Will The Anti-Red Wave Continue To Grow?

Longtime Harlem Congressman Charlie Rangel (retired) was on the air with John Catsimatidis yesterday and he explained what Trump, a former campaign contributor of his, has done to the political system. "It is a terrible thing because it doesn’t give Americans an opportunity to vote on the issues. It’s either you’re for Trump or against Trump... The worst that we have in America has joined up with Trump and good Republicans have nowhere to go."

That's been manifesting itself in special elections all year and now, very strongly, in the polls. Take Iowa, for example. Up for re-election are the state's 4 members of Congress (3 Republicans and one Democrat) and the state's Republican governor, Kim Reynolds. A poll for the Des Moines Register released Sunday shows that Democrat Fred Hubbell is beating incumbent Kim Reynolds 43-41% in a state Trump won by ten points in 2016. The worst news for Republicans is that "Among independent voters, who represent the largest share of registered voters in the state, Hubbell leads Reynolds 40 percent to 34 percent. Twelve percent say they support Porter, and 14 percent are unsure... Hubbell also leads among Iowans who say they did not vote in the 2014 midterm election, by 41 percent to Reynolds’ 31 percent. Selzer said that could be an indication he’s drawing support beyond the traditional Democratic base, from people who are not regular midterm voters." As for the makeup of the state's congressional delegation, it may well go from 3 Republicans and 1 Democrat to 3 Democrats and 1 Republican or if everything keeps going they way they have... 4 Democrats and no Republicans! (Contribute to J.D. Scholten's campaign for the Steve King seat here.)

We find a similar story just north of Iowa in Minnesota, where early voting has already begun and where Republicans had been making gains in recent years. Trump seems to have brought that trend to a screeching halt. As J. Patrick Coolican wrote ominously for the StarTribune over the weekend, "because politics has become so nationalized, an unpopular president portends bad things for his party."

Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 45 percent to 39 percent, while 56 percent disapprove of his handling of the job, according to our recent Minnesota Poll, which was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy in partnership with MPR News. The pollster conducted 800 interviews, with a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.

The question is whether Minnesota voters who disapprove of Trump will take out their frustrations on Republican candidates-- yes, it may seem strange, but voters often choose legislative candidates based on how they feel about the president.

Perhaps most surprising and most troubling for the GOP: Trump’s approval rating in southern Minnesota is just 40 percent, which belies the conventional wisdom that Trump is popular in greater Minnesota.

In other results, Democrats are safely ahead of Republicans in nearly every major statewide race. U.S. Rep. Tim Walz leads Jeff Johnson by 9 points in the governor’s race, U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is up big over Jim Newberger, and U.S. Sen. Tina Smith leads state Sen. Karin Housley by 7 points.

How will this play out in House races? Let's look at the 8 seats. The Republicans thought they had a slam-dunk to take Democrat Tim Walz's open seat in a district Trump won 53.3% to 38.4%. Their candidate, Jim Hagedorn, hasn't been able to make the sale and it's now a dead-heat in an R+5 district. If the wave is strong enough, Dan Feehan will be sworn in as MN-01 congressman in January, not Hagedorn. In MN-02 Angie Craig (D) is clobbering Republican incumbent Jason Lewis.

Same in the 3rd district, where Dean Phillips is beating Republican incumbent Erik Paulsen by an even greater margin! These two Twin Cities suburban seats are becoming an elephant's graveyard this cycle, entirely because of voter antipathy towards Trump. Phillips and Craig are both weak candidates who will be swept into Congress because of a Trump-inspired anti-red wave.

Democrats have no viable opponents in MN-04 (Betty McCollum), MN-05 (Ilhan Omar) and MN-07 (Collin Peterson-- a district Trump won by THIRTY points!) and the Republicans have no viable opponents in MN-06 (Tom Emmer). So that leaves MN-08, another one the NRCC thought was an easy pick-up. Rick Nolan is retiring. The PVI is R+4 and Trump beat Hillary 54.2% to 38.6%. But despite Republican Pete Stauber spending 3 times more money that Democrat Joe Radinovich, this is another dead heat race that will depend on the size and strength of the wave on election day.

Before we get down into the nitty gritty of how this is playing out on the national stage, one more bit of background, this from Jonathan Martin at the NY Times over the weekend: Kavanaugh Was Supposed To Be A Midterm Boon For the GOP. Not Anymore. Martin reported that "With Judge Kavanaugh and his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, tentatively scheduled to testify this week before the Senate Judiciary Committee, and many women furious over President Trump’s attacks on Dr. Blasey, a Supreme Court nomination that was once seen as a political winner in many conservative-leaning states could, instead, rouse female voters and independents who otherwise may have cared little about the confirmation fight... Suburban women are pivotal in this year’s campaign and many of them were already tilting toward Democrats because of their contempt for President Trump. If Republicans are too harsh in their questioning of Dr. Blasey, they risk inviting an even greater backlash at the ballot box in an election where their House majority is in peril and their one-vote Senate majority is teetering."

OK, and that takes us right to the new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal. To begin with, 52% of registered voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing (45% strongly). 44% approve (29% strongly). The Republican Party is viewed negatively by 44% of likely voters and 32% positively, as opposed to the Democratic Party, which is viewed negatively and positively by 38% of registered voters.

Kavanaugh is viewed positively by 27% and negatively by 30%.

And when asked which party they would prefer in control of Congress, 52% say the Democrats and 40% say the Republicans.

Most voters-- and most independent voters-- want their vote to send a signal that they want to see a Democratic Congress as a check on and balance for Trump.

Sixty-five percent of registered Democrats say they’re very interested in the midterms-- registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale-- compared with 61 percent of Republicans who say the same thing.

That narrow 4-point advantage for Democrats is down from their leads of 11 points in August (63 percent to 52 percent) and 16 points in July (65 percent to 49 percent).

The groups with the highest level of interest in the election: Seniors (73 percent register either a “9” or “10), Democrats (65 percent), whites (61 percent), Republicans (61 percent) and African Americans (53 percent).

The groups with the lowest level of interest: Independents (37 percent) and those ages 18-34 (35 percent).

Worrying: younger voters are not enthusiastic about voting, nor are independents, two groups many Democratic candidates have been counting on to get them over the finish line, especially in red districts. Democratic candidates have to ask themselves what will help more in the final weeks of campaigning-- appealing to seniors or trying to enthuse younger voters. Where they allocate scarce resources could determine the results in November.

DCCC Moves To Sabotage Progressive Candidates In Minnesota For Two Wealthy New Dems

Jeff Erdmann and Adam Jennings, the 2 Minnesota progressives the DCCC is trying to tank

The Minnesota primary isn't until August 14 this year. But the DCCC isn't waiting. They've already endorsed two conservative candidates from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, New Dems Angie Craig (MN-02) and Dean Phillips (MN-03). Both have normal Democrats competing in the primary but Pelosi, Hoyer, Crowley and Lujan are insisting on picking their own right-of-center candidates instead of waiting for Minnesota voters to nominate candidates. Jeff Erdmann is the progressive in MN-02 the DCCC is working to sabotage and Adam Jennings is the progressive running in the MN-03 primary. Erdmann and Jennings are both independent-minded progressives advocating Medicare-for-All, while Craig and Phillips are garden variety centrists who speak vaguely about healthcare and will do whatever they are told by party bosses in DC.

MN-02 (south of the Twin Cities) is one of the most evenly matched and competitive districts in the country. The PVI is R+2. Obama won it very narrowly, both times-- and by less than 300 votes out of over 360,000 in 2012-- while Trump squeezed by Hillary by 0.2% in 2016. Incumbent Jason Lewis beat Angie Craig 173,970 (47%) to 167,315 (45.2%).

MN-03 (west of Minneapolis) is bluer. Obama won by bigger margins both times and Hillary beat Trump 50.8% to 41.4%. The PVI is D+1. The DCCC put up a weak, uninspiring EMILY's List candidate, Terri Bonoff, who did miserably-- 169,243 votes (43%) to Erik Paulsen's 223,077 (56.7%). Dean Phillips is just like her, which is the only kind of candidate the DCCC is ever comfortable with-- the reason they've lost dozens and dozens of seats in blue districts over the last decade and the reason they can only win in wave elections.

This week Minnesota Public Radio reported that Minnesota Democrats-- like Democrats in Texas and California are furious that the DCCC is sticking its nose into the state's primaries. Jeff Erdmann and Adam Jennings have raised competitive money and are both complaining that the DCCC has it's fingers-- well, hands and feet-- on the scales for the conservative, establishment candidates. Remember, Minnesota Democrats picked Bernie in both districts. He beat Hillary 58.2% to 41.8% in MN-02 and he beat her 53.3% to 46.7% in MN-03. The DCCC doesn't give a damn that the voters in the two districts want change, not status quo. They insist on two status quo multimillionaire, middle of the road candidates.

"To feel that they need to come in and put their thumb on the scale for the candidate that has all kinds of personal wealth, you know that's frustrating that they're trying to taint the system," Erdmann said.

DCCC officials made it clear money drove their choice to back Craig, he added.

"We didn't talk anything about my background, my success as a teacher, as a coach any of the values that I hold. All they wanted to talk about was where we thought we could get money-wise."

Officials with the DCCC did not respond to numerous interview requests.

In Minnesota's 3rd District in the western suburbs, another wealthy Democrat, Dean Phillips, also won early DCCC backing.

Democrat Adam Jennings is also in the race and hoping for the chance to run against Republican U.S. Rep. Erik Paulsen. Jennings said the DCCC wouldn't even speak with him.

"There is kind of an establishment big-money component to all of this, and the more I think about it the more motivated I get to run."

Jennings said the DCCC's choice to weigh in early has hurt his ability to raise money. He said potential supporters have denied him campaign contributions because national Democrats have decided to back Phillips.

The DCCC has not openly campaigned against the Minnesota Democrats it did not choose to back.

[Minnesota DFL Party Chair Ken Martin:] "Ultimately Minnesotans don't respond very well to being told what to do by folks in Washington, D.C."

The DCCC campaign activity comes after a presidential election where some Democrats accused the Democratic National Committee of favoring Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders.

Erdmann argues Washington desperately needs people like him in Congress as income inequality and corporate power are on the rise.

"This is the perfect time to have regular working-class people get elected into office," he said, "so that we can have a seat at the table and stand up for our interests and our values."

Is Dean Phillips A Good Candidate? How Will He Be If He Gets To Congress?

How would a New Dem "repair" the government? Turn it over to the banksters?

Last night one of my favorite candidates of the cycle was in town and we had dinner. He was very enthusiastic about another candidate he had just met in Minnesota, Dean Phillips, the DCCC-favored candidate to take on Republican incumbent Erik Paulsen in the suburbs west of Minneapolis (MN-03), an arc that goes from Bloomington, Edina and Eden Prairie, through Minnetonka, Plymouth and Maple Grove up to Champlin, Brooklyn Park and Coon Rapids. Obama won the district both times and Hillary beat Trump by 9 points. The district's PVI is D+1. Still, Paulsen was reelected with an even bigger margin-- 56.7% to 43%-- than the Clinton win over Trump. He ran against a weak DCCC/EMILY's List centrist candidate, Terri Bonoff. The DCCC spent $3,330,152 attacking Paulsen and Pelosi's SuperPAC threw in another $568,897. And the DCCC wants to make sure it runs another centrist (of course). There are 4 Democrats running but the DCCC isn't waiting for MN-03 DFL voters to pick one; they've already added Phillips to their Red to Blue page in an attempt to clear the field of the other, more progressive, candidates. Voters don't like when the DCCC does this, but the DCCC is incapable of learning anything. They exist in a self-referencing DC bubble and have no understanding of America at all-- which explains why they've been on an uninterrupted losing streak since Pelosi took over.

Phillips' bio says he's the grandson of Dear Abby and that he went to work in the Phillips Distilling Company warehouse and rose to be CEO... albeit without mentioning his dad owned the company. His bio also doesn't mention he's a New Dem. The graphic above is from the DCCC website and the one below is from the New Dems website.

I have to admit, I've never spoken with Phillips and he may be a lovely man. But I do know that the New Dems have very stringent vetting process and they will not endorse anyone who doesn't fit the Wall Street agenda they are all about. Along with the Blue Dogs,the New Dems are the heart and soul of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. An overwhelming number of New Dems, in fact, are also Blue Dogs, and almost every Blue Dog is a New Dem. Good members of Congress-- those fighting for ordinary working families-- are not in the New Dems. The New Dems exist to serve special interests, especially Wall Street special interests.

I met Harley Rouda, one of the candidates running to replace Putin's favorite congressman, Dana Rohrabacher, in Orange County's CA-48, a few months ago. He came over to my house and we had a great chat and he seemed like a personable guy and a decent candidate. Then the New Dems endorsed him and I started viewing him through that prism. He's probably going to win his race-- and he's decidedly better than the DCCC's first choice in that district, Hans Keirstead-- but I already know what his voting record is going to be like in Congress. The New Dems don't endorse people unless they're very sure there won't be any tendencies to be "too" progressive. It's a Wall Street-owned PAC and they don't fool around. So far Rouda, an ex-Republican, has self-funded 60% of his campaign ($730,500). That kind of attitude about buying a congressional seat should always set off alarm bells.

In CA-48, I've spent time-- online, on the phone and in person-- with Laura Oatman, the progressive in the race. My bet is that she's make a much better member of Congress, but she's being drowned out by the 2 New Dems, Harley ($1,225,534) and Hans ($855,340, of which $220,400 is self-funding). Another candidate in that race, carpetbagger Omar Siddiqui, has self-funded 80% of his campaign ($458,498) and campaigns openly as a "Reagan Democrat." Laura's campaign is more of a grassroots effort and she's raised $213,268. Perhaps she's waiting for the DCCC to bigfoot into the campaign against her, a move that could bring her more attention, the same way it did Laura Moser in Houston.

So... back to Minnesota. I don't know the 4 DFL candidates and I'd rather see who MN-03 voters decide the nominee is before wading into that one. The DCCC and New Dems sitting on the scale for Phillips, though, makes me very suspicious that he'd be a terrible member of Congress, just like almost all of the New Dems already in Congress are.

Sunday, DFA sent out an email to their members entitled "Some Democrats just never learn." It was more about Senate Democrats than the House Democrats we usually deal with here at DWT. "Donald Trump's allies in the Senate decided to move forward with the Bank Lobbyist Act, a bill that would massively deregulate the majority of big banks and make it easier for banks to use discriminatory and fraudulent practices," they wrote. "One would think that this would be a no-brainer bill for Democrats to oppose. Democratic voters are not clamoring for bank deregulation-- in fact, quite the opposite. Ten years later, many working families are still recovering from the last financial collapse caused by greedy big banks. But 16 Senate Democrats voted to help destroy key regulations against the big Wall Street banks. This is unacceptable. And it's exactly the type of behavior that could reverse the 'blue wave' Democrats are dreaming of in November. The young voters, voters of color and working families that the Democrats need to turn out this fall want to see representatives who will fight for them-- not give everything away to Wall Street."

That's the New Dem mentality they're railing against. They quoted Elizabeth Warren to illustrate what they're talking about:

"There’s Democratic and Republican support because the lobbyists have been pushing since the first day Dodd-Frank passed to weaken the regulations on these giant banks. People in this building may forget the devastating impact of the financial crisis 10 years ago, but the American people have not forgotten... the millions of people who lost their homes; the millions of people who lost their jobs; the millions of people who lost their savings, they remember and they do not want to turn lose the big banks again."

And, as DFA said-- We can't afford to keep electing Democrats who are bought and owned by Wall Street. We need progressive fighters who will push back on corporate corruption in every sector, from every level of government. If someone is a New Dem or a Blue Dog, you can be very sure they are exactly the problem DFA and Elizabeth Warren are talking about. Don't be fooled again.