Political Soothsayers Are Finally Starting To Read The Tea November Leaves Properly-- Wave Ahoy!

This was a dumb Beltway talking point in February and this headline made me laugh: Republicans sense momentum after impeachment win. Moron talk: "House Republicans believe they are gaining momentum after a terrible week for Democrats and a strong one for President Trump. GOP lawmakers are becoming optimistic they have a chance to pick up seats or even win back the majority in November. Taking back the House would require picking up at least 18 seats and would be a tough climb, but Republicans say the turmoil in the Democratic Party and a strong economy bolstering Trump give them reasons for optimism. Spirits were running high during the House Republican Conference meeting Wednesday morning-- on the heels of Monday’s disastrous Iowa Democratic caucuses and Tuesday night’s State of the Union address and just ahead of Trump’s impeachment acquittal in the Senate-- with some members saying they feel better positioned than they have in recent months. A senior GOP aide who attended the meeting said Rep. Roger Williams (R-TX) told colleagues, 'Let's do what we've been doing, stay on message and we'll get the majority back.'"

It's far more likely that Williams is going to lose his seat to progressive Democrat Julie Oliver than it is that the Republicans will take back the House. In fact, it's far more likely that Williams is going to lose his seat to Oliver than it is that the Republicans won't lose at least a net of another handful of seats. (Please consider helping Julie Oliver beat Roger Williams here.)

Yesterday evening, another Belway stenographer, Chris Cillizza, wrote a post for CNN: How the House is slipping away from Republicans. What is wrong with these people? How hard would it have been to write the headline, "How more House seats are slipping away from Republicans." That might be harder and more challenging for a Beltway stenographer like Cillizza to deal with. What he got from operatives and DCCC and NRCC propaganda departments was that "In the immediate aftermath of President Donald Trump's impeachment and acquittal, Republicans felt very good about their chances of retaking the House majority that they had lost two years earlier. 'I will say that you're going to be speaker of the House because of this impeachment hoax. I really believe it,' Trump told House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy in February. 'And I'm going to work hard on it. I'm going to try and get out to those Trump areas that we won by a lot. And you know, in '18 we didn't win.' On paper, it made sense. [No it didn't.] There are 30 House districts currently held by Democrats that Trump carried in 2016. Win just 20 of those 30 and lose none of their own seats and Republicans are back in control! (Republicans need to net 18 seats to retake the majority.)"

Voters changed their minds because they were sick of Trump. They hate him more now... as well as the Republicans that enable them. So why would they change their minds? Or is Cillizza writing these posts in his sleep? David Wasserman from Cook has another answer that Cillizza used: "Right now, of the 30 Democrats in Trump-won districts, ten lack GOP challengers with more than $250,000 in the bank. And it's going to be nearly impossible to catch up amid a global pandemic."

That's part of Wasserman's broader analysis released this week that makes plain that Republican optimism about their chances of winning back the House this November was deeply off-base.

And not only that! There is now, according to Wasserman, a real chance that Democrats will pick up seats in the House this fall. He writes:

"For the first time this cycle, neither party is a clear favorite to gain House seats this fall. Anything from no net change to a small single-digit gain for either side is possible. That's good news for Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democrats."

The change in the political landscape is due to a variety of factors-- from Joe Biden's emergence as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee to House Democrats' massive fundraising edge over their GOP counterparts.

But there is no question a shift has occurred, and it's very much in Democrats' favor.

The Point: There now exists a realistic possibility that Democrats not only win the White House but also consolidate control in the House and Senate in November. Which would be a very big deal.