How NATO-Member Turkey Reverted Back To Being An Islamic Dictatorship

-by Eric Zuesse

The gradual process of Turkey’s becoming an Islamic sharia-law country, again, is no longer so gradual. It has taken a sudden and sharp rightward turn, into Islamic-nationhood. Turkey’s Hagia Sophia, which had been “the world's largest cathedral for nearly a thousand years, until Seville Cathedral was completed in 1520,” has now been officially declared by the Turkish Government to be, instead, a mosque.

On July 10th, the BBC bannered “Hagia Sophia: Turkey turns iconic Istanbul museum into mosque” and reported that the biggest, oldest, and the most important, cathedral in all of Orthodox Christendom-- and the world’s most important Byzantine building, which was constructed as the Saint Sophia Cathedral by the Byzantine Roman Emperor Justinian I in Constantinople (now Istanbul) in the year 537, and which stands on the site that had been consecrated in the year 325 by the Roman Emperor Constantine (and which cathedral was relabelled the Hagia Sophia “museum” in 1935 by Turkey’s Constitutionally secularist Government)-- has now become, officially, at last, designated, by the restored Islamic Government of Turkey, a Muslim house of worship, a mosque, a Muslim house of worship.

This signals the end of Turkey’s being ruled by a secular Government, which it had been, ever since 1923. It is the end of Turkey’s secular Government and the restoration of the Islamic Mehmed the Conqueror’s 1453 order that it be a mosque. That ended the Byzantine Roman Catholic Empire, and started Islamic-ruled Turkey. It ended Constantinople and started Istanbul. Mehmet, however, allowed Christianity to continue, in the Islamic Ottoman Empire, but only as an accepted part of the Greek East (“Orthodox”), not as part of the Roman West (imperialistic), Christianity (which he had just then conquered with the fall of Constantinople on that same date, 29 May 1453). And now, even the Orthodox Christians are being marginalized in Turkey, because the Hagia Sophia had been “for almost 1,000 years the most important Orthodox cathedral.”

This is an act with huge international implications. It is an important event in human history.

Turkey’s dictator, Recip Tayyip Erdogan, whose entire actual education was only in Islamic schools though he lies about it and claims to have received a degree from a non-Islamic university, is in the process of transforming Turkey back again into a specifically Islamic type of dictatorship, a Sharia-law-ruled state. The secularist Turkish Republic that was instituted in 1923 by the Enlightenment-inspired Kemal Attaturk has now decisively ended. The widespread speculations that Erdogan has been aiming to restore Turkey to being the imperial nation and ruler of a restored Islamic Ottoman Empire are now decisively confirmed by this brazen act of insult to Orthodox Christians, and even to Roman Christians, because-- as Wikipedia notes-- “Justinian has sometimes been known as the ‘Last Roman’ in mid-20th century historiography.” The Orthodox Church in America titles him as “Saint Justinian The Emperor.” However, Wikipedia also notes that Constantine XI Palaiologos, who was killed by Mehmet’s forces on that date, 29 May 1453, was actually the last Roman Emperor. That ended the Roman Empire.

In other words: the Turkish Government’s official change of Saint Sophia Cathedral, which Justinian had created in 537, into now and henceforth a mosque, is a taking ownership of, and a Turkish-Muslim declaration of supremacy over, a different religion’s main house of worship. It’s a historical dagger into the heart of Orthodox Christianity, as well as being an insult to Roman Christianity.

This is not merely an isolated act, either; it is, instead, something to which Erdogan has long been building. Erdogan’s grab of land from secularist-ruled (committedly anti-sectarian) Syria, and his recent sending of troops to help conquer the formerly secularist Libya, which land had been turned into a hellish civil war by a U.S.-and-allied invasion in 2011 and which chaos there continues to this day, all are consistent with an understanding of Erdogan in which his foremost objective is a restoration of the Ottoman Empire. And the U.S. Government has supported this objective of his (but only as Turkey being a branch of the U.S. empire), and tried to get the EU to accept it.

The question now-- since the United States Government has been pushing against European resistance to accepting a military alliance with an Islamic dictatorship-- is whether continuation of the NATO alliance will be ended because of the path that Erdogan and the United States Government have jointly been taking to re-impose a decidedly Sunni Islamic dictatorship upon Turkey (by means of which, Turkey will serve as a wedge against both Shiite controlled Iran, and an increasingly Orthodox-dominated Russia). However, there has been a split between Erdogan and the U.S. regime, because he does not intend his restored Ottoman empire to be a part of the U.S. or any other empire. Erdogan’s independent streak is what now threatens to break-up the Western Alliance-- the U.S. empire (which is actually the Rhodesist UK-U.S. empire).

The United States Government has been preferring Erdogan’s former political partner but now enemy, Erdogan’s fellow Sunni Islamist Fethullah Gulen, who cooperates with the U.S. and is a CIA protégé (including rabidly against Shiite Iran and against Iran’s main ally Russia). Gulen is passionately endorsed by America’s aristocracy. The U.S. regime has been preferring Gulen to impose this transformation of Turkey into an Islamic U.S. satellite, because Gulen models his operation (and he has even described it in remarkable detail) upon U.S. and UK ‘intelligence’ practices (CIA & MI6), whereas Erdogan has insisted upon an independent Turkey with its own nationalistic ‘intelligence’ organization-- a nationalistically transformed version of Turkey’s existing MIT or National Intelligence Organization-- an ‘intelligence’ organization that’s cleansed of what the CIA praises as “Gulen is interested in slow and deep social change, including secular higher education; Erdogan as a party leader is first and foremost interested in preserving his party’s power, operating in a populist manner, trying to raise the general welfare.” (The CIA actually knows that this has nothing whatsoever to do with “trying to raise the general welfare”-- the U.S. regime’s goal is to extend everywhere the U.S. empire, and Erdogan’s Turkish regime has that same goal for the Turkish empire, which doesn’t yet even exist, though it once did as the Ottoman Empire, and he wants to restore it.) Erdogan insists upon Turkey’s not being merely a vassal-state or colony within a foreign-led empire, but instead the leading nation of its own empire, starting perhaps with gobbling up Syria and Libya, but extending ultimately more globally. There is a soundly documented article titled “Why Are Gulenists Hostile Toward Iran?” and it provides much of the reason why the CIA supports Gulen (they do largely because Erdogan isn’t so obsessive against Iran-- which country America’s aristocracy crave to conquer again, as they had done in 1953, and Erdogan doesn’t support that as passionately as they require).

The question now for Europe is whether it wants to be again a participant in various aristocracies’, and clergies’, imperialistic designs, or instead to declare itself finally non-aligned and to lead thereby a new global non-aligned movement, not militaristically, but instead by providing, to the entire world, an anti-imperialistic and truly democratic model, a re-start and replacement of today’s United Nations, and one that will reflect what had been Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s anti-imperialist intention, and not Harry S. Truman’s American-imperialist intention-- a start from scratch that has FDR’s statements to guide it, and not Truman’s actions to guide it (such as has been the case). Perhaps even the U.S., NYC-based, U.N. would ultimately sign onto that new international global federation; but the only basis upon which nations in the old U.N. should be accepted into its successor would be if the old U.N. were gradually to dissolve itself as its individual nations would, each on its own, sign onto the new one. Ultimately, this option must be made available to all Governments, to choose to either continue in Truman’s U.N., or else join instead a new, and authentically FDR-based, authentically anti-imperialistic, replacement of it.

That is what this dictatorial Islamization of Turkey is really all about, and only Europe can make the decision-- no other land can. However, such a decision will only fail if any such organization as a new U.N. is to be at all involved in the particular national issues that now are so clearly coming to the fore in the transformation of Turkey into a Sunni Islamist dictatorship.

The “international community” should have no say in Turkey’s intranational (or “domestic”) affairs-- regardless of whether Turkey is in or out of Europe. Sectarian and nationalistic concerns cannot rule in the formation of any authentically democratic new international order-- an authentically non-imperialistic international order. All such concerns, domestic concerns, must be strictly the domain of the authority and power of each one of the individual constituent units, each individual national Government itself controlling its own internal affairs. FDR was adamant about that. He was insistent that the U.N. not get involved in individual nations’ internal affairs. The profoundly anti-FDR, “Responsibility to Protect” idea (which now has even acquired the status of being represented by an acronym “R2P” catch-phrase), has increasingly arisen recently to become a guiding principle of international relations, and must be soundly and uncompromisingly rejected in the formulation and formation of any replacement-organization-- any authentically democratic international federation of nations. Otherwise, everything would be futile, and there will be a WW III. We are heading in exactly the opposite direction from that which FDR had intended-- which was to prevent any Third World War.

This decision will be made by the individual nations of Europe. Only they collectively hold this power. They will be able to exercise it only if they will terminate their alliances outside of Europe, and proceed forward no longer bound by external alliances, but instead become a free and independent European federation of European states. Only they, collectively, will be able to make this decision, as Europeans, for the entire world, regarding what the world’s future will be. And only they will hold the ultimate responsibility-- and it’s NOT the “responsibility to protect.” It is instead the responsibility to protect the future of the entire world. It’s the responsibility to protect a future for the world. And if Europe fails it, then the world will inevitably move forward to WW III, as it is doing. A new international order is needed, and only Europe can lead it, if Europe will.

In order for Europe to do that, Europe must first define itself. Is Turkey part of Europe? Is Russia? What is Europe? If Europeans won’t be able to agree on that, then the world will continue to move forward towards WW III, because the world will then have no center, it will continue to have only contending empires-- exactly what FDR had aimed to prevent.

Europe is the key. But will Europe’s leaders place the key in the lock, and open, finally, the door to a non-imperialistic world? The present, U.S.-empire-aligned, Europe, won’t do that. Turkey’s action on the Hagia Sophia, which is an insult to all Christians, and especially to Orthodox ones, might finally force the issue-- and its solution.

Other than that, however, the official designation of the Hagia Sophia as being a mosque is entirely a domestic, Turkish, matter.

Trump: The Republican Party's Biggest Albatross In History-- And Joni Ernst Vaults Towards The Top Of The Most Vulnerable List

Trump Snowball Effect by Nancy Ohanian

"Wednesday, the 1,000th day of Donald Trump’s presidency, went badly," wrote Jonathan Bernstein. "That’s no surprise; most of the first 999 days went badly too. I have no idea if he’s going to wind up getting ousted from office, either as a result of the impeachment House Democrats are readying or the 2020 election. But things are getting worse for Trump-- whether he realizes it or not." Bernstein was referring to Trump's moronic letter to Erdogan, "an embarrassment, in which Trump, soon after telling Erdogan on the phone that U.S. forces would move out of his way to enable Turkey’s invasion of Syria, tried to walk things back. Sort of. As Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman put it at the Monkey Cage, the president opted for 'threatening rhetoric reminiscent of a Mafia boss' to 'make loud threats that he may not be able to deliver on.' As soon as the letter was published, professional diplomats and historians said they had never seen something so amateurish from a U.S. president." That's Donald J. Trumpanzee!

But what really underlined Trump’s problem for me wasn’t that he wrote an incompetent letter to follow up on what seems to have been an incompetent phone call. Or that his Syria policy has resulted in chaos and death. Or that, on a crass political level, he’s managed to alienate his congressional allies just as he needs them most, with House Republicans voting overwhelmingly on Wednesday to condemn his decision.

No, what really got to me was that Trump distributed copies of this letter to congressional leaders when they showed up at the White House for a briefing. Think of it. Even if the letter had been perfectly normal, what Trump was handing them was an Oct. 9 request to Erdogan to halt his invasion-- a request that Erdogan has, as we’ve seen, totally ignored. Trump was bragging about what he considered to be a sign of his own brilliance without realizing that it was instead evidence of abject failure.

And that too, of course, is Donald J. Trumpanzee, star of his own reality show, U.S.A.! This and a million other things that are just horrifying. And Republicans in Congress see this too-- and wonder how badly its all going to blow back on them next year. Wednesday, only 60 Republicans voted against a Democratic resolution opposing his moves in Syria. 129 Republicans crossed the aisle and voted with the Democrats, including Trump suck-ups like minority leader Kevin McCarthy, minority whip Steve Scalise and names always associated with Trump worship, from stooges like Devin Nunes, Liz Cheney, John Ratcliffe, Donald J Bacon and Patrick McHenry to lackeys like Clay Higgins, Michael McCaul, George Holding and sock puppet Lee Zeldin on the tip of Long Island. The 60 who stuck with Trump are generally in the safest, gerrymandered red districts where it would take a thousand foot high anti-Republican national tsunami to displace them-- garbage members like Gym Jordan (OH- R+14), Matt Gaetz (FL- R+22), Louie Gohmert (TX- R+25), Mark Meadows (NC- R+14), Mo Brooks (AL- R+18), Scott DesJarlais (TN- R+20), Greg Pence (IN- R+18), Andy Biggs (AZ- R+15) and Jason Smith (MO- R+24).

Meanwhile, Republican senators in swing states are losing their shit. As Morning Consult explained, vulnerable senators are seeing their chances for reelection slipping away every time Trump does something normal voters hate. And lately, that's several times a day. On Wednesday, we focused on why Susan Collins might as well not even run. Morning Consult looks at the similar travails of Thom Tillis (NC), Cory Gardner (CO), Joni Ernst (IA) and Matha McSally (AZ). "The most vulnerable Republican senators," wrote Eli Yokely, "are not improving their standing in their home states ahead of a tough 2020 election cycle, while the field of potential Democratic challengers took shape and began to flex its muscle. According to Morning Consult’s latest quarterly Senator Approval Rankings based on nearly 534,000 responses from registered voters collected July 1 through Sept. 30, Republicans representing Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa all saw their net approval-- the share of voters who approve of a senator’s job performance minus the share who disapprove-- decline between the second and third quarters of 2019."

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, who has already faced a cascade of negative advertising, saw a drop of 9 percentage points-- the biggest decline in net approval for any senator. The slide places her underwater with Iowa voters (39 percent approve and 43 percent disapprove) for the first time and among the 10 most unpopular senators in the country.

Iowa voters of all partisan leanings soured on the first-term senator, but GOP voters were most likely to take a dimmer view of her job performance. Her net approval dropped by 13 points among Republicans, compared with respective 9- and 7-point drops among Democrats and independents.

Ernst is not the only Republican up for re-election next year with a home-state approval below 40 percent: Among the vulnerable incumbents, Martha McSally of Arizona, Cory Gardner of Colorado and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are all below that threshold following a quarter where each saw little movement.

...As split-ticket voting continues to decline, the latest rankings show Trump continues to be a drag on Republican incumbents. In Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Texas, Trump’s net approval with registered voters is worse than that of the incumbent Republican, by double digits in several cases.

Among the dozen senators with the smallest approval numbers (from voters in their own states) are 5 Republicans who have to face the voters in 2020-- with Trump further dragging them down. (In way of comparison, Bernie, once again the most popular senator in America, has a 65% approval and John Barrasso, the most popular Republican, has a 59% approval.)

• Thom Tillis (NC)- 33%
• Cory Gardner (CO)- 36%
• Moscow Mitch (KY)- 37%
• Martha McSally (AZ)- 39%
• Joni Ernst (IA)- 39%

Putin Is Eager To See U.S. Nukes Removed From Turkey

The Axios headline was both disturbing and likely inaccurate: Pelosi and Graham team up to oppose Trump's Syria decision. There's a whiff of an implication that they're trying to somehow change Trump's decision. As unlikely as it is, Trump's the commander-in-chief, as well as an ignorant moron. And as Pelosi knows-- even if Graham doesn't-- there is no way for Congress to overrule his decision. In this matter, he's in charge; they're not. Pelosi is already working on making sure there's a new commander-in-chief as soon as possible. Graham's working just as hard to make sure Trump is the commander-in-chief for another 5 years and a month.

Politico reported that bipartisan efforts will be used "to overturn President Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops." That will never happen; it's as insane as Trump is. What they're actually doing that makes sense is preparing harsh sanctions against Erdoğan's government, which might be effective-- and might be the only alternative to doing nothing-- although a sanctions regime carries some very serious risks as well.

Under normal circumstances-- with a normal president and State Department, regardless of party-- something like this would have been handled diplomatically, not as part of a childish twitter rampage aimed at reelection. Pelosi on her conversion with Graham: "Our first order of business was to agree that we must have a bipartisan, bicameral joint resolution to overturn the President’s dangerous decision in Syria immediately," whatever that means. "Next, we must put together the strongest bipartisan, bicameral sanctions package similar to the bipartisan bill the House is advancing. As we find ourselves in a situation where the President gave a green light to the Turks to bomb and effectively unleashed ISIS, we must have a stronger sanctions package than what the White House is suggesting."

Graham spoke about the conversation as well: "Speaker [Pelosi] supports bipartisan sanctions against Turkey’s outrages in Syria. She also believes we should show support for Kurdish allies and is concerned about the reemergence of ISIS. I will be working across party lines in a bicameral fashion to draft sanctions and move quickly, appreciating President Trump’s willingness to work with the Congress. The Speaker indicated to me that time was of the essence."

Erdoğan's government has claimed from the start that Trump knew exactly what Turkey was planning, when he gave them the thumbs up to invade the Kurdish enclave in Northern Syria. How did Trump know? Erdogan sought his assistance, which he provided-- withdrawing U.S. troops from the area and leaving the our Kurdish allies and their families to Erdoğan's tender mercies.

The U.S. has a major airbase in Adana in southern Turkey, Incirlik, and Russia has been wanting to see the 50 U.S. nuclear weapons out of there; that has a lot to do with why Putin has stirred up trouble between Erdoğan and the easily manipulated Trump. The last time the U.S. put sanctions on Turkey was in 1978 when Turkey invaded Cyprus. The Turks came close to shutting down Incirlik then but decided to just suspend all operations instead. The EU has already imposed an arms embargo against Turkey and Trump will do that even without a congressional resolution, which is likely to be much stronger than what Trump wants. Removing those nuclear weapons is being actively discussed in the Pentagon.

Erdoğan has threatened to send millions of refugees into Europe as retaliation. He was in Baku yesterday-- not staying at the dilapidated Trump Tower there-- and he told the media that he will react forcefully to NATO attempts to isolate Turkey. "We are determined to take our operation to the end. We will finish what we started,” he said. “A hoisted flag does not come down. Erdoğan is a dick-- like Trump-- but Turkey is a strong American ally. Someone should be treading carefully.

The nuclear weapons are now Erdoğan's hostages. This is exactly the kind of situation where having a hothead and impetuous know-it-all sitting in the Oval Office poses dangers for the U.S. and the rest of the world. Jim Himes (D-CT) is a senior member of the House Intelligence Committee and chair of its Subcommittee on Strategic Technologies. Earlier today he told me that "Trump has fatally abandoned our only real ally in the region, the Kurds, stirred the ISIS hornets’ nest and given Russia, Assad and Iran a free hand. For which he got what?"

Ted Lieu (D-CA) is usually thought of as one of the most brilliant minds on the House Judiciary Committee. OK-- but he's also one of the most valuable members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. This evening he reminded us that "The Kurdish people have been one of America's staunchest allies for decades. In 1996 I participated in Operation PACIFIC HAVEN, where the DoD airlifted Kurds out of Iraq and into Guam. We did this because the Kurds helped the United States fight Saddam Hussein and we had a duty to protect them from violent retaliation. More recently the Kurds helped the United States fight ISIS. Our strategy to contain and retake territory from ISIS in Syria was successful primarily due to the sacrifices of thousands of Kurdish fighters on the ground. Anyone who has heard me speak about foreign policy knows that I believe we should not be engaged in endless war around the globe. As a veteran, I am in favor of bringing our troops home. But we must end these engagements in a smart and strategic way that honors our commitments and protects our men and women in uniform. Trump's reckless decision to abandon our allies has destabilized the entire region. It has pushed the Kurds into an unholy alliance with Assad and Putin, allowed hundreds of ISIS affiliates to escape from Kurdish-run prisons, put our troops in harms way, and endangered our national security."

 Andy Levin (D-MI) is an influential member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a member of its Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific and Nonproliferation. He's also deputy whip of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. This morning, in a note about Trump, he told me that "truly, on top of all of his impeachable offenses, we have never confronted a president as uncoachable, as unstable, as ignorant and as insecure-arrogant as Trump in modern times. His ability to make a complete disaster of foreign policy on a whim while on the phone with a foreign strongman (pant, pant, pant) has darn nearly accomplished the impossible-- uniting Congressional Democrats and Republicans."

Tom Suozzi (D-NY), the sharpest member of Congress from Long Island, a member of the Ways and Means Committee, told me today that "There are all kinds of theories about what game the President is playing-- helping Erdogan, helping Putin, business gain, ignorance, naivite, total lack of judgement, or more likely, trying to change the front pages to help his re election. The bottom line, however, is this is not a game. This is serious business. It is life and death. ISIS. World balance of power. War. People’s existence. Just like healthcare, immigration, gun violence prevention, climate change and so much more are serious life and death issues for real people. Freedom and democracy are serious business. This is no time for game playing. Times up."

A Putin puppet, Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, leader of Russian nationalist Liberal Democratic Party, proclaimed just before the U.S. election that if Trump won, Russia would "drink champagne in anticipation of being able to advance its positions on Syria and Ukraine."

Trump Just Ordered All U.S. Troops Out Of Syria (Again)-- Lindsey Graham Has A Breakdown... Is This Withdrawal Good Or Bad Or Just Too Complicated For Trump To Be Involved With?

Having served their purpose, the Kurds are being fucked-over by the U.S. once again. Lindsey Graham knows how to reach Trump when he doesn't pick up his phone-- you just call in to Fox & Friends instead (above). And there's always the ole tweet machine:

On Saturday, Reese Erlich, currently reporting from Turkey, explained what Turkey is up to in Northern Syria. Maybe Lindsey should have paid attention so Trump's decision wouldn't have surprised him as much. Turkey has its own agenda there and isn't following ours-- which is exactly what, anyway?

This morning Trump ordered U.S. forces to start withdrawing from the Turkish-Syrian border region, which is what caused Graham's flip out. The Washington Post called it "the clearest sign yet that the Trump administration was washing its hands of an explosive situation between the Turkish military and U.S.-allied Kurdish fighters... Trump, in a series of Twitter messages Monday, suggested that the United States was shouldering too much of the burden-- and the cost-- of fighting the Islamic State. He rebuked European nations for not repatriating citizens who had joined the extremist group, claiming that the United States was being played for a 'sucker.' And he chided his own Kurdish allies, who he said were 'paid massive amounts of money and equipment' to fight the militants."

The withdrawal followed a late Sunday statement by the White House that the United States would not intervene in a long-threatened Turkish offensive into northern Syria. The announcement, which signaled an abrupt end to a months-long American effort to broker peace between two important allies, came after a call between Trump and Turkish President Recap Tayyip Erdogan.

Erdogan said in a speech Monday that the withdrawal began soon after their phone call.

A U.S. official confirmed to the Washington Post that American troops left observation posts in the border villages of Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn at 6:30 a.m. local time.

The fast-moving developments threatened a fresh military conflagration in a large swath of northern Syria, stretching from east of the Euphrates River to the border with Iraq. Syrian Kurds had established an autonomous zone in the area during more than eight years of Syria’s civil war.

Ankara, however, has been increasingly unnerved by the Kurdish presence, and by the close ties between U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish fighters and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a militant group that has fought a long insurgency against the Turkish state.

For months, Erdogan has been threatening an imminent invasion, as Trump administration officials attempted to work out an accommodation that would satisfy Turkish demands for border security while providing a measure of protection for the U.S.-allied Syrian-Kurdish force.

But on Sunday, the United States appeared to throw up its hands. White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said the Turkish leader would “soon be moving forward” with dispatching troops to battle the Kurdish forces, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF. Ankara views the group as a terrorist-linked entity, but the SDF has fought closely alongside the U.S. military as a primary partner against the Islamic State.

“The United States armed forces will not support or be involved in the operation, and United States forces, having defeated the ISIS territorial ‘caliphate,’ will no longer be in the immediate area,” Grisham said in a statement. ISIS is another name for the Islamic State, the militant group whose rise drew the U.S. military into Syria.

The SDF, in a statement critical of the United States, said the American troops have begun pulling out.

“The United States forces have not fulfilled their obligations and withdrew their forces from the border area with Turkey,” the statement said. “This Turkish military operation in north and east Syria will have a big negative impact on our war against Daesh and will destroy all stability that was reached in the last few years.” Daesh is an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State.

It added that the group reserves the right to defend itself against Turkish aggression.

Erdogan, who has portrayed a Turkish incursion as necessary to protect his country’s borders, has spoken in recent weeks of resettling millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey in a “safe zone” in northern Syria, a plan that has been criticized by refugee advocates as well as local Syrian Kurds who could be displaced by such a proposal.

On Saturday, Erdogan said the invasion, dubbed Operation Peace Fountain, could begin “as soon as today or maybe tomorrow.”

U.S. officials depicted the impending offensive, and the U.S. troop withdrawal, as a dramatic turn after their prolonged attempt to hammer out an arrangement that would allay the Turks’ concerns about Syrian Kurdish forces close to their border, while also averting a battle they fear will be bloody for Kurdish fighters whom the Pentagon sees as stalwart allies.

Military officials point out that Kurdish assistance is still required to avoid a return of the Islamic State in Syria and to guard facilities where Islamic State militants and their families are being held.

A senior U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an evolving situation, said the U.S. government “has no idea” what the Turkish operation would look like, whether it would be a small, symbolic incursion or a major offensive intended to push as far as 25 miles into Syria.

U.S. officials said an operation deep into Syria could further jeopardize the security of prisons holding Islamic State fighters. “There are many potential disastrous outcomes to this,” the official said.

The White House announcement comes only two days after the Pentagon completed its most recent joint patrol with Turkish forces, a central element of the U.S. effort to build trust in northern Syria. But similar patrols and other measures overseen from a joint U.S.-Turkish military hub in southern Turkey have not reduced Ankara’s impatience to establish the buffer zone it has envisioned.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper described ongoing U.S.-Turkish cooperation in northern Syria, saying that his Turkish counterpart had agreed in a call last week “that we need to make the security mechanism work.”

In negotiations, the United States had said it would agree to a strip along the border to be cleared of Syrian Kurdish fighters and jointly patrolled by the United States and Turkey on the ground and in the air. That strip is about five miles wide, only about a quarter of what the Turks have demanded.

The joint patrols are taking place in only about a third of the border length, with the idea of gradually expanding them. In addition to not liking U.S. terms for the agreement, Erdogan believes the United States is dragging its feet in implementing it.

“Mr. Trump gave the order; he ordered to pull out. But this came late,” Erdogan told reporters in Ankara on Monday. “We cannot accept the threats of terrorist organizations.”

Erdogan’s plan to send up to 3 million Syrian refugees into the 140-mile-long strip also runs counter to what the United States says was part of the agreement they had reached to allow only the 700,000 to 800,000 refugees who originally fled the area to resettle there. Turkey currently hosts more than 3.6 million Syrian refugees, but the government has recently begun deporting hundreds back to Syria as public sentiment turns against the migrants.

She should have said #ErdoganIsNotOurFriend-- Turkey is

Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesman for Erdogan, wrote on Twitter that Turkey has no interest in occupying or changing the demographics in northeastern Syria and that the “safe zone” would serve two purposes: secure Turkey’s borders and allow refugees to return home. [By allow he means "force."]

After months of warning about the turmoil such a move could create, U.S. officials said they are now watching Turkey’s actions closely to inform their own decisions about how quickly they must move the hundreds of troops expected to be affected.

“We're going to get out of the way,” another U.S. official said.

There are about 1,000 U.S. troops in northeastern Syria.

The SDF also predicted that Islamic State fighters would break out of prison camps the SDF manages in different areas of Syria.

The potential for greater risk to Islamic State prisons and camps comes after months of unsuccessful efforts by the Trump administration to persuade countries in Europe and elsewhere to repatriate their citizens.

The White House statement said that “Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters” in that area. “The United States will not hold them for what could be many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer,” Grisham said.

Erdogan said Monday that Turkey has “an approach to this issue” of ISIS, without specifying what it was.

The United Nations is also concerned about the impact that any Turkish operation would have on the protection of civilians in northeastern Syria, Panos Moumtzis, U.N. regional humanitarian coordinator for Syria, said in a telephone interview.

“We want our message to all governments and actors on the ground to be to make sure that this latest development does not have an impact first of all on a new displacement of people,” he said.

The United Nations already provides services to approximately 700,000 people every month in the northeast. Moumtzis emphasized the importance of freedom of movement of civilians and ensuring the continuation of access to humanitarian groups. He stressed that any movement of Syrians must be done voluntarily and with safety and dignity.

“We have not had any specific instructions on” the safe zone, he said, adding that the United Nations has a contingency plan depending on how wide and deep the safe zone would be.

The planned offensive comes amid already heightened U.S. tensions with its NATO ally Turkey, over Ankara’s plans to operate a sophisticated Russian air defense system.

A former senior Trump administration official on the unwillingness of Senate Republicans to almost ever criticize Señor Trumpanzee: "Nobody wants to be the zebra that strays from the pack and gets gobbled up by the lion. They have to hold hands and jump simultaneously." Still a few other usually quiescent Trump enablers who denounced his decision this morning included Liz Cheney (WY), Adam Kinzinger (IL), Peter King (NY) and Marco Rubio (FL), who warned that withdrawing the troops would be a "grave mistake that will have implications far beyond Syria" and that "It would confirm Iran’s view of this administration and embolden them to escalate hostile attacks which in turn could trigger much broader and more dangerous regional war."

UPDATE: Trump Backed Down Already

He says he meant he was only redeploying 50 troops. Everyone is laughing at him.

Foreign Correspondent: Turkey Plans Attack On Syrian Kurds

-by Reese Erlich

ISTANBUL —The Turkish government plans to use Syrian refugees to displace the local Kurdish population in northern Syria. But so far, the scheme isn’t working so well.

Last week, Turkish President Recep Tayep Erdoğan announced his intention to settle up to two million refugees now living in Turkey into northern Syria. “We aim to accelerate the return of Syrian refugees to their homes,” says Erdoğan.

Turkey hopes to transfer Syrian Arabs to an area inhabited for centuries by Kurds. It plans to create a militarily controlled “safe zone,” which would stretch along 300 miles of the Turkish-Syrian border and eighteen miles deep into northern Syria.

Turkey claims such a massive population transfer will lead to the defeat of the Kurdish militia, People’s Protection Units, which it falsely labels as a terrorist group.

According to Sezgin Tanrikulu, a human rights lawyer and member of the Turkish parliament from the opposition Republican People’s Party, the government is embarking on an “Arabization” program similar to what Syria tried to do in the 1950s and 60s, to displace the Kurds.

In an interview he tells me, “We are against the war in Syria, and we are also against the attempts to change the demographic structure of that area. This is not humanitarian and is not something history would accept.”

Voluntary return?

The government has stepped up deportation of refugees arrested for not living in the part of Turkey where they had work permits. And Erdoğan periodically threatens to launch new attacks on the People’s Protection Units (YPG).

Turkish authorities claim that so far, 340,000 refugees have voluntarily returned to live in the Turkish controlled part of northern Syria. But Human Rights Watch has found numerous examples of forced repatriation.

“Turkey claims it helps Syrians voluntarily return to their country, but threatening to lock them up until they agree to return, forcing them to sign forms, and dumping them in a war zone is neither voluntary nor legal,” says Gary Simpson of Human Rights Watch.

The current crisis emerged amidst growing Turkish anger at Syrian refugees. A recent poll shows Turkish support for Syrian refugees has dropped from 70% in 2006 to 40% today. Earlier this year gangs of Turkish youth randomly attacked Syrian shops in Istanbul.

In addition, a three-year agreement expires soon in which Turkey agreed to block refugees from entering Europe in return for $6.8 billion in refugee aid. Ankara is already allowing thousands of refugees to flee to Greece as a warning to the European Union of what the future could hold should a new agreement not be reached.

“The refugee issue is more explosive now,” Sinan Ülgen, executive director of the Turkish think tank Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies, tells me in an interview.

How it all began

During the early years of the Arab Spring uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey opened its borders for refugees. Syrians could obtain 90-day tourist visas at the border. They could then get permits to work in Turkey. This was an enlightened policy compared to other countries that blocked borders or forced refugees into closed camps.

Turkey built refugee camps near populated areas. In 2012, I visited such a camp in which Syrians were allowed to work nearby, and had access to Turkey’s health and education systems. Those with economic resources could rent or buy apartments. The Turkish military encouraged Syrians to join the Free Syrian Army, and continues to train and supply it today.

Turkish authorities assumed refugees would stay briefly and then return to a Syria ruled by Erdoğan allies. But it’s been eight years and counting. Some refugees may never return at all, and more than 385,000 children have been born to Syrian parents living in Turkey.

Those Syrians who do return most certainly want to go back to their original cities rather than attempt to forge new lives in someone’s else’s house in a predominantly Kurdish region.

Turkey and the Kurds

Kurds are an ethnic minority whose traditional homeland was divided up by colonial powers after World War I. The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its affiliated YPG are the dominant Kurdish force in both Turkey and Syria. They engage in armed struggle with the stated goal of establishing autonomous Kurdish areas in their respective countries, not to create a separate state.

Turkey considerers the PKK a bigger threat than ISIS. When the YPG appeared ready to win control of a contiguous territory in northern Syria, Turkey invaded and brutally attacked the traditionally Kurdish stronghold of Afrin. Turkey established military bases and now controls an area in Syria west of the Euphrates River, which includes a largely Kurdish population.

The Turkish government, according to analyst Ülgen, has developed a plan for long-term rule of the Kurds in Syria. First, Turkey seeks to implement “safe zones,” in which the U.S. and Turkey jointly operate military bases and conduct patrols. With military enforced “stability” returned to the area, Turkey would begin reconstruction and encourage Syrian refugees to return, even those not originally from the area.

The U.S. and Turkey agreed in August to create safe zones, but so far Ankara is far more enthusiastic than Washington. The safe zone agreement lacks specifics as to exact location or responsibility. The U.S. and Turkish military have held few joint patrols and set up no joint bases.

It’s increasingly apparent that the Pentagon agreed to the safe zone to pacify Turkey but, so far, is reluctant to implement it.

The governments of Syria, Russia and Iran also oppose the Turkish safe zone as a severe violation of Syrian sovereignty.

Possible Solutions

Late last year, President Donald Trump precipitously announced the immediate withdrawal of US troops from Syria. The Turkish army prepared to invade northern Syria, and the YPG was ready to fight as urban guerrillas. Such a war could kill hundreds or perhaps thousands of civilians. It could also could lead to the release of ISIS prisoners and their supporters now held in several YPG camps.

The crisis could end if the YPG and Syrian government negotiated a political settlement that allowed for democratic reforms and Kurdish autonomy. Both sides could guarantee the security of the Turkish-Syrian border and demand withdrawal of U.S. and Turkish troops.

But so far, preliminary talks between the two sides haven’t gotten far. A fragile peace prevails in northern Syria, but Turkish leaders await an opportunity to send more troops. So far international and domestic pressure from the opposition Republican People’s Party have blocked large-scale, forcible resettlement of refugees. Let’s hope reason and humanity prevail.

Two Things That Were Never Going To Mesh: Trump And Intelligence

Were Trump national security chief Michael Flynn and his crackpot son, Michael Flynn Jr, going to break into Fethullah Gulen's heavily guarded compound in Stroudsburg, kill all the guards, and put a bag over Gulen's head and bundle him off in a private jet to the tiny island where Billy Hayes of Midnight Express fame was put? All to collect $15 million from Turkey's fascist dictator, Recep Tayyip Erdogan? Sounds far-fetched even for Trump's 3 Stooges kakistocracy. But... it was Murdoch's stuffy Wall Street Journal that broke the story of how the 2 Flynn's were to be paid millions to forcibly remove Fethullah Gulen from U.S. and deliver him to Turkish custody. Luckily, Bob Mueller is on the case.

Under the alleged proposal, Mr. Flynn and his son, Michael Flynn Jr., were to be paid as much as $15 million for delivering Fethullah Gulen to the Turkish government, according to people with knowledge of discussions Mr. Flynn had with Turkish representatives. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has pressed the U.S. to extradite him, views the cleric as a political enemy.

Federal Bureau of Investigation agents have asked at least four individuals about a meeting in mid-December at the ‘21’ Club in New York City, where Mr. Flynn and representatives of the Turkish government discussed removing Mr. Gulen, according to people with knowledge of the FBI’s inquiries. The discussions allegedly involved the possibility of transporting Mr. Gulen on a private jet to the Turkish prison island of Imrali, according to one of the people who has spoken to the FBI.

...[F]ederal investigators’ interest in whether Mr. Flynn was pursuing potentially illegal means to forcibly deal with Mr. Gulen indicates that the former Trump adviser faces another investigation stemming from his work on behalf of Turkish government interests, both before and after the presidential election.

...Before entering the Trump administration as the president’s national security adviser, Mr. Flynn was lobbying on behalf of Turkish interests in the U.S., including on the Gulen issue. He didn’t disclose that work until March of this year, after he was forced out of the White House for misleading Vice President Mike Pence and other White House officials about conversations he had with the Russian ambassador to the U.S. Mr. Flynn served as national security adviser for just 24 days.

He is now facing military, congressional and criminal investigations into allegations that he improperly concealed his financial ties to Turkey and Russia, and into whether the ties played any role in his decisions as the president’s adviser, the Wall Street Journal has previously reported.

One person familiar with the alleged discussions about Mr. Gulen said Mr. Flynn also was prepared to use his influence in the White House to further the legal extradition of the cleric, who lives in Pennsylvania.

Mr. Gulen’s legal residency in the U.S. became a major irritant in American and Turkish relations during the Obama administration, and Turkish officials pressed for Mr. Gulen’s extradition so that he could face charges. Mr. Erdogan’s government has accused the cleric of masterminding a failed coup and have called him and his supporters a terrorist network. Mr. Gulen denies both accusations.

The alleged meeting in New York in December, which came after Mr. Flynn was tapped as national security adviser, was a follow-up to an earlier discussion, on Sept. 19, where Turkish officials first raised the possibility of forcibly removing Mr. Gulen. That September meeting, held in a hotel and attended by former CIA Director James Woolsey,was reported earlier by the Journal.

Mr. Gulen’s removal was discussed as “a covert step in the dead of night to whisk this guy away,” according to Mr. Woolsey, who said he attended the meeting at the request of one of Mr. Flynn’s business associates.

Also present at the September meeting were Mr. Erdogan’s son-in-law and Turkey’s foreign minister, foreign-lobbying disclosure documents show. The Turkish Embassy has previously acknowledged that Turkish officials met with Mr. Flynn but declined to discuss the conversation.

...In Mr. Flynn, the Turks found a more sympathetic ear. Mr. Flynn wrote an op-ed published in The Hill on the day of the presidential election in which he praised Mr. Erdogan’s government and called the cleric “a shady Islamic mullah” and “radical Islamist” who may be running “a dangerous sleeper terror network” in the U.S.

“We should not provide him safe haven,” Mr. Flynn wrote.

Mr. Woolsey said he informed the U.S. government about the September meeting by notifying Vice President Joe Biden through a mutual friend.

The mutual friend confirmed to the Journal that he told Mr. Biden about the meeting. Mr. Biden’s spokeswoman declined to comment on the matter, other than to say Mr. Biden felt the Gulen matter should be handled through the courts.

Mr. Woolsey, who served briefly as an adviser to the Trump campaign, said he turned down a consulting fee from Mr. Flynn’s company because of what he heard at the meeting.

Federal records show that the company, Flynn Intel Group, was paid $530,000 for advocacy work that “could be construed to have principally benefited the Republic of Turkey.”

Federal investigators are currently looking at whether Mr. Flynn’s work on behalf of Turkey violated the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which requires people to disclose when they are acting in the U.S. on behalf of foreign powers, according to people with knowledge of the investigation.

...The Journal reported in March that Mr. Flynn had sought immunity from investigators probing Russia’s interference in the presidential election in exchange for his testimony. Mr. Flynn’s attorney, Mr. Kelner, wouldn’t comment at the time on details of his discussions involving Mr. Flynn, but said “General Flynn certainly has a story to tell, and he very much wants to tell it, should the circumstances permit.”

Over the weekend, Trump was, once again, making a case for ending the investigation, telling the press that Putin-- a murderer, a tyrant, a rapacious kleptocrat and a former KGB agent practiced in deceit and manipulation with an abiding and motivational hatred for America-- had told him that Russia didn't interfere in the U.S. elections and that he's insulted at the inference. Bad enough that Trump would say it (and claim to believe it)... but the Russian government denies Putin and Trump exchanged any words on the topic at all. Trump just made the whole thing up! And, making Trump look even worse, his beloved CIA director, Mike Pompeo, released a statement right after Trump's latest nonsense backing up the U.S. intelligence findings that Russia did indeed meddle in the elections.

Turkey Kisses Democracy Güle Güle

I've been to Turkey a dozen times; I love the country. On my first trip there I was just a kid in a VW camper van on the way to India. But I stayed for a month, visiting parts of the country few tourists ever see. And I've tried tried going back as frequently as possible, always to new parts of the country I hadn't been to-- as well as to Istanbul over and over. As with all places I like enough to go again and again, it's because of the people. In Turkey I first experienced the boundless generosity and hospitality of people towards a stranger. I was sad today to see the returns from Turkey's referendum come in, as the election-- in which independent observers report was marked by massive fraud and even murders in the Kurdish east-- went narrowly for tyrant Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Turks living abroad voted no. And Turks in the 3 biggest urban centers-- Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir-- voted no.

But in the end, rural conservatives decided Turkey's little experiment with democracy had gone on long enough and they voted to end it. Even with all the violence and cheating Erdoğan's referendum only passed 24,325,985 (51.20%) to 23,189,021 (48.80%), which seems a little tight to take a country from a democracy to a dictatorship. The new system will be implemented after the elections in November, 2019.

The results of today's constitutional referendum will make official what Turkey has been slipping into over the last couple of years-- a presidential dictatorship. After the failed coup last July, Erdoğan purged over 130,000 people working for the government, launched a war against the media-- arresting 200 journalists and shuttering 149 media outlets-- and detained over 100,000 people. The referendum gives him an even great degree of absolute power over all branches of government. And all in the name of... you guessed it, "terrorism."

Do you wonder what would make people give up their own freedom to a tyrant? Today's Independent offered a good perspective on what happened in Turkey, pointing out that the instability in and around Turkey "has enabled him to project the strongman image that may just allow him to extend his powers. Those sweeping new powers will turn the largely ceremonial presidential role he now holds into a nearly all-powerful position as head of government, head of state and head of the ruling party."

To his supporters Mr Erdogan is a man who has given a voice to the working and middle-class religious Turks who had felt marginalised by the country's Western-leaning elite. He was seen to have ushered in a period of stability and economic prosperity, building roads, schools, hospitals and airports in previously neglected areas.

Others see him as pushing too much of a religious line in a nation that was built on the secular aspirations of Turkey’s modern founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

The constitutional amendments would give the president the power to appoint ministers and government officials, to name half the members of the country's highest judicial body, to issue decrees and to declare states of emergency.

That raises the alarm for many. Mr Erdogan has long-faced accusations by critics of using the judiciary to silence opponents, and journalists groups have often spoken out of the stifling of their freedom to report-- with many more civilians worried about the implications of a move to ‘one-man rule.’ Hence the close result in the referendum.

Despite what many citizens see as Mr Erdogan’s commitment to the safety of his country’s citizens from the multitude of threats they currently face, as he has become more powerful, his critics say he has become increasingly authoritarian.

His election campaigns have been forceful and bitter, with Mr Erdogan lashing out at his opponents, accusing them of endangering the country and even supporting terrorism-- either in Syria or the insurgency of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Would Trump's Fan Boys Accept A Sultanate Without A Throne?

You know what's not really funny? It's not really funny that the low IQ/prescription drug-addled Trump supporters use Kellyanne Con-man's fictional Bowling Green Massacre-- a typical Trumpist #alt-fact-- to justify their belief that Trump should seize dictatorial powers. Yes,most Trump fans-- not all, just most, including every single one I've ever met-- are morons. That they have the right to vote is as horrifying as the German voters in 1933 who made the Nazi Party the biggest party in Germany. Same people-- completely and utterly the same people. You want to see a Nazi moron? Go talk to a Trump supporter. You probably watched this Alexandra Pelosi video before. Watch it again... these idiots have put our country in very great danger:



For whatever reason-- whether the abuse of heavy debilitating drugs or just innate-- or cultivated-- stupidity or Hate Talk Radio/Fox News brainwashing-- the Trump supporters can't seem to distinguish from fake news and reality. Nor do they want to. That's how Trump won and that's how Trump maintains even his puny 43% approval rating. Yes, Trump is already the most detested president in American history, but he does have his supporters. (And nothing's going to change their minds-- short of, perhaps, detox regiments and starting overrun the 3rd grade. Just look at that video again.)

When I warn people that Trump is another Hitler or Mussoliini or perhaps another Putin, I always get pushback reminding me that Trump is more like Turkish would-be dictator Recep Tayyip Erdoğan than like these more classic examples of modern day tyrants. And we've compared Trump and Erdoğan even before Putin managed to install Trump in the White House. Friday, the BBC predicts that after the April 16 referendum in Turkey, Erdoğan will no longer be a would-be dictator, but a bona fide dictator.

On the surface, it might seem a proposal that would enjoy cross-party consensus: modernising Turkey's constitution that was drawn up at the behest of the once-omnipotent military after the coup of 1980.

But instead it's arguably the most controversial political change in a generation, becoming in effect a referendum on the country's powerful but divisive President Erdogan.

The plan would turn Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential republic, more akin to the United States. Among the numerous changes:

• The role of prime minister would be scrapped. The new post of vice president, possibly two or three, would be created.
• The president would become the head of the executive, as well as the head of state, and retain ties to a political party.
• He or she would be given sweeping new powers to appoint ministers, prepare the budget, choose the majority of senior judges and enact certain laws by decree.
• The president alone would be able to announce a state of emergency and dismiss parliament.
• Parliament would lose its right to scrutinise ministers or propose an enquiry. However, it would be able to begin impeachment proceedings or investigate the president with a majority vote by MPs. Putting the president on trial would require a two-thirds majority.
• The number of MPs would increase from 550 to 600.
• Presidential and parliamentary elections would be held on the same day every five years. The president would be limited to two terms.

The government-- and, principally, President Erdogan-- argue that the reforms would streamline decision-making and avoid the unwieldy parliamentary coalitions that have hamstrung Turkey in the past.

Since the president is no longer chosen by parliament but now elected directly by the people, goes the argument, he or she should not have to contend with another elected leader (the prime minister) to enact laws.

The current system is, they say, holding back Turkey's progress. They even argue that the change could somehow end the extremist attacks that have killed more than 500 people in the past 18 months.

A presidential system is all very well in a country with proper checks and balances like the United States, retort critics, where an independent judiciary has shown itself willing to stand up to Donald Trump and a rigorous free press calls him out on contentious policies.

But in Turkey, where judicial independence has plummeted and which now ranks 151 of 180 countries in the press freedom index of the watchdog Reporters Without Borders, an all-powerful president would spell the death knell of democracy, they say.

Mr Erdogan's opponents already decry his slide to authoritarianism, presiding over the world's biggest jailer of journalists and a country where some 140,000 people have been arrested, dismissed or suspended since the failed coup last year. Granting him virtually unfettered powers, says the main opposition CHP, would "entrench dictatorship."

"The jury is out," says Ahmet Kasim Han, a political scientist from Kadir Has University. "It doesn't look as bad as the opposition paints it and it's definitely not as benevolent as the government depicts it. The real weakness is that in its hurry to pass the reform, the government hasn't really explained the 2,000 laws that would change. So it doesn't look bright, especially with this government's track record."

The governing AK Party had to rely on parliamentary votes from the far-right MHP to lead the country to a referendum. For long, the MHP leader, Devlet Bahceli, opposed the presidential system: "The Turkish nation has never allowed a Hitler," he once said, "and it will not allow Erdogan to get away with this," calling it the recipe for "a sultanate without a throne."

But arm-twisting and rumours that he could be offered one of the vice presidential posts has prompted a spectacular U-turn. The question now is whether he can persuade his party to follow. The party's deputy chairman and several local MHP officials have already resigned over Mr Bahceli's stance.

"It seems this is not going Bahceli's way," says Dr Kasim Han. "But the naysayers may not feel able to go against the party culture by contradicting the leader."

Opposition to the reform is led by the centre-left CHP and the pro-Kurdish HDP parties, the latter of which has been portrayed by the government as linked to terrorism. Several of its MPs and the party leaders are now in prison.

AKP and MHP voters who oppose the reform may feel pressured into voting in favour, so as not to be tarnished as supporting "terrorists," especially since the referendum will take place under the state of emergency imposed after the attempted coup.

"Holding the vote under this state of emergency makes it susceptible to allegations that people don't feel free to say no," says Dr Kasim Han. "It casts a shadow over the outcome."

Polling has been contradictory and Turkish opinion pollsters are notoriously politicised. But all signs point to a very tight race.

With the detail of the constitutional reform impenetrable to many, the referendum has become focused around Mr Erdogan himself: a president who elicits utmost reverence from one side of the country and intense hatred from the other.

The decision as to whether to grant him the powers he's long coveted will determine the political fate of this deeply troubled but hugely important country.