Another Sign A Wave Is About To Sweep Away Lots And Lots Of Trumpists-- Newspaper Endorsements

Newspaper editorial endorsements don't move elections-- but they can be a signal that a wave is coming. Yesterday we saw how conservative newspapers in Maine, Texas and Iowa had endorsed progressive Democrats, Jared Golden, Dayna Steele and J.D. Scholten, not despite their progressive policies, but because of them. The Houston Chronicle, in explaining why they had abandoned right-wing incumbent Brian Babin for Dayna, noted that they liked her New Deal appeal and that her main issue "is Medicare-for-all because too many people can’t afford the care they need, especially in the rural stretches and small towns of this district... She also wants a $15 per hour minimum wage, free community college and job training, expanded Internet availability for rural Texas and immigration laws that provide a path to citizenship. 'I believe government’s job is to make people’s lives better. Everything goes back to health care-- you can’t do anything if you’re not healthy,' she told us."

And then came the Orlando Sentinel which endorsed both Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson Thursday. "It's time," they wrote in bold print, "to elect Andrew Gillum, an exciting young candidate poised to disrupt the GOP stranglehold on state policy and become an agent of compromise." Again, the reasons are not in the "despite of his platform" category but because of them.

Gillum, the Democratic mayor of Tallahassee, comes from a modest background. Mom was a bus driver. Dad was a construction worker.

Not surprising, then, that his platform is geared toward the middle class instead of catering to the wealthy. Increasing the minimum wage. Paying teachers a salary that better reflects their contributions to society. Ensuring that people aren’t denied health insurance because they have a pre-existing condition, like cancer.

He wants to expand Medicaid so more people can get access to health care. And he understands that immigrants are important contributors to Florida’s economy, not an invading force.

...The GOP’s “too radical” campaign against Gillum would more accurately apply to his Republican opponent, Ron DeSantis.

The most distinguishable feature of DeSantis’ five years in Congress was his servile devotion to the GOP’s far-right impulses.

He’s a reliable Trump vote, going along with the president 94 percent of the time, according to tracking by the website FiveThirtyEight.com. The website Govtrack.us, lists DeSantis as one of the most partisan members of the Florida delegation, keeping company with the fringy likes of Matt Gaetz.

Florida voters have another reason to vote for Gillum. A recent Florida Supreme Court ruling makes it increasingly likely that the next governor, not current Gov. Rick Scott, will appoint three justices to the court when their terms end. Gillum is the better choice for that task, especially considering he’ll choose from a list of names submitted by a nominating committee packed with conservative Scott appointees.

Given those circumstances, Florida is far more likely to end up with centrist judges under a Gillum administration.

Our state has operated under the GOP’s singular rule long enough. We’ve watched governors and legislators gut environmental and growth-management laws, turn the state into a petri dish for loopy gun laws, ignore the affordable-housing crisis and let the middle class struggle.

Time’s up. We recommend voting for Andrew Gillum, for a change.

There's not much good you can say about sleepy old Senator Bill Nelson in an endorsement. But there's a lot you can say about his crackpot right-wing opponent:

Behold, Floridians! Step right up and see the Sunshine State’s amazing, shape-shifting governor.

One moment Rick Scott is the mortal enemy of environmental regulation. Eight years later, he’s a champion of the environment.

One moment he’s the epitome of fiscal conservatism. Eight years later, the state’s budget is $89 billion, an increase of nearly 30 percent from when he took office.

One moment he’s signing bills making it illegal for pediatricians to ask patients if guns at home were locked safely away. The next he’s signing a sensible gun-safety law he could have backed-- but didn’t-- years before so many kids were massacred in Parkland.

One moment he’s besties with Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, choosing a New York real-estate tycoon over Florida sons-- and better candidates-- Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio. The next he’s edging away from the mercurial president to help his chances at getting elected to the Senate.

This isn’t principle at work; it’s political calculation. Scott did what he needed to do to get elected as a Republican in the 2010 tea party wave. It worked. Now he’s creeping toward the center. Not because he’s a centrist, but because that’s his best bet against incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson.

...No, Nelson doesn’t make headlines. He’s not the go-to senator for the Sunday morning news shows.

Neither is he shady. Nor unethical. Nor opportunistic. Nor tribal.

He’s a decent person who has served Florida and his country well, both in the military and in politics.

Bill Nelson has earned another term in the U.S. Senate.

Much of their endorsement of worthless Blue Dog pile of crap, Stephanie Murphy, wouldn't have to change all that much for it to be a ritual DWT denunciation of her. "[S]he’s the most conservative Democrat in Florida’s congressional delegation... She votes with President Trump 50 percent of the time, demonstrating her capacity for bucking the party when necessary. Only six other Democrats in the House have voted with the president more often." Republicans are worse... right? Right?

Florida's Only Bright Spot In November: Andrew Gillum

NextGen America and For Our Future are two PACs financed by Tom Steyer. They spent $1.4 million dollars in the Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary helping Andrew Gillum overcome huge odds to beat two conservative Democrats, Gwen Graham and Philip Levine. But you ain't seen nothin' yet. Yesterday Steyer told the NY Times that he will spend more money in Florida this fall than in any other state. He's going to put approximately $5.2 million towards Gillum's election, almost $2 million of which towards get-out-the-vote-efforts, which will likely help Democrats up and down the ticket. Steyer specifically mentioned Senator Bill Nelson, an extremely weak incumbent running a miserable campaign against a far worse opponent, Governor Rick Scott, who's running a really dynamic campaign.

Nelson has one chance of being re-elected: the anti-red wave. So far polls have been very, very close, with Nelson winning one day and Scott the next day. Yesterday it was Scott's turn. Quinnipiac polled Florida and Nelson's lead was eye-popping: 53-46%, primarily because women back Nelson 58-41% and because Florida likely voters give Trump a negative 44% to 54% job approval rating. 56% of Florida voters say they want Congress to act as a check on Trump. Scott, of course, is a complete Trump lackey.

It's worth noting that all 7 public polls of the gubernatorial race show Gillum winning. The most recent one, by Ipsos, released September 12, shows Gillum leading DeSantis 50-44% among likely voters and 61-21% among likely independent voters.

Steyer is eager to see his contributions to the Gillum campaign help other Florida Democrats. The tragedy is that there are virtually no Democrats running who are better than just a garden variety Democrat. The candidates considered the most electorally viable are 4 from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party: New Dem Nancy Soderberg (FL-06), New Dem David Shapiro (FL-16), New Dem Lauren Baer (FL-18), New Dem Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26); plus Kristen Carlson (FL-15), Mary Barzee Flores (FL-25) and Donna Shalala (FL-27). [Note: Mary Barzee Flores might turn out to be a good member if she wins.]

Indiana: Lesser Of Two Evils To The Rescue?

Joe Donnelly greets a right-wing rapist Trump wants confirmed

Thus cycle, I have very mixed emotions when it comes to writing about conservative Democrats. I am fully aware about what kind of damage they do to progressivism by relentlessly pulling the Democratic Party towards the right and usually reject less-of-two-evils politics-- the #1 organizing principle of the 21st century Democratic Party. But, this cycle... Trump. If you believe, as I do, that he really is an existential threat to our democracy, our families, our country you've got to be thinking about how to defend against him. One way-- the easiest way-- is through the ballot box. Electing even the worst Democrats-- Blue Dogs and New Dems, the whole corrupt Democrap garbage that makes up the massive and growing Republican wing of the Democratic Party-- is something that has to be seriously considered to stop Trump. Or does someone have a viable post-primary alternative?

Normally I wouldn't be cheering, for example, Tim Kaine's massive lead over neo-fascist Republican Corey Stewart in the Virginia Senate race, nor the fact that Republican Winsome Sears, an ex-Delegate just jumped into the race as a write-in candidate to give more mainstream Republicans an alternative to Stewart. Obviously. Blue America isn't about to add Tim Kaine to our 2018 Senate contributions page, but... I'm glad Kaine's going to win this one without breaking a sweat... and that Trump will probably be spending/wasting time campaigning in Virginia and turning out more Democratic voters there.

And I find myself hoping that Andrew Gillum has strong enough coattails in Florida-- where his gubernatorial campaign against neo-fascist Ron DeSantis is surging-- to pull elderly, bumbling conservative dullard Bill Nelson, who should have retired, over the finish line. Gillum has been leading DeSantis in every poll and in even poll by more than the last one. The new Reuters/Ipsos poll released yesterday shows Gillum leading DeSantis by 6 points (outside of the margin of error), while Nelson lags by one point.

All that leads to the Indiana situation. The Republican, Mike Braun, is a hopeless Trumpist. The Democrat, Joe Donnelly, is not exactly my cup of tea. He's an accidental senator who succeeded with a Hail Mary pass is 2012 when he was going to lose his House seat and decided to make a long-shot run for the Senate instead. Because of events that had virtually nothing to do with him-- the Indiana GOP imploded-- it worked and a House Blue Dog came over and became one of the Senate's most conservative Democrats, not as bad as Heidi Heitkamp or Joe Manchin... but almost. On the other hand, the Democrats can't afford to lose him if they're going to take back control of the Senate in November. The Associated Press did a report on the state of the race in Indiana yesterday, GOP frets about prospects for picking up Indiana Senate seat. It should be relatively easy-- Pence's home state, PVI of R+9 (same as Mississippi and Missouri), Trump beat Hillary 57-38%. But... Donnelly has been out-working Braun and is hardly rolling over and playing dead.

Groups that typically back GOP candidates, such as the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, are sitting on the sidelines. Braun’s recent three-stop “solutions” tour-- spread out across three days-- was ridiculed by Democrats, who pointed to Donnelly’s seven-day, 40-stop trek in August.

And while Braun, a multimillionaire businessman, took out $6.4 million in loans to fund his primary campaign, he also publicly groused about the cost. Now, with less than two months until the election, he has yet to purchase air time for October, while Donnelly has outspent him by almost double on TV and radio since June, records show.

That’s cause for concern, according to a half-dozen GOP officials, operatives and commentators familiar with the race, most of whom spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to offer candid assessments of the contest. They say Braun appears to be coasting at a time when he ought to be investing more of his own money and rallying the base.

Conservative talk radio host Rob Kendall summed up the GOP’s worries by pointing to Braun’s recent appearance with President Donald Trump at a rally in Evansville.

“He’s in front of (thousands of) people at the Ford Center and it sounds like you’re at a funeral,” said Kendall, who is a producer and has a show on Indianapolis-based WIBC radio. “I would have been like James Brown and the Blues Brothers shouting out ‘Do You See the Light’ to the congregation. And this guy, you have to check him for a pulse.”

Republicans have viewed Donnelly’s seat as a prime pickup opportunity in a state Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016. The criticism of Braun’s performance reflects a sudden sense among the GOP that Senate contests in several states Trump carried may be tougher than expected and that control of the Republican-led chamber could be at stake-- a prospect that was unthinkable just a few weeks ago.

...While commuting back-and-forth between Indiana and Washington, Donnelly has held more than 190 campaign events since May-- more than double the number attended by Braun, who resigned from his seat in the Indiana Legislature to focus on campaigning.

Bob Grand, a GOP fundraiser and Indiana powerbroker, said Donnelly has done a “phenomenal job” campaigning, but doubted it will be enough to win in an overwhelmingly Republican state.

“He’s even featuring Donald Trump in his ads. What does that tell you?” Grand said.

Still, groups that have enthusiastically supported GOP nominees in the past are uncharacteristically absent.

In addition to the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, which opted against issuing an endorsement, the U.S. Chamber was mum over whether it will get involved. In 2016, the group spent at least $3.7 million backing GOP Sen. Todd Young in his race against Democrat Evan Bayh, a popular former Indiana governor and senator who previously worked for them.

Americans for Prosperity, the political arm of billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch, interviewed Braun but decided not to directly support him. Two years ago, they launched a door-knocking and phone-bank operation that helped Young win.

On paper, Braun has everything the GOP wants: He built a national auto parts distribution company from the ground up, speaks with a subtle southern Indiana twang and is a virtual outsider to politics, despite his brief stint in the Legislature.

He also has the ability to self-fund.

During the GOP primary, Braun used his wealth, worth somewhere between $37 million and $95 million, to bury U.S. Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer with more than $6.2 million worth of radio and TV spots, Federal Election Commission records show.

But Braun-- whose wife once described him to the Indianapolis Star as the “tightest guy I know”-- said after his May 8 victory that he wasn’t looking to do the same in the general election.

With November looming, his campaign only started to ramp up spending on TV ads this week. Meanwhile, Democratic groups and super PACs are set to spend $22 million, much of it ruthlessly attacking Braun’s business record.

They’ve seized on stories by the AP that revealed his companies racked up safety violations and were sued by employees for unfair treatment, including a worker kicked off health insurance days after he suffered a heart attack.

Democrats also labeled Braun a hypocrite for attacking Donnelly’s family business for outsourcing jobs to Mexico while using Chinese goods for his own brand of auto accessories.

This looks very optimistic. I wonder how Donnelly will vote on Kavanaugh, don't you?

Do The Republicans Have An Ace Up Their Sleeves For November?

Last week, Señor Trumpanzee schlepped his fat ass to upstate New York to campaign for Congresswomen Elise Stefanik (NY-21) and Claudia Tenney (NY-22). Stepfanik didn't want one of his raucus, hate-filled. red-meat rallies so they orchestrated a bill signing ceremony at Fort Drum. Trump managed to make a spectacle of himself anyway, signing the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act without mentioning John McCain's name.

Later he went down to Utica, to hold a high-dough fundraiser at the Doubletree Hotel for Tenney. He called her wing-wing Blue Dog opponent, Anthony Brindisi, "a puppet of Nancy Pelosi" and babbled one of his inauthentic, one-size-fits-all lines about how Tenney won't have a problem beating him. Outside the event there were about 100 racist Trump supporters screaming about illegals. They were out-numbers by protesters. Two days later Inside Elections changed the rating for Tenney from Tilt Republican to Toss Up. Nathan Gonzales also changed ratings for Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Mike Coffman (R-CO), Pete Roskam (R-IL), and John Faso (R-NY). He also changed the ratings for the open CA-49 race (Issa's seat) and for Barbara Comstock's race to Tilt Democratic from Toss Up. In all. he shifted 30 races away from Republicans and towards Democrats. He said the Republicans aren't facing a wave as much as raging fires. "Whether it’s GOP Members in Hillary Clinton districts, extraordinary Democratic challengers and fundraising, competitive open seats, or lazy incumbents," wrote Gonzales, "Republicans have dozens of fires around the country, and the party might not have enough resources to put them all out."

I'm not so sure about that "might not have enough resources to put them all out" resources. Conservative billionaires are ready to spend more money than on any midterm in history. According to a NY Times report yesterday, the GOP tax scam that is so unpopular with ordinary Americans is a big hit with corporations multimillionaires and billionairesand they ponying up, "unlocking tens of millions of dollars in campaign donations from the wealthy conservatives and corporate interests that benefited handsomely from it... Billionaires and corporations that reaped millions of dollars in tax cuts are pumping some of that windfall into the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely aligned with Speaker Paul Ryan that is flooding the airwaves and front porches of swing congressional districts with increasingly sharp attacks on the Democratic candidates vying to wrest control of the House."

Is in enough to thwart the massive anti-red wave that has been forming up ever since Trump started tweeting from the White House? If the polling, special elections and primaries we've seen so far are an indication, it doesn't matter how much the millionaires and billionaires flush down Ryan's toilet to save the compliant Republican majority in the House. At this point, it would be a safe bet to assume the Republicans are going to lose not the 23 seats that will put them in the minority, but as many as 70 seats that will put them in the history books.

Is there anything that could save them? Absolutely-- the same thing that saved Trump in 2016: the Kremlin. Ken Dilanian, reporting for NBC News, noted that Bill Nelson wasn't making things up when he said Russians hacked Florida's election system.. At this point Florida appears to be the most likely state to miss the anti-red wave. That's odd considering the wretched GOP candidates, from Rick Scott to Ron DeSantis-- until you factor in Russian hacking. The GOP enablers of the Russian efforts are losing their shit over Nelson blowing the whistle on Kremlin penetration of the state's voting system-- especially Rick Scott, the most crooked and corrupt governor in America, who "blasted his claim as irresponsible. The top Florida elections official, also a Republican, said he had seen no indication it's true." And the Washington Post, that bastion of Beltway status quo, agreed and "all but accused Nelson-- without evidence-- of making it up."

However, three people familiar with the intelligence tell NBC News that there is a classified basis for Nelson's assertion, which he made at a public event after being given information from the leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee. The extent and seriousness of the threat remains unclear, shrouded for reasons of national security.

The episode illustrates the extent to which secrecy, politics and state-federal rivalries can stand in the way of a unified response to the threat from Russian attacks on a diffuse U.S. election system run by state and local officials. Through a spokesman, Nelson declined to comment.

At a, Aug. 7 campaign event in Florida's capital, Nelson said Intelligence Committee leaders asked that he "let supervisors of elections in Florida know that Russians are inside our records." He added that Russian hackers "have already penetrated certain counties in the state and they now have free rein to move about."

"Either Bill Nelson knows of crucial information the federal government is withholding from Florida election officials, or he is simply making things up," said Scott, who is seeking to take Nelson's Senate seat, which the senator has held since 2001.

But Scott, who as governor has a security clearance, has not actually disputed Nelson's assertion. His spokesman said the governor had not personally called anyone at the Department of Homeland Security to seek a classified briefing to get to the bottom of the matter. The governor's appointee to supervise elections in Florida, Secretary of State Ken Detzner, was reaching out to federal officials for clarity, spokesman McKinley Lewis told NBC News.

Detzner faced criticism this year for delaying an application for federal funds to improve Florida election security, only to be overruled by the governor.

A February report by the left-leaning Center for American Progress gave Florida an "F" grade for election security, one of only five states that received a failing grade. Florida was one of 21 states notified by DHS that it had been targeted by hackers in the 2016 election.

NBC's sources declined to provide the exact details of what Nelson was attempting to describe, because they remain classified. They said Nelson was talking about intelligence related to ongoing repercussions stemming from a 2016 hack of a Florida elections vendor, VR Systems, based in Tallahassee. They said the intelligence had been described to Nelson by Sens. Richard Burr (R-NC), the chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, and Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat.

A Top Secret National Security Agency document leaked last year to The Intercept website said that VR Systems had been penetrated in August 2016 by hackers working for Russian military intelligence, and that the hackers "likely used data obtained from that operation to... launch a voter registration-themed spear-phishing campaign targeting U.S. local government organizations."

The NSA report didn't name the company but it described some of its products, making clear which company was being referenced, the Intercept reported. VR Systems Chief Operating Officer Ben Martin did not respond to a request for comment.

The report described a scheme in which Russian hackers tricked local government voter systems officials into clicking on bogus links that would allow the hackers to access credentials for voting systems.

The report said it was unknown to what extent the campaign had been successful, and what data on "election-related hardware and software applications" may have been obtained.

"The threat from that breach seems to be ongoing," a cybersecurity expert briefed on the matter told NBC News. In addition to Florida, VR Systems has contracts in California, Illinois and Indiana, its website says.

The sources say Nelson was not supposed to speak publicly about the matter, and he erred by suggesting that the information was new. Still, Nelson and Florida's other senator, Republican Marco Rubio, were asked to warn local officials about the ongoing threat to election systems by Russian state-sponsored hackers, two sources told NBC News. Rubio alluded to the matter with county officials in private, according to the Tampa Bay Times, which cited two sources who were in the room.

None of the senators on the intelligence committee would confirm Nelson's assertions. Nor would they deny it.

"While I understand your questions regarding Senator Nelson's recent public comments, I respectfully advise you to continue engaging directly with those federal agencies responsible for notifying you of and mitigating any potential intrusions," Burr said in a letter to Florida's top election official.

The Department of Homeland Security also declined to confirm or deny Nelson's comments.

Sara Sendek, a spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security, said in a statement: "While we are aware of Senator Nelson's recent statements, we have not seen any new compromises by Russian actors of election infrastructure. That said, we don't need to wait for a specific threat to be ready."

Nelson's remarks came after he and Rubio sent a letter to Florida officials urging them to take seriously the threat of Russian election intervention.

"We encourage you in the strongest terms to take advantage" of help from federal officials, the letter said.

Warner said in a statement that "Russian activities continue to pose a threat to the security of our elections, as Senators Nelson and Rubio rightly pointed out in their letter… I hope all state and local elections officials, including Florida's, will take this issue seriously."

Rubio, who serves on the intelligence committee and has frequently expressed concerns about discussing classified information, declined to address Nelson's assertion directly.

"Given the importance of Florida in our national politics, our state's election systems have been and will remain a potentially attractive target for attacks by foreign actors," the Republican senator said in a statement.

Nelson, who had served in the past on the intelligence committee, has been unable to fully respond to the criticism of his comments, presumably because he spoke out of turn about classified information.

When he made the remarks Aug. 7, he was asked, "Do you know which records the Russians are accessing?"

He replied, "That's classified."

Yeah, that's literally the only way the Republicans can save themselves from electoral catastrophe in November. Selling out our democracy-- our country-- to the Russian kleptocrat. Easy enough too see Trump doing that... but Ryan, McConnell... the whole party? Has it gone that far down the road?

Trump's "Red Wave" May Be More Serious Than It Looks

Trump has been talking about a "Red Wave" when it is clear to everyone who followes electoral politics that what has been building is a Blue Wave or, more accurately, an anti-Red Wave. Is it because he's feeble-minded? Or is it because he's been working with Putin on stealing the elections again and wants to get his supporters ready for a counter-narrative? Perhaps neither Trump nor Putin was paying attention to Missouri's ballot initiative Tuesday. Missouri is a red state. The PVI is R+9. Trump beat Hillary statewide 1,594,511 ( 56.77%) to 1,071,068 (38.14%). Of Missouri's 114 counties, Trump won 110. There are only 2 Democrats in the state's 8 person congressional delegation. The state House has 163 members, 47 of whom are Democrats and the state Senate has 34 members, 24 Republicans and 10 Democrats. That's a hopelessly red state. Yet... on Tuesday 67.5% of the voters voted to kill Missouri's so-called right to work law. 32.5% voted for it. That's a 2-1 landslide. As Judd Legum put it in his popular newsletter, "The rejection of Missouri’s 'right to work' legislation, an Orwellian term for a law that kneecaps unions by allowing workers to benefit from a union while opting out of paying dues, exposes a huge cleavage in American politics... This week’s vote was in response to a bill passed by Missouri’s legislature in 2017. It was approved by huge margins-- 100-59 in the Missouri House and 21-12 in the Missouri Senate. It was quickly signed into law by then-Republican Governor Eric Greitens... Missouri’s Republican-dominated legislature pulled out all the stops to try to save the right to work law. In May, they voted to move the date of the vote from November to the August primary. It was viewed as an effort to “give Republican-backed right to work an advantage in a low-turnout primary election. It didn't work."

Perhaps bringing in Russian hackers would have. They're already working on the Claire McCaskill race in the same state. Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Kremlin hackers are working to tamper with the midterms, Republican signaling their acquiescence by refusing to fund efforts to stop them and by Trump firing the White House cyber security director.

The U.S. midterm elections are at increasing risk of interference by foreign adversaries led by Russia, and cybersecurity experts warn the Trump administration isn't adequately defending against the meddling.

At stake is control of Congress. The risks range from social media campaigns intended to fool American voters to sophisticated computer hacking that could change the tabulation of votes.

At least three congressional candidates have already been hit with phishing attacks that strongly resemble Russian sabotage in the 2016 campaign. Among them was Senator Claire McCaskill, a Missouri Democrat in one of the year's most hotly contested races.

Facebook has shut down dozens of accounts and pages to stop what appeared to be a coordinated disinformation campaign.

Three months ahead of the election, President Donald Trump's top national security officials are sounding the alarm. Five of them went to the White House podium last week to warn of interference and outline the government's preparations, even as Trump himself continues to publicly raise doubts about Russia's involvement in the 2016 election that he won. Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence, warned that a major Russian effort to undermine the November election is "only one keyboard click away."

...Malicious hackers have plenty of ways to interfere, said Steve Grobman, chief technology officer of the security software company McAfee Inc. Russian hackers successfully penetrated voter rolls in 2016 in a few states. Security experts fear they may seek to reshape the electorate in 2018 by strategically deleting voter information.

That's part of the Red Wave Trump is encouraging. Thursday morning the Tampa Bay Times reported that Russian hackers have already penetrated Florida voter registration systems.

Russian operatives have "penetrated" some of Florida's voter registration systems ahead of the 2018 midterms, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson said Wednesday, adding new urgency to concerns about hacking.

The state, however, said it has received "zero information" supporting his claim.

"They have already penetrated certain counties in the state and they now have free rein to move about," Nelson told the Tampa Bay Times before a campaign event in Tampa. He said something similar a day earlier in Tallahassee but declined to elaborate.

"That's classified," the Democrat said Tuesday.

He is facing a re-election challenge in November from Gov. Rick Scott, whose administration said it has no knowledge of the allegations made by Nelson.

..."We were requested by the chairman and vice chairman of the Intelligence Committee to let the supervisors of election in Florida know that the Russians are in their records," Nelson told the Times on Wednesday. (audio below) He noted he is a member of the Armed Services subcommittee on cybersecurity.

...A spokeswoman for U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., chairman of the Intelligence Committee, declined to comment. U.S. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., the vice chairman, said in a statement that "Russian activities continue to pose a threat to the security of our elections, as Senators Nelson and Rubio rightly pointed out in their letter. … I hope all state and local elections officials, including Florida's, will take this issue seriously."

The warning comes amid a growing focus on election security ahead of the midterm elections. A July 13 indictment of 12 Russian intelligence officers stated that operatives in November 2016 faked a real election vendor email account to send more than 100 "spearphishing" emails to organizations and personnel involved in administering elections in numerous Florida counties. The email contained malware designed to gain access to computer systems.

Nelson took things farther on Wednesday. His account was partly corroborated by two county officials, who said they heard a similar warning at a private meeting with Rubio in May.

All 67 counties have spent considerable time addressing election security and are in the process of spending federal money to fortify systems, following a 2016 attempt by Russians to hack Florida's elections apparatus.

...Rubio, a member of the Intelligence Committee, has raised alarms himself, and continues to express concern, though not as explicitly. Like Rubio, Nelson outlined a scenario in which hackers could alter voter registration records.

"This is no fooling time and that's why two senators, bipartisan, reached out to the election apparatus of Florida to let them know the Russians are in your records and all they have to do, if those election records are not protected, is to go in and start eliminating registered voters," Nelson said Wednesday.

"You can imagine the chaos that would occur on Election Day when the voters get to the polls and they say, 'I'm sorry Mr. Smith, I'm sorry Mr. Jones, you're not registered.' That's exactly what the Russians want to do. They want to sow chaos in our democratic institutions."

Blue Wave Headed Toward Florida?

The last attempt to fix some of Florida's severe gerrymandering problems created a new district up north, the fifth, that connects most of Tallahassee with most of Jacksonville and goes as far west into the panhandle as Chattahoochee. The PVI is D+12. Hillary eviscerated Trump here, 61.3% to 35.9%, Trump's worst performance in northern Florida. The first congressman elected from the new district was conservative Democrat Al Lawson, former "dean" of the state Senate.

ProgressivePunch, which grades him "F" shows that he, Blue Dogs Stephanie Murphy and Charlie Crist has the worst voting records of any Florida Democrats. A New Dem, he has the 9th worst voting record among House Democrats, made worse by the fact that he represents a deep blue Democratic district.

Normally we would over the moon that anyone as far to the right as Lawson has a primary challenge. Unfortunately his challenger, Alvin Brown, is another conservative Democrat. When Brown was elected mayor of Jacksonville in 2011 he became the first African-American mayor in Jacksonville's history and the first Democrat to be elected to the position since 1991. He was so conserative that many Democrats didn't bother coming out to the polls in 2015 and he was defeated for re-election by Republican Lenny Curry. So... yes, Al Lawson is absolutely terrible. But is it worth replacing him with someone likely to be almost as bad (if not just as bad)? Especially when a new Gravis poll showed much better news coming out of Florida this week.

The much better news is that the progressive running for governor, Andrew Gillum, is now leading in the primary and leading any Republican running for the nomination! Polling was conducted between May 31 and June 15. It found that "Florida voters are to the left of center. Voters oppose a complete abortion ban 53%-29%, a twenty-week ban 42%-39% and support LGBTQ protection from discrimination 55%-22%. They are, however, tightly split over support for sending the National Guard to the U.S.-Mexican border 45%-44%. Uncertainty remains among three issue that will be put before voters in November. Support for the citizen initiative process being the exclusive method for authorizing casinos in Florida is split at 26%-25%. Restoring voting rights for felons sits just over the required 60% threshold at 61%-30%. Finally, voters support an initiative to ban all offshore drilling 52%-29%... Voters have soured on the Republican tax reform law. In March, support was 36%-37% and has now fallen to 38%-47%. Voters indicate that they are less likely to support a candidate that supported the bill by a 42%-36% spread.

At the same time, incongruously, Trump's approval rating has gone up-- from 41%-48% in March to 48%-52% today. "Voters are split over the performance of their other elected officials. Governor Rick Scott is slightly below water at 48%-50% while Rubio is farther in the red at 39%-56%. Voters are mixed on incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson at 47%-44%." And here's where it gets exciting. Gillum, the progressive in the gubernatorial race is now leading his conservative rivals. Blue America has endorsed Andrew and you can contribute to his campaign by clicking on the 2018 gubernatorial thermometer on the right. Gillum is the most viably progressive candidate for governor in Florida’s history. He has plans to make healthcare more affordable through Medicare for All, increase spending on education and workforce training through a corporate tax adjustment and marijuana legalization, and raise the minimum wage in Florida to $15 an hour. He has helped high school students get registered to vote in the aftermath of the Parkland tragedy and, as mayor of Tallahassee, has been sued by the gun lobby twice and won both times.

Voters are beginning to decide on choices for the August Gubernatorial primaries. Undecided levels fell from 60% to 43% on the GOP side and 64% to 27% on the Democratic side. The previous poll showed Philip Levine ahead in the Democratic field 13%-11% for Andrew Gillum and 9% for Gwen Graham. The new poll shows Gillum taking the lead at 29% with Philip Levine falling to third place at 17% and Gwen Graham rebounding to 24% in second place. Gillum appears to have weathered some damaging news cycles and is now leading the pack as voters are possibly responding well to his recent debate performance, though the June 9th debate was towards the end of the field period for this poll.

“Gillum is clearly performing well in the debates and Democratic primary voters are taking notice” said Gravis Marketing Managing Partner Doug Kaplan. “The progressive wing of the party is behind him in this very close race between Gillum, Graham and Levine. Billionaire Jeff Greene is about to shakeup the race with his campaign launch.”

In the Republican field, Adam Putnam has reclaimed the lead over Ron DeSantis 29%-19%. Richard Corcoran (4%) and Bob White (5%) are currently well behind the top-two. Kaplan remarked that “The attacks on DeSantis are obviously working. Opponents have poured in money to convince Republicans that DeSantis is weak on immigration and somewhat liberal.” Kaplan concluded that “We predicted that the attacks on DeSantis were underreported and he was being damaged. One question that is up in the air is whether Trump’s endorsement will be enough to overcome those attacks.”

Moving to the general election, Democrats appear to be gaining ground on retaking the Florida Governor’s Mansion for the first time since Lawton Chiles defeated Jeb Bush in 1994. While Gwen Graham is currently performing the best in general election match-ups, both Gillum and Levine hold leads as well. Graham leads Putnam 45%-39% and DeSantis 44%-34%. Gillum beats out Putnam 42%-39% and 38%-35% over DeSantis. Levine holds leads almost identical to Graham over Putnam 43%-39% and 43%-33% over DeSantis.

The best news for Democrats in this new poll comes from the Senate race where Bill Nelson now holds a 50%-40% lead over Rick Scott. This margin was a narrower 44%-40% in March. Nelson is winning 81%-12% among Democrats and 49%-32% among independents while Scott has winning Republicans 73%-21%. Florida’s Hispanic electorate is less liberal than the nation electorate. Scott leads Nelson 40%-32% among Hispanics despite trailing Nelson 73%-20% with African Americans and 49%-43% among Caucasians. Nelson does best among women (51%-39%), but still holds a lead among men (49%-41%).

Is Florida Salvageable For The Democrats In November-- One Democrat In Particular

Bill Nelson will be 76 in September

There are no guarantees in electoral politics, but right now the smart bet would be that the Democrats win a majority in the House, maybe even substantial majority. The Senate is a lot tougher. Winning back the Senate, means that the Democrats keep all the red state seats that Trump won that they hold and pick up 2 more, bringing their caucus to 51 and redicinging the Republicans' down to 49. Some of the Trump states look pretty safe for the Democratic incumbents: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, perhaps even Indiana and Missouri. Democrats even look competitive in 3 or 4 Republican-held Trump states: Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, possibly Texas. So what's missing from this picture? One purple state with a Democratic incumbent: Florida. Bill Nelson has held the seat for 18 years. Trump didn't wipe out Hillary the way he did in some of these other seats. He only won 4,617,886 (49.0%) to 4,504,975 (47.8%).

Last time Nelson ran (2012) he trounced Republican Connie Mack IV, 4,523,451 (55.2%) to 3,458,267 (42.2%). Nelson out-spent Mack $17,125,413 to $7,508,151. As of March 31 of this year Nelson had already raised $13,466,786 and his presumptive opponent, Governor Rick Scott hadn't started raising yet-- but is wealthy enough for it not to matter. He can self-fund whatever he needs to outspend Nelson.

Yesterday, Marc Caputo took a look at the Florida race for Politico and it didn't look good for the Democrats. Caputo starts with a bad omen: "Rick Scott’s Senate campaign has a Spanish-language web page. Sen. Bill Nelson’s doesn’t. Scott is advertising in Spanish. Nelson isn’t. Scott is learning Spanish and does interviews with Spanish-language media about once a week. Nelson isn’t and doesn’t. For Democrats who recognize protecting Nelson’s seat is essential to their hopes of winning a Senate majority this fall, the veteran senator’s lackluster outreach to one of the fastest-growing voting blocs in the nation’s largest swing state is causing alarm." And Caputo's report gets worse.

The depth of Nelson’s troubles-- and Scott’s advantage-- came into sharp focus last month in four focus groups conducted in Central Florida’s influential Puerto Rican community, where few knew who Nelson was, despite his three Senate terms and holding elected Florida office for 41 years.

“There’s a lot higher awareness of Rick Scott. He’s got much higher name recognition. And people associate him with trying to do something for Puerto Rico,” said Marcos Vilar, director for United for Progress PAC, which had the focus groups conducted for it by the polling firm Latino Decisions.

“Bill Nelson has very little name recognition,” Vilar said. “The people who know him don’t know what he’s done. They don’t know him in the community. They don’t see him out to the community as much.”

Party insiders and Latino activists -- in Washington, Miami, Orlando and Tallahassee-- fret that it’s a serious problem against Scott, who is expected to spend tens of millions of dollars out of his own pocket to knock off Nelson. They say the two-term Republican governor is running a robust campaign that’s “pandering” to Hispanics but drowning out Nelson’s support of issues important to the community-- from his clear support for comprehensive immigration reform to advocacy for Medicaid expansion to criticizing the Trump administration’s underwhelming response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.

“At the end of the day, he can be great on all the issues but if people don’t know that that’s happening, it almost doesn’t matter,” said Mayra Macias, political director for the group Latino Victory and a former political director for the Florida Democratic Party. “There seems to be a disconnect between the outreach to the community and the policy work that he’s doing, the advocacy for our community-- he’s been spot-on on our issues.”

...The panic surrounding Scott’s possible inroads with Hispanic voters-- who account for about 15 percent of the voter rolls-- results from their role as part of the diverse coalition the Democratic Party relies on to win in Florida.

With the notable exception of GOP-voting older Cuban Americans, Hispanics tend to vote Democratic, but their turnout has tended to be abysmal in midterm elections-- which Democrats have consistently lost here. Nelson has been the exception, in part because he has faced historically weak opponents.

Recent polls show Scott leading Nelson largely on the strength of a $12 million ad campaign that’s about to grow to nearly $17 million spent between his campaign and his allies. Nelson, by comparison, was quiet on air until the Senate Majority PAC announced a $2.2 million ad campaign last month. The ad, a Nelson bio, did not have a Spanish-language version.

But all is not lost for Nelson when it comes to Puerto Rican voters, United for Progress PAC’s Vilar said.

In the PAC’s focus groups, one fact sharply turns sentiment against Scott: the governor’s association with President Donald Trump, whose handling of Hurricane Maria has earned him widespread condemnation by Puerto Ricans. The mere mention that Scott raised money for Trump’s election-- and that Trump encouraged Scott to run for Senate-- was a potent message. Vilar said the only subset of Puerto Ricans it didn’t work with were registered Republicans he observed in yet another focus group, in Tampa.

“In Orlando at least, it’s a very effective argument: a vote for Scott is a vote for Trump,” Vilar said. “It’s gold. Everyone in doubt completely flipped. For people leaning for Scott, Trump is toxic.”

...Asked about the differences between the Scott and Nelson campaigns, Roberto R. Tejera, a veteran political commentator and host of The Roberto Rodriguez Tejera Show on Actualidad Radio in Miami, joked: “Who is Bill Nelson?”

Another reporter for a national Spanish-language network couldn’t recall any recent high-profile Latino-focused Nelson events in South Florida either and said that Scott, Sen. Marco Rubio and even New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez are more active in Florida than Nelson in reaching out about Latin American issues of importance to the network’s viewers. “[Scott] also learned Spanish which is pretty amazing,” the reporter, who could not speak on the record under company policy, told Politico in a text message.

Scott, at the event for Colombian-American voters, said Nelson’s outreach was indicative of the Democrat’s campaign more broadly: “I haven’t seen him reach out in the last six years, either. I haven’t seen him around the state.”

Nelson’s campaign disputes that claim and pointed to more than two dozen dates when he met with Hispanic leaders and Puerto Rican officials, activists and evacuees. The list also includes two meetings with Venezuelans in Miami.

Nelson’s predicament doesn’t surprise Democrats familiar with Latino outreach in Senate campaigns and Nelson’s successful 2012 election, when he faced a weak opponent and rode President Obama’s coattails to an easy win while doing relatively little Hispanic-centric campaigning. At the time, some faulted Nelson for not doing enough and since then, they say, neither he nor the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has taken Latino outreach seriously enough. Two operatives said the DSCC has ignored repeated entreaties to fix the situation.

“You do things necessary to mobilize the community and to communicate,” said one Democrat who didn’t want to be identified for fear of political retribution. “And the fact you don’t have that in Florida set up, you don’t have that in DC set up-- it’s baffling. And people are taking notice.”

...Juan Escalante, an undocumented “DREAMer” from Venezuela who grew up in Florida and is now communications director for the immigrant-rights group America’s Voice in Washington, said Latino activists and Democratic insiders worry that the party is in denial about the effectiveness of Scott’s outreach and the relatively low-key campaigning by Nelson.

“When it comes down to it, Scott seems more willing to speak to Latino audiences-- going to where they are and speaking their language and showing a vested interest in what they care about,” said Escalante, criticizing Nelson for not embracing DREAMers and Latinos in the same way that former Nevada Sen. Harry Reid did.

“It’s rather unfortunate that we don’t have the senior senator of Florida embedding himself in that energy,” he said. “We may end up with a Rick Scott as a junior senator and a Marco Rubio as a senior senator. And I don’t want to see that.”

The NRA And Two GOP Governor Scotts-- One In Florida And One in Vermont

Vermont's PVI is D+15 and Hillary beat Trump there 178,573 (55.72%) to 95,369 (30.27%). Trump won just one of Vermont's 14 counties (Essex, the least populated). Florida is a more swingy state, although the PVI is R+2. Although Obama won Florida both times he ran, Hillary gave up on the state's crucial 29 electoral votes. Trump beat her (narrowly)-- 4,617,886 (49.0%) to 4,504,975 (47.8%). Of the state's 67 counties, she won 9.

Both states have Republican governors named Scott-- Phil Scott in Verment, who is running for reelection, and Rick Scott in Florida, who is running for the U.S. Senate. And the NRA has turned against each of them. In 2016 the gubernatorial seat was open in Vermont and the Democrats ran a weak EMILY's List nothing candidate, Sue Minter. Scott, the state's lieutenant governor, beat her 166,817 (52.96%) to 139,253 (44.21%).

Rick Scott, a convicted criminal who was caught stealing from Medicare, beat another weak EMILY's List nothing candidate, Alex Sink, in his first run (2010). He was reelected in 2014 against pointless ex-Republican Charlie Crist. In 2010 he beat Sink 2,619,335 (48.9%) to 2,557,785 (47.7%), largely because she allowed EMILY's List run her campaign). In 2014, Scott beat Crist 2,865,343 (48.1%) to 2,801,198 (47.1%) to 2,865,343 (48.1%).

Today the NRA is angry with both governors. How angry? Last week Phil Scott approved a package of gun-related laws passed by the state legislature and the NRA called on gun owners to abandon him. Dana Loesch, a national spokeswoman for the NRA: "This governor in Vermont completely gave a one-finger salute to the Constitution and to gun owners. He is no friend of firearm owners and I hope that all firearm owners remember this betrayal the next time he’s up for re-election." That's in about half a year.

The NRA gave Scott an A rating during his first gubernatorial campaign in 2016, when Scott said he saw no need for new Vermont gun laws. The governor changed his position in February "after deep reflection" after an alleged school shooting plot came to light in Fair Haven, and on Wednesday he signed three gun-related bills into law.

Loesch described Scott's shift as "an attempt to appease the gun-grabbers in his state."

The NRA spokeswoman seemed particularly bothered by S.221, a bill that won support from even the most ardent gun-rights lawmakers and passed both the Vermont House and the Vermont Senate unanimously.

The new law sets up a court process from removing weapons from people deemed to be at "extreme risk" of violence or suicide. State's attorneys or the Attorney General's Office may petition a family court judge to require a person to relinquish their firearms for up to six months. In emergency situations, these orders may be granted without the person's knowledge, and would expire after 14 days.

... Gun-rights advocates have reacted angrily to Scott's decision to sign the bills, and some jeered and shouted during the bill signing ceremony Wednesday.

"I understand I may lose support over the decision to sign these bills today," Scott said, "but those are consequences I am prepared to live with."

Scott will seek re-election for a second term in November. He is facing a challenge from fellow Republican Keith Stern, who has made gun rights a cornerstone of his campaign.

Rick Scott has an uphill battle to displace Bill Nelson-- especially in a blue wave environment. The last thing he needs is his right flank in tatters. And that's what he's got, with gun nuts stepping up their attacks on him for signing gun control legislation after the school shooting in Parkland. First off, the far right Republican Trumpist campaigning to replace him as governor, Ron DeSantis says he would have vetoed the legislation Scott signed. And the gun group to the right of the NRA, the National Organization for Gun Rights, has already attacked him in an e-mail entitled "Gov. Gun Control Running for Senate," for signing a popular bill putting minor restrictions on the sale of assault-style weapons.

One of the most respected Democratic political operatives in Florida, an old friend, Kevin Cate: "The whole guns and NRA situation is very complicated for Rick Scott. This is a guy who sprinted far to the right, who's BFFs with Donald Trump, he signed a gun bill that did have some more moderate positions in it, so he's got to be sprinting back and forth, back and forth, and someone as robotic as Rick Scott, that's tough for him to do. He's got to sprint back and forth to keep that base happy because if they don't turn out, if these Trump folks don't turn out, he doesn't have a chance."

Meanwhile, reflecting one of those back and forth, the Tampa Bay Times reported late last week that mayors of several cities are suing Scott for sticking with the NRA's agenda.

[St. Petersburg] Mayor Rick Kriseman announced Wednesday that he will join 10 other Florida cities and mayors in a lawsuit against Gov. Rick Scott over the issue of being able to regulate firearms in local jurisdictions.

..."What I see is a collective effort at taking away our home rule authority,'' he said. "I also find it incredibly ironic…the Florida legislature complains about Washington telling them what to do…But they don't seem to have any problem telling us, cities and counties, what to do."

The mayor said he would ban military style weapons, bump stocks, and armor-piercing bullets if he could.

"Governor Scott and legislative leaders decided to overstep their authority and use fear and intimidation as a tactic to preserve the NRA's agenda," Kriseman tweeted before the City Hall announcement.

Alex Leary and Steve Bousquet, writing for the Miami Herald speculate that Scott angering the gun nuts would actually help him in November. Yes, gun nuts are angry. Comments on Scott's campaign Facebook page prove that: "Sorry, Governor Scott. You blew it when you signed the anti-gun legislation into law. Will not be voting for you," one person wrote. Another compared him to Democrat Charlie Crist. A third fumed, "Shouldn’t have gone against Americans with your knee jerk pandering to the gun grabbers." Scott’s embrace of Florida’s first gun restrictions in decades has infuriated the gun lobby and its fiercely loyal lieutenants. What will the NRA do about Scott's A+ rating now? It's a lot more important than their stance on Phil Scott in Vermont.

If Scott escapes attacks after weakening gun rights, other Republicans may feel emboldened in a time of soaring public support for solutions to Parkland and other mass shootings.

“It has always been our practice to hold public officials accountable for their actions that impact law-abiding firearms owners and their Second Amendment rights. Nothing has changed,” said Marion Hammer, the NRA’s Florida lobbyist who, pre-Parkland, had achieved a legendary reputation for her control over the agenda in Tallahassee. 
...“She is very much, 'You’re with us or you die,’ ” said Robert Spitzer, an expert on gun politics and chairman of the political science department at SUNY Cortland in New York. “But Scott’s well positioned. It’s certainly helpful to his campaign because he can say that he’s not completely in the thrall of the NRA.

“It’s a pretty clear message that it’s possible to weave a path that amounts to expressing support for gun rights but also some gun measures, even if they are limited.”

Part of the lesson, Spitzer added, “is that the NRA’s bark is worse than its bite. It’s certainly an influential group. But the idea they can just sort of wiggle their finger and make things happen magically in politics, it really isn’t like that. There are many other candidates who have sided with them then parted ways and lived to tell the story.”

Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Pat Toomey was an A+ rated NRA darling during his 2010 campaign, the group spending $1.5 million to help him get elected. But a few years later, after the Sandy Hook tragedy, he sponsored bipartisan legislation to expand background checks. It did not pass and the NRA turned on Toomey, but he still won re-election in 2016.

“You can do the right thing and you’ll be fine,” Toomey said in an interview about the climate Scott now faces. “In his state, like mine, a majority of voters feel very strongly about the Second Amendment, as do I, and these folks voted for me. I commend him for being willing to stand up.”

Despite all the social media noise, the legislation just might help the Republican governor win a seat in the Senate.


The law Scott signed last month raised the age to buy a gun in Florida from 18 to 21 with a three-day waiting period. The NRA filed suit immediately. In public comments, Hammer included Scott among “turncoat Republicans” who “caved to bullying and coercion” by passing the changes in response to the shooting at a high school in Parkland that killed 17 people on Feb. 14.

Four years ago, Hammer praised Scott for his “historic” signing of five pro-gun bills.

Florida has long been at the vanguard of NRA-backed policies, including the controversial “stand your ground” law. But the national movement spurred by Parkland, with massive rallies in Washington and cities coast to coast, led to action from state and local governments and companies such as Dick’s Sporting Goods to end some gun sales.

It came just as Scott was preparing to run against Nelson, and Scott’s critics say his change of heart is all about politics. Scott showed no such initiative after the 2016 mass shooting at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando or an attack early last year at the Fort Lauderdale airport.

“The fact that Rick Scott in this politically craven way sees opportunity in accommodation with our side is an indication of the weakness of the NRA,” said Peter Ambler, executive director of a gun safety group started by former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords. “But elections are about choices. Bill Nelson has had the courage throughout his tenure to do the right thing, to vote for gun safety, while Rick Scott was doing the exact opposite, while he was embracing the NRA.”


Nelson, who likes to tell audiences he’s been a lifelong hunter, charges that Scott “will say and do anything to try and get elected. He highlights an NRA-backed provision of the new law that calls for arming school personnel, though it would not apply to many teachers and school districts have largely said they would not participate in the optional program. (Scott opposed arming teachers but said he had to compromise.)

On raising the purchase age and adding the three-day waiting period, the Democrat said they were “steps in the right direction” but stressed that stricter measures are needed, including universal background checks and limiting large-capacity magazine clips. Nelson also wants to ban assault-style weapons.

For Scott, being under attack from the NRA could attract votes from independents and moderate voters who are more inclined to favor gun restrictions. Scott also has the support of some families of the victims of the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, who stood with him at his Capitol office in Tallahassee on March 23 as he signed the legislation. (Others, particularly Douglas students, say the legislation fell well short.)

Scott can avoid the weight of the NRA because he doesn’t face a serious primary challenger, will have no trouble raising money and is not likely to face an exodus of Republican voters over the gun issue.


... [The NRA] is unlikely to mount a full-throated attack on Scott, though it could withhold formal support. A membership drive mailer that reached homes across the state last week mentioned “anti-gun politicians” but did not say anything specific about Florida.

The showdown with Nelson is expected to be wildly expensive and extremely close. Scott won two races for governor by about 1 percentage point in Republican wave elections against underfunded Democratic opponents.

Four years ago, against Charlie Crist, Scott won 54 of 67 counties. Some of Scott’s most lopsided victory margins were in counties such as Bay, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa in the Florida Panhandle. Even there, in the most conservative region of the state, where opposition to gun restrictions could be strongest, Scott is unlikely to face a political backlash.

Rep. Brad Drake, a Walton County Republican and an A+ NRA-rated lawmaker who voted against the gun bill, said: “I’m going to strongly support Rick Scott. I agree with him on almost every issue. Once in a while we disagree, but it’s never personal. He’s very conscientious.”

Sen. Dennis Baxley, R-Ocala, one of the NRA’s strongest allies in the Legislature, also voted against the gun bill, but said he has no quarrel with Scott.


“I view people based on their overall competence and effectiveness, and he’s A+ in my book. You’re never going to agree 100 percent of the time,” said Baxley, who represents The Villages, home to a vital bloc of Republican voters in statewide elections.

“It may give pause to some people who view the Second Amendment as a litmus test,” Baxley said. “But compared to the record of Sen. Nelson on the issue, the contrast is huge.”


Scott joins a host of other politicians who are finding daylight with the hard line of the NRA-- out west, in states such as Montana, some Democrats are shifting as well-- and it comes as Republicans face a tough midterm election climate.

Dan Eberhart, an energy executive and major conservative donor, recently held up Scott as an example of candidates needing to appeal to suburban voters and doing so by standing up to the NRA.

“Republicans are going to have to move a little to get 51 percent-plus in elections, and the NRA will have to deal with it,” Eberhart told the New York Times. “The NRA is really out of step with suburban GOP voters.”

Scott hasn’t brought up guns on the campaign trail but Nelson will make it an issue, as will a flood of outside groups trying to paint Scott as an opportunist.