Congressional Progressive Caucus Stepping Up Its Game-- Policy And Politics

On Sunday we ran a post of how conservatives-- of both parties-- are helping special interests to undermine Medicare-For-All, Those Dirty Republican Dogs Trying To Kill Medicare-For-All! Oh... As you can imagine, the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC), is mobilized to defend the bill and to keep pushing it forward. Yesterday, the author of the new and improved version of Medicare-For-All, Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), who is also co-chair of the CPC, explained how she sees that's going on with those corporate attacks against the legislation:

We have always known that the for-profit insurance and pharmaceutical companies will pour hundreds of millions of dollars into defeating a real plan for universal health care--because they know it will mean curbing the massive profits and CEO salaries they are taking out of the system even as people die because they can’t afford insulin treatments, exploding drug prices or ever-increasing premiums and deductibles. But things have shifted dramatically over the past years and today, people are with us on the need for Medicare-for-All.

Today, we have won the debate around the need for universal health care. The majority of Americans believe health care is a right and not a privilege. Almost every American has a story to tell about choosing between paying rent and getting medical treatments; skipping prescriptions; or watching a loved one die because they waited too long to see the doctor. And Americans increasingly watch in shock as U.S. health outcomes stay the worst of all our peer countries-- even as we spend the most of any industrialized country in the world on healthcare.

Our coalition this time around includes major labor unions who, in some cases, are endorsing my bill for the first time; disability rights, seniors and women’s groups to see Medicare-for-All as necessary for survival of all these communities; small- and medium sized businesses who know that the costs of healthcare are crippling their ability to be competitive; and nurses and physicians who are frustrated that they have to spend so much time on administrative waste instead of saving lives. We have more to do, but we start with the moral and economic imperative on our side to reform this broken system.

Every time someone asks about the cost of our program, I would turn the question back and ask if they know the cost of our CURRENT system. In 2019, the US is projected to spend $3.9 trillion-- an amount that is projected to increase to $5.5 trillion by 2025. Even conservative think tanks estimate that moving to a Medicare-for-All system will actually save at least $2 trillion over a decade-- while providing comprehensive care for everyone and reducing the healthcare expenditures of the average American family by 14% according to some estimates.

This won’t be easy. But no great leap in any civilization is ever easy. And if the American people continue to speak out about their experiences with our broken health care system, the costs their families are bearing RIGHT NOW, and demand that we re-orient our system to put patients over profits, we will win.

The CPC has learned that one battlefield that they must fight on if they are going to be able to deliver on aggressive legislation, like Medicare-For-All, is electoral. Unlike the conservative Blue Dogs and New Dems, the CPC hasn't had any kind of real, substantive operation to recruit and support progressive candidates for Congress. That ended today when Pramila, Mark Pocan and Jamie Raskin hired progressive firebrand David Keith as the CPC's first ever political director.

David Keith-- tracking down Trump campaign's finances

Keith was the campaign manager for one Los Angeles's most progressive state legislators, Jimmy Gomez, when Gomez ran, successfully, for Congress. Today, Gomez is a member of the CPC and boasts one of the most spectacularly progressive records in Congress. Keith also worked for another strongly-progressive CPC member Chuy Garcia. Last cycle, he piloted the campaign of Randy Bryce-- IronStache-- which scared Paul Ryan into retiring halfway through the campaign. In the end, Ryan's Wisconsin district was just too red for Bryce without Ryan in it, but the campaign was inspirational nationally and Bryce has started his own organization that endeavors to help working class candidates prepare for congressional runs. That aspect, bringing more candidates from working class backgrounds into Congress, was not lost on Keith or the CPC.

Former DCCC west coast regional vice chair Ted Lieu, like other members of the CPC who have worked with David, is enthusiastic about the hire. He told us he commends "the Progressive Caucus leadership team on their choice of David Keith to head up our recruitment operation. David is a proven campaign staffer with all the necessary progressive bona fides to be an exceptional political director. He did an excellent job running a campaign for Jimmy Gomez and he is a welcome addition to our CPC staff."

This is a great position for him-- and for progressives in electoral politics-- and he told us that he's "thrilled to be joining the Caucus’s PAC as Political Director because I’ve always believed in striking when the iron’s hot. Progressive messages find such popularity today not because they are poll tested and focus grouped to death, but rather because they are rooted in policies that are intended to help people in real, tangible ways. For a long time I’ve felt that progressives have all too often been pushed aside by the political class and as a result, have not afforded the opportunities to run robust campaigns. That will change. From recruitment to fundraising, to operations, the PAC is going to fire on all cylinders. Bottom line: we will win races and elect progressives to Congress in November 2020."

Keith told us yesterday that he's looking for strong candidates who fit their districts and who can win races. He believes strongly that Congress needs more diversity to best represent America-- more women, more people of color, more young people, more people from the working class, more people with independent minds and string ideas. "Look how Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is inspiring people across the country," he said. "She's even showing members of Congress that there are new ways of reaching their constituents and bringing real representative democracy to life beyond the pages of civics books... She fits her district perfectly. And look at Joe Neguse in Boulder. He has a different style but he's also a strong fighter and an inspiration figure, working to represent people in Colorado eager for a more progressive approach to governance."

Keith told us that he wants to help candidates with good ideas and with passion put together strong campaigns that will help them win elections so they can put those ideas and that passionate work in Congress. Many candidates need assistance," he said, "to staff and structure a campaign and to finance a congressional run without having to resort to taking money with strings attached."

Is Paul Ryan Leaving Congress?

I'm looking at internal polling and results of focus groups and there just is no way Ryan can run in WI-01 in 2018. This district is about 30% Republican and 30% Democrat and 40% independent. In the last few elections the independents have come down-- slightly-- on the GOP side. That isn't how they feel now. They don't like Trump and they see Ryan as an enabler. Huge numbers of them are closed to even listening to his message. If Ryan wants to run for president some day-- and he does-- he can't be beaten in his home district by a union iron worker. Yesterday Brent Budowsky, writing for The Hill, predicted Ryan won't run. He expects Ryan to announce his retirement from Congress but that he's "holding back the announcement to avoid House Republicans being devastated by yet another congressional Republican joining the rush to retirement that plagues the GOP today."

Speaker Ryan owes it to his constituents in Wisconsin to make a declarative statement, one way or the other, to make it clear whether he is running or retiring.

Ryan can disprove my prediction that he will not run by making an unequivocal statement about his intentions in 2018. If he does, I will return to this page and humbly admit that this prediction was proven wrong.

Throughout the corridors of the capitol in official Washington, the possibility of a Ryan retirement is generating far more buzz than the media is reporting today.

If Ryan does retire, there will be a huge battle between different GOP factions regarding who should succeed him as speaker. Different groups, from the House Freedom Caucus to more traditional Republicans, are positioning themselves behind the scenes for what would be an epic succession battle.

Ryan would have good reasons to retire, if that is his decision. House Republicans are on the defensive politically. There is a better-than-even chance that Democrats regain control of the House in the midterm elections, which is a major reason why so many House Republicans are announcing their retirement in the first place.

There is widespread speculation that Ryan could run for president in some future election. If he does, he would be a credible candidate. He performed well as the vice-presidential nominee running with Mitt Romney in 2012.

Ryan’s longer-term political problem is that he has chosen to be one of the leading Trump Republicans in national politics, fervently supporting Trump’s legislative agenda and supporting or tolerating the faction of House Republicans who are attacking Robert Mueller, his special counsel team and the FBI. The tighter Ryan is tied to the highly unpopular Trump, the lower the chances he is someday elected president.

Ryan’s short-term problem is far more severe. If Democrats win control of the House in 2018, the House will not be a hospitable place for Ryan and House Republicans, who have spent recent years treating Congress as a one-party Republican state that is widely seen as a bastion of intense support for Trump.

Even worse from Ryan’s point of view, if Democrats gain a significant number of seats in 2018, which is virtually certain, Ryan will find the House ungovernable for Republicans.

If Ryan spends the rest of the current legislative year sabotaging support for the "Dreamers," as one major Republican faction wants him to do, and launching a new attack against highly popular programs, such as Medicare and Social Security, the strong prospect for Democrats regaining control could become a tidal wave leading to a Democratic mega-landslide.

Having spent a half-life working for Democratic leaders in Congress, if Speaker Ryan asked my advice, which he certainly will not, it would be for him to announce he is getting out now.

He will neither enjoy nor politically benefit from the gathering storm that is facing House Republicans today and appears destined to become even worse. This is not conducive to the most happy family or professional life.

If Ryan announces he is retiring this year, the news would be devastating for House Republicans, but the longer he waits, the closer the news gets to the midterm voting, and news of Ryan retiring will create even more catastrophic damage for the GOP.

Whether he chooses to run or not, Ryan owes it to his constituents, his party and the nation to announce his intention to run for re-election and promise to serve a full term, or to promptly announce his days in the House are soon coming to an end.

I predict he leaves. Time will tell.

There's a lot of chatter going on about who the Republican candidate in southeast Wisconsin will be when Ryan retires. Some people were speculating it would be Reince Priebus but the party establishment seems to be settling in on the controversial Robin Vos, owner of RoJo's Popcorn and the ALEC-owned Assembly Speaker.

David Keith, Bryce's campaign manager, who is back from Thailand where he was attacked by a monkey that broke his shoulder and fractured several toes, is looking forward to taking on Ryan but vows to not let him do what the monkey did. "Ryan faces a problem he hasn’t faced yet in his Congressional career," he told us this morning. "He has a problem money can’t fix. He has relied on his war chest to allow him to run absurd amounts of advertising to relatively uninformed voters to create the image of him as a good guy. People often tell me Ryan used to be the 'aww shucks' kind of guy, whatever that means. That was the image money bought him apparently. The problem for him now is he faces someone in Randy Bryce who has caught the attention and captured the imagination of those who had been left behind, and lied to for years. Teflon may be a term used to describe Randy’s growing mass appeal. I prefer to describe it as authenticity. Thousands of Wisconsinites are gravitating to his message because they see themselves in it. When Ryan runs his 30 second spots trying to smear Randy and lie about himself, I don’t believe this massive Bryce coalition will buy it. As a former operative, Ryan understands that, and is clearly thinking of abandoning ship. We hope he runs because we are confident we’ll beat him.”

Want To Know Which Democrats NOT To Vote For In Primaries-- The Blue Dogs And New Dems Have Lists

Elizabeth Warren endorsed Katie Porter, who is very much NOT a New Dem

Last week, we looked at the Blue Dogs' first list of 2018 endorsed candidates. These will be the worst of the worst-- and yesterday the New Dems, who, with the Blue Dogs make up most of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, released their own list. There are a few candidates on both lists. The Blue Dog list is here. Snd these are the New Dems:

• CA-45- Dave Min, a former Chuck Schumer staffer who keeps telling me he's a progressive
• CA-48- Hans Keirstead, a DCCC recruit and Harley Rouda, who wanted to run as a progressive but must have changed his mind
• KS-02- Blue Dog Paul Davis
• MI-08- Elissa Slotkin
• MN-02- Angie Craig
• NE-02- Blue Dog Brad Ashford who boasts a Republican voting record from his one term in Congress
• NJ-11- Mikie Sherrill
• NY-22- Blue Dog Anthony Brindisi
• TX-06- Jana Lynne Sanchez
• TX-23- Blue Dog Jay Hulings
• VA-05- Blue Dog Roger Huffstetler

The bolded districts are the ones that Bernie won in the 2016 primaries.

Chrissy Houlahan, who’s running for Ryan Costello PA-06 seat in suburban Philly, was already on the New Dem list. The New Dems gave them each $1,000 plus "guidance about messaging and strategy," strategy which will be about how to pretend to voters that you're a real Democrat. The PAC is advising candidates how to handle questions about policy issues such as single-payer health insurance. 'The districts like mine-- what we talk about is pragmatism,' said Scott Peters, a very reactionary multimillionaire whop basically always votes against the interests of working families. He is absolutely "not in favor of the current 'Medicare for all' legislation in the House." He boasted to the press that his San Diego district will never vote for Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. He's wrong. The New Dems admit that they are coordinating with the DCCC this cycle.

NewDemPAC reviewed the websites and press releases of candidates being vetted for the list. Candidates also had to participate in brief interviews.

Reviewing the websites? Most of their websites have no issues on them, a New Dem/DCCC strategy for tricking voters into supporting Republican-lite candidates. The other day, a progressive friend told me he wanted to make a very substantial contribution to Elissa Slotkin's campaign and asked me to check her out and advise him. I read what I could find and looked over her website and-- even before the New Dem info came out yesterday-- I was able to advise him against contributing to her. This is the note I sent him:

I don't know her. It's a tough district but not impossible in a wave year. Last year the PVI was R+2 and this year it's worse: R+4, although still winnable in a wave year. So, if she were a good candidate, it wouldn't be a waste.

One of the first things I always check out with a candidate is the issues page on their website. The DCCC tells their candidates to avoid putting up issues pages (because the DCCC is afraid of the progressive issues Democratic primary voters like and assumes general election voters oppose them, which is why the DCCC has been on a losing terrible streak for a decade). Elissa has no issues page. If you want me to talk with her and put her through the Blue America vetting process I'd be happy to; just introduce us. But from what I can see, it looks like she's just an identity-candidate (female military veteran, the DCCC's favorite flavor this year).

So far she hasn't raised the $5,000 that would trigger an FEC report and her GOP opponent has $400,000 in his war-chest. And there seems to be another Democratic woman in the race as well. I smell another DCCC garbage candidate but I'll call around and see what I can find.

I didn't have to call around. The New Dems endorsements came out.

This is what Elizabeth Warren had to say about Katie Porter, one of the progressive candidates for the CA-45 seat: "I trust Katie to fight for working families. I’m fighting for Katie, and I hope you will, too. Katie lives in Orange County, California-- in a district that Hillary Clinton won by five points last November. The Republican Congresswoman who holds that seat has voted with Donald Trump 97.8% of the time this year-- including votes to repeal health care for millions of Americans, defund Planned Parenthood, and gut the rules on Wall Street. Sending Katie to Congress in this winnable district would put us one seat closer to taking back the House in 2018. And Katie will give us another powerful voice in Washington who will stand up to the big banks and powerful corporations and fight for women, students, seniors, immigrants, and working people in her district and all across this country. I’ve seen Katie’s commitment and grit up close and personal. I’ve seen her determination to tell the story of a rigged game. And I’ve seen her put it all on the line to fight for what she believes in. Katie has been my partner in these fights for years-- and she’ll make a terrific partner in Congress."

The other progressive running for the CA-45 seat that Trump rubber stamp Mimi Walters holds, Kia Hamadanchi, has had enough experience in DC to know what the corrupt, Wall Street-owned New Dems are all about. This morning he said, "To be honest I don't know why any real progressive would want to pursue their endorsement. They reached out to us but we decided that it was not worth a response from us. I believe that Democrats need to fight for things like single payer or debt free college and that we shouldn't be afraid to stand for what believe in. We don't need to try and be Republican-lite or take large sums of money from Wall Street or Big Pharma. We lost the 2016 election because people no longer believed that Democrats stood for the interests of working people anymore. If we are really serious about taking back the House in 2018 that perception has to change and we don't get there by trying to be more like the Republican Party."

Rick Treviño is the progressive running in TX-23 on issues directly relating to working families-- not exactly the cup of tea the Blue Dogs or New Dems are remotely interested in. Hulings is perfect for them and would be another terrible choice for South Texas. And Treviño wasn't interested in a New Dem endorsement. "Without any debate or time amongst the constituents of TX 23rd district, the D.C. establishment has picked their candidate. I find it interesting that candidates running to represent the good people of TX 23 are courting the people of Washington and not the people of the district. I have visited 15 cities and driven close to 1500 miles in the last two weeks. I've seen areas without paved roads or schools. I've seen health clinics on the verge of shutting down due to a lack of funding. The people of TX 23rd are sick and tired of D.C. insiders and lobbyists hand picking their representatives. You won't find D.C. in my campaign, you'll only find the good people TX 23rd."

David Keith is widely considered the most talented young campaign manager in America. Randy Bryce was savvy enough to hire him to manage his campaign and Keith took up residence in beautiful-- if sometimes chilly-- Racine for a year and a half. He told us he and Bryce had no interest in Blue Dog or New Dem endorsements and that they're feeling a sense of solidarity to be the Congressional Progressive Caucus' first-- and at this point, only-- 2018 endorsed candidate. "Randy Bryce understands that running for a swing seat does not mean-- as is too often misunderstood in today's politics-- settling for a corporate agenda in exchange for campaign contributions. He understands that you don't win a swing seat by showing off your large number of firearms in exchange for a passing NRA grade, but rather, you run on an authentic message that crystalizes a working family agenda. When working families unite, as they did for Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama, you win more votes than the Republicans. That's our plan. It's the right plan for Wisconsin and it's the way we win."

Remember: New Dems & Blue Dogs are on the wrong side of this battle

UPDATE: As of Jan, 2018

These are the candidates the New Dems are trying to get into Congress-- use it as a guide of who not to vote for; no progressives on this list:

• Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-02)
• Greg Stanton (AZ-09)
• Dave Min (CA-45)
• Harley Rouda (CA-48)
• Hans Keirstead (CA-48)
• Lauren Baer (FL-18)
• Jason Crow (CO-06)
• Paul Davis (KS-02)
• Elissa Slotkin (MI-08)
• Angie Craig (MN-02)
• Dean Phillips (MN-03)
• Dan McCready (NC-09)
• Brad Ashford (NE-02)
• Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11)
• Max Rose (NY-11)
• Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)
• Mob-connected socialite Susie Lee (NV-03)
• Chrissy Houlahan (PA-06)
• Jana Lynne Sanchez (TX-06)
• Jay Hulings (TX-23)
• Ben McAdams (UT-04)
• RD Huffstetler (VA-05)
• Dan Kohl (WI-06)

I Don't Feel Sorry For Paul Ryan-- He Made This Bed

As I sat down to write this post, the big headlines at Bannon's and Mercer's extreme right website were a series of attacks on Trump chief economic advisor Gary Cohn, Trump Chief of Staff John Kelly, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kushner-in-law and on the Senate's most vulnerable Republican, Dean Heller. The anti-Heller diatribe was something that has many congressional Republicans wondering when they should break with the Trump Regime for their own political survival.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin endorsed Danny Tarkanian for the U.S. Senate in Nevada, an endorsement Palin and Tarkanian provided to Breitbart News exclusively ahead of its public release.

“Danny Tarkanian is a conservative outsider who will support the ‘America First’ policies our nation needs to survive and thrive, including building the border wall, ending sanctuary cities, and finally repealing Obamacare,” Palin said in the statement endorsing Tarkanian, provided exclusively to Breitbart News. “Commonsense Conservatives in Nevada and across America need to unite and help win this critical fight. I strongly endorse Danny Tarkanian for the United States Senate and look forward to helping him win this important election.”

...Tarkanian’s race against Heller comes as Heller, a far-outside-the-mainstream establishment Republican, has not stood with President Trump on most issues. For instance, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Heller “bragged about his dissent against the Republican-backed health reform bills” and he “stated he would continue to uphold” support for former President Barack Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) executive amnesty for illegal alien youths.

In addition, Heller announced his opposition to the idea that President Trump would pardon Arizona’s former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

Meanwhile, a top player inside the Mercer/Bannon operation contacted Blue America to ask if we would partner with them on a project to topple Paul Ryan who they hate with a fierce passion. They really hate Ryan-- probably as much as we do. The WI-01 congressional race will hinge on independent voters choosing between Ryan's increasingly ugly and deteriorating brand and the vibrant and sparkling everyman brand Wisconsin iron worker Randy Bryce has patiently built up for years. A little over a third of the midterm voters will be Republicans and a slightly smaller number will be Democrats. But over a quarter of the voters will be independents who are indicating in no uncertain terms they don't think Ryan has earned another reelection. Trump-leaning independents are as adamant as Democratic-leaning independents that Ryan is part of the problem, not part of the solution. Politico's Rachel Bade covers Ryan from a very sympathetic perspective. Yesterday she asked the country to feel sorry for his plight. "For all its power and prestige," she empathizes for her idol, "the speaker of the House is one of the most thankless jobs in Washington-- just ask John Boehner. Now, with Congress barreling toward major fiscal fights this fall, Paul Ryan is about to get a taste of the Boehner treatment-- and then some. Consider what's on the immediate horizon for the GOP wunderkind: President Donald Trump is ready to shut down the government over his border wall with Mexico. Breitbart has all but declared a renewed, Steve Bannon-led war on GOP leaders, with Ryan in its cross hairs. And conservative lawmakers are exhorting the speaker to play hardball on raising the debt ceiling-- even as the White House demands a no-strings-attached increase to calm nervous creditors."

"Conservatives aren’t going to roll over when it comes to the debt ceiling,” said Republican Study Committee Chairman Mark Walker (R-N.C.) in a Tuesday interview. “I can tell you: It’s going to be a battle.”

Asked about Ryan’s leadership on such matters, Walker added: “I would like to see his genius in policy manifest itself… Behind closed doors, there are strong conversations when it comes to holding the line for the will of the bulk of the conference. And I would like to see some strength in that area.”

When Ryan reluctantly took the reins of the House Republican Conference in late 2015, he went out of his way to say he was only heeding the call of duty and didn't really want it. Two years later, he faces the most treacherous stretch of his speakership as September showdowns over the budget and debt ceiling approach.

Like Boehner, Ryan will be forced to mediate the long-running hostilities in his conference-- between the always-potent Freedom Caucus and a newly-empowered faction of centrists. Only this time, Ryan also has a demanding and unpredictable president thrown into the mix, too.

Trump isn't making it easy. On Thursday he attacked Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) for rejecting his proposed strategy of pairing a debt ceiling increase, a toxic vote for Republicans, with a popular veterans bill to garner more support.

GOP leaders rejected the approach because they ran out of time before recess and worried some Republicans would fume that they got arm-twisted into voting for the debt bill they'd otherwise oppose but for the vets provision.

Trump didn't care about those sensitivities, tweeting Thursday: “I requested that Mitch M & Paul R tie the Debt Ceiling legislation into the popular V.A. Bill (which just passed) for easy approval.... They didn't do it so now we have a big deal with Dems holding them up (as usual) on Debt Ceiling approval. Could have been so easy-now a mess!”

That slight came just days after Trump said he'd be willing to shut down the government in order to secure funding for his border wall-- a strategy that could backfire on the Republican congressional majority in next year's midterms. And as if that's wasn't enough stress, Ryan will almost certainly be forced to rely on Democrats for the fall’s big fiscal votes-- a move that was eventually Boehner’s undoing.

No one is saying Ryan's job is in jeopardy. But the way he handles all these situations could well determine his standing and popularity within the GOP.

Meanwhile, frustration is mounting among Republican voters that Congress failed to deliver on campaign promises like repealing Obamacare. While Ryan points out that the House passed legislation and it was the Senate that came up short, the public isn't necessarily interested in that distinction.

Neither, it seems, are Trump and his allies. In fact, the president has shown he has no compunction about blaming Republicans in Congress for not enacting his agenda. And while Bannon engaged politely with Ryan and GOP leaders in the White House, he’s made clear that he plans to pound them relentlessly from his new perch atop Breitbart.

"You can see the emerging theme from Trump world is that Trump doesn’t fail; Trump has been betrayed," said longtime Ryan acquaintance Charlie Sykes, a prominent conservative commentator based in Wisconsin. "They’re going to line up the scapegoats... No matter how much [Ryan] appeases Trump, it won’t take long for Trump for turn on him."

Most of Trump's ire has lately centered on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, in retribution for failing to pass a bill to repeal Obamacare. But the Trump-Ryan marriage has always been one more of convenience than true love, so many are wondering how much longer it will last.

Here in Ryan’s southeast Wisconsin district, longtime Ryan supporters worry their congressman will be crippled from all the impossible demands and pressures. Marlene Lamberton, a Ryan constituent and retired manufacturing employee from Caledonia, Wis., said this week that Ryan is being “forced to do many unpopular things” and “make a lot of compromises" because his conference is so divided.

“Being speaker of the House has become a setback… It’s basically ruined his career for a while,” she said. “I think Paul Ryan is a good person. I think he’s one of the most honest politicians I’ve ever known and heard. But I think he is compromising his values a little.”

We contacted David Keith, Randy Bryce's Racine-based campaign manager about how this is playing out in southeast Wisconsin. He told us that "Ryan finds himself in a very precarious situation: does he hug the far right in the hopes of fending off a revolution from the Bannon-types, or does he dismiss the far right in the hopes of winning enough of the independent vote to get him to 50+1? The latter is the type of tactic Ryan is normally comfortable with. In Ryan world, his cookie-cutter style will be: dump millions of negative advertising on Randy Bryce while amplifying the 'aw-shucks' Mr. Nice Guy/I'm your wonky neighbor type to target milk toast moderates (a vote that I believe is becoming few and far between).

"There is a problem with this approach however. 1/3 (maybe slightly less) of the vote will be independent, meaning that he would have to win 75% of the independent vote in addition to winning ALL of the Republican vote. If Ryan deserts Trump and his Bannon-type extremists, he CAN'T win 100% of the Republican vote, or even anything remotely close to that. They may stay home. They may vote for the iron-worker, or they may vote for a third party...

"So this dynamic begs the question: is Paul Ryan nearing a check mate scenario? No matter how bad the Koch Regime and their money apparatus muddy up Randy's name, Democrats are eager to vote, Independents hate the President and his agenda so their vote will likely mirror the Democratic voter sentiment, and the far right hates Ryan. I don't see a majority coalition there for Ryan.

"Damned if you do, damned if you don't, might be the phrase increasingly playing in Lyin-Ryan's head for the next 15 months."

Why Jimmy Gomez's Victory In CA-34 Was A BFD

Tuesday night Jimmy Gomez became the first Democrat to win a House seat since Trump was elected president. He won pretty overwhelmingly-- 60-40%-- in a deep blue Los Angeles district. Generally Republicans don't even try in districts like CA-34. The jungle primary, in fact, resulted in 2 candidates with "D" next to their names facing off this week in the general election. One was Gomez-- a nose-to-the-grindstone progressive Assemblyman and proven, recognized champion of working families. The other was a wealthy, conservative "ex"-Republican, Robert Lee Ahn, who was backed by prominent Republicans and flagrantly campaigned for GOP votes.

It didn't work out for Ahn. He spent $498,400 of his own money ($1,372,545 in total) on the race and appealed strictly along ethnic lines to fellow Koreans, the second biggest ethnic group in the district. Korean-American turnout was very high, but not high enough, especially when Republicans wound up not turning out, just staying home-- a warning to other Democrats around the country who think this is a viable strategy for career advancement.

When Gomez declared for the seat, he was not favored to win. The establishment was already getting behind a far better known and more senior political leader, former Assembly Speaker John Pérez... and Gomez was viewed as the "too far left" interloper. "Too far left" is a weird idea in the only congressional district in Los Angeles where Bernie beat Hillary-- a a district that Democrats regularly win with over 80% of the vote. Blue America was the first group to urge Gomez to run and the first group that endorsed him when he decided to. And the reason we did is the same reason, essentially, he was able to win the primary (among two dozen candidates!) and then win the general on Tuesday. The magic formula? To be honest, there are two pieces of this: his record and his campaign.

Forget about the Republican stooge and his incoherent conservativism. In the primary, several candidates tried running to Gomez's left based on two things: basically meaningless utopian promises and the fact that each had licked envelopes in Bernie's campaign. What Gomez had to offer instead-- aside from a robust record on constituent services-- was an admirable and inspiring list of actual progressive accomplishments. So not just a good voting record but actual accomplishments. He co-wrote the state's Medicare-for-All bill. He wrote and passed a Paid Family Leave bill that fixed flawed legislation that saw virtually all the benefits going to women making over $80,000 and none going to the women who most needed it. His approach is now the national model. He conceptualized, wrote and passed-- in a bipartisan manner-- a green energy bill that didn't just subsidize wealthy Tesla buyers and people putting expensive solar panel arrays on their roofs, but also working class communities. Talk is cheap. A record of accomplishment like Gomez's goes way beyond talk.

As for the campaign... Monday a contact at the DCCC was trying to sell me on their new DCCC University-- "better," he told me, "than Trump University." Ha, ha. DCCC U is supposed to train campaign operatives. "There are less than 30 competent campaign managers in the whole country," he told me. That's true, although I didn't mention that the DCCC has been turning out scores of incompetent ones for at least a decade. But the point is that Gomez was lucky enough to snare one of the 30: David Keith.

Keith had just finished a successful Assembly campaign for Eloise Reyes, beating a corrupt conservative Democratic incumbent, Chevron Cheryl-- no one even remembered her name after Keith tarred her with that monicker. He knows how to win races, not by following the flawed one-corrupt-size-fits-all DCCC playbook but by eschewing expensive and ineffective TV ads that do nothing but make consultants very very wealthy, instead putting together the kinds of field operations and GOTV efforts that crooked organizations like the DCCC and EMILY's List hate (since they can't use them to rake off any dough for themselves through commissions). Today top Washington Democratic Party officials are begging him to fly to Washington to "debrief" them on how to win races. He laughed. Rumors are running wild that he was packing his bags to fly to Racine, Wisconsin... where some say he plans to spend the next 17 months helping Randy Bryce beat Paul Ryan.

"I've been asked to work on a couple of Senate races and some interesting House campaigns here in beautiful sunny California," he told me this morning. "But repealing and replacing Paul Ryan with @IronStache... is something any red blooded, patriotic American would have to give real consideration to. You know how much I love my mother and this great country... Any idea what the weather is like in Racine," he asked earnestly.