The Culture Of Compromise... And Looking Ahead To 2022

On Monday morning, the Washington Post published an increasingly rare solo-piece-- rather than team effort-- this one by Annie Linskey: Biden's Flexibility Could Mean Bloody Fights. So! Someone has noticed! "He remains vague on policy." You think? Linskey started her piece by going right to the heart of why there is so much mistrust of the Biden campaign on the left and why even some of the most fervent Trump detractors are reluctant to commit to the hold-you-nose electoral strategy. "When Joe Biden released economic recommendations two months ago," she wrote, "they included a few ideas that worried some powerful bankers: allowing banking at the post office, for example, and having the Federal Reserve guarantee all Americans a bank account. But in private calls with Wall Street leaders, the Biden campaign made it clear those proposals would not be central to Biden’s agenda. 'They basically said, Listen, this is just an exercise to keep the Warren people happy, and don’t read too much into it,' said one investment banker, referring to liberal supporters of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). The banker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private talks, said that message was conveyed on multiple calls... The Biden campaign said the economic recommendations were produced jointly by supporters of Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and were never intended as official policy."

This reluctance to be pinned down on policy details is central to Biden’s campaign, which has focused on a pledge to “restore the soul of the nation” rather than any particular legislative holy grail. While Biden has issued a raft of proposals, he’s often taken an all-things-to-all-people approach, sometimes making strong public declarations while relying on aides to soothe critics behind the scenes.

That strategy, reflecting a decades-long career in which Biden has seen himself more as mediator than ideologue, has helped him unify the party’s liberal and moderate wings behind the shared goal of defeating President Trump. But it also is laying the groundwork for bitter internal battles, should Biden win the presidency, on topics from race to climate to trade, while Wall Street leaders plan to have their way with a president many expect to be unusually susceptible to outside pressure.

...“We knew we weren’t going to get Medicare-for-all,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA). “The question then for me was: How do we get some foundational pieces of Medicare-for-all, even if the words ‘Medicare-for-all’ aren’t there?”

Biden’s team agreed, for example, that low-income Americans would be automatically enrolled in Biden’s public option and that Medicare, not a private company, would run it-- significant concessions that nonetheless fell under Biden’s original framing.

“A good tell about how Biden would operate is there’s room for him to run as long as he doesn’t feel like he’s overturning his brand of moderation,” said one liberal who negotiated with Biden’s team.

Sounds like a bloody 4 years are coming up-- with a 2022 catastrophe in the making, when voters-- furious that the Biden administration, along with a Democratic-controlled Senate and House, are unable to deliver on anything of importance to working families. The 2010 midterm disaster will look like paradise compared to the Republican resurgence in 2022. The Biden campaign is about two things: a wrecked old man who wants it to say he was president on his tombstone and a coalition of conservatives and wary normal people who want to get rid of Trump. Policy-wise, there is no there there and 2021 is not going to be pretty as disparate groups fight for a piece of the pie.

Last week, reviewing John Nichols' book, The Fight For The Soul Of The Democratic Party, for Jacobin, Paul Heideman, asserted that this predicament is nothing new since The Soul of the Democratic Party Has Always Belonged to Capital. When did the Democratic Party go bad. Many say it was "with Bill Clinton and the Third Way in the 1990s" while other say it was "with Carter’s embrace of austerity" while other "more conspiratorially inclined parts of the left have argued, when JFK was assassinated? Or has the party never been anything more than 'history’s second-most enthusiastic capitalist party?' Where you draw the line says a good deal about your politics." Nichols, he wrote, "draws the line very early indeed, with the removal of Vice President Henry Wallace from the ticket in 1944. The book is written explicitly as an intervention into current debates over the future of the party, and its argument that for most of the twentieth century, the Democratic Party was degenerating, is reflective of the radicalism of one pole of that debate. For Nichols, Wallace represents the real soul of the New Deal Democratic Party. A proud progressive, dedicated anti-racist, and passionate anti-fascist, Wallace attempted to continue Franklin D. Roosevelt’s legacy, only to be stymied by more conservative forces inside the party. This narrative occupies the book’s first half, while the second half covers the history of the party in the seven decades following Wallace’s defeat in 1944. The result is a readable introduction to both Henry Wallace, one of the most interesting American politicians, and the Democratic Party’s long history of betraying progressive ideals."

Did someone mention "the Democratic Party’s long history of betraying progressive ideals?" There is no better emblematic case of that than Joe Biden, you know... the guy all your progressive friends are telling you have to vote for in November (as part of the existential fight against fascism). In the same issue of Jacobin, Luke Savage is as pessimistic about a Biden presidency as I am. Does no one else see the disaster on the horizon. I explained it to one of my favorite Members of Congress the other day. She didn't say she disagreed with my prediction of a 2010 midterm-redux in 2022, only "Let's get there first," meaning electing Biden and a huge load of conservative Democrats to Congress first. Thanks, but no thanks. She wanted me to help her raise money for Blue Dogs and New Dems running for the House. I love her but... give me a break. Blue America works to defeat conservatives, whether Republicans or fake Dems from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. Savage takes issue with the idea that Biden, like Ed Markey, is a flawed liberal who could-- again, like Markey-- embrace the Sunrise Movement and everything would be hunky-dory. Markey-- who hold the #1 lifetime position at Progressive Punch-- may be a flawed liberal, but Biden isn't and never was a liberal. He's a conservative-- a really, really bad conservative-- as bad as his hair plugs and fake teeth. As imperfect as the results show ProgressivePunch's system is, it's the best measurement Ive found and, as you see, Markey's record is significantly better than either Elizabeth Warren's or Bernie's.

The 10 best Dems in the Senate

No, I don't believe for one second that Markey's more progressive than either, just that he's at #1-- which says something-- where as the senators more ideologically aligned with Biden-- both now and when he was amnestying atrocious senator himself-- are in a whole different category of Democrats:

The 10 worst Dems in the Senate

Chuck Schumer plucked Kyrsten Sinema-- then head of the Blue Dogs and sporting the single worst voting record of any House Dem-- out of the House and gave her the Democratic Senate nomination in a year when a Democrat was going to win in Arizona. He just did the same thing with another Arizonan likely to prove as far right as Sinema, Mark Kelly. And it doesn't stop there. Schumer has guaranteed the most conservative Democratic-controlled Senate in anyone's lifetime: Hickenlooper (CO), Cunningham (NC), Harrison (SC), Bollier (KS), Ossoff (GA), Heger (TX), McGrath (KY), Gideon (ME), Gross (AK), Greenfield (IA)... And Cheri Bustos is doing a similarly horrible job in the House. The Red-to-Blue program is nearly identical with the list of New Dem and Blue Dog endorsements. It will be a Biden Congress.

Markey did, after all, vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq and support NAFTA. He even backed the USA PATRIOT Act back in 2001 (though voted against its reauthorization in 2005, 2010, and 2011). That he nonetheless won the respect of so many young left-wing voters therefore does yield an important lesson for other Democratic candidates and elected officials.

As former Sanders organizer Claire Sandberg put it earlier this week: “Corporate Democrats want to make the Left out to be purity-obsessed and unwilling to compromise, but the Left rallied around a longtime politician with a mixed record because he actively courted their support and became a champion of one of their major legislative priorities.”

Where I differ from [Michelle] Goldberg is in thinking that this is the kind of lesson a politician like Joe Biden either wants to or could conceivably learn. Near the end of her piece, Goldberg writes: “I hope Joe Biden listens. Young voters favor him over Trump by large margins, but their lack of enthusiasm could dampen turnout.” She quotes Sunrise’s Executive Director Varshini Prakash: “The best thing that Joe Biden could do would be to speak in clear, exciting visionary terms about exactly what he plans to do to tackle the climate crisis, racial inequality, and economic inequality.”

It’s a capital suggestion-- and one Biden is certain to ignore. That’s because, whatever officially appears in the Democratic platform (Goldberg, for example, cites the recommendations of the Sanders/Biden joint task force) is entirely secondary to the political coalition Biden is trying to build, and the one he built to win the Democratic nomination.

Much like Hillary Clinton did in 2016, Biden is aiming to win the presidency by motivating conservative-leaning suburban voters and some Republicans-- with more traditional (and liberal- and progressive-minded) Democratic constituencies turning out in sufficient numbers where it counts. The former group was largely the target audience for this year’s DNC, which  pandered endlessly to the sensibilities of anti-Trump Republicans and rich suburbanites. The latter, meanwhile, gets lectures about how they need to be more enthusiastic while young voters get virtual Biden/Harris lawn signs in Animal Crossing instead of Medicare For All.

Centrist Democrats do want the support of young and left wing voters, of course. But they uniformly want it on their own centrist terms.

All this may be a strategic choice on Biden’s part, but it’s also a feature endemic to the faction that controls the Democratic Party as a whole. Biden’s nomination, which party power brokers ultimately did everything they could to ensure, represented a very conscious repudiation of the alternative course offered by Bernie Sanders-- one which was decidedly less interested in the votes of suburban conservatives and, perhaps more importantly, which pledged to reject the dictates of the donor class that Democratic elites have long embraced.

As such, there is simply no incentive structure in place to shift Biden from his current course.

In Massachusetts, a hitherto quite conventional liberal politician recognized that it would be in his interest to harness the energy and power of young activists. He embraced their agenda and saved his career in the process. Whether Markey’s shift represented a sincere change of heart or pure political self-interest is a secondary matter: he faced an existential challenge and pivoted towards the only constituency he believed could save him from defeat. The young left, which Biden’s candidacy has always been about marginalizing and repudiating, enjoys no such leverage with Biden.

Goldberg is absolutely right to argue that the Markey campaign yielded real lessons for centrist Democrats. The problem is assuming those are lessons that centrist Democrats are under any real pressure to learn.

Biden's Cabinet Will Suck-- But, As In All Things, Not As Badly As Trump's... And Looking Ahead To The 2022 Midterms

In 2008, John McCain's first choice for a running mate was Joe Lieberman, one of the only Democrats who could make a credible argument that he was the more conservative Joe among Dems, not Biden. They were both detestable senators and Lieberman was eventually kicked out of the party by the grassroots, even with the Democratic establishment sticking with him through his trials and tribulations. But McCain was talked out of selecting him by one of today's top #NeverTrumps, Steven Schmidt, who thought-- incorrectly, as he would tell you himself now-- that Sarah Palin would be the best choice.

The only time-- as far as I know-- that a presidential candidate chose someone from the other party as his running mate was in 1864, when Abe Lincoln dumped vice president Hannibal Hamlin (R-ME) for Andrew Johnson, a Democrat, in the name of national unity. When Lincoln was assassinated, Johnson became president, a disaster for the country and especially for the recently freed slaves, with whom he had no sympathy at all and against whose interests he worked tirelessly. He was impeached in 1868 but avoided being tossed out of office by one Senate vote. That same year, he lost the Democratic Party nomination for president and is remembered in history as one of America's worst presidents, some even say worse than Trump, although, obviously that's impossible.

It's much easier-- and more traditional-- for presidents to put members of the other party in their cabinets. Even Trump did as much-- if you want to count Michael Flynn and Peter Navarro as Democrats (they technically were). Obama appointed a ton of Republicans to his cabinet: Robert Gates (Secretary of Defense), Ray LaHood (Secretary of Transportation), Chuck Hagel (Secretary of Defense), Robert McDonald (Secretary of Veterans Affairs) and appointed Ben Bernanke as chair of the Fed and Jerome Powell as a member. George W. Bush's token Democrat was Norm Minetta (Secretary of Transportation). Bill Clinton gave Alan Greenspan the FED chair, made William Cohen secretary of defense and appointed Republicans Michael Chertoff, William Sessions, Sheila Bair, David Gergen, Lois Freeh, and John Negroponte to important sub-cabinet positions. Reagan had a fake-Dem, William Bennett, as Secretary of Education and another fake-Dem, Keane Kirkpatrick as UN ambassador. Jimmy Carter appointed Republican James Schlesinger as Secretary of Energy. Nixon had fake-Dem John Connally as Treasury Secretary. And JFK appointed Robert McNamara Secretary of Defense, Douglas Dillon Secretary of the Treasury, John McCone director of the CIA, McGeorge Bundy National Security Advisor and Christian Herter U.S. Trade Rep.

I predict that Biden's administration will be the most bipartisan in living memory. All these Republicans for Biden groups know what they're doing and many of the principals are top political players. If Jaime Harrison defeats Lindsey Graham in November-- not likely, but not impossible-- I wouldn't be surprised to see Graham get a top job, maybe even Secretary of Defense! Rahm Emanuel is so happy he's peeing in his tutu. Yesterday BuzzFeed reporter Henry Gomez looked into the motivations behind Kasich's DNC speech last night. Basically, after spending decades trying and failing to "shape and reshape" the Republican Party, Kasich would now like to help shape and reshape the Democratic Party. Most Democrats say "Screw you!" Gomez quoted a veteran Democratic operative who has experience in Ohio: "Maybe we shouldn’t have guys who tried to break unions and put gag orders on rape crisis counselors speak at our convention?"

Kasich’s welcome endorsement and the overall programming of the convention say a lot about Biden’s vision for the Democratic Party he now leads. Viewers may get a minute of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the young New York lawmaker who excites progressives, but they’ll also hear from John Kerry, an elder of the establishment. And Kasich is sharing a night with Sen. Bernie Sanders-- a democratic socialist and the runner-up for this year’s nomination-- in a scheduling move intended to demonstrate Biden’s ideology-spanning support.

“I think both parties have to have new ideas, and I think this country is moderate,” said Kasich, winding up to a gentle criticism of Ocasio-Cortez. “People on the extreme, whether they're on the left or on the right, they get outsized publicity that tends to define their party. You know, I listen to people all the time make these statements, and because AOC gets outsized publicity doesn't mean she represents the Democratic Party. She's just a part, just some member of it. And it's on both sides, whether it's the Republicans or whether it's the Democrats.”

...Kasich describes his alliance with Biden and the Democrats as a “team of rivals”-- a phrase borrowed from the historian Doris Kearns Goodwin and her book on Abraham Lincoln’s Cabinet. Kasich acknowledged that his convention speech, which he prerecorded from Westerville, Ohio, will raise speculation that he might be in line for a post in Biden’s Cabinet.

“People say, ‘Well, he must have been promised something or he must have received something.’ I haven't been promised anything, nor have I received anything,” he said.

“I'd be more than glad to advise, but I'm not going back to Washington,” Kasich added. “Could you imagine my being Secretary of Commerce? I mean, I wouldn't survive. I'll try to keep my voice out there. And look, you know, we'll just see how it goes. Let's just see how it goes.”

When convention delegates-- the majority of whom are Biden delegates of course were asked to react to the statement, "We should support a comprehensive single-payer, government-run insurance system that eliminates all copays and deductibles, is not tied to employment, and does not require payment at the point of service," 75.3% agreed. And when asked to react to the statement "We should support expanding the current healthcare system to Medicare for All that is comprehensive in its coverage," 75.2% agreed. Remember, Biden threatened, during the primaries, that if Congress passes Medicare-for-All, he'd veto it. (But not as meanly as Trump?)

Yesterday, at Too Much Information, Andrew Perez and David Sirota wrote that Biden's team-- i.e., the Democratic Party-- is signaling a post-election cave to the GOP and the sickness industrial complex on health care.

On the eve of a Democratic National Convention taking place as millions lose health care coverage, the health care industry is launching a new ad campaign pressing Democrats to back off the party’s already compromised health care promises. That pressure seems to be having its intended effect on Capitol Hill as congressional aides say the party will not push the initiative if Biden wins. The signs of retreat come as health care industry profits are skyrocketing and the industry’s campaign cash has flooded into Democratic coffers.

The Partnership for America’s Health Care Future (PAHCF)-- a front group created by health insurance, pharmaceutical and hospital lobbying groups to oppose “Medicare for All”--  announced on Friday that it is launching a new national ad campaign to persuade Democrats to abandon their plans to create a public health insurance plan. The group said it will run ads during the Democratic National Convention (DNC) this week. PAHCF is led by a former Hillary Clinton aide and run out of the offices of a D.C. lobbying firm led by former top Democratic congressional aides.

A substantial “public option” plan-- which polls show is wildly popular-- was the centerpiece of recent policy negotiations between supporters of former Vice President Joe Biden and progressive Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who had been pushing for a more expansive Medicare for All program. A draft of the party platform, approved by DNC members late last month, includes a pledge to pass a public option, or a government-run health insurance plan that would compete with private insurers.

Within 24 hours of the launch of the industry’s new ads, however, anonymous Democratic congressional sources were telling The Hill that Democrats likely won’t bother with the public option fight next year if Biden wins the election. Instead, they said the party will instead work to tweak the party’s 2010 health care law, the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which has done little to limit insurance or hospital costs and has failed to ensure universal coverage.

A DWT prediction: Biden won't be as bad a president as Trump but within a year, people will be hoping he dies and Kamala takes over. The Democratic-controlled Senate will be barely better than the Republican-controlled Senate in terms of getting anything done for working families. Pelosi's larger but impotent House majority-- where the Republican wing of the party will be dominant-- will also accomplish absolutely nothing the voters want. The result: massive Democratic losses in the 2022 midterms, massive enough to dwarf 2010.

This is a good ad and worth watching again. I'm just wondering if California GOP congressmembers Kevin McCarthy, Devin Nunes, Doug LaMalfa, Crooked Ken Calvert, Tom McClintock, Mike Garcia and former Reps Darrell Issa and David Valadao (nothing trying for come-backs) have had the guts to comment on Señor Trumpanzee's statement about cutting off FEMA funds to California yet. What would happen after an earthquake if that asshole wins again? Miles Taylor, the fellow in this video told ABC News that he's "not going to mention any other names yet, but the president can expect that in the coming weeks and months he is going to hear from more people that served in his administration," calling this video an "opening salvo" and making it clear there are other Republicans who will be saying similar things about Trump's corruption, dysfunction, incompetence and unsuitability for public office.

So How Many More Seats Will The Democrats Win In Texas Next Year?

John Cornyn and Cristina Ramirez

It’s bizarre predicting who will win congressional seats even before primaries determine who the candidates will be in November. Texas has especially spirited primaries all over the place, starting with the Senate race. Incumbent John Cornyn isn’t especially popular but Texas is still a Republican state and it’s hard to imagine a Democrat beating him-- unless it’s the right Democrat rat with the right strategy and execution… and a nice healthy Democratic wave. Cristina Ramirez might be just the right person to do that. She’s easily the best of the 11 confirmed candidates. How does this sound? “The best way to get people motivated and excited to actually participate in our democracy is by talking about policies that will actually change their lives. I know that because I’ve been fighting for working people in Texas for over a decade. When I was 24, I founded the Workers Defense Project, a labor organization that represents workers, not an easy task in a right to work state like Texas. But even so, I went up against big bosses of the construction industry, and local city councils to advocate for and secure victories for working people. During my tenure, Workers Defense Project recovered almost $1 million in wages stolen from workers, secured paid rest breaks for construction workers and got wage increases for public school teachers. John Cornyn doesn’t represent working people. He’s voted against minimum wage increases, voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and sided with pharmaceutical companies instead of helping to lower prescription drug costs. I, on the other hand, know that it’s not too much to ask, that in the richest country in the world, everyone’s healthcare is covered through a Medicare for All system. I know that a Green New Deal would create millions of jobs while combating climate change.”

OK, now let’s go down all 36 congressional districts, move of which are not yet seriously contestable.

• TX-01- Solid red- Louie Gohmert (PVI is R+25)
• TX-02- Leans red- Dan Crenshaw (R+11)
• TX-03- Likely red- Van Taylor (R+13)
• TX-04- Solid red- John Ratcliffe (R+28)
• TX-05- Solid red- Lance Gooden (R+16)
• TX-06- Leans red- Ron Wright (R+9)
• TX-07- leans slightly blue- Lizzy Fletcher (R+7)- worthless New Dem who has done nothing to deserve reelection and will be in mortal danger in 2022
• TX-08- Solid red- Kevin Brady (R+28)
• TX-09- Solid blue- Al Green (D+29)
• TX-10- Swinging blue- Michael McCaul (R+9)- If Democrats choose Mike Siegel, this is a likely flip; neither of the other two candidates is electable but the DCCC (and EMILY’s List) don’t care if they win the seat. They just want to keep it away from a progressive.
• TX-11- Solid red- Michael Conaway- retiring (R+32)
• TX-12- Solid red- Kay Granger (R+18)
• TX-13- Solid red- Mac Thornberry- retiring (R+33)
• TX-14- Leans red- Randy Weber is- retiring (+12)
• TX-15- Solid blue- Vicente Gonzalez (D+7)
• TX-16- Solid blue- Veronica Escobar (D+17)
• TX-17- Leans red- Bill Flores- retiring (R+12)- local GOP is a mess and fatally flawed crooked Republican Pete Sessions could be vulnerable if he wins the GOP primary
• TX-18- Solid blue- Sheila Jackson Lee (D+27)- she could be in danger in the primary
• TX-19- Solid red- Jodey Arrington (R+27)
• TX-20- Solid blue- Joaquin Castro (D+10)
• TX-21- Toss Up- Chip Roy (R+10)- Wendy Davis could beat Roy if the wave is big enough
• TX-22- Leans red- Pete Olson- retiring (R+10)- very flawed Democratic primary frontrunner
• TX-23- Likely to flip blue- Will Hurd retiring (D+1)- If Gina Jones loses again, perhaps the Democrats will run a Latino in 2022 and win the heavily Hispanic district
• TX-24- Leans slightly red- Kenny Marchant- retiring (R+9)- clusterfuck Democratic primary but Candace Valenzuela looks like the best candidate to flip the seat blue
• TX-25- Leans red- Roger Williams (R+11)- 2 very strong
progressives in the primary
• TX-26- Solid red- Michael Burgess (R+18)
• TX-27- Likley red- Michael Cloud (R+13)
• TX-28- Solid blue- Henry Cellar (R+9)— Cuellar in jeopardy in the primary with strong challenge from Jessica Cisneros
• TX-29- Solid blue- Sylvia Garcia (D+19)
• TX-30- Solid blue- Eddie Bernice Johnson (D+29)
• TX-31- Leans slightly red- John Carter (R+10)- another clusterfuck of a Democratic primary
• TX-32- Leans slightly blue- Collin Allred (R+5)- another worthless New Dem who has done nothing to deserve reelection and will be in mortal danger in 2022
• TX-33- Solid blue- Marc Veasey (D+23)
• TX-34- Solid blue- Filemon Vela (D+10)
• TX-35- Solid blue- Lloyd Doggett (D+15)
• TX-36- Solid red- Brian Babin (R+26)

OK, so aside from the $1,000 on Christmas she gave you to enjoy, granny gave you another $1,000 to help turn Texas more progressive. What to do? What to do? Glad you asked. I would give $250 to Cristina Ramirez’s Senate campaign, $250 to Mike Siegel’s TX-10 campaign, $100 to Candace Valenzuela, $100 to Jessica Cisneros, and $100 to each of the TX-25 candidates, Heidi Sloan and Julie Oliver and maybe light a candle for Wendy Davis, who is absolutely raking in the money and and doesn’t need yours as much as the other candidates. She’s taken in $939,038 already and is sure to get tons from EMILY’s List and the DCCC. Conveniently, that Turning Texas Blue ActBlue thermometer on the right is nice and handly-- whether you have $1,000 to contribute or just $10.

How The DCCC Guarantees A Red Wave In 2022-- Take Colorado For Example

A pure lesser-of-two-evils race in CO-06

Mike Coffman (R-CO) tries very, very hard to pass himself off as a moderate. It's a farce. Coffman's suburban district wraps around Denver from Littletown and Centennial in the south, Aurora in the east and then Barr Lake and Brighton in the north. The PVI is D+2 and Obama won it both times he ran. Hillary didn't do as well as Obama, but Trump did worse than either McCain or Romney. In the end Hillary beat Trump in the 6th 50.2% to 41.3%-- two flawed candidates who voters didn't like. (Bernie beat Hillary in all three counties that make up the district.) Coffman has survived all the attempts the DCCC has made to dislodge him. This cycle the voters are wise to him and realize he isn't the moderate anti-Trump hero he pretends to be. How independent does this look to you?

Yesterday Alexis Levinson, reporting for BuzzFeed News, warned that Trump could send him crashing down. What she doesn't mention is that Coffman is running against the worst Democrat to ever challenge him-- and, in fact, one of the worst Democrats to be running this cycle. Jason Crow has joined the New Dems, a natural place for him. He's certainly from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party and the DCCC tried hard to pass him off as a lawyer who championed "the people," even though he was actually a lawyer for the pay day lending industry. My guess is that he's going to win and go on to be a truly terrible member of Congress and lose the seat to a Republican in 2022, like so many DCCC recruits this cycle. But in a wave elections, it barely matters how horrible the challenger is; he gets swept into office anyway. People in the 6th district want to vote against Trump and they'll vote against his enabler and rubber-stamp instead.

“The Trump effect is very real,” said Morgan Carroll, the chair the Colorado Democratic Party. Carroll is intimately familiar with the unique difficulties Democrats have faced in ousting Coffman: She was his Democratic opponent in 2016, and he beat her 51% to 43%, even as Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump 50% to 41% in the district.

...[T]ime has demonstrated how little [Coffman] can hold its own against the din of whatever Trump tweeted most recently, or whatever chaos is emerging from the White House and its orbit.

“In a year like this I think you have a lot of independent voters that basically just want to put a check on the president, and they’re going to send that message through those House members,” said former representative Tom Davis, who chaired the House Republican campaign arm.

“I try and tune out the president whenever I can, in terms of his tone and saying things that I think are inappropriate,” Coffman told BuzzFeed News.

“Unfortunately,” he acknowledges, “it takes a lot of oxygen.”

Democrats are hoping to capitalize on that fact. Trump is “certainly a big figure in this race,” Jason Crow, Coffman’s Democratic opponent, told BuzzFeed News in an interview in his campaign office. In 2016, when Coffman spoke directly to the camera in an ad and promised to “stand up” to Trump, a Trump presidency was theoretical. Now, argued Crow, “He’s had two years to fulfill that promise, and he’s broken it." The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has turned that ad into an ad of its own-- splicing Coffman’s words together alongside a calculation from FiveThirtyEight that he voted with Trump 96% of the time. It’s a stat Coffman calls “bogus.”

Coffman is desperate... and lying. His voting record is hard core Trump. Meanwhile Crow says he's "a very different candidate than folks who have run in this race before." That's true; he's barely a Democrat and will undoubtably alienate Democratic voters once he gets into office. "And we’re in a very different world than we certainly have been in prior election cycles." Also true. All the garbage gets swept into Congress... 'til the next midterm. FiveThirtyEight.com gives him an 81.1% chance to win the seat.