More Sad; More Triage

Paul Ryan's corporately-funded SuperPAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund has poured $1.8 million into WI-01 to defeat Randy Bryce with a campaign of vicious personal smears-- please help us respond here at IronStache Fund-- but because they are so obsessed with @IronStache and a handful of other progressives they want to keep out of Congress-- they no longer have the funds to help some of their own most vulnerable incumbents. As we pointed out in recent weeks, they've been practicing the art of triage on walking dead incumbents Keith Rothfus (PA), Chris Collins (NY), Barbara Comstock (VA), Erik Paulsen (MN), Jason Lewis (MN), and Rod Blum (IA), among others.

Late Friday, Alex Isenstadt added two more to the growing list of GOP incumbents Ryan is writing off as goners: Mike Coffman (CO) and Mike Bishop (MI). Bishop was a bit of a surprise, since Trump beat Hillary in his district 50.6% to 43.9% and the PVI is a fairly comfortable R+4. Bishop has been a loyal Trump rubber-stamp and the 538 forecaster still shows a 49.3-47.6% race.

Coffman is a different story, of course. He's in a blue district (PVI D+2) that Trump lost by 9 points. Coffman's only hope is that the Democratic nominee, Jason Crow is so terrible that Coffman could weather the wave. As bad a candidate as Crow is, polling shows him being swept into Congress by the wave anyway. Coffman is forecasted to have just a 1 in 5 shot to win. Maybe he shouldn't have been a devoted Trump ass-kisser.

Istenstadt reported that Ryan's PAC "will cancel its planned TV advertising for both members, a move that comes as the party refocuses its funds on races that leaders feel confident they can win-- and away from those it sees as out of reach. The organization had $1 million in TV advertising reserved for Coffman and $2.1 million for Bishop, dollars that will now be redistributed elsewhere. Party officials say both incumbents are trailing Democratic challengers ahead of the midterm elections, and both are expected to be significantly outspent during the final weeks of their campaigns."

Among the seats that the party feels increasingly pessimistic about are those held by Minnesota Reps. Erik Paulsen and Jason Lewis, Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock, and Iowa Rep. Rod Blum.

Party officials say additional incumbents will likely need to be cut off in the weeks to come.

The decision to cut off Bishop in particular, however, caught some by surprise. The second-term lawmaker represents an exurban Detroit-area district that was carried by Donald Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney four years earlier. Bishop, a former leader in the Michigan state legislature, won reelection in 2016 by 17 percentage points. This year, he is running against Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who was a defense official in the Obama administration.

Bishop aides pushed back on the notion their race was lost. On Friday afternoon, following the super PAC’s announcement that it was withdrawing, Bishop’s campaign released a memo claiming that recent polling showed the incumbent with a small lead over his Democratic opponent. The internal poll conducted last week showed Bishop with a slim 2-point edge over Slotkin, 45 percent to 43 percent.

“Our internals show us leading and we feel confident Mike Bishop will be re-elected," said Stu Sandler, a Bishop adviser.

A poll conducted for Slotkin's campaign the same week showed her with a 4-point advantage over Bishop, 47 percent to 43 percent.

Democrats appear especially confident in their prospects of defeating Coffman, a fifth-term political survivor who represents a Denver-area swing district. Earlier this week, the Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC canceled nearly $800,000 in planned TV advertising in the district.

CLF's move is the latest Republican move to pull money out of districts that are starting to look unwinnable. Last week, the National Republican Congressional Committee canceled all of its ad reservations in Rep. Keith Rothfus' (R-Pa.) district, as he faces an uphill battle for reelection against Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb.

The Ryan's PAC and the NRCC have also started going back on promises which were made when luring Republicans into House races. They recently wrote off Diane Harkey (CA-49), Janice Arnold-Jones (NM), Jay Webber (NJ), Pearl Kim (PA), Greg McCauley (PA), Marty Nothstein (PA), Lena Epstein (MI), Steve Watkins (KS) and Lea Marquez-Peterson (AZ) for dead. Trump had promised support, for example, to Danny Tarkanian in a Las Vegas-metro district but the GOP has now jettisoned him and left him to die out in the desert... alone.

Incumbents on the next round triage watch-list include Drunken Hunter (CA), Dana Rohrabacher (CA), Jeff Denham (CA), Carlos Curbelo (FL), Claudia Tenney (NY) and Leonard Lance (NJ).

How The DCCC Guarantees A Red Wave In 2022-- Take Colorado For Example

A pure lesser-of-two-evils race in CO-06

Mike Coffman (R-CO) tries very, very hard to pass himself off as a moderate. It's a farce. Coffman's suburban district wraps around Denver from Littletown and Centennial in the south, Aurora in the east and then Barr Lake and Brighton in the north. The PVI is D+2 and Obama won it both times he ran. Hillary didn't do as well as Obama, but Trump did worse than either McCain or Romney. In the end Hillary beat Trump in the 6th 50.2% to 41.3%-- two flawed candidates who voters didn't like. (Bernie beat Hillary in all three counties that make up the district.) Coffman has survived all the attempts the DCCC has made to dislodge him. This cycle the voters are wise to him and realize he isn't the moderate anti-Trump hero he pretends to be. How independent does this look to you?

Yesterday Alexis Levinson, reporting for BuzzFeed News, warned that Trump could send him crashing down. What she doesn't mention is that Coffman is running against the worst Democrat to ever challenge him-- and, in fact, one of the worst Democrats to be running this cycle. Jason Crow has joined the New Dems, a natural place for him. He's certainly from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party and the DCCC tried hard to pass him off as a lawyer who championed "the people," even though he was actually a lawyer for the pay day lending industry. My guess is that he's going to win and go on to be a truly terrible member of Congress and lose the seat to a Republican in 2022, like so many DCCC recruits this cycle. But in a wave elections, it barely matters how horrible the challenger is; he gets swept into office anyway. People in the 6th district want to vote against Trump and they'll vote against his enabler and rubber-stamp instead.

“The Trump effect is very real,” said Morgan Carroll, the chair the Colorado Democratic Party. Carroll is intimately familiar with the unique difficulties Democrats have faced in ousting Coffman: She was his Democratic opponent in 2016, and he beat her 51% to 43%, even as Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump 50% to 41% in the district.

...[T]ime has demonstrated how little [Coffman] can hold its own against the din of whatever Trump tweeted most recently, or whatever chaos is emerging from the White House and its orbit.

“In a year like this I think you have a lot of independent voters that basically just want to put a check on the president, and they’re going to send that message through those House members,” said former representative Tom Davis, who chaired the House Republican campaign arm.

“I try and tune out the president whenever I can, in terms of his tone and saying things that I think are inappropriate,” Coffman told BuzzFeed News.

“Unfortunately,” he acknowledges, “it takes a lot of oxygen.”

Democrats are hoping to capitalize on that fact. Trump is “certainly a big figure in this race,” Jason Crow, Coffman’s Democratic opponent, told BuzzFeed News in an interview in his campaign office. In 2016, when Coffman spoke directly to the camera in an ad and promised to “stand up” to Trump, a Trump presidency was theoretical. Now, argued Crow, “He’s had two years to fulfill that promise, and he’s broken it." The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has turned that ad into an ad of its own-- splicing Coffman’s words together alongside a calculation from FiveThirtyEight that he voted with Trump 96% of the time. It’s a stat Coffman calls “bogus.”

Coffman is desperate... and lying. His voting record is hard core Trump. Meanwhile Crow says he's "a very different candidate than folks who have run in this race before." That's true; he's barely a Democrat and will undoubtably alienate Democratic voters once he gets into office. "And we’re in a very different world than we certainly have been in prior election cycles." Also true. All the garbage gets swept into Congress... 'til the next midterm. FiveThirtyEight.com gives him an 81.1% chance to win the seat.

Going Into The Midterms, How Toxic Is Trump For Congressional Republicans?

Yesterday, Adam Smith quoted a Florida political insiders and operatives in a piece he did for the Tampa Bay Times about Señor Trumpanzee's impact on the Republican Party in the state. Democrats were jubilant and independents sounded like Democrats. One said, "The question is how has the Republican Party's silence on Donald Trump changed the party? Absolutely for the worse, unless you are his 30% base." But Republicans were split between glorying Trump and bemoaning his existence. Generally Smith found comments like these from Republicans:

• He has pushed the party right and into the position of nominating candidates who appear to be unelectable in the General Elections
• Energized the base…. alienated the moderates.
• it's the party of trump
• split the party
• He has ruined it.

But one GOP insider was especially cruel: "We've gone from being the party of Jeb Bush Republicans who can win everywhere and over perform in Democratic areas to the party of red hat Cletus the Slack-jawed Yokel and QAnon. Who thinks this is going to end well?"

Yesterday Trumpanzee was blithely tweeting away that "Tariffs are the greatest" while more and more Americans are feeling them in their pocketbooks in ways that are hardly "the greatest." And if that wasn't bad enough, vulnerable Republican congressman, Mike Coffman, who represents a ring of suburbs that surround Denver from the west to the south and up the east, told the media that Trump "absolutely" got played by Putin. "I think the first summit was a terrible mistake. The second summit would be equally as bad... I think he was strong in talking to our allies and weak when it came to Putin." More congressional Republicans are opening their eyes and seeing Trump as an albatross hung around their necks going into the midterms.

Of course, some GOP congressmen are their own albatrosses-- photo by Chip Proser

Around the same time that Trump was tweeting his nonsense, Chuck Todd and the crew at NBC's First Read were checking in with swing voters-- the 18% of voters who dislike both parties in the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. 55% are breaking for Democrats and 25% for Republicans, significantly up from lat month when 50% were breaking for Democrats and 36% for Republicans. "What’s more in our current poll," wrote the authors, "these voters disproportionately are down on Trump (68 percent disapprove of his job, versus 52 percent of all voters), and they are enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms (63 percent of them have high interest, versus 55 percent of all voters who say this)." This isn't going to hurt Republicans in deep red districts in, say, Alabama where they don't need independent voters to win. But look at Arkansas, as a different kind of example. All 4 districts are held by Republicans:

• AR-01- R+17- east
• AR-02- R+7- Little Rock
• AR-03- R+19- northwest
• AR-04- R+17 west and south

An anti-red wave isn't going to hurt Rick Crawford, Steve Womack or Buce Westerman. But French Hill is in real trouble and could lose his seat to Blue Dog Democrat Clarke Tucker. Overly cautious--very overly cautious-- Larry Sabato just moved AR-02 from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican." Judging by how Sabato rates races, that means Tucker is close to winning. It'sworth noting that Hill, an especially corrupt member of the House Financial Services Committee and a complete Wall Street puppet, had raised $1,954,935 by the June 30 FEC reporting deadline, compared to Tucker's $975,268. It a swing year that difference doesn't matter. Tucker has enough to get his message out, build name recognition and operate a field campaign. So long as he isn't wasting his money on consultants the DCCC is directing him to, he has what he needs too beat Hill.

And Arkansas is far from unique when it comes to this dynamic. Pennsylvania's new 17th congressional district has a PVI of R+1. Under the new boundaries, Trump would have beaten Hillary there 49.4% to 46.8%. But the incumbent, Keith Rothfus, is in big trouble. Conor Lamb lives within the new boundaries and he decided to run there instead of in the red hellhole he now represents-- and has become even redder under the newly redrawn congressional boundaries. In a newly released Monmouth poll he's leading Rothfus 51-39% in the Beaver and Allegheny counties district northwest of Pittsburgh. Arkansas, Pennsylvania... where else? Short answer: everywhere that Trump is.

McConnell's Crystal Ball: "If We Can’t Sell This To The American People, We Ought To Go Into Another Line Of Work."

Sunday I was surprised to see California wing-nut Mimi Walters, pushing out a message about how GOP tax policies are helping Americans. They're not-- especially not in her Orange County district, where people are paying significantly higher taxes because of those policies that she voted for. Katie Porter is Walters' progressive opponent in the June 5th jungle primary. Today she told us that "the tax policies that Mimi Walters is pushing will be a shock to middle-class families’ pocketbooks. These devastating tax changes will tilt our entire system even more towards the top 1% at a time when multinational corporations are parking record profits offshore, a handful of top-tier billionaires are getting richer and richer, and when the middle class is getting squeezed."

Monday morning Reuters released a report by David Morgan, Republicans in key election races turn down volume on Trump's tax cuts. It doesn't take much imagination to understand why this is very bad news for rubber stamp Republicans like Mimi Walters, who will have to face a powerful progressive Democrat, Katie Porter, with a coherent message of economic revitalization very different from Walters' bullshit.

Morgan noted that right after congressional Republicans passed their tax scam in December-- a reverse Robin Hood operation that robs from the poor to give to the wealthy-- GOP leaders like Trump, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell were "buoyant." McConnell told reporters that "If we can’t sell this to the American people, we ought to go into another line of work." Soon they will have no choice-- to find another line of work. "Four months later, McConnell’s attempt at levity could prove prophetic."

The most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the tightest congressional races in the November elections are talking less and less about the tax cuts on Twitter and Facebook, on their campaign and congressional websites and in digital ads, the vital tools of a modern election campaign, a Reuters analysis of their online utterances shows.

All told, the number of tax messages has fallen by 44 percent since January. For several congressmen in tough reelection fights, Steve Knight in California, Jason Lewis in Minnesota, and Don Bacon in Nebraska, messaging is down much more-- as much as 72 percent.

Right after the tax law passed, lawmakers piggybacked on a surge of corporate announcements of tax-cut fueled bonuses to employees, wage hikes and job creation plans to tout the benefits of the bill to voters.

As those corporate announcements trailed off in March and April, so did Republican politicians’ messages about tax relief, the Reuters review found. With the exception of a flurry of news releases on or around April 17, when federal tax returns were due, few incumbents kept up the pace. The Reuters review did not capture candidates’ email, direct mail or private conversations with donors or voters or stump speeches.

Most of the 13 Republican incumbents in the most competitive reelection bids, and their aides, declined to answer Reuters’ questions on why they were communicating less online about the tax cuts. But a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from March 14 to 29 found that just 3 percent of American adults were aware of receiving a material benefit from the Republican legislation.

Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, said that is why his party’s candidates need to energize voters by talking about other issues, too, like restricting immigration and stopping Democrats from taking control of the House of Representatives so that they cannot impeach President Donald Trump.

Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, acknowledged there “has been a downtick in what voters are hearing from members and businesses on the tax reform front.” He said it was because lawmakers had moved on to other issues.

“Candidates and members need to make sure that they stay focused on what is our signature achievement in this Congress,” Hunt said.

Five of the 13 candidates who did respond to Reuters said they do talk regularly to voters at events.

The Republican tax law sharply cut the corporate tax rate, encouraged corporations to repatriate overseas income at lower rates, and at least temporarily, cut taxes for the wealthy and most other Americans. Many of the benefits to individuals won’t become obvious until they file their tax returns in early 2019, and that is long after the congressional elections.

...Some polling results suggest that taxes are not the burning issue for voters that Republicans hoped they would be. A Quinnipiac University poll released in March said only 8 percent of voters thought taxes was the most important issue in deciding how to vote in the congressional elections. It was fifth, behind healthcare, the economy, gun policy and immigration.

It is also harder for Republicans to talk about lower taxes in states with high local taxes like New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia [and California]. That also happens to be where 10 of the 17 most competitive congressional races are.

Many taxpayers in those states will pay more in federal taxes because the new law reduces the deduction for state and local tax payments. About one in four Americans expect their state and local income taxes to rise because of the Republican tax law, while only 11 percent expect them to fall, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.

...Don Bacon, of Nebraska’s 2nd district, sees economic growth, and the threats posed by North Korea and Islamic State as the election-winning issues for Republicans. “Taxes will be one of the pillars of our campaign, but more indirectly. In the end, it’s going to be about an economy that’s growing.”

Kara Eastman is the progressive Democrat running for the Omaha-centered congressional seat occupied by Don Bacon. She took a moment off from knocking on doors this morning to point out to us that "the economy might be growing judged simply by the stock market and low unemployment, but wages are stagnant and not everyone is feeling the benefits of tax cuts designed to benefit corporations and the wealthy. At the doors, I meet so many people who are working hard, some are taking two or three jobs to make ends meet. Politicians need to start getting real and speaking, and even more importantly, listening, to the voters in their districts."

Republican Mike Coffman, whose reelection prospects are rated a toss-up in his Denver-area congressional district, has not been visible at all on taxes via social media. But his campaign spokesman, Tyler Sandberg, said Coffman talks about tax cuts regularly with supporters via email and with small business owners.

When they do talk about taxes, Republican candidates prefer to talk about the tax law in the context of how it is really a form of financial assistance to help families cope with college tuition, buy new cars, make mortgage payments, or even pay for summer camp.

Democrats, meanwhile, are attacking the new tax law as a boon for corporations and the wealthy that will add $1.5 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade.

They received some unexpected help from Republican Senator Marco Rubio last week. Rubio, who is not facing re-election this cycle, told the Economist magazine that benefits are going to corporations instead of employees.

“They bought back shares, a few gave out bonuses; there’s no evidence whatsoever that the money’s been massively poured back into the American worker,” he said.

Everyone's known it but Pelosi finally said it publicly. When asked about all those Democratic candidates-- like nearly all of them-- saying they won't vote for her to be Speaker, she told the media "I think if they have to do that to win the election, I’m all for it… Just win, baby." But she still expects to be elected leader this year and Speaker next year. I don't know where she thinks she's getting the votes... but she's good at that.

Will Trump Kill The DACA Program? That's Entirely Up To Paul Ryan

White power without the white sheets and hoods

With Trumpanzee determined to throw a bone to the most racist and xenophobic segment of his base by killing the very popular DACA program, congressional Republicans in swing districts and districts with big Hispanic populations started to panic. If you've looked at right-wing and extremist media in the last couple of days, you've probably noticed a new bête noire: Colorado Republican Mike Coffman. His district is both swingy-- Hillary beat Trumpanzee there 50.2% to 41.3%-- and loaded with activated Hispanic voters. (CO-06's population is over 20% Latino.)

A poll released Thursday by NBC News found that 64% of Americans support DACA, while 30%-- basically the Trumpist base-- oppose it.

On January 12, Coffman introduced the BRIDGEAct (H.R. 496), whose 25 co-sponsors include Republicans Carlos Curbelo (FL), Jeff Denham (CA), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL), Dan Newhouse (WA), Dave Reichert (WA), David Valadao (CA), Don Bacon (NE), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA), Dan Donovan (NY), John Faso (NY), Chris Stewart (UT) and Fred Upton (MI). Paul Ryan had it immediately referred to the House Judiciary Committee which is chaired by virulent and notorious racist Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) and in February Goodlatte assigned itto Raul Labrador's Subcommittee on Immigration and Border Security, where racist subcommittee members Lamar Smith (R-TX), Steve King (R-IA) and Jim Jordan (R-OH) have been able to bottle it up and prevent any action at all, despite strenuous efforts by Democrats on the subcommittee-- Zoe Lofgren (CA), Luis Gutierrez (IL), Pramila Jayapal (WA), Sheila Jackson Lee (TX) and David Cicilline (RI)-- to move the bill to a House vote. Gutierrez, Lofgren and Jayapal are co-sponsors of Coffman's bill.

Breitbart describes Coffman as "a strong supporter of Obama’s DACA amnesty for younger illegals, partly because the GOP and the state’s business and agriculture establishments have long encouraged large-scale immigration of Latino workers in Colorado. Those legal and illegal immigrants are a growing political force, and many-- plus their children-- are now voting for Democrats. Their votes ensured that Coffman’s Sixth District was won by President Barack Obama in 2012 and by Hillary Clinton in 2016."

Coffman is trying to create a congressional quasi-amnesty for more than 800,000 illegal immigrants now protected by former President Barack Obama’s DACA amnesty.

He is trying to collect signatures from 218 Democratic and Republican members for a “discharge petition,” which would ensure his amnesty bill will get a debate and a vote in the House.

Discharge petitions rarely work, in part, because both parties’ leaders use their power to ensure that ordinary members cannot collect the 218 votes to take temporary control of the floor schedule.

...Coffman says he wants a vote on his “Bridge Act,” which would provide immediate help to roughly 800,000 illegals who were brought into the United States as minors by their parents. His quasi-amnesty would grant a work permit and protection from deportation to qualifying illegals if they have a GED or better, are aged 18 to 36, and have not committed major crimes.  The bill’s provisions create a second-class status for the illegals because it would provide them with Green Cards or a track to citizenship.

Researchers say another 1 million illegals could qualify for the DACA amnesty when they are adults and if they graduate from high school.

So who is Coffman trying to circumvent with his discharge petition? Ostensibly Goodlatte but, in reality, Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy, who have ordered the complacent Goodlatte to bottle up the bill and keep it from being voted on. Ryan fears that the bill will pass, something that would put Trumpanzee into a frenzy of attacks on House Republicans, and he also fears that many of his members will be put into the awkward position of taking a stand that either paints them as racists or as targets for the hard core Trumpists in their districts.

And, like clockwork, Ryan is immediately attacked by the neo-Nazi website that backs Trump

This is a test of Ryan's poor leadership abilities--as well as his own soft core bigotry. [Randy quote]

If all 194 House Democrats support Coffman's discharge petition, he would still need 24 Republicans willing to sign on, with Ryan and McCarthy-- not to mention the hardcore racists from Judiciary like Goodlatte, Lamar Smith and Steve King-- actively working against it. As Jonathan Bernstein explained for Bloomberg readers yesterday, "Ryan could still try to substitute a watered-down measure to keep control of the House agenda for himself and his party while allowing those who want to cast a symbolic vote for DACA to do so. Or at least, that's what speakers have typically done. Ryan, however, has a pattern of protecting himself at the expense of his party. So while I am not making any predictions, I could imagine Ryan just allowing a discharge petition to succeed. Ryan could then tell anti-immigration hardliners that he had done everything possible to stop it, and that it wasn't his fault the thing reached the floor and passed despite his opposition. And, having passed the House, the measure would then put pressure on Mitch McConnell and other Republican Senators to move it further. Would Ryan really sacrifice the influence of the speaker and the party caucus just to avoid any blame for a DACA bill passing? We can't know yet, but it sure would fit the pattern that he established on health care."

Democrats Need Unity And A Strong Positive Platform To Beat Mike Coffman In CO-06

A few weeks ago we looked at why the DCCC recruit to oppose Colorado Republican Mike Coffman is the wrong guy for the nomination. Since then, one of the two progressive Berniecrats in the campaign, Gabriel McArthur, decided to withdraw from the race and run for Colorado Secretary of State instead, leaving Levi Tillemann as the progressive choice against the corporate Democrat the DCCC dug up to run. Sunday evening McArthur, in a Facebook note, decided to try to strengthen and unite the Democrat Party in CO-06 around Tillemann and his platform of positive values and programs.

Gabriel McArthur: I Am Endorsing Levi Tillemann for Colorado District Six's Primary Fight

At a joint event held earlier this month by Our Revolution Metro-Denver, Colorado Political Revolution, and The Colorado Working Families Party I announced that I will be bowing out of the race for Colorado district six and that I intend to run for Colorado secretary of state instead.

While my focus will be zeroing in on election integrity and innovation in the run for secretary, I remain fiercely passionate about single payer healthcare, tuition free college, automation preparedness, economic attention to traditionally ignored groups, and a number of other progressive issues. As such, I have examined who of the remaining candidates is will speak to these issues with conviction. Additionally, I've considered which Democratic candidate understands the best strategy to best Rep. Mike Coffman--a strategy that does not involve moving to the political center. A boldly progressive vision is the only viable path to victory.

Jason Crow, the candidate ordained by traditional media as the front runner in the primary, has come under fire from Republican opposition as a hand-picked candidate by The DCCC and the Democratic establishment. This is a sentiment that, accurate or not, presents a striking liability for Crow, especially in the wake of Jon Ossof's loss in Georgia's sixth district. It's also a sentiment that I believe to be true.

The American people are completely fed up with politics as usual, and while this certainly should be obvious, the political elite seem frustratingly oblivious to this fact. Their efforts on the Democratic side to edge out progressives in favor of cookie cutter candidates like Crow are not only contradictory to the values they claim to espouse, but have only resulted in a Republican supermajority that threatens our way of life.

I had the opportunity to speak with Levi Tillemann about his plans for district six, and I find his candidacy to be the most promising by far. Levi is the only other politician I'm aware of that understands the urgency in addressing the effects of automation on the workforce. He would be also be aggressive in working to transform our energy system, a move that not only would help conserve our natural resources but would create promising new industries and jobs.

Levi understands the necessity to work towards single payer healthcare as our current system faces challenges both from within its own framework, and Republican efforts to further privatize a preciously vital service.

District six is one of the most diverse in Colorado with a proud immigrant population that I identify with deeply. I'm a mixed-race American myself, whose maternal grandmother came from the Philippines and whose paternal family came from the Lakota Pine Ridge Reservation not far from Standing Rock. As a minority, I'm often skeptical of Democratic leaders who give lip service to our needs but very little action. I stressed this frustration to Levi, and I believe he is sincere in his understanding that minority votes are not a given for Democrats, and must be earned.

I will be supporting Levi in his fight against establishment favoritism, and endorse his candidacy in the hopes that he can turn the tide in a district Coffman should have lost several cycles ago.

Probably not the message the Papa John's Pizza Party wants circulating this week. But one Democratic and independent voters in the Denver suburbs should consider carefully.

Does Anyone Really Believe Trump Will Take On The Entire GOP To Give The American People Universal Health Care?

How many times have you heard your friends say something like, "Maybe he won't turn out that bad; after all he was a liberal Democrat his whole life. He's on record supporting Choice, supporting single payer, protecting Social Security and Medicare?" Forget it. Just forget it. He didn't let Pence talk him into appointing Georgia anti-Medicare fanatic Tom Price Secretary of Health and Human Services to do anything but destroy the health care social safety net. Trump doesn't believe in anything but winning-- at all costs... and not winning for a team, winning for Trump.

You probably remember the news reports after the election about Trump supporters who took him at his word when he explicity promised-- over and over again-- to be different from other Republicans and NOT take away their health care benefits and Social Security. Last month, for example, CNN ran an outstanding report (video above) on West Virginia and Kentucky Trump voters now frightened that Trump will sign Republican legislation that further devastates their lives. Trump repeatedly pledged two seemly incompatable approaches to health care during his campaign-- to repeal the Affordable Care Act and to make sure health coverage for poor people is even better. He never-- and has still not-- explained how he would do that. But his overwhelmingly and extraordinarily low-intelligence supporters aren't exactly critical thinkers and aren't used to getting into the weeds or figuring stuff out. They took Trump at his word. And now they're starting to worry.

On December 19 Dante Chinni was reporting for the Wall Street Journal that "more than 20 million Americans now depend on the ACA, also known as Obamacare, for health insurance. Data from Gallup indicate that a lot of those people live in counties that favored Mr. Trump. The Gallup data, analyzed with the county typology from the American Communities Project, show that eight county types have seen increases in health insurance coverage greater than the national average. Six of those types-- representing about 77 million people or 33 million votes, a quarter of the total cast-- sided with Mr. Trump, some by very large margins." Buyers' remorse was setting in-- and the Trumpists knew it.

And they knew it long before Colorado Republican Mike Coffman got a taste of it over the weekend when he snuck out the backdoor of a town hall meeting with angry constituents in Aurora, furious that Coffman had voted last week to repeal Obamacare (without a replacement). Since then, everyone has been buzzing about Bob Costa's Washington Post story about how Trump is promising universal health care again, probably, not in conjunction with the anti-health care fanatics-- Pence, Price, Ryan-- he's surrounded by. Trump told Costa his plan, which includes health insurance for all and overturning Republican Party dogma that prevents Medicare and Medicaid from negotiating fair prices for consumers with Big PhRMA. Referring to the huge bribes they pay Congress Trump said the drug makers have been "politically protected, but not anymore." (Keep in mind that the two top recipients of legalistic bribes from drugs manufacturers during the 2016 cycle have been Speaker Paul Ryan and Republican House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. They have worked diligently to protect the ability of the drug companies to gouge American consumers. Since 1990 Big PhRMA allies in Congress have gotten tens of millions of dollars from the drug makers particularly key committee chairs like Orrin Hatch (R-UT- $2,447,641), Richard Burr (R-NC- $1,466,696), Fred Upton (R-MI- $1,378,506). The two men who will set the agenda for drug pricing have been paid off very well by the drug companies over the leaders:

• Miss McConnell (R-KY)- $1,092,822
• Paul Ryan (R-WI)- $960,983

It's Trumpanzee so there are no specifics, just vague, contradictory promises. "Trump’s plan," wrote Coasta, "is likely to face questions from the right, after years of GOP opposition to further expansion of government involvement in the health-care system, and from those on the left, who see his ideas as disruptive to changes brought by the Affordable Care Act that have extended coverage to tens of millions of Americans."

The objectives of broadening access to insurance and lowering health-care costs have always been in conflict, and it remains unclear how the plan that the incoming administration is designing-- or ones that will emerge on Capitol Hill-- would address that tension.

In general, congressional GOP plans to replace Obamacare have tended to try to constrain costs by reducing government requirements, such as the medical services that must be provided under health plans sold through the law’s marketplaces and through states’ Medicaid programs. House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) and other Republicans have been talking lately about providing “universal access” to health insurance, instead of universal insurance coverage.

Trump said he expects Republicans in Congress to move quickly and in unison in the coming weeks on other priorities as well, including enacting sweeping tax cuts and beginning the building of a wall along the Mexican border.

Trump warned Republicans that if the party splinters or slows his agenda, he is ready to use the power of the presidency-- and Twitter-- to usher his legislation to passage.

“The Congress can’t get cold feet because the people will not let that happen,” Trump said during the interview with The Post.

Trump said his plan for replacing most aspects of Obama’s health-care law is all but finished. Although he was coy about its details-- “lower numbers, much lower deductibles”-- he said he is ready to unveil it alongside Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

“It’s very much formulated down to the final strokes. We haven’t put it in quite yet but we’re going to be doing it soon,” Trump said. He noted that he is waiting for his nominee for secretary of health and human services, Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.), to be confirmed. That decision rests with the Senate Finance Committee, which hasn’t scheduled a hearing.

Trump’s declaration that his replacement plan is ready comes after many Republicans-- moderates and conservatives-- expressed anxiety last week about the party’s lack of a formal proposal as they held votes on repealing the law. Once his plan is made public, Trump said, he is confident that it could get enough votes to pass in both chambers.

He declined to discuss how he would court wary Democrats. ...“I think we will get approval. I won’t tell you how, but we will get approval. You see what’s happened in the House in recent weeks,” Trump said, referencing his tweet during a House Republican move to gut their independent ethics office, which along with widespread constituent outrage was cited by some members as a reason the gambit failed.

As he has developed a replacement package, Trump said he has paid attention to critics who say that repealing Obamacare would put coverage at risk for more than 20 million Americans covered under the law’s insurance exchanges and Medicaid expansion.

“We’re going to have insurance for everybody,” Trump said. “There was a philosophy in some circles that if you can’t pay for it, you don’t get it. That’s not going to happen with us.” People covered under the law “can expect to have great health care. It will be in a much simplified form. Much less expensive and much better.”

Republican leaders have said that they will not strand people who gained insurance under the ACA without coverage. But it remains unclear from either Trump’s comments in the interview or recent remarks by GOP leaders on Capitol Hill how they intend to accomplish that.

...When asked in the interview whether he intends to cut benefits for Medicare as part of his plan, Trump said “no,” a position that was reiterated Sunday on ABC by Reince Priebus, Trump’s incoming chief of staff. He did not elaborate on that view or how it would affect his proposal. He expressed that view throughout the campaign.

Timing could be difficult as Trump puts an emphasis on speed. Obama’s law took more than 14 months of debate and hundreds of hearings. To urge lawmakers on, Trump plans to attend a congressional Republican retreat in Philadelphia this month.

Moving ahead, Trump said that lowering drug prices is central to reducing health-care costs nationally-- and that he will make it a priority as he uses his bully pulpit to shape policy. When asked how exactly he would force drug manufacturers to comply, Trump said that part of his approach would be public pressure “just like on the airplane,” a nod to his tweets about Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jet, which Trump said was too costly.

Trump waved away the suggestion that such activity could lead to market volatility on Wall Street. “Stock drops and America goes up,” he said. “I don’t care. I want to do it right or not at all.” He added that drug companies “should produce” more products in the United States.

Those around Trump trying to paper over the differences between him and every other Republican by claiming his goal is "to get insurance for everybody thru marketplace solutions, thru bringing costs down," which is what Sean Spicer said yesterday-- and which, in practical terms, doesn't mean anything at all. Sunday, thousands of Americans rallied for the Affordable Care Act. Bernie led one in Warren Michigan that included the state's two senators, Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters, local congressman Dan Kildee, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Elizabeth Warren-- along with Mayor Marty Walsh, Senator Ed Markey and congressmembers Katherine Clark and Richard Neal-- hosted an overflow capacity rally in Boston's historic Faneuil Hall and there were large rallies in San Francisco, New York (in front of a Trump hotel), Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Tampa, Sacramento, Honolulu, Philadelphia, Waukesha, Richmond, Burlington, Orlando, Chicago, Indianapolis, Des Moines (and 5 other Iowa cities), Newark, Albuquerque Los Angeles and Portland (both of 'em-- Maine and Oregon). And, of course, Pramila Jayapal hosted one at Westlake Park in Seattle.

The Trumpanzee Toxicity Up And Down The Ballot Is Becoming Clearer As Republicans Begin To Panic

The CBS battleground polls of likely voters that came out over the weekend for Virginia, Arizona and Nevada, is probably worrying for operatives at the NRSC and NRCC. Sure, the results were about the presidential race but these people have long written Mr. Trumpanzee off and their worries are about Republican candidates for Congress. Hillary's 49-37% lead in Virginia, pretty much takes it out of the realm of "battleground" and highlights real trouble for the GOP in 3 districts, Republican-held seats VA-04, VA-05, and VA-10 and possibly VA-07, where an anti-Trump tsunami in the Richmond suburbs could sweep Dave Brat out of office and replace him with Democrat Eileen Bedell. That might happen. Far more likely is that the open seat that Randy Forbes gave up (VA-04) is going to Democratic state Senator Donald McEachin, the open seat that Robert Hurt gave up could go to Jane Dittmar and the swingy blue-trending suburban 10th district in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties could toss out right-wing extremist Barbara Comstock and replace her with centrist LuAnn Bennett. Mr. Trumpanzee could help turn Virginia's congressional delegation from 3 Democrats and 8 Republicans to 7 Democrats and 4 Republicans.

95% of Virginia Democrats are now behind Clinton while Trump is at 79% GOP support and is likely to lose some of that to the new conservative on the block, Evan McMullin. The pollsters say that the "Commander-in-Chief" test looms large in Virginia and "has become the top decision-making criteria for voters now. Clinton leads on it: 57% say she is prepared while 36% say so of Trump."

So while swing state Virginia is looking less swingy and more solidly Democratic, deep red Arizona, which has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once since Truman in 1948, is shaky ground for Señor Trumpanzee, who leads 44-42%, "forcing Trump to defend usually-red territory, in part because of such strong Hispanic support behind Clinton. In Arizona, 80 percent of Hispanic voters feel they're more motivated to vote this year than previous years, and don't believe Donald Trump treats all people fairly." The attacks on the Khan family and on John McCain has also hurt Trumpanzee among independent voters. Ironically, if Trump continues to lose ground in Arizona, he's liable to drag McCain down and allow a weak, conservative New Dem, Ann Kirkpatrick, to win the Senate seat. The NRCC is also sweating two red-leaning districts-- Kirkpatrick's AZ-01 where a terrible Democratic candidate-- ex-Republican Tom O'Halleran-- will win a natural GOP pickup and McSally's AZ-02, where progressive Matt Heinz could oust the freshman congresswoman. The Trumpanzee meltdown also makes one of the 3 worst Democrats in the House, reactionary Kyrsten Sinema, safe in a Republican-leaning AZ-09.

The third poll was in Nevada and Clinton is less ahead than most people expected, leading Señor Trumpanzee 43-41%. It looks like 2 Republican incumbents are in trouble there: Cresent Hardy in a really big way-- smart money is on Ruben Kihuen-- and Mark Amodei, where any more erosion among Republicans could put Chip Evans into Congress. With any luck-- and any more Trumpanzee antics-- Nevada's congressional delegation could go from 3 Republicans and 1 Democrat to 4 Democrats, since even Harry Reid's weak pick in NV-03 to replace the retiring Joe Heck, Jacky Rosen, could beat perennial loser Danny Tarkanian.

Yesterday a new poll in Georgia by JMC Analytics showed Clinton continuing to pull ahead of Mr. T-- now with 44% to his 37% (with Gary Johnson at 7% and Jill Stein at 1%). Although it really is feasible for her to win Georgia, the NRCC and NRSC have no worries since the state party is essentially moribund and the elected officials there are so far to the right that they endorse Republicans on a regular basis, as Blue Dog, David Scott, one of Congress' most corrupt members, just did in the Senate race. As for the House, there are no Democrats running against Buddy Carter (GA-01), Doug Collins (GA-09), Jody Hice (GA-10), Barry Loudermilk (GA-11) and Tom Graves (GA-14) and just token, vanity candidates challenging Tom Price (GA-06), Austin Scott (GA-08) and Rick Allen (GA-12).

Even Orange County, California, once the heartland of American right-wing polictics, is accelerating it's trend towards the Democrats. Over the weekend, the Orange County Register reported that Democratic voter registration is surging, while old white Republicans die off. "[I]n the past six months, the pace of change has been four times as fast as the 26-year average-- due in part to the GOP’s controversial presidential nominee. That could hurt the local Republicans in November’s down-ticket races."

"Trump has become our best marketing tool," said Henry Vandermeir, chairman of the Democratic Party of Orange County. "He’s insulted pretty much every constituency in this county, which has helped drive Democratic registration and turnout to new highs."

...Bernie Sanders attracted young adults who might have otherwise not participated. And the competitive Democratic presidential primary in June boosted turnout, while the Republican contest was already decided.

As a result, more Democrats than Republicans cast ballots in the county. And it was the first time in 48 years that more county ballots were cast for Democratic than Republican presidential candidates.

...There are two close state legislative races where turnout could play a decisive roll: The state Senate race to replace termed-out Sen. Bob Huff, R-Diamond Bar, in the tri-county district where GOP Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang is facing Democratic activist Josh Newman; and Democrat Sharon Quirk Silva’s challenge of incumbent Assemblywoman Young Kim, R-Fullerton.

It could also help Democrat Michele Martinez’s challenge of incumbent Republican county Supervisor Andrew Do. And Democrat Doug Applegate, who finished less than 7 points behind Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, in the primary, is drawing attention from donors who see a chance for an upset of the incumbent, a Trump supporter.

...Republicans are now 39.7 percent of county voters, an all-time low. Democrats are at 34 percent, their highest since 1992. Voters with no party preference account for 22.6 percent, down from the all-time high of 23.6 percent last year.

That means Republicans’ 8-percentage point edge in February has shrunk to 5.7 points.

The long-term trend is largely due to shifting demographics. Latinos, who favor the Democratic Party over the GOP by more than 2-1, are 18 percent of the electorate and growing. And voters ages 18-34, who heavily favored Republicans in 2002, are now more likely to register as Democrats.

Republicans still prevail among voters in 24 of the county’s 34 cities, although the three biggest-- Anaheim, Santa Ana and Irvine-- are Democratic. In July, Tustin became the 10th city in the county to turn Democrat. That’s twice the total of a year ago. Fullerton is poised to follow suit, with the shrinking Republican advantage there down to 144 voters.

The other Democratic cities are Buena Park, Garden Grove, La Habra, La Palma, Laguna Beach and Stanton.

The incompetent DCCC didn't bother recruiting candidates against Ed Royce-- and they're not helping the grassroots Democratic candidate, Brett Murdock (CA-39)-- nor against Mimi Walters (CA-45), Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48) and Darrell Issa (CA-49). If an anti-Trumpanzee tsunami developed in Orange County, Issa can still be swept away by Doug Applegate's strong grassroots effort, but a vaguely competent DCCC would be working to end Issa's and Royce's career's now and hoping for the good luck they'd need to end Rohrabacher's. But thanks to Pelosi, we do not have a vaguely competent DCCC.

Chuck Todd wondered aloud Monday morning if down-ballot Republicans can avoid an anti-Trumpanzee tsunami. Short answer: nope. "Republicans focused on the downballot contests," he wrote, "are already looking for a parachute" and pointed to Colorado Republican Mike Coffman's TV ad (up top) promising to stand up to Trump if the voters reelect him, which is unlikely.

But there's one little problem with this kind of strategy: There usually aren't enough parachutes to go around for a party that loses a presidential contest, especially when it comes to Senate races. Since 2004, 80% of the Senate races that the nonpartisan Cook Political Report designated as a Toss Up before Election Day (20 out of 25) broke the same way the presidential race did in that particular state. So for every Dean Heller who won Nevada's Senate race in 2012 despite Barack Obama's victory in the state in the presidential election, there are four Norm Colemans (who lost his Senate seat in Minnesota in '08) or Scott Browns (who lost in Massachusetts in '12). And that history is particularly important this election season, when the Cook Report says there are five presidential battleground states-- Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania-- also holding Toss Up Senate races.

The one problem with that is Chuck Schumer's sincere and long-held belief that Democratic primary voters absolutely cannot be trusted with picking the "right" nominees. So he forced weak, possibly unelectable candidates on the party in Pennsylvania (fracking lobbyist Katie McGinty) and Ohio (ancien régime conservaDem Ted Strickland) and is attempting something far worse in Florida (spoiled and thoroughly corrupt rich kid and "ex"-Republican Patrick Murphy). Only Schumer's authoritarian nature and pig-headed narcissism could keep the Republicans in control of the Senate in 2016. What can Democrats do about it? Nothing in Pennsylvania and Ohio at this point. But... please help elect a progressive Senate and a progressive House where there are still opportunities to win:

Republicans Are Stuck With Trump-- And Will Sink Or Swim With Him

Battle for the soul of Long Island

Vulnerable-- but pig-headed-- Trumpist, Peter King, campaigned on Thursday with Mr. Trumpanzee in Suffolk County. (They attended a fat-cat fundraiser at the tony Nissequogue estate of right-wingers Carolyn and Steve Louro, formerly Rubio supporters, nowhere near King's district.) King is gambling with his own political future since a spate of recent Trump statements are beyond the pale for all but a few hard-core Trump die-hards. DuWayne Gregory, an ex-military officer who now serves as the presiding officer of the Suffolk County legislature and is challenging King for his blue-trending South Shore congressional seat, has been campaigning hard against King for his stuck-like-glue posture towards the unpopular Trump. This morning, Politico reported that when polled anonymously, 70% of Republican insiders say they want the Trumpanzee to drop out. "I’d rather take our chances with nearly anyone else than continue with this certain loser who will likely cost the Senate and much more," said a New Hampshire Republican.

Even if Peter King won't, in the last two days, two more sitting Republican congressmen-- neither of whom plans to retire-- joined New York's Richard Hanna in writing off Trump. Mainstream conservatives Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and Charlie Dent (R-PA), have told their constituents that they're not voting for Trump in November. Dent called Trump's crackpot statements towards Hispanic, Muslims, veterans, etc "too much" and, for him, "a bridge too far" to allow him to vote for his party's nominee. Kinzinger formerly an air force officer and pilot who saw action in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now a major in the Air National Guard flipped out over Trump's undermining of NATO and at the disrespect for the Gold Star Khan family. "[T]his spat, this unbelievable spat with a family of a fallen soldier, a fallen soldier who swore to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States. Between that, between of course blaming George W. Bush for 9/11 and all the other sins we’ve seen in the past, Donald Trump for me is beginning to cross a lot of red lines of the unforgivable in politics."

Yesterday, Politico reported that one of themes electorally vulnerable Republicans, Colorado's Mike Coffman-- a conservative in an uncomfortably moderate district-- just launched a pretty desperate TV ad (above) that is explicitly anti-Trump. It gets real personal real fast, Coffman saying in the first few seconds that "Honestly, I don't care for him much... if Donald Trump is the president, I’ll stand up to him. Plain and simple." He better hope no one shows it to the Trumpanzee or tells him that Coffman also released it en español as well as English. It started running today. In any case, Coffman is likely to lose his race to state Senate Minority Leader Morgan Carroll.


Writing for Bloomberg yesterday, Sahil Kapur reported that Republican office holders feel they are stuck with the crazy Trumpanzee even as they see him wrecking their party and destroying their own careers. He asserts that tensions between Trump and the GOP "have reached a boiling point in the wake of his feud with the parents of slain Muslim-American soldier Humayun Khan" and are certain his behavior is not just purposely controversial but self-destructive. Few see any chance for a Trumpanzee pivot. A senior Trumpanzee advisor Kellyanne Conway rejected the idea some Republicans are floating of Trump dropping out of the race, calling it "wishful thinking."

Trump is “facing an electoral wipeout at this point. I think getting him to change his behavior is a fool’s errand,” said Matt Mackowiak, a Texas-based Republican strategist. “He’s now doing intentional damage to the party. He’s hurting our candidates. It’s clear he doesn't care about the Republican Party, so what responsibility does the Republican Party have to him at this point?”

...He’s alienated prominent Republicans such as former Representative Vin Weber, who told CNBC’s John Harwood he’ll probably leave the party if Trump wins. The Trump-Khan spat was the final straw for several GOP figures who came out for Clinton--including former California gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman, former Jeb Bush adviser Sally Bradshaw, former Chris Christie adviser Maria Comella, and retiring U.S. Representative Richard Hanna.

...[T]he reports of a campaign in disarray have pro-Trump Republicans worried.

“I'm mostly concerned with the rumors coming out that Manafort has no operational control and that Trump is winging it. If they're not a campaign at the top this could be really bad for Republicans all the way down the ticket,” said John Feehery, a Republican strategist and lobbyist. “All this other stuff is kind of typical-- his blather and his inability to restrain his emotions. I don't see mass defections from his voters on this.”

Still, Trump's rough stretch doesn't mean GOP politicians will reject him, at least for the foreseeable future. His command of an energized plurality of the party base during the primaries means Republicans up and down the ballot this fall will rely on his voters to win their races.

“If you're an elected official you have to appeal to them somehow. Just walking away from Trump is political suicide,” Feehery said. “In most Republican districts, Trump is very popular. And all this politically incorrect stuff is very popular with the Republican base. ... You can't diss the Donald Trump voter.”

Florida's Marco Rubio, who like Peter King up on Long Island, is too scared of Trump to try to hold him accountable, refused to criticize Trump for the gut-wrenching way he dealt with the Khan family and Trump patted him on the head for it Wednesday in Daytona Beach. "I endorsed Marco Rubio, he endorsed me. He's doing well. Go for Marco," the narcissistic Trumpanzee told the crowd. Rubio did poorly in the Daytona Beach area during the Florida presidential primary, losing to Trump 34,167 (53.3%) to 13,493 (21.1%) and even worse in neighboring Putnam County, where Rubio came in 3rd with 17.4% of the vote to Trump's 57.3% and Cruz's 18.7%. Without Trump's support, Rubio could lose even to as weak a candidate as Patrick Murphy if Murphy gets through the primary, and Rubio would be wiped out completely by progressive firebrand Alan Grayson if Grayson wins the primary.



Even the one reason conservatives give for sticking with Trump-- he'll be better than Hillary in shaping a right-wing Supreme Court-- is wearing thin. Right-wing nut Ramesh Ponnuru, also writing for Bloomberg Thursday asserted that the Trumpanzee can't be trusted by conservatives.

Trump has offered a list of judges whom he might nominate to the court if he is elected. Conservatives have praised that list, saying the judges on it would move the court back toward a more appropriate role.

But conservatives can have no confidence that Trump would both nominate and win confirmation for someone on the list.

Trump’s word is meaningless. He stiffs creditors and contractors. He lies about matters small and large: about having told Republicans to hold their convention in Ohio, about letters he supposedly received from the NFL and about having opposed the Iraq war from the start. Trump isn’t even trustworthy on his signature issue of immigration: He flip-flopped twice in one day during the campaign about whether high-skilled immigrants should be kept out as a threat to American jobs or welcomed as a boon to our economy.

Why would he keep his word on the courts? He doesn’t care about the Constitution or the proper role of judges. When he talks about the Constitution, it’s glibly and dismissively. When it’s suggested that the Constitution might pose an obstacle to his plans, he says it “doesn’t give us the right to commit suicide.” He knows almost nothing about the law: He can’t tell the difference between a judicial opinion and a bill.

The few times he has taken an interest in constitutional issues, he has been on the other side from most conservatives. He thinks the government should have broad power to take people’s property and give it to developers; they don’t. He has used courts as a weapon to silence critics, and thinks it should be easier to use them that way. Most conservatives find that record and that idea appalling. If President Trump asks his aides to find him a judge who agrees with him on these issues, they will start by scrapping his list.

To get a conservative on the Supreme Court would require a President Trump to wage an ideological war with Senate Democrats, even though he says he would prefer to be a dealmaker, and even though that war would turn on issues for which he has never in his life shown the slightest concern. Instead of making good on his promise, he could cut a deal with the Democrats. His nominee could then win confirmation with the support of most Democrats, moderate Republicans, and some conservative Republicans who will want to be on the same side as Trump. Then he could turn to issues that excite him, like the precise design of the “big beautiful door” he is going to put in his wall with Mexico.

...The argument that conservatives have to support Trump because of the courts is not just a weak argument. It’s an argument from weakness. It’s an argument that conservatives should overlook every flaw Trump has, every objection they have to him, because-- well, listen to how Trump put it in Cedar Rapids. “Have no choice, sorry, sorry, sorry. You have no choice."

These are not the words of a man who respects conservatives who care about the courts as a vital part of his coalition. They’re the words of a man who is barely trying to hide his contempt for them. Conservatives who trust him on the courts are earning that contempt.

Today the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported that Hillary is leading the Trumpanzee in Georgia 44-40%, a state that gave Romney a 53-46% win over President Obama. In May the same poll had shown the Trumpanzee ahead, 45-41%. Hillary hasn't run any ads in Georgia... yet.