Recruiting Republicans To Run For Congress As Democrats Has Usually Ended Badly For All Concerned

Rahm's revolting stench is still the only smell at DCCC headquarters

I'm going to start talking about a rule of Beltway politics by immediately pointing to an exception: Elizabeth Warren, who today-- along with men and women like Bernie Sanders, Ted Lieu, Pramila Jayapal, Raul Grijalva, and Jeff Merkley-- defines what it means to be a real Democrat, was once an Oklahoma Republican! That's a long time ago, the Democratic Party didn't recruit her as a Republican, and, like I said, that's the glaring exception to the rule.

About a decade ago, Blue America was toiling away on behalf of school teacher and union member Dave Lutrin, running for Congress in the Palm Beach area of Florida, a pretty red district represented at the time by hypocritical Republican closet case Mark Foley. We knew that sooner or later Foley would slip up-- they always do-- and expose himself and become very defeatable. But suddenly Lutrin was getting all this intense pressure from Rahm Emanuel, then head of the DCCC, and Steny Hoyer to withdraw from the race. It made no sense. Florida's 16th congressional district was pretty red and not a district that the DCCC ever paid any attention to. It turns out, though, that my hunch about Foley was more than a hunch for Emanuel. Foley's alcoholism and closeted homosexuality were widely known Inside-the-Beltway but it was not as widely known that those two factors had combined to create a very sick yen for being caught molesting underage boys. And he was-- both molesting the boys and caught. But congressional leadership, primarily Republican congressional leadership under fellow closet case Denny Hastert, covered up for him. Rahm Emanuel was very much clued in to what was happening but he saw Mark Foley's tragic crumbling universe as an opportunity to pick up a House seat the Dems weren't counting on. So... he kept his mouth shut too-- complicit in allowing Foley to have his way with young congressional pages (primarily the sons of big GOP donors). Long story, short: Emanuel with Steny Hoyer, froze Lutrin, the legitimate Democratic candidate, out of the race and enticed a wealthy lifelong, conservative Republican, Tim Mahoney, into the race (delivering on their promise of an uncontested primary and a "special circumstance" for the general). The special circumstance was how the media exploded into an orgy of Mark Foley Caught With His Pants Down (in a boys dorm).

Although Foley resigned and checked into a posh clinic for naughty Republicans, it was conveniently too late to get his toxic name off the ballot... and converted "Democrat" Mahoney was elected-- though just barely (49-48%). Mahoney immediately joined the Blue Dogs and reverted to voting with his fellow-Republicans on virtually every crucial issue... and to chase women all over town. His one term ended in scandal, amid sexual escapades, payoffs, hush money and all sorts of things normally associated with Republicans (which, of course, he was, despite the deceptive "D" next to his name). He lost his seat to a Republican. The district was soon redrawn and re-numbered and came to be represented by war criminal and right-wing extremist Allen West who was eventually beaten by yet another DCCC-recruited lifelong corrupt Republican, Patrick Murphy, who Wall Street and Chuck Schumer-- I know, I know: redundant-- picked to oppose Marco Rubio, destroying Alan Grayson in the process and guaranteeing Rubio another 6 year term.

It used to surprise me when crooked conservative Dems like Emanuel, Hoyer and Chris Van Hollen recruited Republicans to run as Democrats. Now it's practically standard operating procedure for the DCCC. Last cycle DCCC-recruited Republicans masquerading as Democratic candidates (like Monica Vernon in Iowa, Mike Derrick in New York, Randy Perkins in that old Palm Beach seat... just a few examples) went down in flames. Unfortunately two former Republican office-holders didn't. Charlie Crist (FL) and Tom O'Halleran (AZ) are both in Congress now and, predictably, both are spending more vote time across the aisle than with the Democrats. O'Halleran is a full-fledged Republican in all but party affiliation. His ProgressivePunch crucial vote score was a ZERO until last week when he finally found something to vote on with the Democrats. His score-- still an "F"-- obviously, is now 27.27-- third worst after wretched Blue Dogs Stephanie Murphy (FL) and Josh Gottheimer (NJ). Crist's score is also among the dozen worst Democrats in Congress-- 40.0. Ryan and McCarthy can count on them both whenever they want to pretend one of their murderous agenda items is "bipartisan."

You would think the Democrats' record of abject failure with recruiting Republicans and trying to pass them off as real Democrats would be something they would have learned not to do. But you'd be wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong. The DCCC believes it's how to win seats and they continue doing it-- in the face of years of evidence to the contrary-- compliments of brain-deficient conservative shitheads on the DCCC recruitment committee like Blue Dog Cheri Bustos (IL) and New Dem Denny Heck (WA). The DCCC's favorite recruits are always wealthy Republicans who they can get to "switch" their registration from GOP to Democrat. Even though Kelly Ward is finally gone as executive director, just watch all the garbage candidates the DCCC drags out from under rocks in the red districts Hillary won in November. They're already up to their old tricks.

For example... they're interested in 2 Austin Republican multimillionaires, Joseph Kopser and Chad Kissinger. (One of the DCCC idiots told me that Berniecrat Tom Wakely is "too progressive for the district," even though he beat the conservative Democrat in last year's primary and then went on-- with no money and no support from the DCCC-- to come closer to beating Lamar Smith than any Democrat ever has previously. You can contribute to Tom's campaign here.) One of the worst of the new dip-shits the DCCC hired, Kyle Layman, is running around trying to recruit conservative candidates for California seats. Perhaps that was how Orange County wound up with "ex"-Republican Harley Rouda running against current Republican Dana Rohrabacher in CA-48, a district where Republicans just couldn't pull themselves to vote for Trump. Though Romney beat Obama there 54.7% to 43.0%, Hillary bested Trumpanzee 47.9% to 46.2%. The DCCC has never run a candidate against Rohrabacher so unless an anti-Trump/Ryan tsunami does all the work for them, they'll fail again in 2018 with their pet Republican. And there are lots of little assholes like Kyle Layman working, coast to coast, for the DCCC, digging up Republicans to pretend to be quasi-Democrats. We talk a lot about the Republican wing of the Democratic Party here but that isn't just Blue Dogs and New Dems; it's also actual Republicans recruited by the DCCC. No quasi-Democrats at the Blue America 2018 thermometer below:

Why Does Steve Israel And The DCCC Keep Recruiting Conservative Republicans To Run For Congress As Democrats?

Almost a decade ago, Blue America was toiling away on behalf of school teacher and union member Dave Lutrin, running for Congress in the Palm Beach area of Florida, pretty red district then represented by hypocritical Republican closet case Mark Foley. We knew that sooner or later Foley would slip up-- they always do-- and expose himself and become very defeatable. But suddenly Lutrin was getting all this pressure from Rahm Emanuel, then head of the DCCC, and Steny Hoyer to withdraw from the race. It made no sense. Florida's 16th congressional district was pretty red and not a district that the DCCC paid any attention to. It turns out though that my hunch about Foley was more than a hunch for Emanuel. Foley's alcoholism and closeted homosexuality were widely known Inside-the-Beltway but it was not widely known that those two factors had combined to create a very sick yen for being caught molesting underage boys. And he was. But congressional leadership, primarily Republican congressional leadership, covered up for him. Rahm Emanuel saw Mark Foley's crumbling world as an opportunity to pick up a House seat they weren't counting on. So he kept his mouth shut too-- complicit in allowing Foley to have his way with young congressional pages (primarily the sons of big GOP donors). Long story, short: Emanuel with Steny Hoyer, froze Lutrin, the legitimate Democratic candidate, out of the race and enticed a wealthy lifelong, conservative Republican, Tim Mahoney, into the race (delivering on their promise of an uncontested primary and a "special circumstance" for the general). The special circumstance was how the media exploded into an orgy of Mark Foley Caught With His Pants Down (in a boys dorm).

Although Foley resigned and checked into a posh clinic for naughty Republicans, it was conveniently too late to get his toxic name off the ballot and Mahoney was elected-- though just barely (49-48%). Mahoney immediately joined the Blue Dogs and reverted to voting with his fellow-Republicans... and to chase women all over town. His one term ended in scandal, amid sexual escapades, payoffs, hush money and all sorts of things normally associated with Republicans (which, of course, he was, despite the deceptive blue jersey). He lost his seat to a Republican. The district was soon redrawn and re-numbered and came to be represented by war criminal and right-wing extremist Allen West who was eventually beaten by yet another DCCC-recruited Republican, Patrick Murphy.

Now, to placate Wall Street banksters angry about Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders disrespecting them, Chuck Schumer promised to put their boy Murphy in the Senate to balance out the "radicals" he (and they) detest. So Schumer is trying to deep-six Alan Grayson's Senate campaign, not unlike the way Hoyer and Emanuel deep-sixed Lutin 9 years ago. And Wall Street is footing the bill. But Grayson is not Dave Lutrin and he may actually beat the DC/NY Axis of Evil. (You can help him do that here.)

It used to surprise me when conservative Democratic leaders like Rahm Emanuel, Steny Hoyer, Chris Van Hollen, Jon Tester and, worst of all, Chuck Schumer, recruited Republicans to run as Democrats. Now it's practically standard operating procedure for the DCCC and DSCC. The worst congressional candidate the DCCC has this cycle is Iowa Republican Monica Vernon, who is running in a blue district against Iowa progressive icon and former state House Speaker Pat Murphy-- nothing like Florida's horrendous Patrick Murphy. But Vernon is far from the only Republican who the DCCC is trying to pass off as a real Democrat. Despite the fact that Obama beat Romney in NY-21 52-46%, Steve Israel has persuaded everyone around him that only corrupt right-wing Democrats like himself can win that district. Bill Owens, the last Democrat to represent it, was, like Israel a wretched and hated Blue Dog. Now Israel has recruited a Republican, Mike Derrick who won't win-- Republicans already have their own real Republican candidate so why vote for a fake Republican/fake Democrat like Derrick? No one will but Steve Israel insists he's the nominee. Period. Israel prowls the country looking for these kinds of Republicans willing to switch parties for DCCC backing, the same way Emanuel did. It never works out because even if they do manage to win in a presidential election year, they immediatelyy start voting with the Republicans and then get defeated in a midterm because grassroots Democrats don't come out to vote for them. It;'s the story of Steve Israel's catastrophic history at the now destroyed and useless DCCC.

That said, let's wander back to the Palm Beach area and to the district Murphy is giving up in the hopes of serving Wall Street in the Senate, FL-18. Like Murphy, Randy Perkins doesn't live in the district and like Murphy he's a wealthy spoiled Republican donor. He personally wrote Mitt Romney a $2,500 check on June 21, 2011 and the company he owns, AshBritt has spent nearly a million dollars on boosting Republican campaigns, although AshBritt has also given some money to conservative Democrats like Joe Lieberman ($46,700) and to Hillary Clinton ($16,100). But generally it's lots of moolah to right wing Republicans like McCain ($18,400), Mel Martinez ($28,000), Tom Rooney ($13,800), Susan Collins ($20,900), Ruddy Guiliani ($11,500), Mark Foley ($11,500), etc.

In the crowded race to replace Murphy in Congress, there are 5 Democrats and as many as a dozen Republicans in or talking about getting in! Among them Perkins decided to try it as a Democrat, where the primary competition won't be as tough. According to Isadora Rangel at TCPalm, Perkins "is expected to spend more than $1 million to win U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy's open seat as a Democrat, but his past as a prolific Republican donor could serve as ammunition for his opponents."

Perkins of Delray Beach, the founder and CEO of disaster-recovery company AshBritt Inc. in Deerfield Beach, was registered to vote with no party affiliation for 21 years and became a Democrat days before he filed to run for District 18 this month.

Although he has also contributed to Democrats, his closeness to the GOP could be used against him in the highly-contested race much like Democrat Murphy has been criticized for being once a Republican and for giving money to the GOP... It is difficult to determine exactly how much Perkins has given in races across country and to groups that don't disclose their donors. An analysis of $925,300 donated by him and AshBritt since 2002 to federal and Florida candidates, as well as political committees, show 70 percent went to Republicans.

...Perkins' candidacy sent shock waves in the Democratic Party. Potential front-runner Melissa McKinlay dropped out less than a week later, saying having a well-funded opponent would force her to forego some of her duties as a Palm Beach County commissioner to dedicate herself more to campaigning.

Candidate Jonathan Chane, of Palm Beach Gardens, went on the offense, sending out a news release the day after Perkins entered the race questioning whether he would protect Democratic values in Congress.

Another Democratic candidate, Palm Beach County Commissioner Priscilla Taylor, said Perkins' money doesn't guarantee he's going to win. She doesn't plan to leave the race as McKinlay did, despite having raised less money than McKinlay and Chane.

...Murphy has faced similar scrutiny for being wealthy and from switching his party registration to Democrat just before he filed to run for Congress in 2011. Murphy's Senate opponent, U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, has gone after him for giving to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's campaign in 2007. Murphy's father, the owner of a construction company, also has donated to several Republicans and Democrats.

Perkins and Murphy also share another similarity: neither lived in District 18-- Martin, St. Lucie and northern Palm Beach counties-- until they filed to represent it. Murphy moved from South Florida to Jupiter and Perkins is moving from Delray Beach soon, probably to Martin County, his campaign said. The race to replace Murphy has attracted other outsiders from both parties.

Everyone knows Murphy never really moved into to his Jupiter condo and actually lives in South Beach and on his daddy's yacht, Cocktails, on Fisher Island.

Your DCCC-- Working Furiously To Elect More Republicans In Florida

Young woman flanked by 2 wealthy Republicans with political ambitions

In 2006 Blue America was supporting school teacher and Florida union and Democratic activist Dave Lutrin in the 16th CD against Republican incumbent Mark Foley. The district takes in St Lucie, Palm Beach, Martin, Charlotte, Highlands and some smaller counties. When Lutrin started running, no one thought he had a chance to beat Foley, a guy who was a fairly well-known closet case and hypocrite but who had managed to pull the wool over the eyes of his local Republican supporters year after year. Then DCCC chairman Rahm Emanuel became privy to the fact that Foley was molesting underage congressional pages and was even caught, drunk, trying to break into the boy pages dormitory. The inept congressman who was supposed to be in charge of protecting the pages, pious baloney salesman John Shimkus (R-IL) told Foley not to do it again. Emanuel, instead of alerting the police, as was his legal responsibility, decided to use the information strategically. He sat on it and waited for the right time in the election cycle to leak it. Meanwhile, he recruited a rich Republican, Tim Mahoney, got him to switch his voter registration to Team Blue and set about-- with the help of Steny Hoyer-- to drive Lutrin out of the race. They dried up his sources of contributions and endorsements, wrecking his faith in his own party-- tools the DCCC commonly uses against progressives and grassroots followers.

Long story short: Foley resigned in disgrace but too late (thanks to Emanuel's impeccable timing) to get his name off the ballot, Mahoney won-- by less than 4,000 votes (49-48%)-- went on to serve in Congress as a Blue Dog who voted with the GOP on almost all the important issues and was then caught up in his own sex scandal, losing the seat in a landslide to plutocratic nitwit Tom Rooney after one miserable term (and in an otherwise banner year for House Democrats).

Fast-forward to 2011 and Dave Lutrin decides to get into the race for the seat in his district again. The DCCC-- now chaired by another corrupt conservative in the Emanuel mold, Steve Israel-- ignores him. Like Rahm (and Romney), Israel doesn't think middle class union members should be running for Congress, just self-funders and people with rolodexes filled with the names of wealthy friends and associates. Ignoring is one thing but then something very strange happened, a chain of events that is weird even for Florida GOP politics.

Republican Rep. Allen West will endorse former state lawmaker Adam Hasner, who is announcing that he'll drop his U.S. Senate bid and run for the seat West is leaving. West plans to run in a friendlier Palm Beach County-based congressional seat. 

The endorsement from the Tea Party-backed West comes in the midst a political scramble for Florida's congressional seats. Thanks to redistricting, sitting lawmakers are trying to find friendly home districts-- and so are potential challengers. 

A chain reaction of announcements culminated Tuesday when Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney, who currently represents Martin, St. Lucie and Palm Beach Counties, announced he’d run in a new proposed congressional district that stretches from Martin to Charlotte County.

West then said he’d run in Rooney’s old seat, opening up a slot for a Republican in West’s District 22 seat, which straddles Palm Beach and Broward counties.

That allows Adam Hasner to exit the U.S. Senate race and run for West’s old seat. Hasner, who was struggling in a five-way Republican Senate race, would be running in a congressional seat that mirrors his old Delray-Beach-based state legislative district.

The Miami Herald doesn't have the sequence of events exactly right but the effect is the same. And they left off one other Republican move. The DCCC has another Mahoney-type Republican, rich kid Patrick Murphy, who was trying to run in the 22nd, but getting no traction whatsoever against the real Democrat in that race, Lois Frankel. So the DCCC wants Murphy, who was as recently as last year not just voting for Republicans but donating money to them (including to Mitt Romney), as well as to Steve Israel, to run against West in the 16th. It's an exact replay of what happened in 2006: the DCCC is looking to muscle out a real Democrat-- Dave Lutrin-- to shoehorn in a rich GOP self-funder willing to don a blue tee-shirt for the campaign. It makes my stomach turn, but that's your DCCC. Dave Lutrin can use some help to fight off the GOP interloper. Please consider giving him what you can here.

How could the Democrats not defeat Allen West in November? Just leave it to Steve Israel.

Looking At Florida's New District Lines? And What Does It Mean For Alan Grayson's Campaign?

We've been talking about the impact of the Florida redistricting and I can't emphasize enough that, even counting states like Texas and Illinois-- and the criminal activities for Arizona's governor-- Florida has long had, and still has, the most corrupted gerrymandering of districts anywhere in America... by far. That said, Florida's sharpest Democratic strategist, Steve Schale. is worth reading when it comes to the new maps the GOP state Senate released this week.

The biggest impacts of the new map are the two new Congressional seats, both landing in Central Florida. The first one, which in many ways was the most predictable, is the new Congressional seat in the northern part of the Orlando media market, essentially in the Villages area. This area has seen tremendous growth over the last two decades and was home to parts of two Congressional seats (CD 5 and CD 8) that were most over the new target population. This one goes to the GOP.

The second seat is essentially a Central Florida Puerto Rican-access seat, though not majority Hispanic. This looks to be predictably Democratic, and definitely helps shore up the seat held by Congressman Dan Webster (CD 8). More on that later. This seat will also increase the number of Hispanics in the Florida delegation from three to four. 

In the end, the two new seats are a partisan wash.

Here are the others that I think are interesting. I'll tackle them in numeric order...

CD 2: This is the old Allen Boyd seat, who survived for eight years in a district that was designed in 2002 to make it harder for him to win re-election.  The biggest electoral impacts here are the decision to move the coastal sections of Walton and Okaloosa Counties (what my northern friends might think of as the "Riviera" of Florida) into CD 1. This was a small, but highly GOP section of the district that probably voted over 70% for McCain. The district also loses a couple of rural counties on the eastern side, most notably Suwannee County, which has some great southern restaurants, but isn't too friendly to the home team. It also picks up the rest of Leon County and the smaller, but Democratic friendly Jefferson County. The net result, the seat now held by Congressman Steve Southerland moves from borderline safe for the GOP to more of a lean GOP, but clearly competitive district.

CD 3: One of the big question marks heading into today, the bulk of Congresswoman Brown's seat remains the same, as a nearly African-American majority seat (just shy of 50%), running from Jacksonville to Orlando, taking in parts of Gainesville. 

CD 7: This seat, held by John Mica, is home for me, so I tend to find it more interesting than most. The most interesting change in this district is the current incumbent now lives probably 30 miles from its nearest border. The district, which snaked from the southern boundary of Duval County (Jacksonville) to Orange County's town of Winter Park (Mica's home), just east of Orlando, had seen tremendous growth, particularly in the northern reaches of the district. As a result, the Senate proposal cuts off the parts of Seminole and Orange Counties, and creates a district that is more centered on the eastern coast of the state. Given the larger share of Volusia County, the district is probably a little more Democratic, though not enough to make it competitive. However, that doesn't mean that at some point, an ambitious Volusia County Republican might not take a shot at it (not speculating, just suggesting).

CD 8: This one-time predictably Republican seat, now held by former Florida House Speaker Dan Webster, saw more change between 2000 and 2010 of any district in Florida. The seat took on both tremendous population growth and a huge influx of Puerto Rican residents. The result, a Democratic trending district, that in 2008, sent Alan Grayson to Congress. The Senate map essentially splits up CD 8, with large portions of it ending up in the two new districts, CD 26 (Villages) and CD 27 (Hispanic seat), with the new district taking on a look and feel that is quite different. First, the old district was 78% in Orange County, while the new seat is only 51% in Orange, as the seat moves west taking in significant portions of Polk and southern Lake County. The district also has fewer minorities of voting age population (34% to 28%). The net result, a better-- though still competitive seat for Congressman Webster. He is definitely a winner under this proposal.

CD 10/11: These are the seats held by Congressman Young (R, CD 10) and Congresswoman Castor (D, CD 11). There was some speculation that Rep. Castor would lose the part of her district in southern Pinellas County, which would make Rep. Young's seat more Democratic and her seat more Republican. In this version, that didn't happen, leaving Castor in a pretty safe Democratic seat and Young in a seat that he will almost certainly hold as long as he wants.

CD 16: This seat, held by GOP Congressman Rooney, has until recently been our state's National Enquirer district, thanks to previous incumbents Mark Foley and Tim Mahoney. It is also been one of the most oddly shaped districts, running from sea (Gulf of Mexico-- Charlotte County on the west) to shining sea (Palm Beach on the east). It is also a seat that would have almost never stood up to an Amendment 6 challenge. The new district loses about 30% of its former self on the west side, territory very favorable to the GOP, and by gaining some heavily Democratic areas of St. Lucie County and poaching some Republicans from Congressman West's district, becomes a far more competitive district, going from 47% for Obama in 2008 to close to 50% today. [Help progressive activist and school teacher David Lutrin win this one back for the 99% Movement. You can contribute to his grassroots campaign here.]

CD 22: The Allen West seat. This district switched parties twice in the last decade, first when Ron Klein beat Clay Shaw, then when West beat Klein. From where I sit, it is posed to do it again. First, West already had to gain residents in order to come up to the target population, then right off the bat lost some of his Palm Beach voters to Rooney. This meant he had to gain population from somewhere, and largely that somewhere is Ted Deutch's highly Democratic and over populated CD 19. If there is a GOP loser in redistricting, it is West. That being said, he is a big fundraiser and hard worker, though I am doubtful his politics line up too well with this new seat.

CD 25: The seat held by Congressman David Rivera used to encompass large parts of western Dade County, as well as a small piece (roughly 13% of the voters in 2010) in GOP rich Collier County, where Rivera got 60% of the vote in 2010. The new seat now is entirely in Dade County, and as a result, gains as much as 3 points (from 49% to close to 52% for Obama). But here is the real political drama: According to the Miami Herald, Rivera now lives in the seat held by Mario Diaz-Balart, while Diaz-Balart lives in Rivera's seat (and used to represent it), though it certainly appears that CD 25 retains most of the seat currently represented by Rivera, while CD 21 (the seat held by Diaz-Balart-- where Rivera now lives) becomes more Republican. Figure that one out.

There's one place where I disagree with Schale, who seems to have bought into the unsubtle GOP line that the new very blue 27th CD "belongs" to Puerto Ricans. The GOP Establishment wants very much to keep Alan Grayson out of that seat. Their drumbeat won't work. The district is 40% Latino and the area's most prominent Puerto Rican political leader is telling friends he's running for the new 24th senatorial district which follows the Hispanic population corridor along Highway 417 and, unlike the 27th CD, is an actual Hispanic-majority district. In the 27th, just over a third of the residents speak Spanish (34%) and among the Hispanics, by population, 54% are Puerto Rican, 15% are South American, 11% are Mexican, 6% are Central American, 5% are Cuban, and 9% are I-don't-know-what (from Spain? the Canary Islands? Sidi Ifni?) The voter registration is 44% Democratic, 28% Republican, and 28% Independent and the Hispanics are registered 51% Democratic, 16% Republican and 33% Independent. Even last year, when Democratic turnout was so, so awful, Democrats still made up 42% of the vote (inside the new lines of the district), Republicans 40% of the vote, and Independents 18%. Hispanics are 34% of the registered voters, and African-Americans 9%. Last year, Hispanics who actually voted made up only 22% of the electorate, and African-Americans a proportionate 10%. So Hispanics make up 43% of the total population, 40% of the voting-age population, 34% of the registered voters, and 22% of the off-year actual voters. That's the kind of information I would expect from Steve Schale.

This is how the voters in the 27th cast their ballots in some previous races:

2010 Governor: Sink 52%, Scott 44% (9 points better for Sink than statewide)

2010 Attorney General: Gelber 46%, Bondi 50% (14 points closer than statewide)

2010 Senate: Rubio 47%, Meek 28%, Crist 23% (2 points worse for Rubio and 8 points better for the hapless, hopeless Meek than statewide)

2006 Senate: Nelson 61%, Harris 37%

I don't think Cook has ranked it yet. But it should come out better than a D+4... maybe even a D+7.

If you're on Alan Grayson's mailing list you got the Abraham Lincoln speech yesterday on it's 150th anniversary. If not here's what Alan sent (all the emphasis is from his e-mail):

During my two years in Congress, I heard an awful lot of speeches. Some of them were delivered by some of the finest public speakers in America today-- like Barack Obama, Neil Abercrombie, John Lewis, Anthony Weiner and Alcee Hastings. But none of them was as profound and poignant as the one that I’m about to share with you. It was delivered to a Joint Session of Congress by President Abraham Lincoln, exactly 150 years ago today. The focus of the President’s speech was, of course, the Civil War. But President Lincoln took a short detour, and with a few bare sentences, he summed up an issue that remains with us to this day.

This is what President Lincoln said to Congress, to America, and to us:

"It is not needed, nor fitting here [in discussing the Civil War] that a general argument should be made in favor of popular institutions; but there is one point, with its connections, not so hackneyed as most others, to which I ask a brief attention. It is the effect to place capital on an equal footing with, if not above, labor, in the structure of government. It is assumed that labor is available only in connection with capital; that nobody labors unless somebody else, owning capital, somehow by the use of it induces him to labor. This assumed, it is next considered whether it is best that capital shall hire laborers, and thus induce them to work by their own consent, or buy them, and drive them to it without their consent. Having proceeded thus far, it is naturally concluded that all laborers are either hired laborers or what we call slaves. And further, it is assumed that whoever is once a hired laborer is fixed in that condition for life.

“Now, there is no such relation between capital and labor as assumed, nor is there any such thing as a free man being fixed for life in the condition of a hired laborer. Both these assumptions are false, and all inferences from them are groundless.

“Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration. Capital has its rights, which are as worthy of protection as any other rights."

If I were still in Congress, I would have repeated President Lincoln’s speech on the Floor of the House this week, in the same spot where he rendered it 150 years ago. “Labor is the superior of capital.” And we must not “place capital... above labor in the structure of government.” Thank you, Mr. Lincoln. If I had to sum up my job as a Congressman in 25 words or less, that would do it.

I realize that for a statement as profound as this one, it is “far beyond [my] poor power to add or detract” (as Lincoln himself said, two years later, at Gettysburg). But I’ll try anyway, recognizing that “the world will little note, nor long remember, what we say.

I find it startling to read something like this, and realize how timeless these battles are. As the French say, “Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.” (“The more things change, the more they stay the same.”) In fact, you can hear echoes of Lincoln’s words in what Elizabeth Warren said just ten weeks ago: “There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody.”

Now, admittedly, capital is wealthier, better organized, and far more powerful today than it was in Lincoln’s time. Capital gorges on Republican tax cuts for the rich, on bailouts, on government contracts and corporate welfare, on free money from the Fed, and on monopoly profit. Capital treats politicians and whole political parties like puppets. Capital creates and perpetuates a system where Labor is unemployed, where Labor is in debt up to its eyeballs, where Labor cannot see a doctor when ill, where Labor is pitted against Labor. There probably are plenty of well-meaning people who realize this, throw up their hands, and say, “if you can’t beat them, join them.”

And then there are us. People with a head, and a heart. People who want to occupy Wall Street, occupy K Street, and occupy America with the simple concept of justice for all. People who understand that the very fact that this fight has been going on for 150 years or more, and will continue after you and I are gone-- that very fact-- makes this a fight that is worth fighting for.

And gradually, things do get better. I know, I know-- two steps forward, one step back. But then two more steps forward.

Oh say can you see, by the dawn’s early light,
What so proudly we hailed, at the twilight’s last gleaming.

When Lincoln spoke, 150 years ago today, his time was the twilight’s last gleaming. And today, you can see the dawn’s early light.

Can you see it?

I can; that's one of the reasons why I've donated, several times, to Alan Grayson's congressional campaign. Last year the one percent spent more money in negative TV ads against Alan than against any other House incumbent. I suspect they'll be up to no good again this time-- though probably in a primary.




UPDATE: Schale Takes A Look At The House Maps

Yesterday the GOP-controlled Florida House released a batch of maps to also be considered. What a mess. Schale tried to make heads or tails out of it, but, in reality, there's nothing definitive. It does look like they're ready to sacrifice David Rivera and teabagger Sandy Adams-- great news for Nick Ruiz.

How Is Right-Wing Extremist Allen West Working Towards A Win In A Blue District?

A crop of unique and extraordinarily unqualified men and women were elected to Congress last year. It's the ultimate damage the Koch-funded Tea Party did to America. And a case can be made that there was no worse outcome than the defeat of moderate Florida technocrat Ron Klein by raging right-wing extremist and proven sociopath Allen West. Disappointed Democrats and left-leaning independents in Broward and Palm Beach counties didn't bother coming out to vote. In the mid-term before (2006), 43,746 Broward voters gave Klein a 51-47% victory over longtime Republican incumbent Clay Shaw. In Palm Beach County is was 63,611- 59,120 for another 51-47% win for the challenger. Last year it turned around... badly. Klein only managed 39,654 votes in Broward (to West's 46,146) and 60,150 in West Palm (to West's 72,744). In both counties, the GOP vote went up and the Democratic votes... just evaporated. The 22nd CD had been steadily supporting Democratic presidential candidates in recent times. Gore beat Bush 52-48%. Kerry beat Bush 52-48% and in 2008, Obama beat McCain 52-48%.

That brings us to 2012... well first to 2011. The Republican legislature, in strengthening several endangered neighboring Republican districts (Webster's and Rivera's particularly), gerrymandered the area in such away that clearly threw West under the bus. McCain's 48% in 2008 would have been a 44% in the new boundaries... very bad news for West, who doesn't even live in the district.

Ironically, the crazed and clownish West, who will probably get a Fox TV show in 2013, leads all GOP freshmen in fundraising through Sept. 30, bringing in $4.2 million and managing to raise more than half, $2.3 million, in amounts of $200 or less. Two years ago, he’d collected only $543,808 in the same period. The kooks and nuts across the country identify with his sick Jack Bauer persona.

There are two Democrats running for the nomination to take on West, former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel and Patrick Murphy, a rich young businessman with suspicious credentials as a Democrat. In fact, until last January he was a registered Republican, something the DCCC never lets stand in the way of recruiting. They LOVE rich, conservative candidates, regardless of politics.

Miami Dade Supervisor of Elections records shows that Murphy was a registered Republican in Miami-Dade county from 2004 up until January of 2011 and he cast his vote in the 2010 elections as a registered Republican.  Murphy changed his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat mere months ago- on January 10, 2011, according to the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections... [W]hat’s most revealing about Murphy’s party switch is that given its proximity to the announcement of his candidacy for Congress, it appears that it was done much more for political expediency than for any other possible motive.

Like Frankel, Murphy has raised more than $1 million, although, unlike hers, which comes primarily from small donors, he's getting larger sums from suspicious, wealthy sources.

Before buying his way into the Democratic Establishment's good graces by giving "ex"-Blue Dog Steve Israel, the corrupt and reactionary head of the DCCC, $2000 in March (plus $2,400 to Florida's Democratic Senator Ben Nelson in January, $2,500 to Obama and $4,800 each to Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Ted Deutsch this year), Murphy had been a GOP donor and had been contributing thousands of dollars to Charlie Crist (that's them together below) and Mitt Romney.

Something about Murphy stinks. I'm wondering if he's not part of a Republican scheme to give Allen West an easy time. Is it possible that he was recruited by the GOP to run against Frankel in the primary so that she spends all her money and isn't prepared to fight off West's millions in teabaggy and corporate cash?

Murphy sent an email to supporters, claiming he's "proud to stand with the 99 percent" and denounced West's name-calling comments identifying the Occupy protesters as "communists," "Marxist," "Stalinist," and "socialist" in the same sentence and adding that they're just a bunch of "gangs." But what does this rich Republican Mitt Romney donor know about OccupyWallStreet?

This is smelling more and more like a typical Republican trick, where the GOP incumbent recruits his own weak "Democratic opponent." DWT uncovered this type of scheme in 2006 when California's most crooked congressman, Jerry Lewis, manufactured his own make-believe opponent, Louie Contreras, who completely disappeared after winning the primary. Since then we've seen other Republicans trying the same trick. It's the second best thing to not having any opponent. We're going to have to dig a little deeper into Murphy and see what's really there.


UPDATE: More West Antics Roil Florida Politics

Although yesterday's biggest news regarding West was his call for Herman Cain to drop out of the presidential race/book campaign because of his philandering, a bit of West news is exploding inside Florida political circles. After the new maps came out he supposedly decided to try to switch districts by challenging Tom Rooney. West never lived in the 22nd CD anyway and now it's way bluer than it was when he managed to pull off his win last year. He lives in Debbie Wasserman Schultz's district but he doesn't have the guts to challenge her; he's always been a big mouthed coward. So he's going after Rooney, a befuddled GOP backbencher in way over his head.

"Allen's strongly considering making a move," said a highly placed source affiliated with West's camp. "It's not a big move, just a few miles away."

West's best move-- running for U.S. Senate-- still appears to be off the table. But West gave it a second thought recently, another source said. And he could jump in that race, though it's less likely.

All this talk is both premature and potentially too late. On one hand, the Legislature has yet to meet to sign off on the plans. And the Florida House hasn't even proposed its own version. But, sources in the Legislature tell us that the House is more inclined to adopt major portions of the Senate's Congressional map. So West needs to start making noise now, in part because legislators will have to decide whether to help him. Rooney has a key connection in the Legislature: uber-lobbyist and political fundraiser Brian Ballard, who has represented the gambling interests of the representative's family for years.

Regardless of what West and Rooney work out between themselves, DWT is supporting school teacher and progressive Democratic activist Dave Lutrin for the seat he should have won-- if not for interference from Rahm Emanuel-- in 2006. Lutrin filed for the 16th yesterday. You can contribute to his campaign here. Between Grayson, Ruiz, Frankel and Lutrin, Florida Democrats may be fielding one of the most progressive batch of House candidates in the country!

Do You Think Nancy Pelosi Will Help Dave Lutrin Win A House Seat In Florida?

Thursday when the DCCC was introducing candidates to the "realities of life" in the DC bubble and throwing a meet and greet for the new recruits at the headquarters of one of the sleaziest Inside the Beltway DLC-type consulting firms, the Majority Group (founded by defeated, GOP-voting, Blue Dogs Walt Minnick and Rob Ellsworth-- along with "Wall Street attorney" Chris DiAngelo) and while DCCC chairman (and "ex"-Blue Dog) Steve Israel was bragging how the biggest one day haul of grassroots contributions the Blue Dog-funding DCCC had had all year was when they sent out an e-mail cynically claiming a bond with OccupyWallStreet, progressive stalwart Dave Lutrin was back in Palm Beach County announcing his candidacy for Congress (video above).

Dave's reason to run and his plan to win, is far more alien from any DCCC vision than the DCCC vision is from a Republican vision. Think about that. Dave is running as part of the 99% Movement. The DCCC may see the 99% Movement as another interest group-- like banksters, lobbyists, unions-- from whom to solicit contributions for their career goals, but the DCCC is exactly as connected to the 99% movement as the Republican Party is. You'll be hearing lot's more about Dave's campaign here at DWT as the campaign unfolds. But for now, I want to ask you to listen closely to his announcement of candidacy in the video above. And read a post by another Dave in Slate. This vision, like the Republican vision, is the opposite vision that New Deal Democrats and proponents of the 99% Movement share. Instead of hearing what John Boehner, Eric Cantor or Steny Hoyer have to say about it, Dave Weigel gives as a look at what Nancy Pelosi is saying: "It Is Clear We Must Enter an Era of Austerity".

That's the sound of the Democratic Party's leader in the House caving on the argument that motivated Democrats for the past three years; or 80 years, if you want to get smart about it. But that's the statement in support of the Reid Plan: "It is clear we must enter an era of austerity; to reduce the deficit through shared sacrifice."

Has Pelosi gone over to the Dark Side? Been hanging around with Hoyer too much? Spending too much time at The Majority Group? I've known Dave Lutrin a very long time. He'd cut his own throat out before ever saying any such thing ever. Please help elect Dave and Democrats like him. If you can join me, I just contributed $50 to his campaign here at ActBlue.

David Lutrin Is Running For Congress In Florida

David Lutrin is a school teacher and progressive union activist in South Florida. You may remember him as one of Blue America's favorite candidates back in 2006 when he was taking on sex-obsessed Republican Mark Foley. But Rahm Emanuel had other ideas. He and the DCCC sabotaged Lutrin's campaign in order to guarantee a slot for... another sex-obsessed Republican, Tim Mahoney, who Emanuel had persuaded to switch his voter registration so he could run as a Democrat. Of course, as soon as he was elected he joined the Blue Dogs, voted with the Republicans and spent all his time pursuing his sex obsessions. He was defeated after one miserable term and the district is now saddled with vapid plutocrat Tom Rooney.

Yesterday Dave Lutrin filed with the FEC to run for Congress. I hope he runs against Rooney but, because Rick Scott and his allies have delayed the state's redistricting, no one knows where the boundaries of any districts will lie. The video above, with Dave talking about the issues that have motivated the OccupyWallStreet movement, was in front of Allen West's district office. "I don't think I'll be running against Allen West," he told me earlier, "but the message is the same and I'm taking it all over South Florida.

It's good the Dave is willing to express a progressive vision for South Florida. Thanks to a completely dysfunctional state party addicted to abject failure, many people haven't heard one since they moved down there from up North. Last year, for example, voters had to pick between Rooney and a teabagger in a blue T-shirt. As I mentioned at the time, a raving teabagger, Republican Jim Horn-- who was a greed-crazed selfish Republican when he was in the same college as me in the '60s--looked like he would run against Rooney as a third party candidate, splitting the Republican vote. But it didn't work out that way.

I wonder how long it will take Debbie Wasserman Schultz to embrace Horn, despite this public record of political contributions:



Jim Horn, a Palm City businessman, on Monday changed his voter registration from Republican to Democrat at the Martin County Supervisor of Elections Office, and also amended his ballot designation for the Congressional District 16 race from no party affiliation to Democrat... Horn, calling himself a “Traditional Values Democrat,” noted that he comes from a family of Democrats from New York.

“I was talking to my uncle the other day about my candidacy, he’s still in Manhattan, he said, “Bring your values to the Democratic Party like we did when we were younger,” Horn said. “You don’t have to accept what everyone is saying.”

“Unfortunately, I believe he will be an embarrassment to the Democrats,” Smilan stated. “In my opinion his presence on the ballot will be very divisive. He will reflect very poorly on the Democratic Party and drag down the ticket.”

In the end Horn only took half the number of votes Rooney got-- 162,285- 80,327-- one third of the vote. He lost all 8 counties in FL-16 as Democratic participation plummeted from 2008 (when the disgraced Mahoney managed to get 139,373 votes) and 2006 (the previous midterm- 115,506, which saw the Democrat win in 4 of the 8 counties, including 2 out of the of the 3 big ones, Palm Beach and St Lucie).

Florida Democrats are more often than not excruciatingly bad-- but when they're good... OMG! You get people like Nick Ruiz, Dave Lutrin and Alan Grayson. Oh yeah... Alan Grayson. See him last night with Rachel talking about OccupyWallStreet? You don't want to miss this:



Republicans in Congress don't get it-- don't want to get it. But even the Business Insider had to admit the OccupyWallStreet Movement that Grayson and Lutrin were talking about has legitimate gripes-- really serious legitimate gripes.

The "Occupy Wall Street" protests are gaining momentum, having spread from a small park in New York to marches to other cities across the country.

So far, the protests seem fueled by a collective sense that things in our economy are not fair or right.  But the protesters have not done a good job of focusing their complaints-- and thus have been skewered as malcontents who don't know what they stand for or want.

(An early list of "grievances" included some legitimate beefs, but was otherwise just a vague attack on "corporations." Given that these are the same corporations that employ more than 100 million Americans and make the products we all use every day, this broadside did not resonate with most Americans).

So, what are the protesters so upset about, really?

Do they have legitimate gripes?

To answer the latter question first, yes, they have very legitimate gripes.

And if America cannot figure out a way to address these gripes, the country will likely become increasingly "de-stabilized," as sociologists might say. And in that scenario, the current protests will likely be only the beginning.

The problem in a nutshell is this: Inequality in this country has hit a level that has been seen only once in the nation's history, and unemployment has reached a level that has been seen only once since the Great Depression. And, at the same time, corporate profits are at a record high.

In other words, in the never-ending tug-of-war between "labor" and "capital," there has rarely-- if ever--been a time when "capital" was so clearly winning.

How could that happen with a Democrat in the White House? Yeah... aren't we all wondering, although all you have to do is look who financed his election campaign-- as well as McCain's-- and who he picked for his economic team, to realize the deck is totally stacked against working families. Give up? NEVER! That's why it's so important to elect people like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and progressives running for the House, like Grayson, Ruiz and Lutrin. And why you should consider participating in OccupyTheBoardroom this weekend.

Is There A State Democratic Party Anywhere In America In Worse Shape Than Florida's?

Is Argenziano a Democrat now?

Florida has a history of electing very conservative Democrats to office who reflexively vote with the GOP. The highly dysfunctional state party there, working closely with the DCCC, goes out of its way to discourage union members and working class Democrats from running, always getting behind wealthy, out-of-touch conservatives. The worst example I personally ever experienced was in 2006 when Rahm Emanuel and Steny Hoyer drove school teacher and Democratic activist Dave Lutrin out of the race against congressional Republican child molester Mark Foley and replaced him with a conservative Republican, Tim Mahoney, who changed his party registration and ran as a "Democrat."

Once Emanuel leaked it to the media that Foley was molesting underage male pages and he was forced to resign, Mahoney was a shoo-in. He got to Congress and promptly started voting with the Republicans on all the important issues of the day. He was little different from his predecessor in one other way-- he was just as randy and was soon driven from office for sex scandals, although not with underaged boys or even men.

Has the Democratic Party of Florida learned anything from this? Not on your life!

Last year right-wing Blue Dog Allen Boyd, a long-time and entrenched incumbent with a long history of consistently voting with the Republicans, was swept out of office when Democrats in Florida's Second District simply refused to vote. Deranged teabagger and mortician Steve Southerland got 136,371 votes (54%) to Boyd's measly 105,211 (41%). That was less than half the votes Boyd got two years earlier when he beat Mark Mulligan 216,804 to 133,404. Republicans were energized. Democrats stayed home.

It looks like they'll be staying home again next year. The Democrats want to run a mainstream conservative Republican ex-state senator, Nancy Argenziano, against Southerland.

Saying the Republican party has left her and is now owned by ideologues, former GOP state Sen. Nancy Argenziano, 56, of Crystal River says she will run for the U.S. House of Representatives as a Democrat.

..."The Republican Party has left me, and I will run as a Democrat, in a sense permitting a claim to ultimate bipartisanship, along the lines of Ronald Reagan. The current iteration of the party abandoned real Republican principles long ago to cater to ideologues and corporations – the Koch entities, most notably – whose interests lie in the profiteering of America and the sacking of the middle class," Argenziano wrote in a letter announcing her candidacy. "Current Republican leaders have neither patience with nor allowance for honest elected officials, and they demand that members of the various legislatures-- who, after all, have sworn to uphold the Constitution-- instead just follow the hijacked party line and shut up."

Problem is, when Argenziano left the GOP, she reregistered as an Independent, not as a Democrat, and post-Mahoney the state passed a law that says a politician can't run as a member of one party if he or she was a member of another party one year prior. Argenziano, and the Democrats, claim the new law is unconstitutional.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the state, Dave Lutrin is what he's always been: a dyed-in-the-wool champion of working families and a Democratic Party activist. Will he run against extremist GOP incumbent Tom Rooney? A few weeks ago we posted a video he had made about the issues and mentioned we were trying to talk him into running. He seems to be coming closer to making up his mind to do it. Here's a new video he sent yesterday, addressing the issues around the Satan Sandwich that every Florida congressional Democrat supported. Alan Grayson and Nicholas Ruiz III, Blue America-endorsed House candidates, would have voted NO. So would Dave Lutrin:

Polar Opposites: Dave Lutrin And Sean Duffy (AKA- Paul Ryan, Jr.)

Sean Duffy, clearly a mindless acolyte of Paul Ryan, himself a mindless acolyte of admitted Jesus-hater Ayn Rand, was reminded, if just subliminally, by the SEIU this week, that Gore, Kerry and Obama all carried, by increasingly large margins, Wisconsin's 7th congressional district. Perhaps his boyfriend Paul saved his ass by directing the gerrymandering of the district to include more Republicans and fewer Democrats. Perhaps. But McCain only won 43% of the district and next year Duffy's opponent, state Senator Pat Kreitlow, is widely acknowledged one of Wisconsin's most talented political leaders-- as well as the adored and respected longtime evening news anchor for WEAU-TV in Eau Claire, the heart of the district. And he has an impressive legislative record of accomplishment for Wisconsin working families... unlike Duffy, who just "me-too's" everything Ryan ever says and was the lead sponsor this week on the bill to eviscerate Dodd-Frank, making it easier for his Wall Street campaign donors to prey on unsuspecting consumers. Matt Taibbi didn't mention Duffy in his latest Rolling Stone piece, but he was certainly describing him.

"We're seriously talking about defaulting on our debt, and cutting Medicare and Social Security, so that Google can keep paying its current 2.4 percent effective tax rate and GE, a company that received a $140 billion bailout en route to worldwide 2010 profits of $14 billion, can not only keep paying no taxes at all, but receive a $3.2 billion tax credit from the federal government. And nobody appears to give a shit. What the hell is wrong with people? Have we all lost our minds?"

I doubt Duffy-- or even his mentor for that matter-- would understand a word of any of that. These are purely political creatures out to make a buck for themselves. They get their marching orders from Wall Street and Big Business-- the folks who finance their careers. When Obama was still insisting Ryan was "serious" and worth paying attention to, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman had already alerted the country to the fact that Ryan's ideas were worthless and that Ryan himself is nothing but a Flimflam Man. Duffy is just a Flimflam wanna-be. Thursday Krugman was on Ryan and all the little nihilistic Ryan wanna-be's again.

[W]e’re looking at not one but two looming crises, either of which could produce a global disaster. In the United States, right-wing fanatics in Congress may block a necessary rise in the debt ceiling, potentially wreaking havoc in world financial markets. Meanwhile, if the plan just agreed to by European heads of state fails to calm markets, we could see falling dominoes all across southern Europe-- which would also wreak havoc in world financial markets.

We can only hope that the politicians huddled in Washington and Brussels succeed in averting these threats. But here’s the thing: Even if we manage to avoid immediate catastrophe, the deals being struck on both sides of the Atlantic are almost guaranteed to make the broader economic slump worse.

In fact, policy makers seem determined to perpetuate what I’ve taken to calling the Lesser Depression, the prolonged era of high unemployment that began with the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and continues to this day, more than two years after the recession supposedly ended.

Let’s talk for a moment about why our economies are (still) so depressed.

The great housing bubble of the last decade, which was both an American and a European phenomenon, was accompanied by a huge rise in household debt. When the bubble burst, home construction plunged, and so did consumer spending as debt-burdened families cut back.

Everything might still have been O.K. if other major economic players had stepped up their spending, filling the gap left by the housing plunge and the consumer pullback. But nobody did. In particular, cash-rich corporations see no reason to invest that cash in the face of weak consumer demand.

Nor did governments do much to help. Some governments-- those of weaker nations in Europe, and state and local governments here-- were actually forced to slash spending in the face of falling revenues. And the modest efforts of stronger governments-- including, yes, the Obama stimulus plan-- were, at best, barely enough to offset this forced austerity.

So we have depressed economies. What are policy makers proposing to do about it? Less than nothing.

The disappearance of unemployment from elite policy discourse and its replacement by deficit panic has been truly remarkable. It’s not a response to public opinion. In a recent CBS News/New York Times poll, 53 percent of the public named the economy and jobs as the most important problem we face, while only 7 percent named the deficit. Nor is it a response to market pressure. Interest rates on U.S. debt remain near historic lows.

Yet the conversations in Washington and Brussels are all about spending cuts... For those who know their 1930s history, this is all too familiar. If either of the current debt negotiations fails, we could be about to replay 1931, the global banking collapse that made the Great Depression great. But, if the negotiations succeed, we will be set to replay the great mistake of 1937: the premature turn to fiscal contraction that derailed economic recovery and ensured that the Depression would last until World War II finally provided the boost the economy needed.

Did I mention that the European Central Bank-- although not, thankfully, the Federal Reserve-- seems determined to make things even worse by raising interest rates?

There’s an old quotation, attributed to various people, that always comes to mind when I look at public policy: “You do not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed.” Now that lack of wisdom is on full display, as policy elites on both sides of the Atlantic bungle the response to economic trauma, ignoring all the lessons of history. And the Lesser Depression goes on.

The fiscal catastrophe of the 30's brought on something else in much of the world, the rise of Big Business financed faux populist movements-- fascists-- that have too many similarities to our own Teabaggers to ignore. So be better not. However, at the same time, there was a heightened consciousness among working families that weren't sucked in by the allure of fascism. While Hitler, Franco and Mussolini rose in Europe, Franklin Roosevelt vanquished the Republican fascists here in America. Obama is no FDR by any stretch of anyone;s imagination, but there are political leaders in every part of America, some in Congress, some in state government, some not in any governmental positions, ready to fight back. I want to point one out I hope we'll be hearing a lot more from this year.

David Lutrin was a Democratic candidate for Florida's 16th CD in 2006... until Rahm Emanuel forced him out of the race to make way for a self-funding Republican willing to switch his party registration. Emanuel's candidate won, went on to be as big a pervert as the Republican he replaced (Mark Foley) and lost reelection-- after voting with the GOP for two miserable years. Now the district is represented by a rich right-wing asshole, Tom Rooney, perhaps the worst member of Florida's congressional delegation (not counting Allen West). I wonder if we could persuade Dave Lutrin to run again. From the sound of this video, he's still as passionate about the issues the country faces as ever:

File Under: You Can't Make This Stuff Up (FL-16 Again)

Florida's 16th congressional district is famous for roughly the same reason I started treating the DCCC as the bad player it has proven itself to be. Start with a longtime incumbent, whose alcoholism and closeted homosexuality-- both widely known Inside-the-Beltway-- had combined to create a very sick yen for being caught molesting underage boys. And he was. But congressional leadership, primarily Republican congressional leadership, covered up for him. Rahm Emanuel, then head of the DCCC saw Mark Foley's crumbling world as an opportunity to pick up a House seat in a relatively red district. So he kept his mouth shut too-- complicit in allowing Foley to have his way with young congressional pages (primarily the sons of big GOP donors). Long story, short: Emanuel with Steny Hoyer, froze the legitimate Democratic candidate running against Foley-- Dave Lutrin-- out of the race and enticed a wealthy lifelong Republican, Tim Mahoney, into the race (delivering on their promise of an uncontested primary and a "special circumstance" for the general). The special circumstance was how the media exploded into an orgy of Mark Foley Caught With His Pants Down (in a boys dorm).

Although Foley resigned and checked into a posh clinic for naughty Republicans, it was conveniently too late to get his toxic name off the ballot and Mahoney was elected-- though just barely (49-48%). Mahoney went on to revert to voting with his fellow-Republicans and to chase women all over town. His one term ended in scandal, amid sexual escapades, payoffs, hush money and all sorts of things normally associated with Republicans (which, of course, he was, despite the deceptive blue jersey) and now extremely entitled son of Pittsburgh Steelers owner Dan Rooney has taken possession of the seat. Old news, right? Certainly... but whatever is old...

A few weeks ago David Lutrin called and asked if Doug Kahn and I would help him run against Rooney. We agreed and were especially excited because there was already a raving teabagger, Republican Jim Horn, in the race which would surely split the Republican base allowing a Democrat to win. (Obama only took 47% of the district, about the same as Gore and Kerry.) Horn is a kook who went to the same college-- SUNY, Stony Brook-- as I did and he was a typical Republican climber, devoted in all ways to the whole Greed and Selfishness ethos that so afflicts right-wingers.

Anyway, a week later Lutrin decided his family wasn't prepared for him to run and he withdrew, leaving a retired airline pilot, Stan Smilan, as the Democrat in the race. Problem was Smilan didn't want a primary so when the teabagger decided to pull off his red jersey and don a blue one, declaring himself a candidate for the Democratic nomination, Smilan withdrew, leaving FL-16 voters with a choice between two Republicans... again!

I wonder how long it will take Debbie Wasserman Schultz to embrace Horn, despite this public record of political contributions:

Jim Horn, a Palm City businessman, on Monday changed his voter registration from Republican to Democrat at the Martin County Supervisor of Elections Office, and also amended his ballot designation for the Congressional District 16 race from no party affiliation to Democrat... Horn, calling himself a “Traditional Values Democrat,” noted that he comes from a family of Democrats from New York.

“I was talking to my uncle the other day about my candidacy, he’s still in Manhatattan, he said, “Bring your values to the Democratic Party like we did when we were younger,” Horn said. “You don’t have to accept what everyone is saying.”

“Unfortunately, I believe he will be an embarrassment to the Democrats,” Smilan stated. “In my opinion his presence on the ballot will be very divisive. He will reflect very poorly on the Democratic Party and drag down the ticket.”

Friday's the last day for filing... and, believe it or not, Mahoney wants to give it another shot.

Dave Lutrin Isn't Running This Year After All... A Guest Post

-by Dave Lutrin

Though I consider it a great opportunity to contest the 16th Congressional District seat of Florida, I have decided to forego the endeavor at this time. During the past two weeks, I have received tremendous support from Howie Klein, the local organizers of DFA and PDA, local DECs, as well as family, friends and colleagues. We had a professional team in place and ready to begin a competitive campaign, but the one element missing was timing. Although my wife and daughter supported my mission, they were not prepared for this sense of urgency. What should have been a time for excitement and joy became a sense of dread and sadness.

All that I do, I do for my family. The decision to jump into this race so that no “seat goes unchallenged” was made with thoughts of obligation, rather than what would be best for my family and me. Thus, with no time to prepare my wife for life without her husband and my 12 year-old daughter for life without daddy, I have decided that this is not the correct time or reason to throw my hat into the ring. After all, it is my love, devotion, and obligation to my wife and daughter that trumps obligation to all else. When the time is right for my family and me, perhaps in 2012, hopefully the faith and support will again be there for me, if not, I understand and can live with it.

When Will Charlie Crist (R-FL) Dump The Ugly Albatross Around His Neck?

As we mentioned this morning, current polling shows that the grassroots of the Florida GOP is so dominated by ignorant extremists and anti-American sociopaths that even a proven conservative like Charlie Crist can't win a Republican primary. He would almost certainly win a three-way general election race against a weak, floundering Democrat who stands for nothing-- Kendrick Meek-- and a fringe fanatic of the right-- Rubio-- representing the Republicans. So when will Crist declare he's running as an independent? His veto this afternoon of SB6 is widely viewed as the first step towards ditching the Republican Party. He said that he knew in his heart it was the right thing to do. And it was; but it wasn't the right-wing thing to do. And they're going bonkers.

The Florida Senate passed the bill 21-17; it got through the House of Representatives by a 64-55 vote. The bill had strong support among Republican Party leadership, but some in the GOP joined Democrats in opposition.

"I'm disappointed," said state GOP Chairman Sen. John Thrasher, who sponsored the bill in the Senate.

Crist has been inundated with messages about the bill, receiving more than 109,000. Though about 49,000 were still unread, almost 58,000 of the messages that had been logged were against the bill.

He had frequently said that he wanted to take his time to hear from his "bosses," the people of Florida, as he made up his mind.

Thousands of teachers in Miami-Dade took the day off Monday in protest; students throughout South Florida have walked out of class to show how they feel.

Under the bill, half of a teacher's evaluation would depend on what kind of learning gains their students made. Those evaluations would determine their pay. New teachers would have been hired on annual contracts with no chance of tenure.

Today's Washington Post doesn't go as far as speculating which party Senator Crist will caucus with-- maybe he and Lieberman and Nelson can have their own caucus-- but they certainly raise the possibility, if not likelihood, that he will run as an independent.

Gov. Charlie Crist was once a rapidly rising Republican star, a potential running mate for John McCain, a man with a bright political future who moved from an obscure state post to education commissioner, attorney general and governor - all within six years.

Now it's becoming increasingly likely that Crist's dream of becoming a U.S. senator will compel him to bolt from the GOP, the party that once nurtured him but has moved too far right for even a political chameleon like him to handle... Crist must decide by April 30 if he will remain in the Republican primary or take his chances as an independent, which Brown said appears to be his best bet for political survival. He cannot switch after the Aug. 24 primary, so his political future hinges on whatever decision he makes about running as an independent in the coming weeks.

...In early March, Crist dwelled on the merits of moderation as he delivered his State of the State message to the Legislature, lambasting politicians who hold "extreme views."

Most of the Democratic minority applauded Crist's remarks. Most of the Republican majority did not.

And this probably isn't the kind of ad Ronald Reagan would have approved one Republican running against another-- even if the subject is a crazed fanatic reeking of corruption and likely to drag the GOP down into the toilet with him:



The two newest candidates to throw their hats into the Florida political campaign, both for congressional seats, are progressives strongly identified with working for the interests of ordinary American families, Joe Garcia and Dave Lutrin, himself a public school teacher. Both men recognized the bill as among what Joe called "the worst anti-family concoctions ever created by Tallahassee politicians." This evening Dave told us his state's Republican governor made the right move this time

Bravo to Governor Crist for coming to his senses to veto SB6, the worst attack on public education since No Child Left Behind. With one stroke of his pen he did what elected officials are supposed to do; he listened to the will of the people. More importantly, he saved public education from micro-management by politicians, stood-up for teaching professional, and he reminded the Republican legislature and Jeb Bush that Charlie Crist is the governor of Florida, not Jeb. Also, he resurrected his campaign for the U.S. Senate for at least another day. I hope there is more ink in that veto pen because there are more bad bills in the pipeline coming to his desk that will cut retirement benefits for not only teachers, but for all Florida state workers (except elected officials), as well as cut health insurance benefits for teachers statewide.

If you know Joe Garcia at all, you know he was urging Crist to veto the bill. The photo on the left is of him with teachers and students demonstrating today against it. His campaign manager pointed out that "Tallahassee politicians... want to take their anti-family agenda to Washington. They talk a lot about family values, but don't really value families. They believe that the way to create prosperity is by siding with the special interests that bankroll their campaigns, while punishing middle class families.  They believe in raising taxes and fees on small businesses and families in the middle of a recession.  And some even believe it's a good idea to use tax-payer dollars to build a luxury baseball stadium, while short-changing our kids' schools and Jackson Memorial Hospital." Joe went further:

The devastating effects that SB6 would have had on families hit close to home. My brother and his wife, an expecting mother, are both public school teachers. This was undoubtedly one of the worst anti-family laws ever created by Tallahassee politicians and it would have further weakened our already-battered schools. Our children deserve the same, if not better, opportunities than the ones previous generations had. I applaud Gov. Crist for doing the right thing and vetoing this anti-family bill."

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman wasn't exactly congratulating Crist on vetoing the bill but she was essentially on the same side as he, Dave Lutrin and Joe Garcia (not to mention the teachers, parents and students) are. "Today's veto of SB6." she said, "shows why Floridians need to elect Alex Sink as our next Governor. She will be a check on the Legislature's attempts to gut local control, bully Florida's teachers, and hurt the students of our state... I would also like to congratulate the teachers, parents, school board members, school superintendents, and all Floridians who fought so hard for our state's children and against this bill. However, our work is not done. Because it is clear that Tallahassee politicians like AG Bill McCollum, Senator Jeff Atwater and the other Republicans who fought for this Tallahassee cram-down no longer care about representing the values or priorities of those who sent them there to serve, we need to continue this fight and defeat them come Election Day."

Not everyone is celebrating of course; the Speaker-designate of Florida's lower house, Dean Cannon, is rescinding his endorsement of Crist over this and going over to the crazy side with the lunatic fringe left-behinds behind Rubio. I think we'll be seeing quite a lot of this kind of behavior over the next month or so. Back to the good news: watch state Senator Dan Gelber:

There's Only One Good Guy In This List Of Characters: Dave Lutrin, Mark Foley, Rahm Emanuel, Tim Mahoney, Tom Rooney

In our one brief phone conversation, Democrat Chris Craft didn't impress me much. The popular St. Lucie County Commissioner seemed like a nice enough guy but wet behind the ears, not terribly savvy on the national issues and likely to follow a conservative Blue Dog line in national politics. I talk to cookie cutter DCCC candidates like that all the time. I didn't think he'd be able to make much of a dent in any incumbent's armor with his me-too brand of Republican-lite messaging, not even against a dim bulb like Tom Rooney (R-FL). When, predictably, he dropped out of the race a couple weeks ago I think I may have tweeted it. He wasn't only unimpressive; he was uninspiring.

The district, on the other hand (FL-16), is one I follow closely. Adam, the old DWT art director, lives there and Doug, the guy who's running Blue America's anti-Blue Dog efforts, lives a few blocks out of the district. And the district has an interesting recent history. Mark Foley was elected congressman in 1994, got caught molesting congressional pages, and resigned in 2006. Before it became known outside of political circles that he was gay-- let alone imposing on young boys-- Foley was seen as unbeatable by Democrats; the district has a PVI of R+2 and the incumbent was well-liked. He had been re-elected in 2004 with 68% of the vote (while Bush only won the district with 54%). But an idealistic, progressive school teacher, Dave Lutrin, decided to run anyway; brave soul. And Blue America decided to back him. And along came... Rahm Emanuel (with Steny Hoyer, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Republican hack Tim Mahoney in tow). Emanuel knew what few others at the time did: the Foley case was going to explode in the national media. He scrambled to recruit a conservative who he felt-- for whatever reason-- could win the race. That would exclude a progressive person without the capacity to self-fund: Dave Lutrin. Instead he persuaded a registered, putatively wealthy shady Republican business man-- Mahoney-- to switch registration and "become" a Democrat. Hoyer, Emanuel and Wasserman Schultz clamped down on endorsements, campaign funds and everything else for Lutrin and forced him out of the race, giving the Republican a clear path to the Democratic nomination.

Mahoney ran, as a Democrat, against Foley's name (with some other poor schnook explaining that if voters voted for the child molester he-- the schnook-- would get the seat. It actually almost worked! Mahoney won with 49% while "Foley" got 48%, 3% going to an independent. In Congress Mahoney promptly set about compiled a corporately-funded campaign chest, a quasi-Republican voting record-- and a sex scandal to rival Foley's. He lost his re-election bid and a pathetic Republican zombie, Tom Rooney, is holding the seat, getting the idea that rote obstructionism is what being in Congress is about.

It was widely reported last week that Mahoney thinks it may be time for him to run for the seat again, presumably as a Democrat. Apparently, someone has told him that... scandal is back in again? Yesterday Dave Lutrin called me and told me he's running. This will be a classic example of the media and the DC insiders looking down their noses at a regular middle class American who dares to think he can run for what is increasingly an all millionaires club. We'll schedule a live session with him at C&L asap.