Greg Orman-- Better Than Pat Roberts… But He's No Rick Weiland Or Shenna Bellows

Several Democratic Party partisans, who apparently don't understand what Blue America is all about, have been pestering me to add Kansas independent, Greg Orman, to our Senate page. That's never going to happen. We prefer an independent to a garden variety Democrat any day of the week or any minute of any day-- but independents like Bernie Sanders who represent independence not just from the 2 corrupt DC party establishments, but independence of mind when it comes to the interests of the 99%. The two most independent Senate candidates running this year are Shenna Bellows, the progressive running against Beltway Insider Susan Collins for the Maine seat, and South Dakota prairie populist Rick Weiland who is being opposed by both party bosses, Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid.

Neither Bellows nor Weiland is a fence straddler like Orman. There doesn't seem anything "independent" about him except that he's had the good sense to not join either wretched political party. But when it comes to who he really is… mostly he's trying to get into the Senate without letting anyone know. We know what he's not-- a member of the GOP or a member of the Democratic Party. But we don't really know where he stands on the important issues-- because he doesn't want Kansas voters to know. He's probably counting on voters to say to themselves, "Pat Roberts is a know quantity and he just sucks; let's try this mysterious rich guy… he couldn't be any worse."

The mysterious rich guy who has never held elective office is said to have a net worth in the $80 million range and he did it through financial gambling (Denali Partners) and is close with convicted finance criminal Rajat Gupta (formerly of Golman Sachs, currently of the Otisville Federal Prison). He was a member of the Young Republicans at Princeton University, worked for the George Bush the First campaign and writes on his campaign site that "One of my heroes as a child was Ronald Reagan." He has been a member of both the GOP and the Democrats at one time or another. This year he said "I’ve tried both parties; and, like most Kansans, I’ve been disappointed." More than being with one party organization or another, he seems to be an austerity advocate and backs whichever party is espousing that as policy. In 2008 he almost ran against Pat Roberts as a Democrat… almost. He dropped out of the primary. He has a pretty thorough issues page on his website and he's better than Roberts on every single issue without any exception. Example: Roberts has a ProgressivePunch lifetime crucial vote score of zero on family planning-- a zero on abortion and a zero on availability of contraceptives. He's a doctrinaire right-wing zombie when it comes to all issues involving women and women's health. This is what Orman had to say about it:

We’ve spent a lot of time over the last two decades debating whether or not women should have the right to make decisions about their own reproductive health. As a man, I’ll never have to face some of the decisions that women have to make. I know the women of Kansas are smart, and I trust them to make their own decisions about their reproductive health.

I believe it’s time for our government to move past this issue and start focusing on other important issues, such as healthcare and higher education affordability,tax code simplification,and fixing our broken immigration system.

Not the answer I would give-- but people who would give answers like mine would have no chance to win a Senate seat in a red state like Kansas. Orman wants to win, so he's holding back a bit-- but not entirely. You come away from reading his positions convinced he's a solid middle-of-the-road kind of guy, sort of an Eisenhower Republican or Clinton Democrat. Not what we're looking for at Blue America, but possibly exactly what Kansas voters sick of right-wing extremism are looking for. Yesterday Dylan Scott, writing for TPM, asked what exactly Democrats think they're getting by backing Orman. And he doesn't just mean Kansas Democrats. The Party Machine in DC is betting on him as well-- big.

Orman's tight-rope walk on Obamacare is emblematic of his overall approach. The Associated Press reported earlier this month that Orman said he would have opposed the health care reform law-- but he also said the Republican pledges to repeal it were impractical.

"It sounds like a hollow political promise they can't keep," he told the AP.

A look at Orman's issues page on his campaign website shows that he takes a similiarly nuanced approach to contentious issues like immigration and gun control.

In discussing illegal immigration, he starts with tough talk on border security-- and Republicans have always said that that should be the first priority.

"By tough, I mean we need to secure our borders," he says. "It’s something that we’ve been working on, but we’re not there yet."

But eventually, Orman endorses a path to citizenship-- which has been a line in the sand for most Democrats on the issue.

"The 11 million undocumented individuals in America should be required to register with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) by a certain date, pay a fine or perform community service as an acknowledgment that they’ve broken the law, hold down a job, pay taxes, and obey our laws," he says, "and ultimately, at that point, if they want to get in line and apply for citizenship, they should be able to do so."

He follows the same tack on gun control. He starts by saying that he owns two handguns and states that he has a strong belief in Second Amendment rights.

But Orman then notes that he had to go through a background check to purchase them-- and expresses support for requiring the same, including for purchases at gun shows, which has been a sticking point in the gun control debate.

"While there are likely other illegal ways for criminals to get firearms, we shouldn’t make it easy for a violent offender or a mentally ill individual to get a gun," he says. "The process for me took a few minutes and ultimately resulted in me being able to buy my handguns without delay."

Then on other issues like abortion and campaign finance reform, Orman stakes out the more explicitly Democratic position. He says that he would vote for a constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United, as Senate Democrats did this month, and that he supports a woman's right to choose.

"I believe it’s time for our government to move past this issue and start focusing on other important issues," he says on the latter, "such as healthcare and higher education affordability, tax code simplification, and fixing our broken immigration system."

Despite all this apparent ideological alignment, Democrats are never going to publicly side with Orman. That would be the kiss of death after the independent label has gotten him this far.

"That would really run counter to his message," Chapman Rackaway, a political scientist at Fort Hays State University, told TPM earlier this month. "You'd see his numbers plummet. That's easy opposition material for Roberts."

I'd rather see him win than Roberts. But when it comes to investing time and resources, we'll be sticking with Shenna Bellows and Rick Weiland. You should too.

The Worst Republican? Yes, There's A Worst

This morning I saw a tweet by Noam Scheiber that got my attention: "The worst Republican in America may be about to lose office." The worst? Forget for a minute that whoever it is may lose, how does anyone sort out the racists, fascists, corporate whores and psychopaths who are the core of GOP officialdom to come up with just one "worst Republican?" Ted Cruz isn't up for reelection. That rapist doctor is Tennessee, Scott DesJarlais already won his seat. Deranged sociopath Paul Broun isn't running again and his off-the-shelf replacement, Hate Talk radio host Jody Hice hasn't been elected yet-- neither has similar crackpot Mark Walker in North Carolina. I had no choice but to click the link-- which led to a an excellent article by John Judis in the New Republic, crowning Kansas Secretary of State, Kris Kobach, Miss America's Evil Twin.

In the video up top, Rachel Maddow summarized the latest events in the unlikely horserace the Kansas Senate race has turned into. That's the background to Judis' story on Kobach's inept, hyper-partisan handling of his job as Secretary of State. But the big story isn't just about Pat Roberts losing his Senate seat to Independent Greg Orman. Kobach himself, a notorious racist and Know Nothing zealot, is also on the ballot.

Kobach is running for re-election against Republican-turned-Democrat Jean Schodorf. Ordinarily, a race like this would be irrelevant in national politics, but Kobach is a crusader against illegal immigrants—and, by extension, most immigrants not of European extraction—and has used a minor state office to rewrite Kansas’s voting laws. He has long been associated with the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), an organization founded by a proponent of eugenics and population control and funded in part by the Pioneer Fund, an organization founded to promote “race betterment.” He is also quite effective, and even brilliant, at what he does.

Kobach, who is now 48, grew up in Topeka. He went to Harvard, where he studied under Samuel Huntington, who at the end of a long and glorious career, had become obsessed himself with the threat that immigrants from the south posed to American civilization. Kobach wrote a prize-winning senior thesis on the efforts during the apartheid era of South African business to evade the effects of sanctions. He got a law degree from Yale and returned to Kansas where he practiced law in Kansas City and taught law at the University of Missouri in Kansas City.

In 2001, he joined the Bush administration, first as a White House fellow and then as an aide to Attorney General John Ashcroft, where he helped devise the national security visa system that required Muslims and Middle Easterners to register and be finger-printed. (It was suspended in 2011 because it had proved both ineffective and discriminatory.) In 2003, he returned to Kansas City, where he ran for Congress against Democratic incumbent Dennis Moore. He called for keeping out illegal immigrants and making English America’s official language. He lost, but six years later ran for secretary of state on a platform of preventing immigrant voter fraud.

In the meantime, Kobach had become the senior counsel for FAIR’s legal arm, the Immigration Reform Law Institute. He remains today their senior counsel. With FAIR, Kobach helped write Arizona’s highly discriminatory immigration law, which required police to demand proof of citizenship from anyone they suspected of being in the country illegally and advised other states, including Alabama, that have passed similar legislation. He also filed suit to prevent Kansas, Nebraska, and California from offering in-state college tuition to the children of undocumented immigrants, and he has defended laws in Nebraska, Texas, and Pennsylvania that would make it illegal to rent to undocumented immigrants.

In his 2010 campaign for secretary of state, he promised to stamp out voter fraud. (Kobach has been able to come up with one case-- from 1997-- that involved fraud by an undocumented immigrant.) After Kobach was elected, he got the Kansas legislature to pass and Governor Sam Brownback to sign a law that allowed him to rewrite the state’s election registration laws. Kobach adopted rules requiring all new registrants to show documented proof of citizenship to obtain Kansas registration. At the polls, all registered voters had to show photo identification.

In the run-up to this year’s election, Kobach was able to disqualify almost 20,000 new registrants because they hadn’t proven their citizenship. These had to include many people (including a 92-year-old woman who appealed her denial) who for one reason or another didn’t have passports or birth certificates on hand. Kobach’s ruling created a weird two-tier system, where Kansans who had national voter registration, which only requires a registrant to swear that he or she is a citizen, could vote in congressional or senate selections, but unless they had a Kansas voter registration, which requires proof of citizenship, could not vote in a state or local race.

There are, of course, anti-immigration nuts who don’t care about any other issues or about politics in general, but Kobach is also an avid partisan who was chairman of the Kansas Republican Party. His rulings on voter registration appear equally designed to help Republicans and to eliminate an alien presence in American life. His attempt to keep Taylor on the ballot-- and his subsequent threat to force the Democrats to replace him on the ballot-- reflects a diehard partisanship that shows little concern for legal niceties. In 2012, he even justified an attempt to keep Obama off the Kansas ballot on the grounds he had not proved his citizenship. And he is also a hardline rightwinger on the welfare state (he wants to remove Kansas entirely from the purview of the Affordable Care Act) and on guns, championing a law that has made guns produced in Kansas not subject to federal regulation. (He is a shareholder in a new Kansas gun firm aptly called Minuteman Defense.)

Kobach is running again on his attempt to stamp out voter fraud, and enjoys the enthusiastic support of anti-Obama stalwart Ted Nugent. “The Leftists and commies are working overtime to defeat him in this year’s election,” Nugent warned. Kobach’s opponent, Schodorf, is a former Republican state senator who was ousted in the 2010 primary by a more conservative challenger backed by Brownback and the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity and Kansas Chamber of Commerce. She switched parties to run against Kobach.  Schodorf has never run statewide before, and faces a two-to-one Republican edge in registration in a race that voters don't normally pay attention to, but she has been running even in the polls and could benefit from the snafu over keeping Taylor on the ballot.

If Schodorf does win, it will be a victory for American democracy and not simply the Democratic Party. Kobach is that bad. To be sure, there has always been a case to be made for better controlling American borders and for discouraging entry by undocumented workers, but Kobach’s position, like that of FAIR, edges into the dark corners of nativism. And his attempt to manipulate state election laws is quite simply an attempt to subvert the democratic process. Here’s to his defeat and banishment from elected office.

And… Maddow's weird Kobach update from last night (in which, among other things, she compared Kobach to a "Family Values" GOP hypocrite who gets caught in bed with a  goat-- "a boy goat":

Could November Prove To Be A Wipeout For Kansas Republican Extremists?

Kansas has been nearly a one party state for a very long time. Ravaged by the Republican Party's Great Depression, Kansans voted for Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 (against Hoover) and in 1936 (against Alf Landon, their former governor). After that they went back to their innate conservatism, backing Wendell Willkie against Roosevelt in 1940 and Thomas Dewey against Roosevelt in 1944. There have been 17 presidential elections since then and the only time Kansas voted for a Democrats was in 1964 when they backed LBJ over Goldwater 54.09- 45.06. In 2012 Kansas was one of the only states that failed to give President Obama even 40% of the vote, the rest being primarily bastions of vicious and sick racism. Since 1900 Kansas has elected exactly two Democrats, William Thompson in 1913 (one term) and George McGill in a 1930 special election to replace a Republican. who died in office. Chances are, the only Kansas senators you've ever known of were Republican James Pearson (1962-1978), Republican Bob Dole (1969-1996), Republican Nancy Kassebaum (1978-1997), Republican Sam Brownback (1996-2011), Republican Pat Roberts (current) and Republican Jerry Moran (current). No one imagined that in what's shaping up to be a very Republican year, Kansas might throw out the current Republican, a very senile 78 year old Pat Roberts. And not just Roberts. Kansans may not be ready to embrace Obama but the Koch-owned state has come to realize that the GOP has been absolutely toxic for them.

The state has a lopsided Republican legislature-- 31 Republicans and 9 Democrats in the state Senate and 90 Republicans and 35 Democrats in the House. And it's not all gerrymandering. 790,345 (44.6%) of the voters are registered Republicans and only 446,237 (25.2%) are Democrats-- significantly less than Independents. But then along came Governor Brownback to turn the state into a laboratory for crackpot, extreme right-wing theories.

Brownback's tax cut proposal came as Kansas's revenues were on an upswing. Spending cuts and a one-cent sales tax passed by Brownback's Democratic predecessor had combined with economic growth to give Kansas a surplus. Now, Brownback argued, his tax cuts would lead to even more success. "I firmly believe these reforms will set the stage for strong economic growth in Kansas," he said. The governor proposed to cut income taxes on the state's highest earners from 6.45 percent to 4.9 percent, to simplify tax brackets, and to eliminate state income taxes on most small business income entirely. In a nod to fiscal responsibility, though, he proposed to end several tax deductions and exemptions, including the well-liked home mortgage interest deduction. This would help pay for the cuts. Yet as the bill went through the state Senate, these deductions proved too popular, and legislators voted to keep them all. The bill's estimated price tag rose from about $105 million to $800 million, but Brownback kept supporting it anyway. "I'm gonna sign this bill, I'm excited about the prospects for it, and I'm very thankful for how God has blessed our state," he said.

Democrats, and some Republicans, weren't buying it. "It bankrupts the state within two years," said Rochelle Chronister, a former state GOP chair who helped organize moderate Republicans against Brownback's agenda. And the House Democratic leader, Paul Davis, laid down a marker. "There is no feasible way that private-sector growth can accommodate the price tag of this tax cut," he said. "Our $600 million surplus will become a $2.5 billion deficit within just five years." In return, Brownback's administration claimed the bill would create 23,000 jobs by 2020, and would lead 35,000 more people to move to Kansas.

After the cuts became law, it was undisputed that Kansas's revenue collections would fall. But some supply-side analysts, like economist Arthur Laffer, argued that increased economic growth would deliver more revenue that would help cushion this impact.

Yet it's now clear that the revenue shortfalls are much worse than expected. "State general fund revenue is down over $700 million from last year," Duane Goossen, a former state budget director, told me. "That's a bigger drop than the state had in the whole three years of the recession," he said-- and it's a huge chunk of the state's $6 billion budget. Goossen added that the Kansas's surplus, which had been replenished since the recession, "is now being spent at an alarming, amazing rate."

Kansas has to balance its budget every year, so when that surplus runs out, further spending cuts will be necessary. The declining revenues have necessitated extensive cuts in state education funding, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Moody's cut of the state's bond rating this May was another embarrassment. And the economic benefits Brownback promised haven't materialized either. Chris Ingraham wrote at Wonkblog that Kansas's job growth has lagged behind the rest of the country, "especially in the years following the first round of Brownback tax cuts."

…Brownback's approval rating has plummeted-- in a recent poll by PPP, his 33 percent was actually lower than Barack Obama's 34 percent approval. This is good news for state House Democratic leader Paul Davis, who announced his run for governor last September. "I'm profoundly troubled by the direction our state has been heading over the past three years," he said in his first campaign email. "The wealthiest and well connected have gotten all the breaks, and the Kansas economy feels broken." In the most recent poll of the race, Davis leads Brownback by 6 points.

Yesterday, the first public poll in Kansas was reported since Democrat Chad Taylor dropped out of the race, leaving Roberts to face Independent Greg Orman. The top 3 Republicans on the ballot, Pat Roberts, Sam Brownback and the neo-fascist Secretary of State Chris Kobach are all losing.

As of today, 09/08/14, about 7 in 10 Kansas likely voters are aware that Democrat Chad Taylor has withdrawn from the race, with a formal request that his name be taken off the ballot. About 6 in 10 Kansas likely voters are aware that Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a Republican in his own tight-fight for re-election (more on that in a moment), has inserted himself into the fray and refuses to remove Democrat Taylor from the ballot. That creates a nightmare for state and national party officials, for Kansas voters, and for public opinion pollsters. At this hour, subject to possible lawsuits and back-room bargains which could further upend the race, Independent Greg Orman and Roberts are effectively tied, 37% for Orman, 36% for Roberts, 10% for Taylor, 6% for Libertarian Randall Batson. The exact wording of the question that SurveyUSA asked respondents is: "If there were an election for US Senate today, and Democrat Chad Taylor's name still appeared on the ballot even though he no longer wants to run, and the other names on the ballot were Republican Pat Roberts, Independent Greg Orman, and Libertarian Randall Batson, who would you vote for?" Orman gets 52% of the Democratic vote, 42% of the independent vote, and 26% of the Republican vote. Roberts holds 59% of the Republican base, and is backed by 11% of Democrats, and 16% of independents. Orman leads among the most educated voters and among the most affluent voters. The contest is effectively tied in Greater Wichita, and effectively tied in greater Kansas City KS. Orman has a slight lead in greater Topeka. Voters focused on the economy back Orman over Roberts 3:2. Voters focused on Obamacare back Roberts over Orman 2:1.

…Kobach's insertion into the Senate contest did nothing, at first blush, to help his own campaign for re-election. 2 weeks ago, KSN-TV and SurveyUSA had Kobach tied with Democratic challenger Jean Schodorf. Today, the contest is still within the theoretical margin of sampling error, but Schodorf now has a nominal 3-point advantage, 46% to 43%. Men don't take kindly to Kobach's interference. 2 weeks ago, Kobach had led by 10 among male likely voters, now by 3. And residents of greater Kansas City KS don't take kindly to Kobach either. In that part of the state, Kobach had been tied with Schodorf, but today the Democrat Schodorf leads by 7.

…Sitting on the sidelines, ostensibly minding his own business, is incumbent Republican Governor Sam Brownback. Brownback could fairly be accused of being, in a "wave-election" year when Republicans are expected to win statehouse and congressional contests coast-to-coast, the falling tide that is sinking all Kansas Republican boats. Brownback was already in trouble long before anyone was worried about Roberts and long before anyone outside of Kansas knew Kobach's name. Now, Brownback is staring at basically the same "upside-down" numbers that he howled about when SurveyUSA released them 2 weeks ago. Today, Brownback is down 7 points to Democratic challenger Paul Davis. The Democratic ticket of Davis and Jill Docking gets 47% today, the Republican ticket of Brownback and Lt. Gov Jeff Colyer gets 40%… Brownback holds 66% of the Republican base and 74% of the conservative vote. Brownback is down 22 points among independents and down 47 points among moderates.