Will Farmers Squeezed By Trump's Trade War Vote For Democrats On Tuesday?

No one ever accused the DCCC of being able to chew gum and walk at the same time. This cycle the catastrophic loser organization is totally obsessed with suburban districts and, generally speaking, ignoring rural voters. That's a shame, because many rural voters are open an alternative to Trump rubber stamps. Yesterday McClatchy reported that "many of those feeling the greatest pain from tariffs the United States and China have put on $50 billion of goods are rural Trump voters... Family farmers have lost billions in profits as a whole. They hate the tariffs," but many Trump supporters "don’t appear to be jumping ship. At least not yet." Not yet in deep red Missouri-- but in other areas people in the farm economy are figuring just how bad Trump and his policies and his enablers are for them and their families.

Progressive Democrat Audrey Denney has been working with farmers "one at a time," she told us, during her 10 month campaign in rural northeast California (CA-01 an R+11 Trump district that only gave Hillary 36% of its vote), "learning about how the administration's policies are harming them-- and what they need from a Representative. I’m confident a fair amount of the agricultural community will be casting their ballots for our campaign this November."

Yesterday she was endorsed by the conservative editorial board of the Chico Enterprise Record-- which "hasn’t endorsed a Democrat for Congress for decades, probably all the way back to conservative Democrat Buzz Johnson in the 1970s." The editors wrote that they "don’t take the endorsement lightly." This huge rural district, they feel, needs new representation in Washington:

We certainly hope LaMalfa realizes Trump is uninformed when he blames California wildfires on environmentalists and a lack of water. Does LaMalfa really think it would be good to raise Shasta Dam and displace homes, roads and bridges? He has no problem sending more north state water to the San Joaquin Valley at the expense of the delta? He doesn’t realize that Trump’s tariff war with China and other trade partners is hurting farmers right here? Or that Congress’ inability to enact any sort of immigration reform means some north state farmers can’t find workers to help harvest the crop? Or that it’s better to work with our neighbors in the Mexican government to secure our borders than to alienate them? Or that Trump’s racist dog whistles aimed at blacks, Hispanics and Muslims are offensive to people right here in his district?

Last night James Thompson, a progressive Democrat running in the Wichita area of Kansas, told us that "This Halloween, our soybean farmers are not getting any treats but they all are feeling tricked. One ag producer here in the fourth district of Kansas lost $200,000 because of the Trump tariffs, but will only recover $50,000 because of the bailout. Ag producers, particularly family farms, are feeling the effects of the disastrous tariffs. Unfortunately, many will still vote straight line Republican even though they are voting against there own interests in doing so. Fortunately, many in rural communities have had enough and are also crossing the aisle to vote for me. Ag producers, veterans, small business owners, teachers, and seniors should all be voting for Democrats because Republicans are hurting all of them."

Last year, the United States exported about $20 billion of agricultural products to China of which soybeans accounted for more than half of that amount.

Trump’s 25 percent tariffs are mainly aimed at curbing imports from China, but Beijing retaliated with taxes on an equal amount of U.S. products, including soybeans and pork.

Soybean prices fell by about 20 percent after the tariffs were enacted, and have dropped from a high of $10 a bushel to about $8.50 today.

Trump insists he can save American jobs and factories by reworking trade deals. He’s making that case directly to sensitive farmers caught in the crossfire with Beijing during the final campaign stretch largely through corn and soybean country, including two stops in Missouri.

“Don’t forget, we’re the piggybank that everybody wants to steal from,” Trump told farmers attending the Future Farmers of America’s annual convention in Indianapolis on Saturday. “Everybody. We have all the cards, but nobody has ever chosen to use those cards. Honestly, nobody has ever known that we had the cards. They never got it. But we get it now.”

To ease the impact of the tariffs-- and keep the rural vote-- Trump announced a $12 billion bailout for farmers earlier this year. Trump will visit Columbia, Mo., on Thursday and Cape Girardeau next week where he’ll throw his support behind Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley in one of the most hotly contested Senate races. Trump sees the chance to defeat Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill as one of the best opportunities to pick up a key Democratic seat.

But the tariffs are the wild card in this year’s election.

Only 28 percent of Missouri registered voters think the Trump tariffs and barriers to imports will protect American jobs and help the U.S. economy, according to a recent NBC News/Marist poll. Forty-four percent says it will hurt the U.S. economy and raise the cost of consumer goods.

Mix in other factors such as the absence of a farm bill and unpredictable weather-- Missouri experienced a long drought this year-- and farming is a high risk industry. Farm income has dropped more than 50 percent in the last five years, according to the American Farm Bureau.

“So farmers are getting squeezed on both sides,” said Brian Kuehl, executive director of Farmers for Free Trade.

David Keith moved from New Jersey to Racine last year to manage Randy Bryce's congressional campaign. Neither he nor Randy is a farmer or part of the farm economy. David told us that, as an "ironworker who has spent the last 20 years making a living by literally working with his hands Randy feels a kinship with the people who work as hard and are as dedicated to the farmers he's met in the district." David told us that "Randy's seen what extremists' policies do to his bottom line and his ability to get by, take care of his family, and have a shot at staying in the middle class. Randy and the farming community in Southeast Wisconsin know that Washington DC-- Trump included-- is full of bullshit artists who put profit and politics ahead of people... just like Paul Ryan and Bryan Steil. Farmers and all working people alike will be coming together next Tuesday to make history, and elect a regular working person to Washington. All working families will benefit, rural and urban."

Mike Siegel, progressive Democrat challenging reactionary Congressman Michael McCaul in TX-10, told us this afternoon that "The Republicans are testing whether they can motivate rural voters with fear, even while Trump's policies cause the same constituents to go hungry. I am in seven rural counties offering a program of Medicare-for-All, a living wage, and infrastructure investment including high-speed Internet. My opponent, Michael McCaul, wants to talk about a couple thousand refugees who are thousands of miles away and may never even reach the US border. What remains to be seen is whether imaginary enemies are more persuasive than real-life needs. Regardless of the outcome of this election, Texas Democrats will need to continue to conduct rural outreach beyond November 6, to build on the amazing foundation laid by this election cycle. We have put in place relationships and infrastructure that will lead to lasting change in the years ahead, so long as we continue to do the detailed work of showing up, listening, and offering real solutions to the problems of rural America."

Leah Douglas, writing for Mother Jones last month noted how important the traditionally Republican farm vote is for Jess King in southern Pennsylvania. This is family farm country and the GOP hasn't been looking out for their interests.

Her campaign is built on a small army of volunteers who knock on doors, make calls, and engage with voters in person—an old-school effort in an age of PACs and polls. King’s supporters all say the same thing about the candidate: She listens to what people say they need, and builds those needs into her policy priorities. That level of attention is particularly meaningful to local farmers, who feel forgotten by federal policy and neglected by local officials. King is proud that her average campaign donation is $35, and claims that her campaign has mobilized more people than any other Democratic campaign in the district’s history.

The result is something of a local phenomenon. Diane House, a retired teacher who has lived in Lancaster for 30 years and is involved in the local Democratic party, says that there is more excitement for King than for any Democrat who’s ever run for Congress in the area. “She’s there for all of us,” House says. “It’s a kind of Jess movement.”

But the odds of her winning are still long. While Lancaster City, a town of some 60,000, is reliably Democratic, the surrounding rural areas are not. If King is to win, it will require a critical mass of farmers to break with tradition and embrace her upstart candidacy-- a shift that, for many, would be tantamount to assuming a new identity.

...[E]conomic strain has led some farmers to reconsider their vote as the midterms approach. “Farmers are feeling disillusioned with politicians,” says Mike Eby, a local dairy farmer and board chair of the National Dairy Producers Organization. He says they’ve “woken up to the reality” that major agriculture lobbies, and the Republican officials they fund, aren’t always working purely in the interest of the farmer.

“There’s been a lot of propaganda out there for many years” from Republicans who say they represent farmers, he says. “What they actually represent is Big Ag.” The current trend of low prices has driven him and other farmers to “start asking the real questions”-- including why Republicans aren’t challenging corporate control in dairy processing, or why they haven’t backed immigration policies that secure labor for the region’s farmers.

Those questions provide an opening for Jess King, whose candidacy is anything but conventional for Lancaster County. “I love blowing up paradigms as a progressive Mennonite running for Congress,” she said at the October event. A longtime advocate for small-business owners, King often says that both parties have sold out to corporate interests and that she aims to give voice to “average working folks.”

Her agricultural platform calls for stronger antitrust enforcement in the heavily consolidated dairy sector, streamlining agricultural regulations, and providing incentives for conservation efforts like cover cropping and farmland preservation. King says farmers have told her that their top issues are access to healthcare and retaining immigrant workers. Her platform supports a pathway to citizenship for immigrants and Medicare for all.

...Smucker’s agricultural platform leans on policies-- such as repealing the Environmental Protection Agency’s updated scope of the Clean Water Act and providing incentives for landowners to protect endangered species rather than relying on federal regulations-- that can seem out of step with the problems consuming farmers in his district. His platform doesn’t mention either the dairy-price crisis or the broader problem of low commodity prices. None of the 14 bills he has introduced since taking office are related to agricultural production.

Slimy Conservatives Avoid Debates-- And When They Get Forced Into One... They ALWAYS Work To Limit Voter Access

Ted Cruz fancies himself a world champion debater. But somehow the political equivalent of a kindergarten toddler kicked his ass during the 2016 Republican primary season. Now he's up against a young congressman from El Paso, Beto O'Rourke and Beto beat him in every debate they've had so far-- hands down. When CNN invited Cruz and Beto to participate in an hour-long nationally televised town hall on October 18, Cruz refused and Beto accepted. Therefore Beto gets a one hour free segment on CNN at 9 PM (CT), worth millions of dollars, about 2 weeks before the election and right in the middle of early voting.

Believe it or not, the California conservative in the Senate race here, Dianne Feinstein, is even worse than Cruz. Feinstein is incapable of debating state Senator Kevin de León, her opponent in the D vs D general election. De León and virtually every major media outlet in the state have tried to get her to debate and she's dodged over and over-- just like she has for the past 2 decades of not debating.

Humiliated by the press, she finally agreed-- but to one with virtually no chance that anyone will see it. The "discussion" (absolutely not a debate) will take place at noon on Wednesday, October 17, sponsored by the Public Policy Institute. The only way to watch it is by registering on their obscure website. No TV or radio coverage will be allowed to broadcast it. Feinstein only agreed to do this if de León is not permitted to address her directly.

In the sprawling 36th district of Texas, east of Houston, Dayna Steele has been trying to get Brian Babin to debate for months. He refuses. Much like Feinstein, he allowed a private, non-broadcast "discussion"-- actually an endorsement screening--where he farted out his right-wing talking points and left. Dayna is still trying to get a real debate but Babin, a dentist and congressional backbencher with not a single accomplishment other than pulling some teeth, has adamantly refused.

Another cowardly conservative, Mimi Walters in Orange County (CA-45), has been hiding out and avoiding a debate, which Katie Porter keeps calling for. Katie's campaign manager, Erica Kwiatkowski, told us that "Walters is refusing to debate Katie Porter on key issues because she cannot defend her record of voting 99% of the time with Donald Trump, including to raise taxes for middle-class families, allowing oil drilling off Orange County coasts, and to take away healthcare from Orange County families including those with pre-existing conditions. Mimi has repeatedly refused to participate in town hall meetings with district residents and now won’t debate the issues that matter to voters."

Hoppy

Kendra Fershee is the progressive Democrat running in northern West Virginia (WV-01, a seat occupied by entrenched Trumpist David McKinely. He doesn't want to debate. Kendra laughed when I asked her and told me he won't even say her name. She told me her campaign has "been hounding him for a debate for months; he's completely ignored every request from us, and from other groups that have asked. But on Monday, he was quoted in the WVU student newspaper saying he would debate me if there's a neutral third party host willing to do it. So, I went on the biggest radio show in the state yesterday and the (somewhat conservative) host of that show (Hoppy Kercheval) called on Rep. McKinley to debate me. Hoppy has made at least two debate request inquiries of the Congressman in the last 72 hours and has been ignored. We have also asked the Wheeling Intelligencer to inquire of Rep. McKinley (that's the paper in his hometown), which has indicated that they may be willing to host as well. This morning, the WVU student newspaper ran a story about how the Congressman has ignored Hoppy's inquiries, and the largest newspaper in the state, the Charleston Gazette Mail, is working on a second story about how none of the Republican House of Representatives candidates will debate their opponents in West Virginia.

Jess King (PA-11) finally got her conservative opponent to debate on Monday. "It took time for the hosts to nail down our opponent," she said, "but he's agreed to two more. He is refusing to do any other forums though, so we are attending them without him."

Mike Siegel's campaign arranged for the League of Women Voters chapters in Houston and Austin to moderate debates. "McCaul," he told me, "refused to participate. His lack of participation is in the context of him not holding any public events in ten years. No town halls, no opportunities to respond to questions from the public. He even refused to respond to a Houston Chronicle candidate questionnaire, so their online voting guide has nothing from him. I'm about to enter a Chronicle editorial board screening. We'll see if he shows."

Up in Maine, the biggest congressional district east of the Mississippi is up for grabs, ME-02, a largely rural, spread-out swing district. It's very helpful for voters to get an idea of who the candidates are beyond just "R" and "D," which is why debates are so important. The incumbent, Trump enabler Bruce Poliquin, actually did a debate with progressive Democrat Jared Golden. He must have been shocked when his canned talking points failed to land any punches and Golden's issue-oriented approach wont day. Poliquin immediately pulled out of the next debate.

Are There More People Who Believe "The Trump Prophecy" Or More Who Believe The NY Times Piece That Exposed Trump As A Fraud?

The Trump Prophecy is the story of a guy with PTSD, Mark Taylor, who believes he heard God telling him Trump is da man! He sounds a lot more like a deeply disturbed QAnon guy than like anyone in touch with God.

He also claims, according to The Guardian that "Trump will serve two terms, the landmark supreme court ruling on abortion in the Roe v Wade case will be overturned, and that next month's midterm elections will result in a 'red tsunami,' strengthening Republican control of both houses of Congress. Barack Obama will be charged with treason and Trump will authorise the arrest of 'thousands of corrupt officials, many of whom are part of a massive satanic pedophile ring.' Trump will also force the release of cures for cancer and Alzheimer’s that are currently being withheld by the pharmaceutical industry."

Producer Rick Eldridge told the press that "There's a mandate for us as believers to pray for those in authority over us. That's a deeper message that we really emphasize in the movie."

OK, so that's one portion of the equation. Yesterday Michael D'Antonio, author of tNever Enough: Donald Trump and the Pursuit of Success wrote an OpEd for CNN, Trump is exposed as the fraud that he is, referencing the blockbuster NY Times exposé that broke Tuesday evening. "In breathtaking detail and with exacting precision," he wrote, "the New York Times has confirmed that for much of his life, though he claimed to be a brilliant businessman, Trump was benefiting from a rigged system, which his family manipulated to transfer enormous wealth from his father to him. This truth, long suspected by those who have peered into Trump's finances, included questionable and potentially fraudulent practices that were used so the Trump clan could avoid paying the kind of taxes ordinary people pay every day... [T]he Times story is quite persuasive. According to the Times, by age 3, Trump was receiving $200,000 per year in today's dollars from his father's operations. By 8, he was a millionaire. And his wealth only grew from there."

Talk about rigged.

Overall, the picture the Times paints comports with much that could be surmised about the family over the years. By the 1960s, his father, Fred, was one of the wealthiest men in New York. His financial prowess backed his son's first big project, a hotel renovation at Grand Central Terminal, and his signature Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue. Although the back story about the hotel project and Trump Tower were well established, the facts assembled by the Times show Donald Trump used deception, not just in carrying out those projects, but throughout the course of his career.

The Times notes he profited from his father's largess to the tune of more than $400 million. Much of this money was given to him though business entities, trusts and employment schemes that permitted him to accept multiple salaries at the same time.

...All the evidence gathered by the Times conflicts directly with the message Trump has long promoted. From his early days in Manhattan, when he marketed himself as a young tycoon, Trump insisted he had succeeded on the basis of his own ingenuity, creativity and grit.

This myth is the chief takeaway from his famous best-selling book, The Art of the Deal, and it was the backdrop for the development of his TV show The Apprentice. In the opening montage for the program, he falsely declared he was "the largest real estate developer in New York, by far." Real estate insiders, of course, knew this claim was rubbish.

Not surprisingly, much of Trump's rhetoric was seen as hyperbole in the service of a public image that was playful and ridiculous. However, once his business acumen became one of the pillars of his presidential campaign, it became fair game for intense examination. Trump has impeded the process by refusing to honor the tradition of releasing his tax returns. However, with impressive legwork and number-crunching, the Times has made the picture much less opaque... The wall of secrecy has now been breached, and what lies behind it seems to be proof that, at the very least, the reputation Trump claimed was a fraud all along.

Today our friends from Vote Common Good made it to Lancaster, PA for a rally with Jess King. Good coverage from Earle Cornelius of LancasterOnline. For decades, Republicans and white evangelical voters have been in lockstep on issues ranging from abortion to gun rights to religious freedom," he wrote. "According to the Pew Research Center, more than 80 percent of white evangelical voters supported Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. But a group of progressive Christians, many of whom are evangelical Democrats, hope to change those numbers."

Wednesday evening, that group, Vote Common Good, staged a rally at  Grace United Church of Christ, 1947 New Holland Pike. Lancaster was the second stop on a scheduled 31-stop tour, designed to rally voters in 20 battleground congressional districts-- including the 11th Congressional District that includes Lancaster County-- across the country.

Doug Pagitt, an evangelical pastor from Minneapolis, and executive director of Vote Common Good, said the election of Donald Trump was the catalyst that birthed the organization.

Pagitt said it was “terrifying” that “Donald Trump was not only a reasonable choice but the preferred choice of evangelicals. This kind of tragedy in the American spirit isn’t just a problem to solve, it’s really a crisis to respond to.”

Speaking to a gathering of roughly 35 people at Grace UCC, Pagitt said the group’s aim is to “flip Congress” as a way to counter the Trump administration’s policies.

He said while he does not to promote either party, “It is the way the Republicans and the Trump administration has acted that has caused my faith to fuel me ... to do something about it,” he said.

“No one is calling for perfection,” he said. “What every religious person I know calls for is that their leaders act in ways that are righteous.”

That message resonated with Juli Knopp, who traveled to the event from York with her husband, Wayne.

A registered Democrat, she said the tone coming out of Washington, D.C.  has angered her.

“So I thought this would be a good first step to figure out how I can do something,” she said.

Her husband, a former Republican who is registered as an independent, worries that legislation now being promoted in Washington, D.C., adversely affects most Americans.

“It seems that the policies being created now are more and more geared toward a smaller and smaller segment of the world and it’s just not right.”

Jeff Dombach, a computer programmer from Centerville is an independent voter. He said he has supported Republican candidates in the past but “is unhappy with the divisiveness that’s being brewed in politics.

“Even though I’m an old white guy, I think the powers in control are just driven out of fear for losing their status and rank in society and maybe it’s time they do.”

Lydia from Lititz, who declined to give her last name, said she was an evengelical for most of her life and a Republican for 40 years. But no longer.

“I was a Goldwater girl,” she said, referring to the late Sen. Barry Goldwater, who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964. “But I can’t support  any Republicans now.”

As for evangelicals, she posed this question: “Where is the discernment?”

Pagitt said some Republican Christians he has spoken to are more loyal “to the Second Amendment than to the Second Commandment.”

Jess King, the Democratic  candidate in the 11th Congressional District, called this “an unusual political moment.”

Prior to addressing the gathering, she said people don’t believe their values are being represented in Washington. D.C.

Among the speakers was Robb Ryerse, a pastor from Fayetteville, Arkansas, who lost in the 2018 Republican primary election to incumbent Steve Womack.

Ryerse describes himself as a pro-life Republican who supports universal health care. Those two issues are not mutually exclusive, he said, because health care is not only about protecting babies but about making sure all Americans have health care coverage.

“I have stayed in the  Republican Party to fight for the historic values of the party,” he said. “It’s the party that used to be the progressive party in the United States.”

America is split now, between those who believe The Trump Prophesy or some other nonsensical garbage just like it, and those who believe that Trump is a crook and a fraud, a modern day P.T. Barnum. That, alas, is pretty much what the midterm elections are all about next month.

A Long Shot Pennsylvania Candidate Worth Betting On

When the Pennsylvania Supreme Court redrew the gerrymandered congressional boundaries, it was of great help to Democrats in most-- but not all-- districts. PA-16 was the south central Pennsylvania district that included most of Lancaster County. Joe Pitts was the longtime anti-Choice fanatic who represented the area. When Pitts retired, Republican Lloyd Smucker beat garden variety Democrat Christina Hartman 168,669 (53.8%) to 134,586 (42.9%). Hartman was a thoroughly unimpressive candidate, with nothing particularly to offer voters other than it was time to have a woman and time to have an unoffensive generic Democrat. The voters thought otherwise. That was in 2016 when the district's PVI was R+4. Trump won the district. As candidates starting sorting things out for 2018, a very non-generic Democratic woman decided to run a fully grassroots campaign, Jess King, a Berniecrat who has lots to offer to south central Pennsylvania voters. From Democratic corporate world, Hartman jumped in again too. And then... along comes the Supreme Court. The strongest Democratic parts of the district (primarily Reading) were excised and given to other districts and the PVI went from R+4 to a far more daunting R+14. The DCCC immediately wrote it off as an unwinnable seat and Hartman quickly withdrew and was never seen again. Jess King and her grassroots team dug in even harder.



To be fair to the DCCC-- and you know how fair I always am to the DCCC-- the seat is unwinnable for the kind of GOP-lite inauthentic corporate candidates they recruit and support. So, of course, they're completely ignoring Jess' campaign. She lucky to not have them (and their appendages like EMILY's List) threatening to pull funding from her if she doesn't hire their corrupt and incompetent consultants. And with them not butting in and not funding her or helping her in any way, she's actually managed to come close to closing the gap with Smucker.

A new poll released this week by PPP shows PA-11 a single digit race now. Though Trump won the district by 26 points, Smucker is only leading Jess 44-35% with 21% undecided. And when voters are informed about where the two candidates stand on issues, the polling results started changing so pretty drastically that they predict a dead heat within the statistical margin of error!

Smucker’s lead over King nearly vanished when voters were given more information about each candidate. After voters heard that Rep. Smucker refuses to hold town halls and collects corporate PAC money, and heard that King declines all corporate PAC donations, the gap between the two candidates shrunk to a single point – with 19% of voters still undecided.

“Voters have a real hunger for a representative who will stand up to the establishment in both parties,” said Jess King. “Democrats, Republicans, and independents all are looking for someone who will work for the people of Pennsylvania-- not the wealthy special interests who fund my opponent’s campaign.”

“It’s remarkable Jess King has made this race a single-digit contest less than two years after Trump won it by 26 points,” said Jim Williams, a PPP polling analyst. “And Rep. Smucker should be very concerned that-- in such a historically Republican area-- he is close to being underwater on favorability and as many voters want someone new as say he should be re-elected.”

“This race wasn’t seen as competitive six months ago,” said Becca Rast, the campaign manager with Jess King for Congress. “But as more and more voters hear Jess’ story and her vision for an America for all of us, we can see our grassroots campaign gaining a lot of ground very quickly.” Since Jess King began her run last summer, her campaign has hosted 51 public town halls and made over 400,000 phone calls to voters through volunteer-led phone banks. The campaign currently has over 25 volunteer-led teams running grassroots voter outreach operations across Lancaster and Southern York counties.

Besides how attractive Jess' platform is and besides how hard-- and how smart-- she and her campaign staffers are working, there's something else to consider, something Ron Brownstein reported about this week for CNN: There's a suburban tsunami driving 2018. And driving it away from the GOP. (Luckily for the nearly-as-horrible Democrats, there's virtually nowhere else for voters to go other than to the proudly lesser of two evils Democratic Party.) "Converging crises," wrote Brownstein, "are compounding the risk that Republicans could suffer historic 2018 losses in suburban communities that could harden a starkly polarized alignment in American politics. Precisely as sexual abuse allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh threaten to deepen the GOP's already cavernous deficit with well-educated white women, the chaos that erupted with Monday's uncertainty about the fate of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appears likely to compound the concerns of independent voters who want Congress to provide more of a check on President Donald Trump. Even before these developments, Republicans faced a perilous environment in white-collar suburbs rooted in discontent among college-educated white voters, especially women, over Trump's tempestuous style, belligerent language and portions of his agenda. Both the Kavanaugh controversy and the Rosenstein speculation could reinforce two of the central sources of that suburban anxiety: concerns that Trump does not respect either women or the rule of law."

Pennsylvania Doesn't Look Good For The Party Of Trump (fka- The GOP)

Triage-- another one bites, another one bites, another one bites the dust. The NRCC, looking to toss dead-weight overboard, pulled all their remains broadcast ads for incumbent Keith Rothfus in PA-17. Under the newly drawn boundaries the district has an R+3 PVI and Obama would have lost it both times. Trump beat Hillary in those boundaries 49.4% to 46.8%. But district polling shows virtually no path to victory for incumbent Keith Rothfus, a Trump rubber-stamp and enabler at a time when it isn't viable to be a Trump rubber-stamp and enabler. The last public poll of the district, by Monmouth, game Conor Lamb a 12-point lead over Rothfus. A Republican Hill chief of staff told me, on condition of anonymity, that "if they're already pulling the plug on incumbents in R+3 districts that Trump won by 3 points, we are so fucking doomed... I don't want to think about how many seats we're going to lose in Pennsylvania. By Halloween they'll be pulling the plug on Smucker and Perry too.

"I'm glad he raised that question, because it's just where I wanted to take this tonight. Yesterday, the Allentown Morning Call released a statewide poll of likely voters by Muhlenberg College. Here are the top line results:

• With less than two months remaining before the much anticipated 2018 elections Democratic candidates are in strong positions across an array of races within Pennsylvania.
• Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf has retained a solid leads over State Senator Scott Wagner in his bid to win a second term as the Commonwealth’s chief executive, with the Democrat maintaining a 55%-36% lead over his Republican challenger.
• In the United States Senate race in Pennsylvania Democrat incumbent Bob Casey Jr. maintains a substantial 53%-35% lead over his Republican challenger Congressman Lou Barletta.
• In a generic ballot in the midterm congressional elections in Pennsylvania the state’s voters continue to favor Democrats over Republican candidates with 50% of voters preferring the Democrat in their district compared with 39% supporting a Republican.
• President Trump’s job approval among likely voters in the Commonwealth appears to be a drag on Republicans on the November ballot with a majority (55%) disapproving of his performance as President.

Unexpectedly, Trump didn't do badly in Pennsylvania. If Russia monkeyed with voting machines in precincts in a few targeted counties in a few targeted states last cycle, Pennsylvania was certainly one. He beat Hillary 2,970,733 (48.18%) to 2,926,441 (47.46%). Right now Pennsylvania's congressional delegation has 12 Republicans and 6 Democrats. That's going to change very drastically in January when the new Congress is sworn in. My predictions (if the election were held today):

• PA-01 toss-up Brian Fitzpatrick (R)- Scott Wallace (D)
• PA-02 Brendan Boyle (D)
• PA-03 Dwight Evans (D)
• PA-04 Madeleine Dean (D)
• PA-05 Mary Scanlon (D)
• PA-06 Chrissy Houlahan (D)
• PA-07 Susan Wild (D)
• PA-08 Matt Cartwright (D)
• PA-09 Dan Meuser (R)
• PA-10 toss-up Scott Perry (R)- George Scott (D)
• PA-11 toss-up Lloyd Smucker (R)- Jess King (D)
• PA-12 Tom Marino (R)
• PA-13 John Joyce (R)
• PA-14 Guy Reschenthaler (R)
• PA-15 Glenn Thompson (R)
• PA-16 Mike Kelly (R)
• PA-17 Conor Lamb (D)
• PA-18 Mike Doyle (D)

So right nw it looks like 9 Democrats and 6 Republicans plus 3 toss-ups, one in blue-leaning territory, which I'm tempted to say Democrat Scott Wallace can win and two in red territory that may well split-- Jess King (D) and Scott Perry (R). These are the statewide generic congressional results:

This Week's New Campaign Ads

Paul Ryan's Adelson-funded SuperPAC is running the dirtiest and most personal smear campaign in history. The goal is to disgust independent voters and turn them off from voting. Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to stick to issues but are being distracted defending against Ryan's attempt to smear them. Ryan is pounding Randy Bryce especially hard in his own district (which he's retiring from). He knows the key to election is independent voters, who are leaning strongly away from the GOP. The Ryan PAC has spent $1.5 million on ads attacking Randy for a record of arrests (driving while intoxicated, smoking pot, protesting Scott Walker's anti-union legislation...). Randy responded this week by looking straight into the camera and taking responsibility (above). Ryan's PAC then recruited Bryce's right-wing, hate-filled jealous brother to denounce him as a cop hater, setting off a fire storm that back fired on Ryan's hand-picked candidate, Bryan Steil.

If you'd like to help the candidates on this page keep these ads on TV, please consider clicking on this link and contributing what you can. Every little bit helps.

Yesterday Elizabeth Warren told her supporters exactly what I've been saying all week-- in her words, that "Republicans are scared to face the voters this November. So they’re calling in the cavalry-- asking their biggest donors to sling the filthiest mud against some of our strongest Democratic candidates. Paul Ryan’s pet Super PAC is flooding the airwaves with false attacks-- and in some cases dog-whistle garbage-- in districts that will help decide whether Democrats win back the House." She suggested contributing to some of the candidates being smeared by Ryan's machine, particularly Katie. I would add Randy Bryce, Kara Eastman and Jared Golden to that list as well, all of whose campaigns can be found by clicking on the 2018 congressional Blue America thermometer on the right. How about contributing to the candidate whose video you like the best and would like to see on the air the most?

In Maine, Ryan's PAC seems obsessed with Jared Golden's tattoos-- which his frontline unit members all got after fighting in Afghanistan (while Republican Bruce Poliquin was working on Wall Street to loot workers' pension funds). The DCCC responded in kind on behalf of Jared with a blistering ad that hits Poliquin on his biggest weaknesses:



So far Kara Eastman isn't getting any DCCC help-- so she went after Don Bacon, her Trump-enabling Republican opponent, herself, and totally on the issues Omaha voters are interested in. She's basically ignoring the ads Paul Ryan's PAC is running against her that accuse her of being in a punk rock band when she was in college. This one, at least to me appears to be a lot lmore effective than that:



Same with Jess King-- no DCCC help (and none on the horizon)-- so she went after... the establishment on her own. This is one of the best ads of the cycle. Jess is a progressive grassroots candidate in southern Pennsylvania and she owes nothing to either party and in this brand new ad says what so many Americans feel: "Both the Republican and Democratic Party establishments have failed to stand up to the special interests. While working people are getting left behind, leaders in both parties keep stacking the deck against us... We deserve a Representatibve who shares our values and who's willing to stand up to the political establishment in DC." This is a very appealing ad and will probably be extremely effective in a district like PA-11.



Ammar Campa-Najjar's newest ad was made for Fox viewers and uses Fox anchors to get his message out! It's an effective and ballsy concept. He goes right after Drunken Hunter's defense of his indefensible criminal activities-- and right to his core base of supporters. Since the indictments were made public, Ammar has caught up with Hunter in polling and this ad should help change a dead even 46-46% tie into a lead-- even in this very red R+11 congressional district east of San Diego:



Katie Porter is being inundated with negative ads from Paul Ryan's PAC. They even "accused" her of having gone to Harvard, probably a stupid accusation to make in a well-off, highly educated district where people admire educational achievement. She's sticking to the issues in her new ad-- while letting voters know the difference between where she stands and where her Trump rubber stamp opponent, Mimi Walters, stands. Walters has a voting record and it's completely out of step with the district she doesn't even live in.



Lisa Brown is also getting pounded by Paul Ryan's SuperPAC which is desperately trying to save Trump enabler Cathy McMorris Rodgers in eastern Washington. Her brand new ad is persuasive as it contrasts McMorris Rodgers' actual voting record against healthcare with the top plank in Lisa's campaign. This is one of the top battle-ground races in the country and among the top 5 races when it comes to punishing the GOP for their massive overreach.



Mike Siegel's ad contrasts a so-called "safe" gerrymandered district, with the safety-- the lack of safety to be more precise-- of the people who live in it. It's an expensive ad to run in two very high-priced media markets (Austin and Houston) and Mike can really use some help putting together two effective ad buys. Give him a hand here. 



Dayna Steele, like Mike Siegel, is also running in Texas. His district starts in the suburbs west of Houston. Hers is on the other side of the sprawling city. TX-36 voters know Dayna because she was the most popular rock dj on K-101 for years. Instead of a new TV ad, take a look at the trailer for a 6-part docu-series in which a film crew follows Dayna on the campaign trail, Dayna Steele: Rock the 36th. From the movie company's press release:

Dayna Steele is sick and tired of being told she can't do something. As Houston's "first lady of rock and roll" during the 70's, 80's and 90's, Dayna introduced a whole generation to the music of legends like Boston, Joan Jett and Melissa Etheridge on Rock 101 KLOL. Her fans, known as “Steeleworkers,” never forgot her influence on their lives. In 2016, Dayna was looking forward to retiring with her husband, a pilot for NASA, and spending the rest of her days on the golf course. But the presidential elections in November of that year changed her mind and put her on a different course.

The wife of a first-generation Cuban-American and the mother of an LGBTQ son, Dayna felt she had to do something to fight the resurgence of homophobia and xenophobia in the country she loves. On May 31, 2017, Dayna Steele announced her candidacy for the 36th Congressional District in the State of Texas. Running as a Democrat in one of the reddest districts in a traditionally red state, Dayna knows this campaign will be a hard fight as she goes up against an incumbent who once notoriously said, “Sometimes a lady needs to be told when she’s being nasty.” With the future of the country on the line, Dayna is one nasty woman who is ready to fight for the people of her district. Her campaign motto says it all… Healthcare + Education = Jobs

I know it looks like a dead screen, but just click on it; it comes to life-- bigly:

Elbow Grease And Winning In A Red District-- Meet Jess King

It's not easy getting Jess King on the phone. It's not easy getting her campaign manager on the phone either. Every time I try-- morning, midday, evening-- they're out working their sprawling Pennsylvania district. The newly created 11th district, which no longer has Adams County or the nice blue parts of Harrisburg and Reading it once had is going to take the kind of work that few campaigns want to undertake. The district moved east and is now basically York and Lancaster counties. When Vox tried explaining the changes to Pennsylvania's congressional map, it was mostly good news... mostly. "All in all, Andrew Prokop wrote, "that makes six Republican-held seats that suddenly have a more Democratic electorate-- with the open seats held by Meehan and Dent, and the seats currently held by Costello and Rothfus, suddenly growing much more likely to flip. However, there’s also one notable change the other way, as Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R) moves from a lean Trump district to a solidly Republican one (the new 11th District)." Some of the blue parts of the district were merged with Mike Kelly's old 3rd district (very red) to former the new 10th (still red, but kind of purple). It left Jess with an even redder district. The first result was that the corporate Democrat the DCCC and EMILY's List were backing jumped ship as soon as she saw the new boundaries and left Jess without a primary opponent. The second result was that Jess and her team, already working hard, realized they had to work even harder-- hard to imagine when they were already working harder than anyone else in the country.

Yesterday, The Intercept published a piece by Ryan Grim on Jess' campaign, Real Resistance, which he introduces as "one of the most innovative Democratic House campaigns in the country."

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, is what might be called Trump Country. The region, rural and deeply religious, went solidly for Republicans in 2016, as it had consistently in years past.

...The King campaign is playing to win, but along the way, it’s making a broader impact-- advancing progressive issues and aiding like-minded local candidates.

Last November, Democrats picked up seats all across the state, but the party did particularly well near King’s district. In Lancaster City, Democrats swept the council, winning all four seats with a historically diverse slate of relatively progressive candidates. The city, which is 30 percent Puerto Rican and host to many displaced by Hurricane Maria, also elected its first Puerto Rican member of the school board, Salina Almanzar. (The King campaign has a paid staffer specifically dedicated to organizing, registering, and turning out low-propensity voters in Lancaster City, many of whom are Latinos and African-Americans in the majority-minority city.)

...“The way the Democratic Party has tended to run races is show up at reliable voters’ doors, and that means that the south end of the city has historically gotten neglected, and we want to be part of changing that,” Jonathan Smucker said. (In classic Lancaster fashion, yes, Jonathan and GOP Rep. Lloyd Smucker are related.)

“We’re making sure that we’re elevating issues that don’t just matter to people in more affluent parts of town,” Smucker said. “And I think that any time a group does that, there’s some initial skepticism, which I think is deserved. But I think when you are not afraid of walking on eggshells … when you have some humility, and when you stick with it and you keep showing up, people take notice after a while. And I think that’s part of what happened with these two fights.”

While most campaigns outsource their policy, communications, digital, and even field programs to Washington-based consultants, King is doing it in-house with local staff.

Becca Rast, King’s campaign manager, organized her high school to march against the Iraq War with help from Smucker, who at the time was the national field organizer for the War Resistedrs League. Rast’s teenage co-organizer, Nick Martin, is now the King campaign’s field director.

Smucker has been politically active since he was a high school student in the 1990s. He was one of the leading forces behind the anti-globalization protest known as A16 in 2000. He’s been an organizer ever since, and authored the book Hegemony How-To: A Roadmap for Radicals

.

...Leaders of both the campaign and LSU [Lancaster Stands Up] separately argued that the way to break through in a place like Lancaster was to lead with strong, progressive values, but not get bogged down in lefty jargon. “There’s a lot of people out there across the political spectrum that are saying they’re going to vote for us that might not agree with us on every single issue, but are willing to make the commitment to do it because they believe that Jess is an honest person, or they like that she doesn’t take any corporate money, or they like that she holds town halls-- just agree with her values. And sometimes they agree on her policy, too-- like on ‘Medicare for All,’ that’s [supported] across the spectrum,” said Martin.

Jess chats with volunteers before heading out to help canvass door-to-door 

Both in Washington and around Pennsylvania, said Rast, party operatives are starting to notice. “We’re really running the best field operation in the state, and the most robust kind of community outreach program in general, and that’s acknowledged. People do see the work that we’re doing. I think there’s a lot of people who question if it’s the right investment. And I think just from day one, Jess and I have been clear that if we’re not going to be out there talking to people then why are we running this campaign?”

...The campaign runs something they call Jess Camp, which is consciously patterned after Camp Obama, a training ground for organizers. “I just have this vision, or this picture, of the muscle of civic engagement being exercised and strengthened as they go through that,” King said.

The flexing of that muscle has the potential to redefine what’s possible for Democrats. For years, the party has treated its members as cattle to milk for donations and then herd to the polls come Election Day. Earlier this month, House Majority PAC, a super PAC linked with the DCCC, emailed out a survey to its members. Its money question, after asking if the voter wanted to see Democrats take over the House: “Do you know the best thing you can do is donate to organizations such as House Majority PAC?”

As her nearly million-dollar fundraising haul suggests, King doesn’t overlook the importance of a war chest, but she doesn’t tell supporters that giving is the most important thing they can do. Tapping voters for money is like fracking. Dig enough holes and you can squeeze out what you want. But the toxic approach leaves a desiccated land behind. The DCCC and its super PAC deal with that problem by buying new emails to replace the ones they churn through, until every hole’s been drilled. But that’s not a sustainable approach.

King’s treats supporters like a renewable resource instead, training volunteers in organizing and then giving them genuine responsibility. She said new volunteers have rarely gained that type of experience with other campaigns. “When I do block walks, canvasses with people and ask if anybody’s done this before, the most common answer-- well, most people haven’t done it before-- the people who say yes, the place where they did it was with Obama,” she said. “There are very few people that say, ‘Yeah, I got totally involved in the Clinton campaign,’ because there just wasn’t a field [program]. It was more of the traditional, D-triple-C, establishment campaign-- and I know people canvassed and worked hard, but it wasn’t quite the same, and it definitely wasn’t doing persuasion, wasn’t trying to have more conversations across political registrations.”

King’s campaign is designed to be a vehicle for the stifled ambitions of the both talented, motivated people who haven’t left Lancaster County, and those who have returned after some time away. Nick Martin, the field director, told me they’ve used an “if you build it, they will come” model.

The misery of modern life, paradoxically, is a benefit to King’s campaign. People are finally starting to talk about “bullshit jobs”-- the title of David Graeber’s new book that zeroes in on the soul-crushing monotony that makes up so much of our professional lives.

Rast said that particularly among retirees, who may be adrift after a life in the workforce, the campaign seems like more than just a volunteer opportunity. In a world devoid of meaning, by standing for something, King’s campaign has given supporters a way to find purpose in their lives.

“Every church that I was involved in, I was children’s ministry, I was youth leader, I was praise team,” Annie Weaver said. “Having left the church was really hard on me. And what I guess I’ve kind of discovered through all of this, is that this just kinda has become my new ministry.”

Before interviewing King in her campaign headquarters in August, I sat in on a meeting with the roughly 20 interns who had organized that weekend’s flurry of town halls. They went over what went right, what went wrong, mapped out the next weekend rush, and made plans to follow up with each of the 600 people who had come out.

“Some of them are 14, 15 years old, still in high school,” King told me afterward. “You never know what that’s going to yield, right? So the vision is that a political campaign is the fastest way to change regional politics, because it’s a container, and it’s a moment, and it’s a finite thing that people can wrap their heads around.”

Like I said, Jesse and her team are running a model campaign. The district is blood red but her opponent is a dud and she's fortunate that the DCCC and their cadre of expensive brain-dead consultants are ignoring the race-- it works in Jess' favor. They won't screw it up-- their only talent-- and she can run her own grassroots strategy. It's a campaign worth investing in. Sure, I can't get them on the phone... but that's OK, because I know they're out working everyday, which is the best thing I could hope for. The thermometer on the right goes to a page for progressive candidates who, like Jesse, have won their primaries but who the DCCC has basically abandoned. These are the candidates that need the help the most. None of them are in "impossible" districts, just... challenging ones. Jess King and her crew know how to overcome those challenges and they're worth investing in. Click on that ActBlue thermometer and give what you feel comfortable parting with. It's for the good of the country. What could be sweeter than winning in a red district without owing the DCCC or the party establishment anything at all?When Jess goes to Washington, she'll owe that to the voters in York and Lancaster counties, not to Pelosi, Hoyer, EMILY's List, the DCCC, the DNC or anyone else.

Medicare-- Progressives Want It To Be Available For Everyone; Republicans Want To Cut It Back So They Can Afford More Tax Cuts For The Rich

First the bad new-- courtesy of Newsweek-- Marco Rubio admited that the Republican tax cut plan, which benefits corporations and the wealthy, will require cuts to Social Security and Medicare to pay for it.

To address the federal deficit, which will grow by at least $1 trillion if the tax plan passes, Congress will need to cut entitlement programs such as Social Security, Rubio told reporters this week. Advocates for the elderly and the poor have warned that entitlement programs would be on the chopping block, but this is the first time a prominent Republican has backed their claims.

...Rubio's talk of structural change is vague but will likely include changing the rate and age of Social Security and Medicare payouts.

Republicans have long said that the growth generated from slashing corporate tax rates from 35 percent to 20 percent would make their tax cuts "revenue neutral," but there's no evidence they're right. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate tax plan would increase the U.S. deficit by $1.4 trillion over the next decade, and the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation has said the plan will boost economic growth by only 0.8 percent over the next decade, leaving $1 billion in cuts unpaid for.

So where does that money come from?

The simple answer is Social Security and Medicare, which together make up 38 percent of the total federal budget, second only to military spending.

Other key Republicans have hinted that after the tax bill passes they’ll take on welfare and entitlement programs. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) said that he wants Republicans to reduce spending on government programs in 2018. Last month, President Donald Trump said that welfare reform will "take place right after taxes-- very soon, very shortly after taxes."

Senate Finance Committee Chair Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said Thursday that “liberal programs” for the poor were wasting Americans’ money. 

And now the good news. This week, one of Congress' most fervent progressives, Pramila Jayapal, who represents most of Seattle, started a new PAC, The Medicare for All PAC to, in her words, "support candidates and initiatives around the country that share the common conviction that health care is a human right. One of the best ways to ensure health care for all is to use the system that already exists for millions over the last half century: Medicare. It’s time for public officials around the country to stand with the American people, the majority of whom-- according to the latest polling-- believe Medicare For All is the best path forward. Now is the time to improve and expand Medicare to cover all Americans."

Salon interviewed Pramila about the PAC yesterday and she told them that she's "been advocating for a single-payer health care system since the Obamacare days, when I was not in Congress. I think that the Affordable Care Act really provided people with the realization that health care is a right and not a privilege, and I think it's been a huge step forward. But we are now at a place where the momentum is really strong across the country to have a real transformation of the system and to move to a Medicare for All system." This is the exact opposite of what the GOP is trying to do. Who's side are the American people on? It isn't even close:

"I'm a proud progressive, obviously. I'm the first vice chair of the progressive caucus," Jayapal explained. "But I think Medicare for All actually should be called a centrist idea. It's an idea that has been adopted by every industrialized nation in the world. It is an idea that serves the center of the country, if you really think about what 'centrist' should mean. It shouldn't be one fulcrum over on the edge of a ruler, it should be right in the center. And to me, that's what a universal health care system is. I believe it is an idea whose time is past due, and if we have a Blue Wave we are bringing in many candidates who have embraced this."

Jayapal also made it clear that the success of any Medicare for All bill will depend on Democrats winning control of the House. So long as they are in charge of that legislative chamber, she asserted, such a bill will never even reach a vote, let alone prevail.

76 members of Congress are listed as co-founders of the PAC. I asked some of the candidates likely to win seats in November if they would sign on and work with Pramila on this. Jesse King, running one of the most grassroots-oriented campaigns anywhere in the country told us that when she's elected to represent her Pennsylvania district she "would be excited to join the Medicare-For-All caucus. We need to pass Medicare-for-All and ensure that every American, no matter how rich or poor, has access to medical care. During my 20+ years of work in economic development, I saw again and again how our current system of privatized healthcare stifles innovation and entrepreneurship. The high cost and volatility of healthcare keeps would-be entrepreneurs tethered to employer-sponsored healthcare and pushes some small business owners to close up shop and work for someone else-- just because folks can’t live without health insurance. Guaranteeing quality healthcare to all Americans is both morally right and fiscally pragmatic."

Once the new Congress is sworn in, I expect a lot more members in the Medicare for All Caucus. Aside from conveners Pramila, Keith Ellison (MN) and Debbie Dingell (MI), these are the members so far:

Karen Bass (CA)
Joyce Beatty (OH)
Don Beyer (VA)
Earl Blumenauer (OR)
Suzanne Bonamici (OR)
Brendan Boyle (PA)
Anthony Brown (MD)
Andre Carson (IN)
Kathy Castor (FL)
Judy Chu (CA)
David Cicilline (RI)
Katherine Clark (MA)
Yvette Clarke (NY)
Lacy Clay (MO)
Steve Cohen (TN)
Pete DeFazio (OR)
Nanette Diaz Barragán (CA)
Mike Doyle (PA)
Eliot Engel (NY)
Adriano Espaillat (NY)
Dwight Evans (PA)
Lois Frankel (FL)
Marcia Fudge (OH)
Tulsi Gabbard (HI)
Ruben Gallego (AZ)
John Garamendi (CA)
Jimmy Gomez (CA)
Vicente Gonzalez (TX)
Al Green (TX)
Raúl Grijalva (AZ)
Alcee Hastings (FL)
Brian Higgins (NY)
Eleanor Holmes Norton (DC)
Jared Huffman (CA)
Hank Johnson (GA)
Robin Kelly (IL)
Ro Khanna (CA)
Brenda Lawrence (MI)
Barbara Lee (CA)
John Lewis (GA)
Ted Lieu (CA)
Zoe Lofgren (CA)
Alan Lowenthal (CA)
Carolyn Maloney (NY)
Jim McGovern (MA)
Jerry McNerney (CA)
Grace Meng (NY)
Jerrold Nadler (NY)
Grace Napolitano (CA)
Richard Nolan (MN)
Chellie Pingree (ME)
Mark Pocan (WI)
Jared Polis (CO)
Jamie Raskin (MD)
Lucille Roybal-Allard (CA)
Tim Ryan (OH)
Jan Schakowsky (IL)
Bobby Scott (VA)
Jose Serrano (NY)
Albio Sires (NJ)
Adam Smith (WA)
Darren Soto (FL)
Mark Takano (CA)
Dina Titus (NV)
Paul Tonko (NY)
Marc Veasey (TX)
Nydia Velázquez (NY)
Maxine Waters (CA)
Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ)
Peter Welch (VT)
Frederica Wilson (FL)
John Yarmuth (KY)

Is your own member of Congress missing? Call them or write them and ask them why. Pelosi should be thinking about all these members before she goes forward with her crazy PAY-GO scheme, although I suppose if she loses 70 of so Democrats it'll be easy as pie to pick up enough Republicans to pass it, since it's a Republican plan anyway.