The DCCC Failed Beyond Anyone's Wildest Expectations

 

Let's start at the top, in the northeast corner of Illinois, CD-17, carefully gerrymandered by the Democratic legislature to elect Democrats. But instead of a Democrat, it is represented by Blue Dog/New Dem Cheri Bustos, chair of the DCCC. When I woke this morning 55% of the votes had been counted and this is what it looks like:

• Esther Joy King (R)- 91,942 (51.9%)
• Chris Bustos- 85,187 (48.1%)

One of the problem the Democrats had this cycle is that Bustos was determined to create a Democratic House conference that looked like her-- conservative-- by recruiting and supporting dreadful candidates. It will be a few more days before we know exactly how much the DCCC and the House Majority PAC wasted on conservative Democrats but they raised close to $300 million and tens of millions of dollars were flushed down the toilet trying to save the seats of worthless Blue Dogs and New Dems and in trying to elect more worthless Blue Dog and New Dem candidates.

In terms of IEs, the DCCC spent, for example, $5 million trying to save Collin Peterson's ass. Why? So he could continue voting with the Republicans. Maybe that $5 million could have been pumped into Austin and elected progressives Mike Siegel and Julie Oliver. Instead, if you add up all the money the DCCC and the House Majority PAC spent on IEs for both Mike and Julie together you come up with a grand total of... zero.

All 3 districts-- MN-07, TX-10 and TX-25-- had immense turnout and all three have been officially called for the Republicans. That $5 million helped buy Peterson 137,085 votes (39.9%). And the lack of help from the DCCC didn't prevent Siegel from taking 186,210 votes (45.3%) and Oliver from taking 164,415 votes (42.0%). Siegel and Oliver challenged Republican multimillionaires Michael McCaul and Roger Williams and were seriously out-raised-- McCaul $3,515,771 to Siegel's $2,332,415 and Williams' $2,160,554 (including at least $50,000 from his own personal bank account) to Oliver's $1,809,951. Meanwhile, decades of corporate-friendly corruption helped Peterson keep up with Congresswoman-elect Michelle Fischbach. She raised $2,205,150 and he raised $2,284,742. That extra $5 million from the DCCC didn't do any good at all.

As Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer put it at Politico this morning, "Tuesday was an abject disaster for Democrats in Washington. To imagine the amount of soul searching and explaining the party will have to do after Tuesday is absolutely dizzying. The infighting will be bloody-- as it should be. We fielded text after text from Hill Democrats Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning with existential questions about their leadership and the direction of their party... Democrats and Republicans told us that Dems would win a dozen seats in the House, and knock off a whole host of Republican incumbents, and that was completely wrong. Instead, Republicans-- powered by the NRCC and CLF-- beat a bunch of Democratic incumbents."

Votes are still being counted but it is safe to say that the Republicans are going to be a much stronger minority party in the House than they were in 2019 and 2020. I can't find a single case of a Democrat beating a Republican incumbent but I see at least half a dozen Democratic incumbents-- generally from the conservative Republican wing of the Democratic Party (so no tears spilled)-- losing, including odious Blue Dogs Collin Peterson (MN), Kendra Horn (OK), Joe Cunningham (SC), Max Rose (NY), Xochitl Torres Small (NM), and Anthony Brindisi (NY), plus Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (New Dem-FL) and Donna Shalala (FL), the last two in districts that are, respectively, D+6 and D+5.

I'll go state by state where there were House races worth mentioning. In Alaska, the DCCC supported an independent candidate, Alyse Galvin against Don Young. She out-raised Young $4,390,232 to $1,778,232 and the DCCC and the House Majority PAC spent around $2 million on her. Although just 36% of votes are counted, she's just at 38.2%.

Arizona was a bright spot for Democrats. Biden flipped the state and conservative quasi-Democrat Mark Kelly beat incumbent Republican Martha McSally. Although Blue Dog (and "ex"-Republican) Tom O'Halleran is hanging on to his seat my his fingernails, New Dem Hiral Tirpirneni appears to be about to possibly beat a Republican incumbent-- leading David Schweikert 169,543 (50.3%) to 167,761 (49.7%), with 80% of the vote counted.

In Arkansas, it looked like the Democrats had a shot in the Little Rock district with Joyce Elliott, but incumbent French Hill beat back the challenge 55.1% to 44.9%. California's final results will probably take at least a week-- at least but there are 13 uncalled House races now; these are the ones that might result in a district flip:

• CA-01- 73% counted

Doug LaMalfa (R)- 142,742 (55%)
Audrey Denney (D)- 116,985 (45%)

• CA-04- 81% counted

Tom McClintock (R)- 173,324 (52.9%)
Brynne Kennedy (New Dem)- 154,090 (47.1%)

• CA-08 (open seat)- 60% counted

Jay Obernolte (R)- 90,179 (53.3%)
Christine Bubser (D)- 79,080 (46.7%)

• CA-21- 71% counted (in a disgustingly low turn-out election

David Valadao (R)- 56,269 (51.4%)
TJ Cox (New Dem)- 53,236 (48.6%)

• CA-22- 86% counted

Devin Nunes (R)- 126,022 (53.5%)
Phil Arballo (D)- 109,596 (46.5%)

• CA-25- 82% counted

Christy Smith (New Dem)- 131,218 (50.5%)
Mike Garcia (R)- 128,462 (49.5%)

• CA-39- 85% counted

Young Kim (R)- 134,556 (50.2%)
Gil Cisneros (New Dem)- 133-263 (49.8%)

• CA-42- 49% counted

Ken Calvert (R)- 83,706 (55.4%)
Liam O'Mara (D)- 67,331 (44.6%)

• CA-48- 93% counted

Michelle Steel (R)- 169,179 (50.3%)
Harley Rouda (New Dem)- 167,229 (49.7%)

• CA-50- 78% counted

Darrell Issa (R)- 136,322 (52.2%)
Ammar Campa-Najjar (New Dem)- 124,688 (47.8%)

Colorado has just one uncalled race but it doesn't look good. Neo-Nazi Lauren Boebert beat right-wing Republican Scott Tipton in the primary and now she's leading Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush 51.1% to 45.7% with 91% counted.

In Florida, the state party did what it does best-- lost through lack of trying and through incompetence and self-serving corruption. They lost two seats in very blue districts and failed to win any of the seats that looked flippable.

In Georgia, the two uncalled races in the Atlanta suburbs both show New Dems leading-- incumbent Lucy McBath with 53.5% and Carolyn Bourdeaux with 51.2% in the open red seat.

In Illinois-- aside from the good news about Bustos' agony-- it looks like progressive Marie Newman will replace Blue Dog Dan Lipinski by beating Mike Fricilone 53.2% to 46.8%. Meanwhile with 78% of the vote counted perennial super-rich right-wing nutcase Jim Oberweis may be on the verge of ousting New Dem Lauren Underwood. With 78% of the votes counted, he has 151,425 (50.3%) to her 149,395 (49.7%).

Indiana looked like a chance for a Democratic pickup in an open red seat (IN-05) but with 89% of the vote counted, it looks like New Dem Christina Hale was beamed by Victoria Spartz 51.7% to 44.2%.

Iowa-- TOTAL shitshow: Trump won the state, Joni Ernst was reelected to the Senate over a weak Democratic opponent Chuck Schumer recruited, and all 4 house seats look pretty bad. Randy Feenstra (basically Steve King-lite) beat JD Scholten 62.1% to 37.9% (86% counted) after the DCCC told him they wouldn't help him unless he played down his progressive agenda and allowed them to staff his campaign with their useless operatives; he turned them down. Conservative and useless incumbent Abby Finkenauer is behind 211,573 (51.3%) to 200,814 (48.7% with 91% counted and the even worse New Dem Cindy Axne is barely hanging on-- 218,968 (49.0%) to 212,727 (47.6%). It was thought that Rita Hart would hold onto Democrat's Dave Loebsack's seat but with 89% of the vote counted it's a 50-50 race-- 196,773 for Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and 196,487 for Hart.

In Michigan it looks like Justin Amash's seat is going to Republican supermarket scion Peter Meijer instead of New Dem Hillary Scholten. The DCCC decided to not help Jon Hoadley (too progressive and too gay for their tastes) and he lost 58-38% to Fred Upton (with 70% counted). New Dem Elissa Slotkin is narrowly holding onto her seat (MI-08) with 50.9% and 96% of the vote counted but fellow New Dem Haley Stevens seems to be losing-- 77% counted-- to Eric Esshaki, 50.4% to 47.6%. Good news: Rashida stomped her GOP opponent 77.2% to 19.5%.

Democrats missed pick-up opportunities in Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and New Jersey, where New Dem Amy Kennedy looks to be failing to oust fence-jumper Jeff Van Drew who is ahead 50.9% to 47.5% (75% counted).

In New Mexico the Torres Small/Herrell rematch looks like (68% counted) the Republican beat the Blue Dog 53.3% to 46.6% this time. The Trump voters that didn't come out in 2018, definitely voted yesterday!

New York had 6 Democratic losers: New Dem Nancy Goroff and Blue Dog Jackie Gordon on Long Island, Blue Dog Max Rose (with just 42.1% of the vote) in Brooklyn/Staten Island, Blue Dog Anthony Brindisi (NY-22), progressive Dana Balter (58.5% to 37.8%) and progressive Nate McMurray (31.1%). On a brighter note, look forward to Congressmen Jamaal Bowman and Mondaire Jones, while AOC beat back the well-financed ($9,590,891) Republican challenge with about 70% of the vote.

North Carolina reelected Democratic Governor Roy Cooper but it looks bad for Biden and Cunningham and with all House seats now called, the Dems picked up the two lay-ups (NC-02 and NC-06), both with crap conservatives but failed everywhere else they thought they had a chance. Nazi Madison Cawthorn beat Moe Davis 243,898 (54.5%) to 189,516 (42.4%).

The only district the DCCC tried to win in Ohio was in Cincinnati and their New Dem candidate lost with 44.5%.

In Oklahoma, one of the worst Dems in Congress, Blue Dog Kendra Horn was beaten 158,044 (52.1%) to 145,541 (47.9%)-- with 95% reporting. Good riddance!

Pennsylvania is still counting votes but it looks like New Dem Christina Finello is losing to Brian Fitzpatrick in the bluest Pennsylvania seat held by a Republican. Meanwhile conservatives Chrissy Houlahan (52.7%), Susan Wild (46.7%) and Conor Lamb (43%) are having trouble holding onto their seats, Blue Dog Eugene DePasquale is being crushed. With 82% of the vote counted, Matt Cartwright is having a tough time as well but will probably hold onto his seat once all the early votes are counted.

Texas was tragic. Every Democratic hope-- the good, the bad and the ugly-- was dashed. Instead of half a dozen pick-ups, there were no changes and the Democrats came close to losing a New Dem (Lizzie Fletcher) and a Blue Dog (Vicente Gonzalez). The DCCC poured over $7 million into Blue Dog Sri Kulkarni's race and he lost 202,320 (49.8%) to 173,899 (42.8%). Even the "easiest" seat for the Dems to flip-- TX-23, an open seat Hillary won and with an R+1 PVI-- was lost by Gina Ortiz Jones, a mediocre candidate the DCCC spent over $5 million on.

With just 67% of the vote counted, Utah Blue Dog Ben McAdams in barely holding onto his seay-- 109,880 (49.5%) to 102,115 (46%).

In Virginia conservative Democrat Elaine Luria seems to be holding on with 50.7% and Blue Dog Abigail Spanberger is in a 50-50 nail-biter against neo-Nazi Nick Freitas (199,786 to 199,513, with 86% of the vote counted).

And no changes in West Virginia, Wisconsin or Wyoming. In Washington 10's D vs D race, conservative New Dem Marilyn Strickland beat progressive Beth Doglio 50.2% to 35.9%.

Once all the figures are in, we'll look more closely at how Bustos wasted hundreds of millions of dollars trying-- and mostly failing-- to elect conservative Democraps.