Will Voter Outrage Add Up To An Anti-Incumbent Massacre? Insiders Don't Think So

Will Blue Dog Frank Kratovil join a band when he's defeated in Nov?

Yesterday John Amato and I had lunch with a senior Democratic congressman, a respected and even beloved progressive who represents a forward-looking city. He's considered a shoe-in for another landslide re-election (he won with 74% of the vote in 2006 and 75% last year while Obama took 71% in his district). But he works on electoral politics as though he actually needed to. He feels keeping his constituents well-informed about issues is integral to leadership. "I can think of over 100 Democrats in the House who haven't broken a sweat in years," he told us ruefully. They just sleep-walk through re-election after re-election and they are utterly out of touch with the voters back home. Many have never cultivated the basic skills to communicate their (or the party's) ideas and values.

Yesterday, Beltway insider Stuart Rothenberg explained why none of this matters and even in a politically turbulent year like this, incumbents can count on being re-elected by rote. Acknowledging that Republicans could have some problems in their primaries-- he singles out Texas secessionist Governor Rick Perry plus likely victims of teabaggers Jan Brewer (AZ), Dan Burton (IN), Bob Bennett (UT) and Bob Inglis (SC)-- and that voters are certainly angry with politicians, he posits that "dissatisfaction with those in charge doesn’t mean that November is likely to be an 'anti-incumbent election.' In fact, it almost certainly won’t."

Non-incumbent Republicans who have the mantle of the establishment are also vulnerable given the current environment.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the state’s GOP Senate nomination, is the most obvious example. He faces a very difficult fight against former state Speaker Marco Rubio, who is running as the insurgent in spite of his previous position.

The same dynamic is taking place in New Hampshire, where conservative Ovide Lamontagne and two businessmen could give former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte a migraine in the Republican Senate primary.

And in Kentucky, Rand Paul, son of Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul (a former presidential candidate), is running as an outsider for the Republican Senate nomination against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the favorite of virtually the entire state and national Republican Party. GOP insiders think that Grayson can win the primary, but they are far from certain about the outcome.

Rothenberg trumpets his non-partisanship and his apologists always say he's not really a Republican shill, just a devotee of the status quo. But that is demonstrably untrue. Like most of the Inside the Beltway establishment, Rothenberg abhors progressives (dirty fucking hippies, to them) and his "analysis" will always swing against them and against Democrats embracing progressivism. Predictably, he predicts doom for Democrats in November. He claims the public mood "currently looks likely to punish Democrats at the ballot box."

He points to polls that show conservative Democrats Baron Hill (Blue Dog-IN), Frank Kratovil (Blue Dog- MD), Blanche Lincoln (AR) and Steve Driehaus (OH) all losing in November, but doesn't mention that their voting records have been overwhelmingly against their own party and that they have managed to disillusion and demoralize the Democratic base by voting like Republicans. Kratovil, for example has only voted with the Democrats 25.76% of the time on substantive issues. The rest of the time, he's been in Boehner's pocket. Why should Democratic voters even think about re-electing him? Just because he has a "D" next to his name? The "D" has been blurred out for the "Blue Dog" and if he hoped to win Republican votes by voting with the GOP on issue after issue, he was naive. Republican Andy Harris led him in a recent poll by an astonishing 13 points. Kratovil's a goner.

A dozen of so Kratovil-like Blue Dogs going down in November will leave the Democratic Party more cohesive, more effective, more able to serve the needs of working families and more progressive. When you hear about likely Republican gains in November, it is overwhelmingly gains they will make against the very "Democrats" who have voted most frequently in lockstep with the GOP, reactionaries like Travis Childers (Blue Dog-MS), Bobby Bright (Blue Dog-AL), Walt Minnick (Blue Dog-ID), Glenn Nye (Blue Dog-VA), Scott Murphy (Blue Dog-NY), Joe Donnelly (Blue Dog-IN), Brad Ellsworth (Blue Dog-IN), Chris Carney (Blue Dog-PA), Kathy Dahlkemper (Blue Dog-PA), Baron Hill (Blue Dog-IN) and Harry Mitchell (Blue Dog-AZ).

Far more productive, though, in this anti-incumbent climate, are the opportunities for replacing reactionary Democrats with actual moderates and progressives in primaries. The new Blue America page, Send Democrats A Message They Can Understand is part of an effort to replace faux-Democrats like Jane Harman (Blue Dog-CA) and John Barrow (Blue Dog-GA) with stalwart fighters for ordinary American working families like Marcy Winograd and Regina Thomas. This is just the kind of national mood where more-of-the-same establishment figures like Lee Fisher (OH), Ed Case (HI), Katrina Swett (NH) and Lori Edwards (FL) will stand no chance against an anti-establishment mood. It's the perfect opportunity for real representatives of working families like Jennifer Brunner, Colleen Hanabusa, Ann Kuster and Doug Tudor-- the grassroots progressives opposing them-- can make a real impact. They can do it if we can do it. They need all of out help. Please consider a contribution if you can handle it.