How Powerful Will Trump's Reverse Coattails Be In November?

Sunday showed that the early pandemic states are starting to level off. But the states where social distancing hasn't been taken seriously by state and local governments and lunkhead citizens, like the imbeciles in Oklahoma City, and where governors are racing to open up fast... that's where the focus of the pandemic is moving now:

• Tennessee- up 516 cases (1,981 per million, up from Saturday's 1,904)
• Indiana- up 638 cases (3,003 per million, up from Saturday's 2,907)
• Florida- up 615 cases (1,752 per million, up from Saturday's 1,722)
• Texas- up 557 cases (1,137 per million, up from Saturday's 1,117)
• Iowa- up 528 cases (2,927 per million, up from Saturday's 2,759)
• Nebraska up 333 cases (2,971 per million, up from Saturday's 2,796)
• Georgia- up 284 cases (2,779 per million, up from Saturday's 2,751)
• South Dakota- up 43 cases (3,044 per million, up from Saturday's 2,994)

These red state increases come at an awkward time for Republican congressional incumbents. Josh Kraushaar closed his National Journal piece on endangered Republicans keeping distance from Trump with a quote from Billy Piper, a former chief of staff to McConnell: "The good thing about Senate races is they’re big enough to be their own thing. If you work hard enough you can create the circumstances of your own campaign. Good campaigns can win in bad years. Bad campaigns can lose in good years. It’s up to the individual campaign to define their opponent and themselves, regardless of what the overall environment is going to be." Well... that's always been true pre-Trump. But it's very hard for any senator to get away from that tar-baby.

First off, Trump dominates the stage like no other politician ever has. November will be a referendum on him and on his political party of enablers. Second, a Senate race is big enough for Trump to notice if an incumbent doesn't defend him vigorously enough. He won't let it pass by unremarked on. Sunday morning, we looked at a few House races where GOP incumbents are hoping to distance themselves from Trump in a way that independent and moderate voters notice but that Trump and his supporters don't. Senators can't do that. They're either for him or against him. And he makes sure everyone knows that.

Remember, there is not a single Republican senator who can win reelection in November without mega-turnout from the Trumpist base-- and that includes Susan Collins even if she manages to win back some of her old independent supporters.

Kraushaar emphasized that Republicans can’t rely on the same assumptions that drove their pre-pandemic thinking for the last year, which he defines this way:

• Republicans should embrace the president at all costs, even in swing states where his job approval is underwater.
• It’s more important to rally the base than persuade swing suburbanites.
• With Republicans defending most of their Senate seats in Trump territory, simply holding the president’s voters would be adequate to maintain Mitch McConnell’s majority.

GOP campaign operatives are singing a very different tune today: "Republicans should be talking about their work to help their communities in the wake of the pandemic, and avoid referencing Trump’s role in managing the crisis. To win battleground Senate seats that are looking more tenuous [Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, Alabama, maybe even Kentucky], it will be crucial to maintain support from some Trump-skeptical independents. If Trump’s political condition doesn’t improve by the fall, prepare to talk about keeping the Senate as a check against Democratic power, even if it means acknowledging the presidency is likely lost." Imagine Trump's reaction to that.

Let me paint the picture: Democrat Steve Bullock is increasing a tiny lead over Republican Steve Daines in Montana. Daines' allies put up and ad that says with the Democrats in charge of the House and the White House, only the Senate will prevent a socialist takeover or open borders or an untenable debt or whatever nonsense the GOP is running on. Trump finds out about the ad and that Daines hasn't denounced it. Trump, Jr. gets on twitter and instructs the Trumpist true believers that Daines is an enemy of MAGA. Instead of winning by the same 3.5% margin (253,876 to 235,963 votes) that Tester beat Matt Rosendale by. Bullock wins Yellowstone and Chouteau counties, runs up big majorities in Lake, Park, and Gallatin, and drives down Republican majorities in Lincoln and Flathead counties. That would be enough to give Bullock a 6 or 7 point win and give him the coattails to drag Tom Winter over the finish line and give Democrats the 9 seats they need to take over the state House and cut the GOP lead in the state Senate in half. Now... imagine similar scenarios in Iowa, North Carolina and Alaska-- all perfectly reasonable hypotheses. So, not just the end of the line for Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis and Dan Sullivan-- if he even runs-- but also likely defeats for Congress members Steve King (R-IA), Richard Hudson (R-NC), Dan Bishop (R-NC) and Don Young (R-AK).

Trump's reverse coattails in Texas aren't going to be enough to take down Senator John Cornyn, but it watch career-enders in November for Michael McCaul, Chip Roy, Roger Williams and John Carter-- plus open seat red district wins for Sri Kulkarni and Candace Valenzuela, Gina Ortiz Jones.

But some campaigns are starting to experiment with a third way, avoiding polarizing national issues in favor of reminders about their constituent services in a time of crisis. Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is out with a new ad touting her personal work to help her state during the crisis, featuring video of her donating blood and volunteering at a local food bank. Tillis is reminding North Carolinians that he voted for the bipartisan coronavirus aid package. McConnell is promoting his experience working with both Republican and Democratic presidents to pass pivotal legislation, branding himself as an effective Washington insider in turbulent times.

Trump isn’t mentioned at all in the McSally and Tillis ads and is only seen briefly in the one-minute McConnell spot. The senators’ earlier campaign ads made Trump the centerpiece of their campaign messaging.

Even Pence has had to confront this dilemma-- probably daily. Yesterday, the NY Times noted that a governor, "who asked not to be named, said Mr. Pence never betrays what he really thinks about the president’s behavior: 'Multiple times, I say, But Mike, this is just crazy, and sometimes there will be a little pause and I’m waiting for him to say, 'Yes, I know.' But he never does. Instead, Mr. Pence says, 'I understand. Thank you for your input.'"