Maybe It Really Is Time For the South To Rise Again-- But Without The Built-In Racism This Time

On Friday the House voted, 232-180 to admit Washington, DC-- which has more people than Wyoming and Vermont-- as a state. Every Republican-- ironically, the party of unadulterated and unashamed racism-- voted no, as did the most Republican of the House Dems, Minnesota Blue Dog Collin Peterson. There were 8 other Democrats who wanted top vote NO-- and in fact did vote with the GOP on their motion to recommit, but who felt their best strategy was to have it both ways, voting with the GOP on the motion and with the Democrats on the bill:

• Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY)
• Angie Craig (New Dem-MN)
• Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC)
• Jared Golden (careerist-ME)
• Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK)
• Conor Lamb (careerist-PA)
• Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT)
• Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN)
• Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog-NM)

McConnell already declared it DOA as far as the Senate is concerned, somehow deciding statehood for Washington is-- wait for it-- "socialist." So his virulent and disgusting racism had nothing to do with it at all. And if McConnell were to be hit by a car tonight and whisked off to his place in Satan's bed, Trump has already said he would veto it, although didn't mention he's the most racist president to ever occupy the White House. The District, by the way, is 49% African-American so, the thinking goes among racists like McConnell and Trump and, generally all the Republicans in Congress... why give them a House seat and two Senate seats?

So I asked myself why is there still so much racism in our country. Why is it still a thing? Inequality politically and economically are bad enough but what about in our hearts? Why?

Stuart Stevens, a Mississippi Republican had something to say about that yesterday at The Bulwark-- at least for part of the problem: My Confederate Past. Before we get to Stevens' reflections, a little news (beyond Faith Hill's call for Mississippi to get a new Confederate-free state flag): there's plan to do just that and that started today, a flag that was adopted in 1894 at the height of the white backlash to Reconstruction.

As of Friday at noon, the plan-- which several sources reiterated was “extremely fluid”-- is for the House of Representatives to begin the legislative process to remove or replace the flag on Saturday morning.

A resolution will be filed that would suspend the rules so that legislators could take up a bill to address the flag. This resolution is expected to be the most difficult part of the process because it requires approval of a two-thirds majority in each chamber (82 of 122 House members, 35 of 52 Senate members). And the resolution must be passed by both chambers before either chamber could actually begin the process of debating the actual bill. [It did pass the House today-- 85 to 35-- and Gov. Reeves announced he will sign the final bill into law if it passes the state Senate too.] UPDATE: Last in the day, the Senate passed it too!

If the two-thirds threshold to suspend the rules is met, a simple majority would be required to pass the actual bill (62 of 122 House members, 27 of 52 Senate members).

Sources close to House leadership say they have-- for now-- the two-thirds majority votes to suspend rules, but they stress the margin is very thin.

On the Senate side, reports are that the leadership is “close”-- within one or two votes-- to having a two-thirds vote to suspend rules. Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann said the plan is for the House to move first.

...Many Republican lawmakers have for years opposed changing the flag, particularly without a popular vote on the issue. Some who want the Legislature to change it fear a backlash from constituents.

And  Republican Gov. Tate Reeves-- the de facto head of the state GOP-- opposes the Legislature changing the flag.

But that sentiment appears to be changing among some lawmakers.

Rep. Karl Oliver, R-Winona, in a 2017 social media post said that those who support the removal of Confederate monuments should be “lynched.” In recent weeks, he declined to comment on the flag issue.

But on Thursday, Oliver issued a statement that said: “I am choosing to attempt to unite our state and ask each of you to join me in supporting a flag that creates unity-- now is the time.” Oliver’s statement said the flag issue is growing “more divisive by the day” and “History will record the position I chose.”

A growing list of businesses, cities, counties and other groups have either stopped flying the flag or asked leaders to change it. Religious leaders have spoken out, saying changing the flag is a “moral issue.”  The NCAA, SEC, and Conference USA this month took action to ban post-season play in the state until the flag is changed.

"It’s difficult to explain to a non-Southerner," wrote Stevens, "the role the Confederate flag has played in our lives. I suspect that’s more so for a Mississippian than for someone from any other state as Mississippi is the most Southern of the states. Put it this way: If you have connections to the University of Mississippi-- the most Southern school in the most Southern state-- then your connection to the Confederate flag is what the shamrock is to Notre Dame. I was born in the 1950s to parents who met at Ole Miss. The role Ole Miss football played in my life was basically what the Catholic Church is to the Jesuits. It was both a belief system and the organizing principle of life. Saturdays in the fall were the Holy Days when the Faithful would gather and reinforce our devotion through the shared communion of ritual."

These were not football games but celebrations of the Lost Cause of the Confederacy. Only this time our 11 soldiers on the field of battle more often than not emerged victorious. At halftime the band marched in Confederate battle gray uniforms while Colonel Reb led the cheerleaders in unfolding what was billed as the world’s largest Confederate flag. (Even as a 10-year-old I remember wondering, “How big was the second-largest flag?”) Cheerleaders threw bundles of Confederate flags into the stands. We stood and swayed together singing Dixie, always ending in the stadium-shaking cry, “The South Shall Rise Again.”

It was at halftime in the 1962 Ole Miss-Kentucky game at Jackson’s Memorial Stadium-- walking distance from my home-- that Governor Ross Barnett gave his famous speech calling for states’ rights. We beat Kentucky that afternoon and the next day in Oxford there began the last pitched battle of the Civil War. It took 30,000 troops to force the University of Mississippi to accept a single black student.

Today you’re more likely to get a student riot if a top-ranked black athlete committed to Ole Miss and then switched at the last minute to Alabama.

...Mississippi has the highest percentage of African Americans of any state in the country. I ask myself now why did it take so long for me to realize what it might be like for nearly 40 percent of my state to go to school and work under a flag that represented a cause dedicated to the right to own their ancestors? Why is it that I had written books about traveling through China, Africa, and Europe, fascinated by every cultural quirk I came across, before I looked up at my own state flag and thought about the dehumanizing brutality it represented?

I don’t have any good answers, most likely because there are none. I was given every opportunity in this life, an open door to the world, a chance at the best education in the United States and England, a family that supported my odd passions that I was lucky enough to turn into professions. I had passport stamps from 61 countries with different flags before I began to think about my own state’s flag. It wasn’t that I was actively for the flag . . . but that indifference was just as toxic as active support.

Today many white Mississippians of my generation-- and even more of the younger generation-- are eager to change. Faulkner wrote, “The past is never dead. It’s not even past.” We can’t undo what we didn’t do.

But my regret is mixed with a hope. Hope that perhaps we can take steps-- small and inadequate as they might be-- to face the truth of our Confederate past. And in doing so change the future.

It will never be enough. But I hope today we can take one more step out of the shadows of a bloody past into the brighter sun of a better day.

This morning, the NY Times released a poll by Siena that showed how out of touch Trump-- who reflexively and unceasingly stokes The Lost Cause and American divisiveness over race-- is on sentiments about race seem to be heading. 59% of voters, including 52% of white voters, believe the death of George Floyd at the hands of the police in Minneapolis was "part of a broader pattern of excessive police violence toward African Americans. Black Lives Matter is seen as favorably as the police as an institution is (44% for BLM, 43% for the police). "The numbers add to the mounting evidence that recent protests have significantly shifted public opinion on race, creating potential political allies for a movement that was, within the past decade, dismissed as fringe and divisive. It also highlights how President Trump is increasingly out of touch with a country he is seeking to lead for a second term: While he has shown little sympathy for the protesters and their fight for racial justice, and has continued to use racist language that many have denounced, voters feel favorably toward the protests and their cause."

Remember, There Are Innocent People In Red States Who Do NOT Deserve To Die

The extreme-right moron governors of Georgia and Florida finally-- way too late to save their citizens-- ordered statewide lockdowns Wednesday. Last time I looked there were still a dozen states where governors have refused to order lockdowns-- all red Trump states led by extremely cowardly politicians:

• Alabama-- Kay Ivey (R)
• Arkansas-- Asa Hutchinson (R)
• Iowa-- Kim Reynolds (R)
• Missouri-- Mike Parson (R)
• Nebraska-- Pete Ricketts (R)
• North Dakota-- Doug Burgum (R)
• Oklahoma-- Kevin Stitt (R)
• South Carolina-- Henry McMaster (R)
• South Dakota-- Kristi Noem (R)
• Texas-- Greg Abbott (R)
• Utah-- Gary Herbert (R)
• Wyoming-- Mark Gordon (R)

The U.S. can't start counting the 8 weeks it takes to flatten the curve until all these dozen states are also in lockdown. These right-wing baboons are threatening all of our lives. Before you start wishing that all their citizens die, please remember that though they all voted for Trump and all still support Trump, there are several million people in these dozen states who voted against Trump. They don't deserve to die. Is there enough lamb's blood to save them all when the Angel of Death comes for a visit? Hillary voters by state:

• Alabama-- 729,547 (34.36%)
• Arkansas-- 380,494 (33.65%)
• Iowa-- 653,669 (41.74%)
• Missouri-- 1,071,068 (38.14%)
• Nebraska-- 284,494 (33.70%)
• North Dakota-- 93,758 (27.23%)
• Oklahoma-- 420,375 (28.93%)
• South Carolina-- 855,373 (40.67%)
• South Dakota-- 117,458 (31.74%)
• Texas-- 3,877,868 (43.24%)
• Utah-- 310,676 (27.46%) + 243,690 (21.54%) for Evan McMullin)
• Wyoming-- 55,973 (21.63%)

The April Fool's Day issue of Politico magazine ranked the best and worst governors based on their pandemic leadership roles. I agree that both the best and worst were both Republicans--Ohio's Mike DeWine as most courageous and Trump Florida ass-licker Ron DeSantis as the one most deserving a prison sentence. Bill Scher wrote that with Señor Trumpanzee "unable or unwilling to play the part of a national unifier or to take decisive action to curb the spread of the coronavirus, the leadership we normally expect from the Oval Office has instead come from state executives throughout the nation-- or not." He framed the question he set out the answer: "Which governors have done a better job at meeting the moment, by acting decisively and boosting morale? And which have missed the moment, dragged their feet and succumbed to petty squabbling?" And, unlike any of the TV talking heads, he nailed it on TV-actor-playing-a hero Andrew Cuomo:

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has received the lion’s share of attention, as his informative and emotive press conferences have made him an overnight national political star, albeit halfway through his third term. But his record in responding to the crisis is more complicated than the sheen lets on: his coronavirus containment policies were not the most aggressive in the country, and did not prevent catastrophe. He hesitated to close all schools statewide even as other states began to do so, and resisted a statewide stay-at-home order for a few days before relenting.

Here's his list of the best. He's wrong about Newsom, who also dragged his feet except in the superficial areas Cuomo also looked good in. The 6 Bay Area counties did great while Newsom and Garcetti hid under their beds shivering that if they made the wrong move, they'd never be a presidential contenders. From most best to less best:

• Mike DeWine (R-OH)- "[N]o single governor has done more to put the nation on a war footing in the fight against coronavirus than DeWine, whose actions have contributed to Ohio’s relatively modest number of cases... On March 12, even though Ohio had yet to suffer a major outbreak of Covid-19, DeWine called for the statewide closure of public schools-- the first governor in the nation to do so, forcing most of his fellow governors to recognize they had to follow suit, and fast.
• Gavin Newsom (D-CA)
• Jay Inslee (D-WA)
• Larry Hogan (R-MD)- another mistake by Scher-- he was needlessly slow and doesn't deserve to be on this list.
• Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)
• Wanda Vazquez (NPP-Puerto Rico)

And now the half dozen worst, although Scher left off some real doozies-- like for example, illegitimate Georgia Republican Brian Kemp who claimed stupidity for his weeks of inaction. "[H]e reversed course Wednesday as a growing number of other Republican governors, including the leaders of Florida, South Carolina and Texas, instituted broader limits on mobility and shuttered more businesses to try to counter the disease. He said his decision was triggered by "game-changing” new projections on the disease’s spread in Georgia. He also said he was informed of new data that this virus 'is now transmitting before people see signs. Those individuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt' symptoms, he said. 'We didn’t know that until the last 24 hours.'" Maybe he didn't, but everyone else on planet earth did. So here's Scher's list from worst to not as terrible:

• Ron DeSantis (R-FL)- "DeSantis is one of Trump’s favorite governors and a potential 2024 presidential prospect. But he has made a bad first impression on the rest of the country by failing to fully shut down Florida’s beaches before or after they were overrun with partiers on spring break, many of whom then traveled home to locations throughout the United States. He also resisted making a statewide stay-at-home order until finally relenting on Wednesday-- in the wake of intense pressure from Florida Democrats, and televised comments Wednesday morning by the surgeon general urging all governors to get their residents to stay at home. Before that point, his seemingly toughest measure was issuing a quarantine for travelers coming from the New York City tri-state area or Louisiana, but the focus on hot spots ignores all the community spread inside Florida and in other states. Florida already has nearly 7,000 confirmed cases, ranking it 17th among the states on a per capita basis. Earlier, DeSantis justified eschewing broader measures. 'We’re also in a situation where we have counties who have no community spread,' he said on March 19. 'We have some counties that don’t have a single positive test yet.' But everything we have experienced strongly suggests you don't want to wait until you have community spread before taking strong action. DeSantis may still be helped by Trump, who may be giving Florida preferential treatment. According to the Washington Post, other governors have had difficulty getting supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile, but not DeSantis. And Trump has been influenced by DeSantis’ argument that some social distancing measures are too harmful to the economy. The Post quoted an anonymous White House official, who explained, 'The president knows Florida is so important for his reelection, so when DeSantis says that, it means a lot. He pays close attention to what Florida wants.'" I would just like to add that DeSantis is still working actively to kill Florida seniors. He is absolutely the worst governor in America.

• Tate Reeves (R-MS)- "Aside from its next-door neighbor Louisiana, Mississippi is the Southern state with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases on a per capita basis. Yet Reeves has made a hash out of the response. As Mississippi’s localities began issuing stay-at-home edicts, Reeves issued his own order on March 24, broadly defining what business and social activity is 'essential'-- including religious services-- and declared any order from any other 'governing body' which conflicts with the state order to be 'suspended and unenforceable.'"





• Kevin Stitt (R-OK)- "On March 14, Stitt tweeted a picture of his family eating at a restaurant, as if he deserved an award for defying the coronavirus panic. 'It’s packed tonight!' he enthusiastically shared, but facing blowback, later deleted the post... Oklahoma’s rate of infection is intensifying, and testing is minimal. Stitt is not the only governor who has hesitated to implement stiff restrictions, but he may become a case study of the pitfalls of glib social media use in a time of crisis."

• David Ige (D-HI)- "Ige tapped his Lieutenant Governor Josh Green to play a key role in the state’s response to coronavirus. Green is an emergency room doctor, so his calls for strict travel restrictions and quarantines on arrivals carried great weight. But once Green publicly pushed for strong measures, Ige cut him out of the loop, instructing Cabinet officials not to consult with Green, and keeping Green out of his press conferences."

• Kay Ivey (R-AL)- "Ivey sounded a completely different note at a press conference, when she dismissed the idea of a statewide stay-at-home order. 'Y’all, we are not Louisiana, we are not New York state, we are not California,' she said. (Washington Post data journalist Philip Bump warned Ivey that Alabama’s caseload was growing faster than California’s.)"

• Jim Justice (R-WV)- "His lack of experience in crisis management has been glaringly obvious from his discordant statements and actions. On March 16, he was preaching defiance. 'For crying out loud, go to the grocery stores,' Jutice said. 'If you want to go to Bob Evans and eat, go to Bob Evans and eat.' Then, the very next day, he shut down dine-in eating at the state’s restaurants."

Yesterday a 7-person team of NY Times reporters filed a report on the geography of the pandemic response in America. The maps showing citizens ignoring social distancing look eerily-- or predictably-- like the maps of the counties where Trump won in 2016. "Stay-at-home orders," they wrote, "have nearly halted travel for most Americans, but people in Florida, the Southeast and other places that waited to enact such orders have continued to travel widely, potentially exposing more people as the coronavirus outbreak accelerates." Most Americans "in wide swaths of the West, Northeast and Midwest have complied with orders from state and local officials to stay home. Disease experts who reviewed the results say those reductions in travel-- to less than a mile a day, on average, from about five miles-- may be enough to sharply curb the spread of the coronavirus in those regions, at least for now... In areas where public officials have resisted or delayed stay-at-home orders, people changed their habits far less. Though travel distances in those places have fallen drastically, last week they were still typically more than three times those in areas that had imposed lockdown orders, the analysis shows." They offered a list of big population counties across the country where people are spreading COVID-19 willy-nilly. I added the 2016 election results. From worst to less horrible:

• Greenville County, South Carolina- Trump 59.4% to Hillary 34.7%
• Jefferson County, Alabama- Hillary 52.2% to Trump 45.0%
• Duval County, Florida- Trump 49.0% to Hillary 47.5%
• Guilford County, North Carolina- Hillary 58.7% to Trump 38.7%
• Montgomery County, Texas- Trump 74.0% to Hillary 22.5%
• Polk County, Florida- Trump 55.4% to Hillary 41.3%
• Tulsa County, Oklahoma- Trump 58.4% to Hillary 35.6%
• Volusia County, Florida- Trump 54.8% to Hillary 41.8%
• Oklahoma County, Oklahoma- Trump 51.7% to Hillary 41.2%
• Sedgwick County, Kansas- Trump 56.1% to Hillary 36.9%
• Gwinnett County, Georgia- Hillary 51.0% to Trump 45.2%
• Shelby County, Tennessee- Hillary 62.3% to Trump 34.6%
• Brevard County, Florida- Trump 57.8% to Hillary 38.0%
• Salt Lake County, Utah- Hillary 42.8% to Trump 32.6%
• Fresno County, California- Hillary 49.4% to Trump 45.5%
• Utah County, Utah- Trump 51.3% to Hillary 14.0%
• Pasco County, Florida- Trump 58.9% to Hillary 37.4%
• San Bernardino County, California- Hillary 52.2% to Trump 42.4%
• Douglas County, Nebraska- Hillary 47.9% to Trump 46.5%
• Hillsborough County, Florida- Hillary 51.5% to Trump 44.7%

Dr. Fauci has recommended that all 50 states do mandatory lockdowns-- something Trump and his goonish governors don't accept. Last night Trump lied again, this time that airplane and train passengers are being given "very strong tests" for coronavirus both before departure and after arrival. "They’re doing tests on airlines-- very strong tests-- for getting on, getting off. They’re doing tests on trains-- getting on, getting off." He's just flat-out lying-- and endangering the general public.

Fetch The Smelling Salts-- There Is Still Racism In Mississippi Politics

Minnesota and Mississippi each has two Senate elections in November. In Mississippi, Senator Roger Wicker is up for reelection. In June he easily put away a Trumpist primary challenger Richard Boyanton 83-17%. The primary drew 157,170 voters, compared to just 87,931 in the Democratic primary, which resulted in a runoff between Howard Sherman (31.79%) and David Baria (30.98%)-- 713 votes separating them. In the runoff the following month Baria beat Sherman 58.6% to 41.4%. Baria will face Wicker in November.

Wicker, something of a mainstream conservative, was lucky. Very well-known neo-fascist Chris McDaniel had jumped into the primary against him early but switched races when Thad Cochran announced he would resign. Governor Bryant appointed state Agriculture Secretary Cindy Hyde-Smith, another mainstream conservative, who McDaniel saw as a much easier target (even though someone, presumably McConnell, persuaded Trump to endorse Hyde-Smith). That election, also on November 6, will be a non-partisan jungle primary with Hyde-Smith and McDaniel running as well as Democrat Mike Espy, a former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, and some guy named Tobey Bartlee.

OK, let me explain how this one works-- no party primaries and no party labels on ballot. To win 50% is needed-- which isn't going to happen, mandating a November 27 runoff. The winner serves the remainder of Cochran's term, which means they'll be running in 2020. Imagine in we wake up November 7 and control of the U.S. Senate will be determined by the November 27 runoff, presumably between Hyde-Smith and Espy!

I'm sure you know Mississippi is a very red state-- PVI is R+9, so not as red as, for example, Kansas, Kentucky, West Virginia and Louisiana, all of which something do elected Democrats. In 2016 Trump beat Hillary 700,714 (57.9%) to 485,131 (40.1%). The last time Mississippi went for a Democratic presidential candidate was when Jimmy Carter ran in 1976.

As of the June 30 FEC reporting deadline McDaniel had raised $3,516,916, Hyde-Smith $1,653,930 and Espy $408,236. The U.S. Chamber off Commerce had already spent $2,100,000 bolstering Hyde-Smith and battering McDaniel. A Mason-Dixon poll released April 10, shows that Hyde-Smith would beat Espy 46% to 34% but that Espy would beat McDaniel 42% to 40%. That may or may not be predictive of what could actually happen on November 27 with control of the Senate hanging in the balance, but for Espy to have have any real shot at this, McDaniel has to beat Hyde-Smith. That doesn't look likely, but he's definitely appealing to the absolutely worst instincts of the Mississippi far far far right... which is pretty powerful in that state. So how does that appeal manifest itself? Let me count the ways; no let me show one example from Friday when McDaniel was taping a segment for Morning Joe. Watch:



He defends his anti-hip hop statement (by blaming UC Berkeley) and defends his support for the Confederate flag (by blaming democracy) but when panelist Eddie Glaude pushes him on how he's going to convince the 38% of Mississippi voters-- African-Americans-- that he doesn't pose a danger to them. Notice that his blatantly racist response drew immediate and sustained booing from the live audience. Now why would anyone boo this?

"I’m going to ask them, after 100 years of relying on big government to save you, where are you today? After 100 years of begging for federal government scraps, where are you today?"

Remember, that was specifically a question about black Mississippi voters. I wonder what he would say about these white Mississippi voters, McDaniels' base. Listen to the questions and answers carefully, especially when they get to the guy with the dental problems... I'm talking about the state of Mississippi. We’ve been dead last for 100 years. And what happens is, if we keep dependent on that economic model, we’re always going to stay last."



In August, McDaniel tweeted to his followers that "In light of all the political correctness and leftist hysteria, I'm curious about what you think: How should Robert E. Lee be remembered? McDaniel has less than 13,000 twitter followers but his question generated nearly 140,000 votes-- probably not the ones he was expecting or hoping for:

UPDATE: Intruder In The Dust (1949)

Keep in mind, this was filmed in Faulkner's hometown, Oxford, Mississippi. Skip turned me onto it and explained why it's so hard to find: "Perhaps that's because in the film the N-word is frequently delivered with all the dehumanizing nastiness the term was created for. I recently saw a DVD in a DC library and checked it out. The film is a stunner. It’s a great time-capsule of life then."

Would Trump's Fan Boys Accept A Sultanate Without A Throne?

You know what's not really funny? It's not really funny that the low IQ/prescription drug-addled Trump supporters use Kellyanne Con-man's fictional Bowling Green Massacre-- a typical Trumpist #alt-fact-- to justify their belief that Trump should seize dictatorial powers. Yes,most Trump fans-- not all, just most, including every single one I've ever met-- are morons. That they have the right to vote is as horrifying as the German voters in 1933 who made the Nazi Party the biggest party in Germany. Same people-- completely and utterly the same people. You want to see a Nazi moron? Go talk to a Trump supporter. You probably watched this Alexandra Pelosi video before. Watch it again... these idiots have put our country in very great danger:



For whatever reason-- whether the abuse of heavy debilitating drugs or just innate-- or cultivated-- stupidity or Hate Talk Radio/Fox News brainwashing-- the Trump supporters can't seem to distinguish from fake news and reality. Nor do they want to. That's how Trump won and that's how Trump maintains even his puny 43% approval rating. Yes, Trump is already the most detested president in American history, but he does have his supporters. (And nothing's going to change their minds-- short of, perhaps, detox regiments and starting overrun the 3rd grade. Just look at that video again.)

When I warn people that Trump is another Hitler or Mussoliini or perhaps another Putin, I always get pushback reminding me that Trump is more like Turkish would-be dictator Recep Tayyip Erdoğan than like these more classic examples of modern day tyrants. And we've compared Trump and Erdoğan even before Putin managed to install Trump in the White House. Friday, the BBC predicts that after the April 16 referendum in Turkey, Erdoğan will no longer be a would-be dictator, but a bona fide dictator.

On the surface, it might seem a proposal that would enjoy cross-party consensus: modernising Turkey's constitution that was drawn up at the behest of the once-omnipotent military after the coup of 1980.

But instead it's arguably the most controversial political change in a generation, becoming in effect a referendum on the country's powerful but divisive President Erdogan.

The plan would turn Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential republic, more akin to the United States. Among the numerous changes:

• The role of prime minister would be scrapped. The new post of vice president, possibly two or three, would be created.
• The president would become the head of the executive, as well as the head of state, and retain ties to a political party.
• He or she would be given sweeping new powers to appoint ministers, prepare the budget, choose the majority of senior judges and enact certain laws by decree.
• The president alone would be able to announce a state of emergency and dismiss parliament.
• Parliament would lose its right to scrutinise ministers or propose an enquiry. However, it would be able to begin impeachment proceedings or investigate the president with a majority vote by MPs. Putting the president on trial would require a two-thirds majority.
• The number of MPs would increase from 550 to 600.
• Presidential and parliamentary elections would be held on the same day every five years. The president would be limited to two terms.

The government-- and, principally, President Erdogan-- argue that the reforms would streamline decision-making and avoid the unwieldy parliamentary coalitions that have hamstrung Turkey in the past.

Since the president is no longer chosen by parliament but now elected directly by the people, goes the argument, he or she should not have to contend with another elected leader (the prime minister) to enact laws.

The current system is, they say, holding back Turkey's progress. They even argue that the change could somehow end the extremist attacks that have killed more than 500 people in the past 18 months.

A presidential system is all very well in a country with proper checks and balances like the United States, retort critics, where an independent judiciary has shown itself willing to stand up to Donald Trump and a rigorous free press calls him out on contentious policies.

But in Turkey, where judicial independence has plummeted and which now ranks 151 of 180 countries in the press freedom index of the watchdog Reporters Without Borders, an all-powerful president would spell the death knell of democracy, they say.

Mr Erdogan's opponents already decry his slide to authoritarianism, presiding over the world's biggest jailer of journalists and a country where some 140,000 people have been arrested, dismissed or suspended since the failed coup last year. Granting him virtually unfettered powers, says the main opposition CHP, would "entrench dictatorship."

"The jury is out," says Ahmet Kasim Han, a political scientist from Kadir Has University. "It doesn't look as bad as the opposition paints it and it's definitely not as benevolent as the government depicts it. The real weakness is that in its hurry to pass the reform, the government hasn't really explained the 2,000 laws that would change. So it doesn't look bright, especially with this government's track record."

The governing AK Party had to rely on parliamentary votes from the far-right MHP to lead the country to a referendum. For long, the MHP leader, Devlet Bahceli, opposed the presidential system: "The Turkish nation has never allowed a Hitler," he once said, "and it will not allow Erdogan to get away with this," calling it the recipe for "a sultanate without a throne."

But arm-twisting and rumours that he could be offered one of the vice presidential posts has prompted a spectacular U-turn. The question now is whether he can persuade his party to follow. The party's deputy chairman and several local MHP officials have already resigned over Mr Bahceli's stance.

"It seems this is not going Bahceli's way," says Dr Kasim Han. "But the naysayers may not feel able to go against the party culture by contradicting the leader."

Opposition to the reform is led by the centre-left CHP and the pro-Kurdish HDP parties, the latter of which has been portrayed by the government as linked to terrorism. Several of its MPs and the party leaders are now in prison.

AKP and MHP voters who oppose the reform may feel pressured into voting in favour, so as not to be tarnished as supporting "terrorists," especially since the referendum will take place under the state of emergency imposed after the attempted coup.

"Holding the vote under this state of emergency makes it susceptible to allegations that people don't feel free to say no," says Dr Kasim Han. "It casts a shadow over the outcome."

Polling has been contradictory and Turkish opinion pollsters are notoriously politicised. But all signs point to a very tight race.

With the detail of the constitutional reform impenetrable to many, the referendum has become focused around Mr Erdogan himself: a president who elicits utmost reverence from one side of the country and intense hatred from the other.

The decision as to whether to grant him the powers he's long coveted will determine the political fate of this deeply troubled but hugely important country.