or Jerry Connolly. If you'd like to help, you'll find all good ones and no bad ones here at the Blue America ActBlue page.