Across America, Just Like In California, The DCCC Has Its Priorities Ass Backwards-- And Is Giving Away The Democratic House Majority

A few days ago I took a look at the 8 California congressional districts with both Republican incumbents and a majority of 2008 voters who went for Obama-- and how the DCCC is blowing the opportunity to win the seats by focusing all their resources on Blue Dog types in red districts outside of California. The DCCC is spending money-- ineptly-- on candidates like Blue Dog Frank Kratovil who have voted against the entire Democratic agenda, from protecting a woman's right to choice, to the healthcare reform bill to equality for all citizens. In fact, Kratovil, whose Progressive Punch score is an abysmal 35.54, has voted more frequently with John Boehner against his own party than all but 4 Democrats! Another Blue Dog, Bobby Bright of Alabama is also a recipient of massive amounts of DCCC aid and not only did he vote more frequently with Boehner than any other Democrat, he actually voted more frequently with Boehner than two conservative Republicans! In fact, when asked if he would vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker if he winds up being reelected, he demurred. “I would prefer a conservative Democrat, a Blue Dog Democrat like myself. If that doesn’t happen, then I will vote for who I think will allow me to represent my constituents the best.”

Another Blue Dog, North Dakota's Earl Pomeroy, is so desperate that he's actually running TV ads touting his close relationship with the President... President Bush!



If you're contributing to the DCCC you're contributing to anti-Choice zealots, any-gay bigots, and Blue Dogs who put Big Business before middle class families, just the way the Republicans do. The alternative to donating to the DCCC is to donate directly to the campaigns of progressive incumbents, like Alan Grayson-- who the DCCC adamantly refuses to help-- or to fiery and unapolgetically progressive challengers like Bill Hedrick and Beth Krom in California, Ann Kuster in New Hampshire, Billy Kennedy in North Carolina, Ed Potosnak in New Jersey, and Justin Coussoule in Ohio. All of them are on the Blue America ActBlue page.

Back to Bobby Bright for a moment. His case-- like so many Blue Dogs'-- is the very opposite of the 8 California Republicans in districts Obama won. Bright's Alabama district isn't too partial to Democrats to begin with... and African-American Democrats? McCain took 63% of the vote in AL-02. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if ole Bobby got this ad-- which comes on top of his jokes about Nancy Pelosi dying and his promise to vote against her for Speaker in January-- approved in advance by the DCCC-- which is either directly or indirectly subsidizing it. Yes, my friends, the DCCC can't find money to help a progressive like Justin Coussoule campaign against John Boehner because they're, in effect, paying for an ad to extol the wonderfulness of John Boehner. Yesterday they dropped another $176,002.00 into this race with a TV ad attacking Bright's opponent, allowing Bright to run his own spots, like the one below. Watch this-- and if you're donated a nickel to the DCCC in the last 4 years, hang your head in shame:



Blue Dog after Blue Dog is trying to hold onto deeply red districts, mostly in the South, where McCain racked up tremendous wins against Obama, like Mike Ross (AR), where McCain scored 58%, Travis Childers (MS), which gave McCain 62% of its vote, and the 3 conservative Arizona so-called Democrats, Harry Mitchell, Ann Kirkpatrick and Gabby Giffords. These and more like them in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Tennessee are the battleground states for the DCCC, while they all but ignore-- mostly ignore-- three dozen districts where Obama beat McCain.

In Wisconsin, for example, there are two districts where Obama bested McCain, the 1st and the 6th, Ryan's and Petri's. In the 1st, the DCCC drove a viable candidate out of the race and replaced her with a sadly nonviable one, who, of course, they are studiously ignoring, despite the fact that Ryan is widely recognized as one of the 3 or 4 most dangerous Republicans in the House-- and the only one in a vulnerable district. His opponent is John Heckenlively, who has raised so little money that he hasn't been required to file an FEC report. He somehow managed to take in $885 through ActBlue (as opposed to Ryan's $2,613,651 haul this year). And that's actually better than what Petri's opponent, Joe Kallas, has taken in (zero on ActBlue and, again, too little to file an FEC report overall). And we're talking about a district that voted for Obama, not for McCain, just 2 years ago. Chris Van Hollen and Debbie Wasserman Schultz are looking forward to big promotions for the great job they've both been doing.

And there are Republican incumbents, basically unchallenged, sitting in seats Obama won, from Frank Wolf and Randy Forbes in Virginia, four in Michigan (Dave Camp, Fred Upton, Thaddeus McCotter and the detestable Mike Rogers and 3 in Illinois (Peter Roskam, Judy Biggert and Don Manzullo) to two each in Florida (Bill Young and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) and New Jersey (Frank LoBiondo and Leonard Lance). Actually in Lance's district, there is a very vigorous neck-and-neck challenge from Blue America-endorsed Ed Potosnak, who would probably win if not for the studied indifference of the DCCC.

The DCCC has made no acknowledgment the Democrats even have a candidate running against the corrupt GOP hack, Lance. Instead of helping solid progressive Ed Potosnak win a race polling within the margin of error (in a district where McCain only managed to take 48% of the vote, the DCCC is pouring money into hopeless races by worthless, cowardly conservatives like Suzanne Kosmas (FL), Frank Kratovil (MD) and Glenn Nye (VA).

In Florida's 24th district Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) trailed state Rep. Sandy Adams by 10 points, according to an NRCC poll that was in the field Sept. 22 and 23. Adams led 49 percent to 39 percent in the survey of 400 likely voters. The poll was conducted by the GOP firm Fabrizio Mclaughlin & Associates and had a 4.9 point margin of error.

...In the Eastern Shore-based 1st district, Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-Md.) trailed state Sen. Andy Harris (R) 39 percent to 43 percent, with 3 percent going to third party candidates. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted by the Republican firm OnMessage Inc. and was in the field Sept. 20 and 21. It had a 4.9 point margin of error.

...In Virginia's 2nd district, Rep. Glenn Nye (D) trailed car dealer Scott Rigell (R) by 5 points. The Congressman took 40 percent to Rigell's 45 percent. Independent Kenny Golden, a former Republican, took 7 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted by the GOP firm Ayres McHenry & Associates Sept 23 to 26 and had a 4.9 point margin of error.

The DCCC will probably wind up wasting over $2,000,000 trying, unsuccessfully, to save the three seats of three incumbents who aren't worth a bucket of spit and whose default position is to always cross the aisle and vote with Boehner, Cantor and Pence. Their ProgressivePunch scores are startling low-- Nye 30.58, Kratovil 35.54, and Kosmas 50.41. One tenth of that money would probably win the New Jersey seat for Potosnak, who would be a sharp, tireless crusader for the values and principles that motivate Democrats (not Inside the Beltway careerist Democrats, real Democrats in America). The D-Trip ain't gonna do squat; Ed is progressive, independent-minded, openly gay and incorruptible-- not exactly traits admired by the Insiders. If you'd like to help, he's the newest endorsed candidate by Blue America.

I just got off the phone with Alliea Phipps, campaign manager for Justin Coussoule. She told me how the Hillary Clinton Legacy PAC, which has endorsed one Democratic House challenger in Ohio-- Justin-- and has fielded a field operation to get out the vote for him, went to the DCCC for some funding. The DCCC turned them down flat, saying they have their own way of defeating Boehner. From what I can tell, their way is to reelect lots of Blue Dogs who support the same conservative ideas Boehner supports. But that will at least keep the Capitol Hill corner offices and best parking spots in Democrat hands. Alliea made a good point-- cloistered away Inside the Beltway, these folks don't know anything about the district. They probably think everyone is a wealthy, tanned golfer 'cause that's all they know about OH-8. But people there are soybean farmers and blue collar workers. "I am extremely frustrated with the DCCC's shortsighted take on beating Boehner," she told me. "For the first time since I can remember, having actively worked in politics since I was about 7 (and I'm nearly 46 now), I can honestly say it defies logic. The 8th District is so removed from John Boehner, golf and his country club lifestyle that it really would not require much effort to take this seat from him if they backed the Army Vet running on their own ticket. What the fuck are they waiting on? An engraved invitation to beat him where it really matters most?"

Unless the engraved invitation came with a stack of hundred dollar bills, I don't think it would do much good. The DCCC isn't looking for progressives and it isn't looking for independent minded champions of working families. And, more than anything, it isn't looking for idealistic Americans who are impervious to the kinds of corruption that make Steny Hoyer's, John Boehner's, Debbie Wasserman Schultz's and Eric Cantor's world go round and round and round. Justin Coussoule and Ed Potosnak aren't the kinds of candidates who will do what they're told by political hacks working for Special Interests. They want to represent their neighbors, not Steny Hoyer's donors. So... when you go over to donate to Ed, think about Justin too!

Blue Dog Hunting-- Primaries vs The General Election

Yesterday Nate Silver jumped head first into what he called political nerdery. Right up my alley. He rated Democrats according to 10 key votes and then ranked them according to how much their districts lean Republican. I wasn't surprised to see embattled progressives like Alan Grayson (D-FL), John Hall (D-NY), Steve Kagen (WI) and Mark Schauer (D-MI) rise to the top of the heap; all three won very tough elections in GOP-dominated districts and have stuck to their progressive beliefs. Nor did it surprise me to see Artur Davis (AL), John Barrow (GA), David Scott (GA), Lipinksi the Younger (TN/IL), Mike McIntyre (NC) among those scraping the bottom of the ratings barrel. We've been warning Democrats about this bunch for years.

But what did startle me was how Nate finds so much admiration for so many Democrats who have been fairly consistent in their aisle crossing-- like Bart Gordon (TN), Ike Skelton (MO), Jim Matheson (UT), Jim Marshall (GA), Chris Carney (PA) and Frank Kratovil (MD). Coincidentally we've been having a discussion at DWT about what to do about Kratovil. Unlike Barrow, who has an excellent progressive primary challenger, Regina Thomas, Kratovil will face a borderline fascist the GOP is putting up against him. And yet Kratovil's record in Congress is hideous. I posted about this-- and him-- at Daily Kos yesterday and got a spirited defense of Kratovil from a Maryland Kosack, oceanstar 17. He makes the point that because of a 2000 gerrymander that dumped every Republican from several districts into MD-1, "Kratovil is the best Democrat who can win there right now."

MD-1 is an R+13 district. It takes in the most conservative exurbs and suburbs of Baltimore and the entire Eastern Shore. There is NO other Democrat who could hold onto that district except for Frank Kratovil. And, should anyone else except for Andy Harris win the GOP nomination, it will be a fight for him to hold on.

I want to compare Barrow, who Blue America is committed to defeating in a primary, and Kratovil, who Doug is considering defeating... period. Barrow is in a Democratic district with a PVI of D+1 and, according to Nate's calculations he hugely underperforms his district. Kratovil actually overperforms his R+13 district (in Nate's world) pretty significantly. I'm not certain how much it matters (to me). Both men are consistently pushing the Democratic caucus rightward and wrecking any chance for something like single-payer to even get onto the table. And when it comes to votes, all Nate's fancy calculations don't hide the fact that both of these creeps, for example, voted against healthcare reform. Barrow voted against choice in a pro-choice district and Kratovil voted for choice (against the Stupak amendment) in a much less safe environment. When the clean energy bill came up for a vote, same thing happened: Barrow was a no and Kratovil, in a far less safe district, took the huge political risk of voting "yes," although it should be noted that Maryland Republicans are notoriously pro-environmental (unlike Georgia Republicans who are absolutely committed to raping and pillaging the earth).

On the other hand, it seems to me that, replacing a reactionary Blue Dog with a progressive or even a real moderate, is a lot better than replacing a reactionary Blue Dog with an even more reactionary Republican. Imagine Regina Thomas working for the interests of working families instead of John Barrow selling his ass to every single K Street lobbyist who waves a check under his snout. Imagine Marcy Winograd rising to a leadership position inside the wussy progressive caucus and helping Grijalva, Edwards and Grayson kick some ass and forge them into a sword of steel, replacing Jane Harman, one of the most dishonest hacks and servants of the Military Industrial Complex on either side of the aisle. Are those kinds of victories enough to send the Democrats a message they'll understand? Or do they have to lose to Republicans? I'll long remember the bloody hatred in Rahm Emanuel's eyes when I sidled up to him at a bar a few days after the Maryland primary and offered to help him get rid of more Al Wynns and replace them with more Donna Edwardses. He got a message alright. He-- not to mention acolytes like Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Patrick Murphy and Chris Van Hollen-- didn't pay it much heed. And that leaves us back at the dilemma. I'm afraid it's going to take us months to reach a conclusion and even then, it's going to be a case by case situation. But that last link above, the one about sending Democrats a message... if you agree with the proposition that we should concentrate-- at least for now-- on replacing Blue Dogs with real Democrats, please consider going in there, lookin' around and maybe leaving a little something.

Will Voter Outrage Add Up To An Anti-Incumbent Massacre? Insiders Don't Think So

Will Blue Dog Frank Kratovil join a band when he's defeated in Nov?

Yesterday John Amato and I had lunch with a senior Democratic congressman, a respected and even beloved progressive who represents a forward-looking city. He's considered a shoe-in for another landslide re-election (he won with 74% of the vote in 2006 and 75% last year while Obama took 71% in his district). But he works on electoral politics as though he actually needed to. He feels keeping his constituents well-informed about issues is integral to leadership. "I can think of over 100 Democrats in the House who haven't broken a sweat in years," he told us ruefully. They just sleep-walk through re-election after re-election and they are utterly out of touch with the voters back home. Many have never cultivated the basic skills to communicate their (or the party's) ideas and values.

Yesterday, Beltway insider Stuart Rothenberg explained why none of this matters and even in a politically turbulent year like this, incumbents can count on being re-elected by rote. Acknowledging that Republicans could have some problems in their primaries-- he singles out Texas secessionist Governor Rick Perry plus likely victims of teabaggers Jan Brewer (AZ), Dan Burton (IN), Bob Bennett (UT) and Bob Inglis (SC)-- and that voters are certainly angry with politicians, he posits that "dissatisfaction with those in charge doesn’t mean that November is likely to be an 'anti-incumbent election.' In fact, it almost certainly won’t."

Non-incumbent Republicans who have the mantle of the establishment are also vulnerable given the current environment.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the state’s GOP Senate nomination, is the most obvious example. He faces a very difficult fight against former state Speaker Marco Rubio, who is running as the insurgent in spite of his previous position.

The same dynamic is taking place in New Hampshire, where conservative Ovide Lamontagne and two businessmen could give former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte a migraine in the Republican Senate primary.

And in Kentucky, Rand Paul, son of Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul (a former presidential candidate), is running as an outsider for the Republican Senate nomination against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the favorite of virtually the entire state and national Republican Party. GOP insiders think that Grayson can win the primary, but they are far from certain about the outcome.

Rothenberg trumpets his non-partisanship and his apologists always say he's not really a Republican shill, just a devotee of the status quo. But that is demonstrably untrue. Like most of the Inside the Beltway establishment, Rothenberg abhors progressives (dirty fucking hippies, to them) and his "analysis" will always swing against them and against Democrats embracing progressivism. Predictably, he predicts doom for Democrats in November. He claims the public mood "currently looks likely to punish Democrats at the ballot box."

He points to polls that show conservative Democrats Baron Hill (Blue Dog-IN), Frank Kratovil (Blue Dog- MD), Blanche Lincoln (AR) and Steve Driehaus (OH) all losing in November, but doesn't mention that their voting records have been overwhelmingly against their own party and that they have managed to disillusion and demoralize the Democratic base by voting like Republicans. Kratovil, for example has only voted with the Democrats 25.76% of the time on substantive issues. The rest of the time, he's been in Boehner's pocket. Why should Democratic voters even think about re-electing him? Just because he has a "D" next to his name? The "D" has been blurred out for the "Blue Dog" and if he hoped to win Republican votes by voting with the GOP on issue after issue, he was naive. Republican Andy Harris led him in a recent poll by an astonishing 13 points. Kratovil's a goner.

A dozen of so Kratovil-like Blue Dogs going down in November will leave the Democratic Party more cohesive, more effective, more able to serve the needs of working families and more progressive. When you hear about likely Republican gains in November, it is overwhelmingly gains they will make against the very "Democrats" who have voted most frequently in lockstep with the GOP, reactionaries like Travis Childers (Blue Dog-MS), Bobby Bright (Blue Dog-AL), Walt Minnick (Blue Dog-ID), Glenn Nye (Blue Dog-VA), Scott Murphy (Blue Dog-NY), Joe Donnelly (Blue Dog-IN), Brad Ellsworth (Blue Dog-IN), Chris Carney (Blue Dog-PA), Kathy Dahlkemper (Blue Dog-PA), Baron Hill (Blue Dog-IN) and Harry Mitchell (Blue Dog-AZ).

Far more productive, though, in this anti-incumbent climate, are the opportunities for replacing reactionary Democrats with actual moderates and progressives in primaries. The new Blue America page, Send Democrats A Message They Can Understand is part of an effort to replace faux-Democrats like Jane Harman (Blue Dog-CA) and John Barrow (Blue Dog-GA) with stalwart fighters for ordinary American working families like Marcy Winograd and Regina Thomas. This is just the kind of national mood where more-of-the-same establishment figures like Lee Fisher (OH), Ed Case (HI), Katrina Swett (NH) and Lori Edwards (FL) will stand no chance against an anti-establishment mood. It's the perfect opportunity for real representatives of working families like Jennifer Brunner, Colleen Hanabusa, Ann Kuster and Doug Tudor-- the grassroots progressives opposing them-- can make a real impact. They can do it if we can do it. They need all of out help. Please consider a contribution if you can handle it.

Why Did 24 Democrats Vote Against The Helping Families Save Their Homes Act of 2009?

Frank Kratovil, Maryland Blue Dog, tells 26,844 victims of predatory banksters to go to hell-- in his own district!

As we mentioned, The Helping Families Save Their Homes Act of 2009 passed last Thursday 234 to 191 with 7 Republicans (profiled earlier today) crossing the aisle to vote with the Democrats for their beleaguered constituents instead of sticking with the banksters and special interests, as Republicans are wont to do. On their way across the aisle they passed two dozen renegade Democrats heading in the other direction.

Most of the Democrats-- though not all-- who voted with the banksters and Republicans on this are habitual working family abusers: your Dan Borens, Gene Taylors, Chris Carneys, Bobby Brights, Travis Childers, Parker Griffiths... No surprises there. What did shock me was that a couple of usually dependable Democratic congressman who do stand up for working families as a matter of course and with no prodding, deserted to the other side on this. One is Eric Massa (D-NY), a tireless fighter for working families. He sent a press release explaining his position which bragged about his independence from the leadership, a kind of craven thing to do and not what I'd expect from him. But it got worse.

"I campaigned on a platform of standing as an independent voice and voting in the interests of my constituents, not a political party. Today I did just that because I didn't think the Housing bill delivered a proportionally fair amount of relief to the families of my district," said Congressman Massa moments after the vote. "With this in mind, I could not rationalize further deficit spending in the face of minimal assistance to the working families in our district. While there are a number of things that I did like in this bill, the projections in it demonstrated that it was largely targeted to States like California, Nevada and Florida where the housing crisis has hit the hardest, not Western New York. I support helping families refinance their adjustable rate mortgages to stay in their homes, but compared to many other states, Western New Yorkers would not benefit enough to warrant my vote."

For a man who spent his career honorably defending this nation in the military, his attitude against victims of predatory banksters who happen to not live in his district was pretty startling. I guess there is a way of doing a cost/benefit analysis as to the share NY-29, which takes far more federal aid than its residents pay in taxes, residents will pay in relation to how this bill will impact the 6,867 families who will be foreclosed on in Massa's district over the next 4 years. I'm not sure if this was Larry Kissell's reasoning too-- but he's another stalwart fighter for working families who went over to the Dark Side on this one. His district stands to lose 12,306 homes to foreclosures in the next 4 years.

That said, what about the Blue Dogs and fellow reactionaries whose sojourn over to GOPville is nothing out of the ordinary? The two arch-conservatives from Alabama, fake Democrats Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith always side with the special interests against their constituents. The foreclosure epidemic hasn't hit either's district disastrously-- over the next 4 years 9,378 foreclosures in Bright's district and 10,518 in Griffith. I guess Bright is counting on them not voting since his margin of victory in 2008 was 1,766. Parker is a little safer from the ire of 20,000 angry couples whose homes were foreclosed on because of him since his margin of victory was a more hearty 9,339.

The closest call at the polls last November for any New York incumbent was for Mike Arcuri, an actual moderate Blue Dog who also belongs to the Populist Caucus. Only 6,400 votes separated him from his Republican challenger-- in an upstate New York district which will lose 7,284 homes to foreclosure in the next four years. Hard core Blue Dog Jim Matheson, on the other hand, could have a real problem on his hands. UT-02 is a very Republican district. McCain beat Obama 57-39% while the GOP didn't bother fielding a serious challenger to their Blue Dog ally, Matheson. If they do in 2010, they can be thinking about 17,426 foreclosed homes, probably around 40,000 voters.

Frank Kratovil won with less than half the votes and only beat his extremist Republican opponent by 2,852 votes. If the GOP wises up and runs a mainstream conservative or even a moderate against him, Kratovil is likely to be toast in one of only two districts in Maryland that McCain won (Obama took 40%). The PVI is R+10 and with 26,844 houses projected for foreclosure in the next 4 years, Kratovil could be swamped.

Maybe they're counting on their constituents not finding out who sided with the banksters against them. Maybe they're counting on their constituents not to bother finding out that their representative, supposedly from a party that stands up for working families, voted to get them evicted from their homes. They better hope their constituents don't read DWT.

The Unresolved Congressional Contests

Blue Dog Nye beats rabid Republican Drake in VA-02

First some good news: rubber stamp and arch-reactionary Thelma Drake (VA-02) just conceded. The extremist imbecile who took over the southeast Virginia seat of Ed Schrock after he accidentally left his closet door open and then decided to resign from Congress so he could "spend more time with his family," is unlikely to ever be heard from again. The new congressman is Glenn Nye, a middle of the road Democrat.

Some of the other House races are more critical because they pit genuine progressives against right-wing extremists. And then there are still some Senate races not determined yet. This morning's CQPolitics went through them all.

Last night I was a guest on Air America, talking about these races. The very first question was about the "closeness" of the Merkley-Smith Senate contest in Oregon. But it really wasn't that close. Unlike in Minnesota, say, where, only 236 votes (of 2.8 ballots cast) separates Al Franken and Norm Coleman, "closeness" wasn't the issue in Oregon. It was just a matter of slow counting. With 91% of precincts now counted, Jeff Merkley took 816,276 (49%) votes and incumbent Gordon Smith only had 764,540 (46%)-- not a blowout, but not a worth a recount either, especially since the 9% of uncounted precincts are all Democratic-leaning. Smith conceded yesterday.

Now in Minnesota we really do need a complete and thorough recount. And, despite Coleman's silly huffing and puffing-- he leads by the 236 votes-- it is legally mandated. The recount starts after November 18, will take at least a week or two and that doesn't rule out further legal challenges, especially if a sore loser like Coleman doesn't get what he wants.

Georgia is more clear cut. No one got a 50% majority so there is a run-off on December 2. Incumbent wingnut Saxby Chambliss has 49.8% of the vote and Democrat Jim Martin has 46.8%.

Republicans contend that Chambliss would have the advantage in a runoff, arguing that Democrat Martin, who is white, would have difficulty generating the kind of huge turnout among the black constituency-- more than a quarter of the state’s population-- that came out in strength for Barack Obama. But the cash-rich Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has pledged to pour money into Georgia to back Martin if the race goes to a runoff, and Democratic strategists argue that Republican voters may be deflated by their party’s setbacks and are less likely to return to the polls in less than four weeks.

A lot may come down to whether or not President-elect Obama is willing to push hard for Martin. I'm guessing he won't and Martin will lose.

The Alaska Senate race may well have been fixed, as we discussed earlier, but there are still 55,000 votes to count. Convicted felon Ted Stevens-- who is also facing expulsion from both the Republican caucus and the Senate itself-- leads Mark Begich (according to what looks like the tainted results) by 3,300 votes of the 200,000 or so cast. If he's declared the winner and is then expelled, Alaska would then get a 90 day appointee courtesy of Sarah Palin, followed by a special election 90 days later-- unless we sell Alaska back to the Russians or rescind statehood.

And then there will be the interim appointments (2 years) to fill the Illinois and Delaware Senate seats being vacated by Obama and Biden-- both being made by Democratic governors.

Over on the House side, there are more undecided races. Last night we looked at the CA-44 (parts of Orange and Riverside Counties) where Ken Calvert insists he's the winner and says he doesn't care about any final vote count. Unfortunately for Calvert, most of the tens of thousands of uncounted votes are from Riverside County, the part of the district that supports Bill Hedrick, although there are plenty of hard right areas in Orange County with uncounted votes as well.

Way on the other end of the state, provisional and absentee ballots have to be counted in CA-04, where extremist maniac Tom McClintock leads Charlie Brown by 644 votes.

Louisiana's arcane election system will chose two House members-- one for LA-02 (New Orleans) and one for LA-04 (McCrery's old Shreveport-centered district in the northwest part of the state-- on December 6. Democratic incumbent, William Jefferson, still awaiting trial on corruption charges, and reactionary anti-choice so-called "Democratic" candidate Paul Carmouche are both favored. Nothing to look forward to in either case.

In Ohio's 15th CD (Columbus) there is a very tight contest to replace GOP rubber stamp Deborah Pryce, between Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy and Republican Steve Stivers. As of this morning Stivers seems to be ahead by 146 votes (out of 290,000 cast), although there are still plenty of votes to be counted next week.

Yet to be counted are provisional ballots, which won't be tallied for 10 days; the military and overseas absentee ballots postmarked by the time the polls closed Tuesday and received by Nov. 14; any domestic absentee ballots postmarked by Monday that are received by Nov. 14; as well as any of the estimated 5,000 absentee ballots with errors that voters correct by Nov. 14.

Kilroy's campaign predicted that those ballots would melt away Stivers' lead. Provisional ballots, often cast by younger voters and new residents, tend to skew Democratic.

"We are confident that when the Board of Elections completes their work that Mary Jo Kilroy will be declared the winner given the number of ballots that have yet to be counted in Franklin County," Kilroy spokesman Brad Bauman said in a written statement in the afternoon.

In Maryland's first CD right-wing loon Andy Harris trails Blue Dog Frank Kratovil by 1,882 votes. The state will count absentee and provisional ballots next week but the Blue Dog is expected to win won. Big whoop!

From the progressive perspective there are two other crucial House races outstanding: VA-05 where Tom Perriello is leading corrupt wingnut Virgil Goode and WA-08 where counting is extremely slow. In the Virginia race, all the ballots and counted and Tom is ahead by 648 votes but Goode refuses to concede and may have to be dragged out of his office in chains. In Washington there are still a quarter million votes to be counted, mostly in parts of the district that lean Democratic but it could take a week or even longer before the final results are in.

Retiring Republican Congressmen Refusing To Endorse GOP Extremists In Close Races

Monday we heard that Staten Island's outgoing Republican Congressman Vito Fossella has decided to not endorse the Republican running for his seat, Manhattan hot dog vendor Bob Straniere. This was a terrible blow to Straniere's faltering campaign, particularly because he hasn't been able to round up any other GOP officials to endorse him either (except one widely discredited crony of his, state Senator, Andrew Lanza).

Of course, it could have been worse for the hot dog vendor. Fossella could have decided to endorse his Democratic rival, Michael McMahon. No way? That's exactly what outgoing Republican Congressman Wayne Gilchrest did in Maryland-- urging voters in Maryland's first district to vote for conservative Democrat Frank Kratovil over far right extremist Andy Harris. And then yesterday former Congressman Joe Schwarz (R-MI) endorsed progressive mainstream Democratic challenger Mark Schauer over radical right GOP/Club For Growth incumbent Tim Walberg.

Schwarz, who supports McCain in the presidential election, told the Associated Press in an interview that he decided to endorse Schauer over Walberg in the south-central Michigan congressional district because the anti-tax Club for Growth began running ads critical of Schauer's positions on taxes. He said he had hoped to stay neutral in the race but "once they made the decision, the die was cast. That to me is the straw that broke the camel's back. I object to political dabblers who stand for nothing other than to create havoc and dabble in a congressional race where they truly have no interest."

This comes at a particularly bad time for Walberg. The latest polling in the district shows Schauer beating him substantially, 42-36% among voters who have made up their minds. Schwarz' endorsement is expected to help others, especially in battle Creek, where he had been a popular mayor, to make up their minds as well-- and vote for Schauer. Furthermore, perceptions of Walberg’s job as Congressman are very negative, with only 34% saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job while 46% rate him fair-to-poor, numbers that presage an electoral defeat in November. Schauer has been able to out-raise the unpopular Walberg, an extremist who doesn't fit the moderate district, and as of July 16 Schauer had $928,686 on hand and Walberg, who has been running a vicious, costly negative campaign, only has $855,137.


UPDATE: CONGRESSMAN GILCREST (R-MD) HAS HAD IT WITH THE GOP-- AND THAT INCLUDES GRANDPA

Sounds like he's supporting Obama!

He's had it with his own party, which he says "has become more narrow, more self-serving, more centered around 'I want, I want, I want.' " He's finished with his party's presidential candidate, John McCain, who Gilchrest says "recites memorized pieces of information in a narrow way, whereas Barack Obama is constantly evaluating information, using his judgment. One guy just recites what's in front of him, and the other has initiative and reason and prudence and wisdom."

...After much struggle and study, Gilchrest voted for the bailout; what appalls him about his many colleagues who went the other way was that they appeared to do so based neither on a close examination of the issues nor on principle, but rather with a finger to the wind and an eye on the e-mail inbox.

The congressman, whose strongly Republican district stretches from the Pennsylvania line to the border with Virginia, tells me that he's had it with colleagues who "don't understand the issues, who not only don't read the Financial Times, they have never heard of the Financial Times... We're in this bad place as a country because of the evangelicals, the neocons, the nasty, bitter and mean... very clever ideological groups that use money, technology, fear and bigotry to lead people around," he says. "Voting according to your knowledge and experience-- that's out the window. Competence and prudence? Forget it."

EVERYONE IS BLAMING EVERYONE ELSE FOR GOP FINANCIAL CATASTROPHE-- AND ONE REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN IS THREATENING TO ENDORSE A DEMOCRAT!

Many of the most extreme right wing fanatics who set the tone of the GOP conversation, blame the fact that Republican finances are in disarray on what they call Bush's and McCain's "shamnesty" legislation. The GOP has a real problem with immigration that cleaves their party in two. On the one hand, the Greed and Selfishness wing wants cheap labor and clout over unions. On the other hand, the party's Hatred and Bigotry base have been swimming in the pool of racism and xenophobia for so long that they would rather be Know Nothings than Republicans. Neither camp is giving much to the GOP this year.

Meanwhile, House Republican Minority Leader John Boehner isn't relishing predictions that his ability to obstruct progressive legislation could be seriously impaired by a loss of several dozen seats in November. Boehner, who rose to power in the caucus by little tactics like handing out checks to Republican legislators on the floor of the House on behalf of Big Tobacco lobbyists, isn't blaming the Greed and Selfishness wing nor the Hatred and Bigotry wing. He's blaming Republican congressmen's "dead asses."

House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) challenged Republicans on Tuesday to get off their “dead asses” and start raising money for the National Republican Congressional Committee... [at] a closed-door session at the Capitol Hill Club.

... According to numbers read during the Tuesday morning meeting, only 15 Republicans have met their pledged fundraising goal for the dinner. Among them are Texas Reps. Mike Conaway and Pete Sessions and South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson, a source familiar with the fundraising totals said. Another 42 have set a pledged target but failed to contribute the bulk of that money. And an astonishing 142 members-- almost three-fourths of the Republicans in the House-- have failed even to set a fundraising target.

...The NRCC was starting to turn things around at the end of 2007, closing the year with more cash than debt for the first time since the crippling 2006 election. But 2008 began with a fresh crop of retirements and revelations that a former NRCC bookkeeper allegedly forged an internal audit sent to the committee’s principal lender.

Then last Friday, federal prosecutors indicted Arizona Rep. Rick Renzi on 35 criminal counts that include conspiracy, fraud, money laundering and official extortion stemming from a land swap with a former business partner. Shortly afterward, Boehner called on the Arizona Republican, who had already announced his plans not to seek reelection, to “seriously consider” stepping down early. But Renzi has since issued a statement that he has no plans to resign, putting increased pressure on GOP leaders to force his ouster.

Meanwhile today's Hill is reporting that defeated Republican Congressman Wayne Gilchest (R-MD) is blaming his defeat at the hands of an extreme right wing loon on the fringe of polite society, Andy Harris, on the NRCC. Gilchest's campaign manager, a top dog GOP insider, Tony Caligiuri, claims the NRCC kept crucial polling data they had out of the hands of the campaign. He suggests that Tom Cole is running the NRCC in a way that is detrimental to mainstream incumbents. Cole says he "can’t afford to save members from primaries and won’t get financially involved in them," a very different stance from the DCCC, which tried (unsuccessfully) to bolster the sagging fortunes of Al Wynn, defeated by a much larger margin than Gilchrest on the same day in the same state.

Gilchrest has been telling people he might endorse the Democrat against the extremist who defeated him. He says he's unlikely to get involved with GOP politics again. "Caligiuri left open the possibility that Gilchrest might endorse Kratovil in the general election after a nasty primary battle with Harris. Harris defeated Gilchrest 43-33, bringing an end to the centrist incumbent’s 18-year House career. Gilchrest has regularly won two-thirds of the general election vote, making his endorsement potentially key to an uphill battle for Kratovil."

FAR RIGHT REPUBLICAN BEATS MAINSTREAM GOP INCUMBENT WAYNE GILCHREST-- ANOTHER SEAT IS NOW UP FOR GRABS

Radical wingnut beats Gilchrest

Last night everyone was watching Donna Edwards vanquish corrupt corporate shill Al Wynn in MD-04. East on her district there was another drama going on resulting in a stunning loss to mainstream Republican incumbent Wayne Gilchrest to far right extremist Andy Harris. Harris was surrepticiously supported by former Governor Bob Ehrlich, currently a local hate talk radio host, and openly backed by the whole fringe coalition of nuts and loons that have captured control of the GOP in recent years.

MD-01 is an interesting district. It includes the 9 quiet counties on the Eastern Shore but the Democratic legislature has gerrymandered the area so as to dump as many Republicans into the district as possible and many of Baltimore's wealthiest-- and reddest-- suburbs are also part of the district. Basically, though, MD-01 is a moderate Republican district. Bush won it against Kerry with 62%. Now the voters there will have to decide if they want to emphasize the "moderate" or the "Republican."

They can't have both. Gilchrest's voting record was what would have once been termed "mainstream conservative." By current GOP standards, set by loons like Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh and Tom DeLay, Gilchrest was a moderate. The Democrat who won tonight is Frank Kratovil and, oddly, his moderate stands on substantive issues, like the environment, have much more in common with Gilchrest's than Harris' do. Almost identical numbers of Democrats and Republicans voted tonight which is astounding for this overwhelmingly Republican district (R+10).

Republicans don't always win here. In the past I've written quite a bit about a radical right Republican congressman from MD-01, Bob Bauman who was arrested in 1980 for soliciting sex from a 16 year old boy and wound up losing his seat. At the time he was one of the most outspoken right-wing leaders in the country, a founder of the Young Americans For Freedom (still an organization filled with closet cases) and was chairman of the American Conservative Union. After the whole denial stage Republicans always try when they get caught red-handed, Bauman evetually came to terms with his alcoholism and his homosexuality and wrote a really excellent book, The Gentleman From Maryland-- The Conscience of a Gay Conservative. In his wake MD-01 elected a Democrat who was eventually defeated by Gilchrest (on the second try). Gilchrest's defeat by an extremist whose hard right views are entirely out of touch with suburban moderates, will make it possible for another Democratic victory in this district.