Republican Concern About Another Ass-Whooping By The Voters Grows

Yesterday, Gallup released a new poll that shows Trump's job approval cratering, down to 39% for the week ending June 4. "His current level of approval," they wrote, "would make another term as president unlikely, given the historical relationship between job approval ratings and incumbent reelection. With five months to go before Election Day, there is still time for those ratings to improve and get back near the 50% level associated with incumbent reelection in the past, but also time for them to get worse and give the president even longer odds of winning a second term."

Just as Gallup was releasing their bad news for Trump, Politico released the latest in-depth Morning Consult survey, which also looks disastrous for an incumbent president. Among registered voters, 39% approve of Trump, while 58% disapprove (47% of them strongly.) Furthermore no one likes the members of two of Trump's key demographics. Only 4% have a favorable opinion of neo-Nazis (81% have an unfavorable view) and just 5% like the most important component of the Trump coalition-- white supremicists-- while 84% have an unfavorable opinion. And compared to other high-profile politicians, Trump looks like a loser. These are the net approval ratings

• Mitch McConnell- minus 25%
• Señor Trumpanzee- minus 18%
• Republicans in Congress- minus 18%
• Nancy Pelosi- 36% (52%) minus 16%
• Kevin McCarthy- minus 15%
• Chuck Schumer- 26% (40%) minus 14%
• Mike Pence- 40% (46%) minus 6%
• Democrats in Congress- minus 6%
• Elizabeth Warren- minus 1
• Joe Biden- 46-46% (neutral)

This has hurt the notoriously thin-skinned and ratings obsessed Señor T's feelings. So he's suing CNN. He had an attorney for his campaign serve them with a cease and desist order, demanding they retract (and apologize for) a poll with results very much like the two from Gallup and Morning Consult. The CNN poll shows Trump with a 38% approval rating and shows Biden beating him 55-41%. CNN laughed at his cease and desist letter, delighted with the publicity.

Republicans in Congress-- especially those up for reelection-- don't find it laughable. Two Washington Post stories in recent days says it all: What Keeps Senate Republicans From Ditching Trump? and Republicans Fear Trump's Weakened Standing Jeopardizes The Party In November. In the latter piece, Bob Costa and Phil Rucker wrote that "there is no sign yet of a mass exodus from the runaway Trump train. If anything, most elected Republicans see themselves as prisoners onboard, calculating that jumping off would lead to almost certain defeat. Conversations at the highest ranks of the party have reached what one veteran operative called the 'acceptance phase of grieving,' where 'there is an understanding that he’s president until at least November, and there is not much we can do about it.' … Strategists over the past week have suggested myriad ways embattled incumbents could tiptoe around Trump’s rolling controversies, as opposed to embracing them."

House districts tend to be more polarized than most entire states are and House incumbents are generally thereby rendered safer. But in another huge anti-red wave year, Republicans who are usually unconcerned about what voters think, are nervous now. I asked Mike Siegel, who nearly beat McCaul in 2018 and is back to finish the job, why McCaul should be worried. "When Joe Biden is polling close to even in Texas," he said, "that signals doom down the GOP ballot. For years office holders like McCaul relied on the 'straight ticket'-- an option in Texas where voters could press one button to select one party in every partisan race. In this way, the gubernatorial and presidential candidates meant everything, and if you were luckily enough to win the nomination in the right district with a decent candidate at the top of the ticket, you rode in without much effort. Now, in 2020, we no longer have straight ticket voting (the GOP legislature repealed it, in a move they may regret), and Republicans like McCaul are faced with the twin challenges of building name ID while avoiding the albatross of Trump. It’s an impossible quest in TX-10. McCaul is already sounding the alarm, telling his donors this is a 'toss up' race. The cavalry is not coming-- he hasn’t kissed up sufficiently to the White House, so Trump won’t help, but he’s simultaneously too right wing and Trump-compromised (family separation, impeachment, COVID-19) to earn moderate support. It’s a perfect storm and we are ready to take advantage."

Audrey Denney had similar thoughts about her race in rural northeast California, where Oregon, Nevada and California all meet up. She told me that Trump enabler Doug LaMalfa "is actually running a campaign for the first time in his 18 years of holding elected office. He’s feeling the pressure and we’re feeling good!"

After Tuesday confirmed that Cathy Kunkel is the Democratic nominee in West Virginia's least red congressional district she told me that "With Trump's approval down in West Virginia, Alex Mooney may be forced to actually run on his record, instead of relying on the down-ballot effect high Republican turnout for Trump. And his record is not a good one: voting to take away healthcare from tens of thousands of West Virginians in his district by supporting repeal of the Affordable Care Act, voting in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy, and voting against the Families First Coronavirus Relief Act.