Election Day Open Thread, I
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Rather than just run pre-scheduled posts like every other day, the DWT election day coverage will include open threads between posts. This is my first. I invited Tom, Noah and Ken to do likewise.
The map up top predicts a big Trump loss, even if I'm wrong about Florida and if all 3 final toss-ups go to Trump.
I know it's getting late, but I want to remind you that if you want to vote Trump out of office today, but you haven't registered to vote yet, you can still cast ballots in 19 states + DC: California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming. (H/T Ari Berman)
The final set of Change Research polls of the cycle found that voters who did not vote in 2016 are supporting Biden by a 23-point margin (59% Biden, 36% Trump).They also found that Gary Johnson voters are nearly twice as likely to support Biden over Trump or Jo Jorgensen this year (44% of Johnson voters are supporting Biden, 28% Trump, 24% Jorgensen).
In Senate races, they found Mark Kelly (D) leading Martha McSally (R) 51-47% in Arizona, Sara Gideon (D) leading Susan Collins (R) 46-42% in Maine, Cal Cunnimgham (D) leading Thom Tillis (R) 50-46% in North Carolina, Theresa Greenfield (D) leading Joni Ernst (R) 48-47% in Iowa, but Steve Daines (R) leading Steve Bullock 50-46% in Montana. Ironically, Bullock is the only person on the list who would probably make a decent senator.
The also polled key House races:
• NE-02- Kara Eastman beating Rep Don Bacon 48-47%
• NY-24- Dana Balter beating Rep John Katko 46-44%
• OK-05- 47-47 tie between Blue Dog Rep Kendra Horn and Stephanie Bice (R)
• AR-02- 48-48% tie between Joyce Elliott (D) and Rep French Hill (R)
• IN-05- 46-46% tie between Christina Hale (D) and Victoria Spartz (R)
• MO-02- 46-46% tie between Jill Schupp (D) and Rep Ann Wagner (R)
• OH-01- Rep Steve Chabot (R) beating Kate Schroder (D) 47-45%
Yesterday, Matt Taibbi explained why he couldn't bring himself to vote for Biden-Harris: "Trump’s incompetence and influence on the darkest part of the national character make it morally impossible to vote for him. But his opponents are lying, witch-hunting scum in their own right, a club of censorious bureaucrats whose instincts for democracy and free speech hover somewhere between the mid-seventies GDR and the Church of Scientology. I thought all year I’d be able to do it, but I wake up this week unable to talk myself into voting for these people, even against Trump. What choices they give us! Thank God at least it’s about to be over. If it’s about to be over. Please, let it be over." I didn't either. But Taibbi and I need the rest of you to save the world from Trump. So, unless you live in California, Massachusetts, New York and a few other states that allow for the luxury we've availed ourselves of... do your duty today.
UPDATE
Adam Stone, publisher of Examiner Media in Mt. Kisco, New York, leans kind of conservative in an old mainstream Republican way. Today he explained why he is urging his newspapers' readers to oppose Trump.
It’s been said that Trump is a poor man’s idea of a rich man, a weak man’s idea of a strong man and a stupid man’s idea of a smart man. But that belittles the intelligence and ability to judge character of so many intelligent and genuinely kind Trump voters. (And I’m distinguishing here between Trump voters and his most vociferous rally-going, bridge-blocking supporters).UPDATE 2
The truth is, I don’t understand why these otherwise astute, normal people fail to see through the transparent con, or at least I don’t understand why they don’t care about the man’s deep and dangerous flaws. But, as I continue to try to understand why so many people refuse to believe what they see, why they won’t condemn behavior they’d admonish from a fellow parent on the sidelines of a youth soccer field but not in the leader of the free world, I’m reminded of the child in The Emperor’s New Clothes.
“But he hasn’t got anything on,” a little child reveals of the naked emperor in the fable while adults gush at the emperor’s phantom fancy clothing.
Trump might be wearing (and selling) a silly red hat but this small-minded, morally bankrupt, weak emperor is standing in front of us, stark naked. All you need to do is look and listen. Just don’t forget to believe what you see and hear. Character should trump all other considerations.
Congressional district polls that also asked about the presidential race indicate that Trump is doing even worse than the national polling shows he is. (Remember as you scan these districts the numbers are predictive of the presidential race not necessarily the House race. (In some cases House candidates are doing better than Biden and in other cases, Biden's coattails are helping them.) The districts we're looking at though, are just districts where progressive congressional candidates are in contention.
• AR-02 (Joyce Elliott)- Trump's margin was 10.7 and now Biden is leading by 3I also want to mention that there is a lot of chatter that several Blue Dogs could go down to defeat. I disagree. I hope they all lose but that hope is not going to bear fruit. One of the Washington Post columnists is predicting garbage freshmen Blue Dogs Xochitl Torres-Small (NM), Max Rose (NY), Anthony Brindisi (NY), Kendra Horn (OK), Joe Cunningham (SC) and Ben McAdams (UT) will lose. I hate to say it, but I think he's wrong. Trump's margins are down significantly in their districts. In fact, in Cunningham's district, Trump win by 13.1% and now he and Biden are essentially even. Trump won NY-11 (Rose) by 9.8 and is now winning with just 3. Trump's margin is way down in NM-02 (Torres-Small) as well-- from10.2% to just 6%. Trump won OK-05 by 13.4 and is now up by 6. Most disappointing-- for me and for many Democrats in the House who were hoping to get rid of him-- Brindisi's NY-22 shows Biden leading by, Trump having won it in 2016 by 15.5!
• MI-06 (Jon Hoadley)- Trump's margin was 8.6 and he's now ahead by just 6.7
• NE-02 (Kara Eastman)- Trump's margin was 2.2 and now Biden is leading by 7
• NY-24 (Dana Balter)- Clinton's margin was 3.6 and now Biden is leading by 13
• TX-10 (Mike Siegel)- Trump's margin was 9.1 and now Biden has evened it up exactly
• TX-25 (Julie Oliver)- Trump's margin was 14.9 and he's now leading by 4
Labels: 2020 elections, Martin Sheen, Matt Taibbi, open thread
posted by DownWithTyranny @ 7:28 AM
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The real problem is that the Biden campaign in FL is run by the same idiots who ignore local activists in favor of useless party hacks. If you need proof of this look at the history of the Democratic political party in FL, which is worse than useless.
Worse, because if there were NO Dem political party establishment in FL, one would be spontaneously created by FL Dems. And, of course, no way could it be worse than the corrupt and useless existing party that actually tries to block progressives from taking office, preferring to help Republicans!
I don't know about AZ but I sure hope Maricopa County turns out, because we can't count on the Biden consultants to run a competent campaign in PA. Trump's campaign is even more corrupt and wasteful than Biden's which is why Biden has a good chance of winning today. But, against a really GOOD GOP machine, Biden would be crushed.
It looks like his GOTV efforts on the ground will fall short of Hillary's. And that wasn't good. Trump meanwhile threw away every chance to win by actually doing something about the virus and winning moderates.
Agreed, Cugel. I presume you meant to say that trump pissed it away by NOT doing anything about the virus and winning the "kinder" nazi demographic.
I still find it endlessly amusing that someone can boast about having principles, yet still advocate others reject theirs:
"I didn't (vote for biden) either. But Taibbi and I need the rest of you to save the world from Trump."
If your principles mean you cannot vote for the lifelong racist misogynist corrupt neoliberal fascist rapist nor his equally odious party, why do you "need" everyone else to repudiate those same principles?
Here's an idea. Instead of asking for them to save your ass from your own principles, maybe ask them to consider those same principles... and advocate they vote as you did. If as many follow your lead in this manner as you expect to follow your hypocritical request... maybe we could end up with a better outcome than a 2-year semi-lull between nazi admins and continued affirmation of the continued rightward creep of the OTHER corrupt neoliberal fascist party.
voters are colossally stupid. but part of that is that the 'better' ones cannot bring themselves to ask the stupid to commit to 'better'.
you get the ... irony here, right?
Howie Klein, why are you promoting a misogynist libertarian grifter like Matt Taibbi by linking to his Substack?
if he can promote the likes of boot and frum... why not. sheepdog gotta bark.
Did whoever put this up yesterday even feel a twinge of introspection at how spectacularly wrong that electoral map is?
or is the dog still barking?
I wonder if in 2 or 4 years, if this column still exists, will readers still believe all the horse-shit polling and electoral projections?
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