Why Sweden Failed The Test-- And Why Republican States Are Following Them To Perdition

End of the Line by Nancy Ohanian

A few weeks ago we took a quick look at how the transformation of Sweden's Social Democratic party from a socialist to a neo-liberal monstrosity led to a catastrophic approach to the pandemic. Discounting the postage-stamp sized countries, Sweden has been the worst-hit of the Western European nations by the pandemic. It's the only European country whose people are suffering at a rate even approaching a modestly hit American state, say Kansas (8,090 per million residents) or Wisconsin (7,580 per million residents).

• Sweden- 7,737 cases per million Swedes
• Spain- 6,700 cases per million Spaniards
• Iceland- 5,654 cases per million Vikings
• Belgium- 5,529 cases per million Belgians
• Ireland- 5,222 cases per million Irishmen
• Portugal- 4,796 cases per million Portuguese
• U.K.- 4,356 cases per million Brits
• Italy- 4,048 cases per million Italians
• Switzerland- 3,897 cases per million Swiss
• Netherlands- 3,039 cases per million Hollanders
• France- 2,717 cases per million Frenchmen
• Germany- 2,433 cases per million Germans
• Denmark- 2,296 cases per million Danes
• Austria- 2,201 cases per million Austrians
• Norway- 1,668 cases per million Norsemen

And though Sweden has the 15th largest population among European countries, the Swedish COVID death rate ranks 5th, again, excluding the postage stamp-sized countries.

• Belgium- 846 deaths per million residents
• U.K.- 669 deaths per million residents
• Spain- 608 deaths per million residents
• Italy- 580 deaths per million residents
• Sweden- 559 deaths per million residents
• France- 462 deaths per million residents
• Netherlands- 358 deaths per million residents
• Ireland- 355 deaths per million residents

And, for sake of comparison, the U.S. rate-- which is rising rapidly, far more rapidly than in any European country-- is 438 deaths per million residents.

Yesterday 25 Swedish doctors and scientists signed an OpEd published by USA Today, Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don't do what we did. It's not working. Although they don't admit it, the U.S. states-- particularly Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and Missouri-- doing worst in this second spike of the first wave are almost all using Sweden as a model. It's a failed, discredited model and the Sweden scientists are warning other countries to steer clear of it.

Sweden has often been considered a leader when it comes to global humanitarian issues, regarded as a beacon of light in areas such as accepting refugees and working against global warming. In the COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden has also created interest around the world by following its own path of using a “soft” approach-- not locking down, introducing mostly voluntary restrictions and spurning the use of masks.

This approach has been perceived as more liberal and has shown up in “Be Like Sweden” signs and chants at U.S. protests. Wherever measures have been lenient, though, death rates have peaked. In the United States, areas that are coming out of lockdown early are suffering, and we are seeing the same in other countries as well.

The motives for the Swedish Public Health Agency's light-touch approach are somewhat of a mystery. Some other countries that initially used this strategy swiftly abandoned it as the death toll began to increase, opting instead for delayed lockdowns. But Sweden has been faithful to its approach.

Why? Gaining herd immunity, where large numbers of the population (preferably younger) are infected and thereby develop immunity, has not been an official goal of the Swedish Public Health Agency. But it has said immunity in the population could help suppress the spread of the disease, and some agency statements suggest it is the secret goal.

An unnerving death rate

Further evidence of this is that the agency insists on mandatory schooling for young children, the importance of testing has been played down for a long time, the agency refused to acknowledge the importance of asymptomatic spread of the virus (concerningly, it has encouraged those in households with COVID-19 infected individuals to go to work and school) and still refuses to recommend masks in public, despite the overwhelming evidence of their effectiveness. In addition, the stated goal of the Swedish authorities was always not to minimize the epidemic, but rather slow it down, so that the health care system wouldn’t be overwhelmed.

Several authorities, including the World Health Organization, have condemned herd immunity as a strategy. "It can lead to a very brutal arithmetic that does not put people and life and suffering at the center of that equation,” Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO's Health Emergencies Program, said at a press conference in May.

Regardless of whether herd immunity is a goal or a side effect of the Swedish strategy, how has it worked out? Not so well, according to the agency’s own test results. The proportion of Swedes carrying antibodies is estimated to be under 10%, thus nowhere near herd immunity. And yet, the Swedish death rate is unnerving. Sweden has a death toll greater than the United States: 556 deaths per million inhabitants, compared with 425, as of July 20.

Sweden also has a death toll more than four and a half times greater than that of the other four Nordic countries combined-- more than seven times greater per million inhabitants. For a number of weeks, Sweden has been among the top in the world when it comes to current reported deaths per capita. And despite this, the strategy in essence remains the same.

Learn from Sweden's mistakes

It is possible that the Public Health Authority actually believed that the Swedish approach was the most appropriate and sustainable one, and that the other countries, many of which went into lockdown, would do worse. Perhaps this, and not herd immunity, is the main reason the authorities are desperately clinging to their strategy. Or perhaps an unwillingness to admit early mistakes and take responsibility for thousands of unnecessary deaths plays into this resistance to change. Nevertheless, the result at this stage is unequivocal.

We do believe Sweden can be used as a model, but not in the way it was thought of initially. It can instead serve as a control group and answer the question of how efficient the voluntary distancing and loose measures in Sweden are compared to lockdowns, aggressive testing, tracing and the use of masks.

In Sweden, the strategy has led to death, grief and suffering and on top of that there are no indications that the Swedish economy has fared better than in many other countries. At the moment, we have set an example for the rest of the world on how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease.

In the end, this too shall pass and life will eventually return to normal. New medical treatments will come and improve the prognosis. Hopefully there will be a vaccine. Stick it out until then. And don’t do it the Swedish way.

Back To School With Betsy And Donald by Nancy Ohanian

Monday's and ---> Tuesday's reports showed the dozen worst one-day case increases in the U.S. almost exclusively in states were right-wing ideology has crowded out science:

• Florida +10,347 ---> +9,440
• California +8,814 ---> 10,278
• Texas +7,925 ---> 9,992
• Louisiana +3,186 ---> 1,698
• Georgia +2,452 ---> 3,413
• Alabama +1,880 ---> +1,467
• Tennessee +1,639 ---> 2,190
• Arizona +1,559 ---> +3,500
• North Carolina +1,478 ---> 1,626
• South Carolina +1,459 ---> 1,892
• Mississippi +1,251 ---> 1,635
• Ohio +1,230 ---> 1,073