Behavior And The Pandemic-- Connected At The Hip

An old friend of mine is a top academic at "the Harvard" of another western country. One of his colleagues is in charge of the pandemic medical response for the country. He told my friend that they really don't know as much about COVID as they need to know to combat it effectively. Nearly half a year in and they're still shooting in the dark! On top of that, even statistics are untrustworthy. China has probably been sharing fake stats for most of the time. Florida is worse and Texas may be as well. Many countries don't have a grip on how to count cases or even deaths among their own people.

This morning, Politico's Alice Ollstein and Dan Goldberg reported that "The coronavirus is spiking in more than a dozen states and intensive care beds are filling again, but several governors have no plans to reimpose shutdown measures or pause reopenings, a sign that the political will to take drastic measures has dissipated even as the virus is still raging. In Texas, where total cases have shot up by one-third in the last two weeks, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is moving ahead with plans to let virtually all businesses keep expanding capacity by the end of this week. Arkansas Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who insists recent surges in infections and hospitalizations aren’t tied to his lifting restrictions, on Wednesday announced the state's reopening will move forward as planned next week. In North Carolina, which is reporting its highest-ever levels of new infections and hospitalizations, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper said reimposing restrictions would be a last resort. Just one state, Utah, has paused the next phase in its reopening plan amid a two-week spike in new cases... The governors’ attitudes mark a shift in the national view of the best way to respond to the virus that is still infecting more than 20,000 people in the U.S every day. State officials hesitant to pause gradually reawakening economies contend they are better equipped to identify and stamp out outbreaks than when Covid-19 emerged just a few months ago. They point out they’ve been stocking up on protective gear for health care workers, expanding the capacity to test for and track the virus, and monitoring outbreaks in meatpacking plants, nursing homes, prisons and other facilities that have been hot spots. They also bluntly acknowledge that the public has quarantine fatigue."

Yesterday, the Washington Post published a piece by reporters Samantha Pell, Candace Buckner and Jacqueline Dupree on one statistic that is reasonably accurate almost anywhere-- maybe not Florida and China, but everywhere else-- hospitalization rate increases. Remember all those liberating parties during the Memorial Day weekend? "As more than a dozen states and Puerto Rico are recording their highest averages of new cases since the pandemic began," they wrote, "hospitalizations in at least nine states have been on the rise since Memorial Day. In Texas, North and South Carolina, California, Oregon, Arkansas, Mississippi, Utah and Arizona, there are an increasing number of patients under supervised care since the holiday weekend because of coronavirus infections. The spikes generally began in the past couple weeks and in most states are trending higher. Data from states that are now reporting some of their highest seven-day averages of new cases is disproving the notion that the country is seeing such a spike in cases solely because of the continued increase in testing."

Many of these states that have experienced an increase in cases have also had an increase in hospitalizations, with a handful of states also nearing bed capacity. Hospitalizations nationwide are difficult to track, with states reporting hospitalization numbers in varying ways, or not at all. Even states that do report hospitalization numbers may not have always received complete data from every hospital in the state at the time of their reports.

Texas has reported 75,616 cases since the pandemic began, and in 10 of the past 15 days, the state’s seven-day average of new cases has increased.

As of Tuesday, it has reported two consecutive days of record-breaking coronavirus hospitalizations. The state has seen a 36 percent increase in new cases since Memorial Day, with a record 2,056 current hospitalizations as of early Tuesday afternoon. It was up from a high of 1,935 hospitalizations on Monday.

Texas was one of the first states to relax their stay-at-home order. Businesses started to open up in early May. According to the state’s health department, Texas has 28.14 percent of available hospital beds open, and 1,723 available intensive-care unit beds.

In Arizona, 28,296 cases have been reported as of Tuesday, and in 13 of the past 15 days the state’s seven-day average of new cases has increased. There have been a record number of hospitalizations in the state over the past few days. As of Tuesday, Arizona reported 1,243 current hospitalizations, a 49 percent increase since Memorial Day, when there were 833 hospitalizations.

Arizona has also been struggling with its bed capacity. On Friday, Banner Health, one of the largest health-care systems in the country, confirmed that ICUs in Arizona were nearing capacity. Roughly 50 percent of all those hospitalized are in Banner Health facilities. As of Monday, 76 percent of all ICU beds in Arizona were in use, according to data from the state health department.

Arkansas has reported 10,080 cases, and in 11 of the past 15 days the state’s seven-day average of new cases has increased. It has had an 88 percent increase in hospitalizations since Memorial Day. Arkansas had 173 hospitalizations reported on Tuesday, compared with 92 on May 25.

According to local reports, hospitals statewide remained below capacity on Monday, and none of the new coronavirus cases had been linked to recent protests in the state.

The Carolinas have also seen a rise in hospitalizations, with North Carolina experiencing the second-largest spike in the nation behind Texas. North Carolina’s upward trend began after Memorial Day. On May 26, the state reported 621 hospitalizations but two weeks later, that number has climbed to 774.

In South Carolina, hospitalizations sharply increased Monday. In that 24-hour span, there were 30 new hospitalizations, or a 6 percent jump, for a total of 507 covid-19 patients. With the current spike, 12 counties in South Carolina have reached 75 percent of hospital capacity or greater, according to the state’s health department.

Mississippi has reported 18,109 cases since the pandemic begin. On Tuesday, it recorded 671 hospitalizations, a new daily high. It has seen an 17 percent increase in hospitalizations since Memorial Day, with 573 reported on May 25.

In Utah, new covid-19 cases are on the rise and as a result, so are hospitalizations. Utah’s coronavirus task force tweeted that the state has seen a spike in coronavirus cases, and it wasn’t because of testing or a lone outbreak.

Similar to other regions, Utah’s numbers have climbed steadily since Memorial Day, as the seven-day average of new cases has increased 12 of the past 15 days. Over that two-week span, Utah’s current hospitalizations more than doubled, and as of Tuesday afternoon, 230 patients were hospitalized with covid-19.

Arizona tourist sites were packed for Memorial Day weekend. Lake Havasu, a popular vacation destination, was full, according to local officials. In South Carolina, a host of entertainment venues, including zoos, aquariums and water parks, were allowed to open the weekend ahead of Memorial Day. In North Carolina, restaurants were allowed to open at reduced capacity and public pools at 50 percent capacity during Memorial Day weekend.

In the video above, you'll hear Chris Martensen explain that Arizona was one of the earlier states to reopen businesses. "What happened," he asked rhetorically and responds, "It turns out that Arizona hospitals are being told to fully activate emergency plans by the state health director. Why? Because COVID-19 numbers continue to spike in Arizona. Arizona reopened 4 weeks ago and... 4 weeks later we're getting the spike."

Arizona has the 20th most cases among states-- but the 11th most active cases, indicating a big recent spike. Other states with huge disparities like that-- where the pandemic is out of control-- include Ohio (19th most cases overall, but 10th most active cases) and Missouri (just 29th most cases but 20th in active cases).

Nebraska Governor COVID-Pete... No masks or social distancing for him

With the 8 worst-hit early states-- New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware-- seeing the pandemic curve starting to flatten, the states where the curve is steepening, is where we can look for problems this summer. These are the cases per million-- Tuesday followed by Wednesday followed by today-- for surging states with anti-social distancing behavior inspired by Trump and Trumpist governors:

• Nebraska- 8,211--> 8,284--> n.a. cases per million
• Iowa- 7,048--> 7,171--> 7,282
• South Dakota- 6,243--> 6,335--> 6,404
• Mississippi- 6,085--> 6,210--> n.a.
• Georgia- 5,015--> 5,084--> 5,178
• Alabama- 4,369--> 4,485--> 4,659
• Tennessee- 4,038--> 4,081--> 4,150
• Utah- 3,917--> 4,013--> 4,134
• Arizona- 3,887--> 4,101--> 4,295
• North Dakota- 3,807--> 3,859--> 3,910
• New Hampshire- 3,774--> 3,808--> 3,831
• Arkansas- 3,340--> 3,436--> 3,584
• Florida- 3,073--> 3,137--> 3,216 (fake stats; numbers likely to be at least double)
• South Carolina- 2,958--> 3,061--> 3,193
• Texas- 2,724--> 2,808--> 2,871
• Missouri- 2,517--> 2,553--> 2,589

Just for comparison's sake, other countries in the COVID-news with their cases per million:

Spain- 6,198
UK- 4,294
Italy- 3,905
Brazil- 3,792
Russia- 3,443
Canada- 2,585
France- 2,383
Germany- 2,230

And just as Señor Trumpanzee announced he's starting his renewed in-personal fundraising with a $10 million dinner in Dallas, that state's health officials announced that there are currently 2,153 COVID patients in its hospitals, "marking the third-straight day of record-breaking coronavirus hospitalizations in Texas.

Texas was among the first states to relax its statewide stay-at-home order, allowing it to expire April 30 and some businesses to resume operations May 1. On June 3, Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order to announce the third phase of the state’s plan to open additional businesses and activities.

Coronavirus hospitalizations, like new cases and deaths, are considered a key measure of the outbreak because it helps scientists gauge how severe it may be. Research shows that it can take anywhere from five to 12 days for people to show symptoms from the virus.

Public health specialists warn that a slow burn of infection through the summer could lead to a massive resurgence this fall.