Will Ryan Postpone The TrumpCare Vote Again Today?

Would it change your negative feelings towards Trump voters-- not the racists, the others-- if you understood the "sea of despair" their lives have become? That's how the Washington Post described their state of mind yesterday, based largely on a new report from the Brookings Institution, Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century. The researchers found that "deaths of despair"-- deaths from suicide, from drug overdose, from alcohol-related liver diseases-- are on the upswing among non-Hispanic whites, the American working class. They make the point that it isn't just an Appalachian problem or a rural problem, but something that is happening across the U.S. Mortality rates are going up everywhere in the country, New York, New Jersey and California being the only exceptions. In the video above, Princeton Professor Anne Case explained that "The people who are really getting hammered are people with less education."

While midlife mortality rates continue to fall among all education classes in most of the rich world, middle-aged non-Hispanic whites in the U.S. with a high school diploma or less have experienced increasing midlife mortality since the late 1990s... [M]ortality rates of whites with no more than a high school degree, which were around 30 percent lower than mortality rates of blacks in 1999, grew to be 30 percent higher than blacks by 2015.

Case and her colleague, Professor Angus Deaton suggest that the increases in deaths of despair are accompanied by a measurable deterioration in economic and social wellbeing, which has become more pronounced for each successive birth cohort. Marriage rates and labor force participation rates fall between successive birth cohorts, while reports of physical pain, and poor health and mental health rise. They documented an accumulation of pain, distress, and social dysfunction in the lives of working class whites that took hold as the blue-collar economic heyday of the early 1970s ended, and continued through the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery.

Unable to round up enough votes to pass it, Ryan and McCarthy pulled the TrumpCare vote off the congressional schedule for yesterday and claim there'll be a vote today-- a vote on a bill that, if ever signed into law, will exacerbate every single thing that Case and Deaton are talking about. Of course, when you demonize science and scientists... you become immune to hearing their warnings. As Matt Taibbi emphasized in his new Rolling Stone piece this week, Trump The Destroyer, "One of the brilliant innovations of the Trump phenomenon has been the turning of expertise into a class issue. Formerly, scientists were political liabilities only insofar as their work clashed with the teachings of TV Bible-thumpers. Now, any person who in any way disputes popular misconceptions-- that balancing a budget is just like balancing a checkbook, that two snowfalls in a week prove global warming isn't real, that handguns would have saved Jews from the Holocaust or little kids from the Sandy Hook massacre-- is part of an elitist conspiracy to deny the selfhood of the Google-educated American. The Republicans understand this axiom: No politician in the Trump era is going to dive in a foxhole to save scientific research. Scientists, like reporters, Muslims and the French, are out." Oh, and by the way, Trump announced that if Ryan can't pull this off today, he's moving on to his own priorities and that Ryan will be on his own with this mess. No one ever thought Trump had much of an attention span for anything that doesn't include enriching himself.

Late last night, Glenn Thrush and Maggie Haberman reported for the NY Times that Trump, who they wrote has appeared "impatient and jittery" all week "has told four people close to him that he regrets going along with" Ryan's anti-healthcare jihad right out of the box, although that doesn't line up with the million and one statements Trump made on the campaign trail promising to repeal Obamacare on his first day in office. "Trump," they reported "was slow to recognize the high stakes of the fight, or the implications of losing." He wants to win so badly that he doesn't seem to care how bad of a betrayal to his voters TrumpCare has become-- scrapping mandatory essential benefits like outpatient visits, mental health services (such as opioid addiction, which he specifically campaigned on) and maternity care.

Yesterday, Ryan's SuperPAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, was instructed to put a scare into Republicans opposing Ryan's TrumpCare bill by pulling financial support from David Young's 2018 reelection efforts-- in an Iowa swing district Obama won both times and Trump won 48.5% to 45.0%. That's hard ball. I bet Ryan wasn't excited yesterday to get a letter from the new CBO director he appointed, Keith Hall, with the latest estimates on the latest version of TrumpCare, after the changes that Ryan and his cronies made to the bill to make it more attractive to far right extremists who generally just oppose government activities in health care. The new estimates incorporate the manager's amendments from Wednesday night when Pete Sessions kept the Rules Committee up all night coming up with something ever more horrible than the first version. "As a result of those amendments," he wrote, "this estimate shows smaller savings over the next 10 years than the estimate that CBO issued on March 13 for the reconciliation recommendations of the House Committee on Ways and Means and the House Committee on Energy and Commerce." That's $186 billion over the 10 year period. But that isn't the worst of it:

CBO and JCT estimate that, in 2018, 14 million more people would be uninsured under the legislation than under current law. The increase in the number of uninsured people relative to the number under current law would reach 21 million in 2020 and 24 million in 2026. In 2026, an estimated 52 million people under age 65 would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law.

...Compared with the previous version of the legislation, H.R. 1628, with the proposed amendments, would have similar effects on health insurance coverage: Estimates differ by no more than half a million people in any category in any year over the next decade. (Some differences may appear larger because of rounding.) For example, the decline in Medicaid coverage after 2020 would be smaller than in the previous estimate, mainly because of states’ responses to the faster growth in the per capita allotments for aged, blind, and disabled enrollees-- but other changes in Medicaid would offset some of those effects.

Pramila Jayapal took one look at the new CBO report and told her Seattle constituents that "the revised TrumpCare bill is worse than the original. In addition to stripping 24 million people of health care, raising costs for low and middle income families, and subjecting middle-aged Americans to an age tax, TrumpCare will now give a $1 trillion tax cut to the rich. Despite all this, Republicans are still ratcheting up this tax bill disguised as a health care plan and offering backroom deals to drum up support. The American people want nothing to do with TrumpCare. I hope the majority in Congress listens to them, and gives up on their ideological quest that would leave millions without health care. As much as Republicans talk about moral values, this bill makes a mockery of every one of those American ideals. Instead of getting more people health care, they just increased tax cuts for the rich by $400 billion."

When she said that "the American people want nothing to do with TrumpCare," she wasn't just speaking rhetorically. Just before the new CBO report came out, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing already very low support for TrumpCare plummeting further. Voters overwhelmingly disapprove 56% to 17%, with 26% undecided. Even support among Republicans is a very tepid 41%. Quinnipiac reported that "if their U.S. Senator or member of Congress votes to replace Obamacare with the Republican health care plan, 46 percent of voters say they will be less likely to vote for that person, while 19 percent say they will be more likely and 29 percent say this vote won't matter... 'Replacing Obamacare will come with a price for elected representatives who vote to scrap it, say many Americans, who clearly feel their health is in peril under the Republican alternative,' said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

John Yarmuth (D-KY), ranking Democrat on the House Budget Committee, pointed out that the "CBO has reconfirmed tonight that the Republican plan will cause millions of Americans to lose their coverage and out-of-pocket costs to skyrocket, while subjecting middle-aged Americans to an age tax. They do all this to give $1 trillion in tax cuts to corporations and the wealthy, but they may not stop there. It is astounding and appalling that Republicans in Congress are negotiating with the health and well-being of American families. They have no moral compass."

It had been widely predicted that if Ryan moved the bill in an uglier direction-- which he very much did with the manager's amendments-- mainstream conservatives would bail... and they did, while Freedom Caucus extremists, who want repeal without replace, are still not on-board. In the last few days many swing state Republicans, sensing the betrayal, ran for the exits. Undecided congressmembers in districts where Democrats have the best chances of beating them are no longer undecided. Among the NO votes now are Charlie Dent (PA), Leonard Lance (NJ), who voted for the first version in committee, John Katko (NY), Dan Donovan (NY), David Young (IA), Chris Smith (NJ), Frank LoBiondo (NJ) and Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA). John Faso (NY) who bought into one of Ryan's promises a couple of days ago is wavering again.

"Sad," wrote Charles Pierce in Esquire referring specifically to Paul Ryan, "the zombie-eyed granny starver from the state of Wisconsin, [who] took one in the chops when a vote of his well-camouflaged tax-cut bill was postponed until Friday morning. This came after a frenzied 48 hours in which Ryan and the president were pulled around by the nose by the more lunatic members of their party who thought the dead-fish Ryan had sent to the House wasn't tough enough on poor people. Finally, rather than face the revolt of the wingnuts, Ryan and the Republican leadership pulled the vote, opting for a meeting of the Republican conference and a possible vote on Friday. This sent the House side of the Capitol into a positive whirlwind of rumor, speculation, and undeniable flopsweat."

Carol Shea-Porter represents a very swingy New Hampshire district. She won in a 3-way race 44.3%-42.9%-9.4%, while Trump beat Hillary 48.2% to 46.6%. In her report to her constituents-- 40,049 of whom would lose health care under the less terrible first TrumpCare proposal-- yesterday she put it like this: "“There are proposed last-minute changes to the bill that would make a cruel bill even meaner. Republicans now want to take away requirements that insurance plans cover essential services like hospitalization, pregnancy care, prescription drugs, and mental health and addiction treatment. These changes would make a terrible bill-- one that would kick 24 million Americans off their coverage-- even worse. The American people don’t want this bill, and neither does New Hampshire: we have a large volume of calls coming in to my office. House Republicans are ignoring their own hardworking constituents, who are pleading to keep their insurance. Health care organizations are attacking this bill. The only people who benefit are the wealthiest, who would get huge tax breaks. Republican leadership is rushing this unpopular, destructive bill to a vote this week because today is the 7-year anniversary of the Affordable Care Act. Clearly, this rushed process is about spite, scoring political points, and helping wealthy supporters, rather than about doing what’s best for the American people.” See that thermometer on the right? Tap it and help slow down Trump and help end Paul Ryan's tenure as Speaker.

Has Miss McConnell Clamped Down On Some Of The Senate GOP's Obstructionist Excesses?

Supposedly there was an agreement to proceed in the Senate as though what matters is what's good for he American people, not what's best for the narrow partisan strategies for the political parties. The "agreement" was put to a test last week when votes for aid to the victims of Hurricane Irene came up. At first the Republicans blocked it with their use of the pocket filibuster last Friday, followed a day later-- as they came under increasing pressure from the public-- with a grudging acquiescence. Half a dozen Republican joined all the Democrats in shutting down the filibuster, including even one of the Senate's worst obstructionists, David Diapers Vitter, understanding that hurricane aid is something Louisiana voters pay attention to. This Thursday the Senate then rejected Kentucky crackpot Rand Paul's amendment to take the disaster relief money from foreign aid. Only 19 Republicans (+ deranged Nebraska multimillionaire reactionary Ben Nelson) voted for this latest nihilistic spasm. All the regular suspects were on board-- the die-hard extremists McConnell has virtually no sway with: Jim DeMint (SC), Ron Johnson (WI), Pat Toomey (R-PA), Richard Burr (NC), Jeff Sessions (AL), Vitter (LA), Rand Paul, of course, the 2 degenerate Oklahomans, Coburn and Inhofe...

And then came the votes on H.R. 2887, the Surface and Air Transportation extension which the GOP was determined to use as a vehicle for some anti-union action at the FAA. Rand Paul was on a role Thursday so he offered a poison pill amendment which was promptly rejected 36-61, 10 Republicans lining up with every Democrat in a bit of a kabuki show that appeared to turn back the barbarians making a last stand for their lunacy for the bloodthirsty extremists in the base. In the end, though-- like 10 minutes later-- the bill passed, as it had to, with a resounding 92-6. Rubio down in Miami, it was only the 6 worst die-hard extremists who voted NO: Coburn (OK), DeMint (SC), Johnson (WI), Lee (UT), Paul (KY) and Toomey (PA), the Senate teabaggers.

Chuck Schumer pointed out that the extremism of arch-obstructionists like Paul and Coburn was starting to make an impression on the public-- and that Republicans see the danger it poses to themselves.

"The public sent a message after the debt-ceiling debate. They said they didn't want brinksmanship. We're beginning to see that," Schumer said, noting that the House sent the FAA and highway bills over without adding any poison pills or dramatic cuts.

"The American public has said stop fighting all the time," Schumer said before the vote. "This is a classic example of what they don't like."

Although Coburn backed down, Schumer argued that GOP leaders need to do a better job reining in lawmakers like Coburn and Tea Party leaders like Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.).

"If the Republican leader were to say to Tom Coburn, 'I am not giving you the votes, you don't have 40 other colleagues to go with you,' he would stop doing these things," Schumer said. "But every time a Sen. Coburn or a Sen. DeMint wants to hold everything up, they have the tacit backing of his party and his leadership, so they're all holding this up in a certain sense."

"The brinksmanship that they exercised on the debt ceiling and the negative reaction to it seems to have given them second thoughts," he added.

And now, about those dilapidated bridges that connect Ohio to Kentucky-- Boehner's area to Miss McConnell's state. Watch the interview with Rep. John Yarmuth in the clip above. In about a week President Obama will be in Cincinnati and he'll no doubt be talking about these bridges and asking why the Republicans are blocking the funds to repair them-- and hundreds of similar situations around the country. Cincinnati is represented by one of Boehner's unpopular cronies, Steve Chabot. Rather than work on solving the economic and infrastructure problems plaguing his constituents, the GOP solution to Chabot's problems was to add an extreme right-wing county, Warren County, onto his district. The bridge is still shut down, but they hope that their are enough lockstep, clueless Fox listeners in Warren so that Chabot won't be thrown out of office again, the way he was in 2008. Thursday, though, The Hill reported that Obama will be discussing the Brent Spence Bridge when he's in town next week.

The 48-year-old bridge, which spans the Ohio River between Ohio and Kentucky, has been under review by transportation officials in the two states for massive repair or replacement. The double-decker inter-state bridge has been described as “functionally obsolete.”

Obama also used the bridge as an example of necessary infrastructure repair in his jobs speech to Congress, prompting both Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to respond that while the bridge is an important priority for their constituents, they would not support funding repairs through earmarks or another stimulus.

Obama’s trip to this particular bridge will likely serve to put additional pressure on the GOP leaders. According to Carney, the choice is a result of Obama’s focus on jobs, not politics.

“It’s not a coincidence in that the bridge is one we can get to and highlight from the White House on a day trip that absolutely illustrates the problems that we have with infrastructure in this country,” he said in Thursday’s press briefing.

Obama’s campaign to pass his jobs bill has included a strong push for mending bridges. In North Carolina on Wednesday, Obama said his bill needed to be passed before any state faced another tragic bridge collapse. “Why would we wait to act until another bridge falls?” he asked.

Obama promised the bill would provide 19,000 construction jobs that would improve public safety. It is his second trip to Ohio within a two-week span. He was in Columbus on Tuesday to promote his jobs bill.

GOD MUST LOVE JOHN YARMUTH-- HE JUST GOT THE MOST ABSURD CHALLENGER ANY INCUMBENT COULD HOPE FOR

You'd be smiling just like John Yarmuth if you just found out your opponent was Erwin Roberts

This morning's Louisville Courier-Journal reported that Erwin Roberts announced that he'll be challenging freshman Congressman John Yarmuth. Every Democrat should be so lucky. (They should also be so conscientious and progressive as Yarmuth, by the way; he has the one of the half dozen best voting records of any of the newly elected members of the House.) This is one race I won't have to stress out about.

Is Roberts a serial pet rapist or an illegal gay alien or something? No, he's really bad news-- and on two counts. Peculiar to Kentucky, here's someone who has just announced he's running for high office after having been not just a member-- but a lynch pin in the heart of darkness of the single most corrupt state administration anywhere in America, that of indicted Governor and Republicrook Ernie Fletcher.

Roberts was Fletcher's personnel secretary when a whistleblower's complaint triggered an investigation into allegations that the administration had illegally awarded civil service jobs on the basis of politics rather than qualifications.

That investigation produced indictments of Fletcher and 14 known defendants, as well as 14 sealed indictments. Fletcher pardoned others, and the misdemeanor charges against him were dropped when he admitted to strong evidence of wrongdoing in his administration's hiring practices.

Roberts was identified by prosecutors as an un-indicted co-conspirator in one court filing. And he asserted his Fifth Amendment right in declining to testify before the grand jury.

What could be worse? Well... Roberts was one of the U.S. attorney types who did not get canned for refusing to politicize the Justice Department. In fact, looking at who was let go and who carried out Karl Rove's diktats that perverted justice, it's very clear which side of the line the Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Kentucky is likely to have been on-- the same side as the crooked U.S. Attorney from Arkansas, Tim Griffin. The Arkansas Times announced that trash was finally thrown out "resigned" today. "Griffin, a former protege of Karl Rove, was formerly research director of the Republican National Committee. In 2004, BBC News published a report showing that Griffin led a "caging" scheme to suppress the votes of African-American servicemembers in Florida. He was the poster boy for the politicization of the U.S. attorney process.

Nothing to do with Kentucky or the crook who's running against Yarmuth-- at least not directly... so far-- but the Justice Department formally notified the Senate Judiciary Committee that it is expanding its probe of the firing of U.S. attorneys last year to include allegations of improper politicizing of hiring at the agency, including the actions of former senior official Monica Goodling. I guess they've had enough time to make sure all the incriminating evidence was disposed of. And, as I've said all along, investigating the circumstances of those-- like David Iglesias-- who were fired is important, but so is investigating the low-life criminals who were rated satisfactory by Rove to stay... like the fellow in Kentucky.