Democrats Could Wind Up With A Big Senate Majority-- Too Bad Schumer And The DSCC Have It Rigged To Be A Conservative Majority

The media hasn't been talking about another anti-red wave-- nor even the idiotically-named "blue wave." But, take my word for it, even with the venality and incompetence of the Democratic Party establishment, that is exactly what's headed our way. In fact, in a Washington Post piece Seung Min Kim and Mike DeBonis wrote over the weekend-- Republicans Grow Nervous About Losing The Senate Amid Worries Over Trump's Handling Of The Pandemic-- they quoted a Republican Party official saying that "Everyone's fortunes are tied to the economy. It's going to be a tsunami." A tsunami is the next step after a wave. Republicans should be nervous. It isn't Schumer, the DSCC or any particularly talented Democratic candidates who are killing them. It's Donald J. Trump.

The Post's point is far from what people thought about the Senate races just a few months ago. The Republicans are now the underdogs and they "are increasingly nervous they could lose control of the Senate this fall as a potent combination of a cratering economy, President Donald Trump's controversial handling of the pandemic and rising enthusiasm among Democratic voters dims their electoral prospects. In recent weeks, GOP senators have been forced into a difficult political dance as polling shifts in favor of Democrats: Tout their own response to the coronavirus outbreak without overtly distancing themselves from a president whose management of the crisis is under intense scrutiny but who still holds significant sway with Republican voters. 'It is a bleak picture right now all across the map, to be honest with you,' said one Republican strategist closely involved in Senate races who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss concerns within the party. 'This whole conversation is a referendum on Trump, and that is a bad place for Republicans to be.'"

Republicans have privately become alarmed at the situation in key races where they are counting on GOP incumbents such as Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina to hold the line.

Multiple strategists said they believe GOP candidates will recover once the nation-- and the presidential campaign-- returns to a more normal footing, casting the November elections as a contest between Trump and presumed Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Democratic Senate candidates in the most closely watched races also could be benefiting from a lack of scrutiny and negative ads with the nation's attention consumed by the pandemic.

But a return to normalcy ahead of the elections is far from a given as the death toll continues to rise and economic data paints a grim picture, meaning the president's handling of the pandemic could be the determining factor not only for his reelection but for Republicans' ability to hold onto the Senate. In short, as goes Trump, so likely goes the Senate majority.

The emerging consensus of several Republican strategists is that GOP incumbents should be able to hang on in states Trump won in 2016 if the president can hang onto those states himself. That list includes North Carolina, Arizona and Iowa, which Democrats are heavily targeting this cycle.

The flip side for Republicans is that states Trump lost in 2016-- such as Colorado and Maine-- could be out of reach. Many GOP strategists have already written off Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO), barring a major shift, and some have doubts that Collins will be able to continue her trend of faring far better in elections than Republican presidential candidates she has shared the ballot with.

Republicans currently hold a 53-to-47 seat advantage in the Senate.

"The political environment is not as favorable as it was a few months ago," said another Republican, one of a half dozen officials working on Senate races who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly assess the party's outlook.

Of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs this fall, Republicans are defending 23 of them. Strategists from both parties said the key battles for Republicans remain races in North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, Maine and, to a lesser extent, Iowa. Republicans are banking on picking up at least one seat now held by a Democrat-- Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones won a special election in 2017 against a Republican challenger accused of sexual misconduct in the 1970s-- but acknowledge they are playing defense in the vast majority of the marquee races.

Potentially competitive races looming in the second tier of Senate campaigns-- where Republicans are also on the defensive-- could pose an even bigger problem for the GOP if the party is forced to spread resources throughout the country in a difficult political environment.

Both Senate seats are on the ballot in Georgia, a state whose changing demographics are trending in favor of Democrats. In Kansas, Republicans fear that flawed GOP candidate Kris Kobach could again emerge victorious from a primary but lose a statewide race, as he did in the 2018 race for governor.

And Senate Democrats' ability to get popular Montana Gov. Steve Bullock to run against Republican Sen. Steve Daines revived a once-dead race into a closely-watched contest, particularly as Bullock benefits from the wave of political goodwill voters have afforded to state executives during the pandemic.

"It's a good time to be a governor," said Sen. Todd Young (R-IN), who heads Senate Republican's campaign committee, though he vowed Daines would win in November.

A third GOP strategist acknowledged that Colorado, Arizona, Maine and North Carolina had become "incredibly competitive" but said there was little sense yet that Democrats would be able to seriously compete in the next tranche of states that Trump won handily in 2016.

...Republicans warned there are clear obstacles-- none more so than strong Democratic fundraising, and the fear that small-dollar Democratic donors will be more resilient in the economic downturn than high-dollar GOP donors.

Democrats also plan to attack GOP senators for their opposition to the increasingly popular Affordable Care Act, with 2020 marking the first Senate elections where Democrats can target a large swath of Republicans for votes early in the Trump presidency to repeal the health law.

"Democrats have expanded the Senate map and put Mitch McConnell's majority at risk with impressive challengers, record-breaking grass roots fundraising, and a focus on the issues that matter most to voters like defending coverage protections for pre-existing conditions," said Stewart Boss, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

If only! The DSCC has a completely unimpressive roster of challengers, one crap right-of-center, establishment/status quo candidate after another-- John Hickenlooper in Colorado, Sara Gideon in Maine, Cal Cunningham in North Carolina, Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Theresa Greenfield in Iowa, Barbara Bollier (an actual Republican state legislator running as a pretend Democrat) in Kansas, Amy McGrath in Kentucky, lobbyist and party hack Jamie Harrison in South Carolina! They didn't even manage to recruit any candidate to run against Tom Cotton in Arkansas! The only decent candidates they managed to recruit were Mark Kelly in Arizona and Steve Bullock in Montana, neither a Blue America-grade candidate, but each a candidate who won't force voters to hold their noses to mark a ballot for. But it won't even matter in most states. People just want to see the end of Trump's and McConnell's reign of terror and may be willing to vote for any piece of crap to get rid of them.

Normally I wouldn't want to predict a winner in a state that hasn't even had a primary yet to pick a candidate-- like Iowa, Kentucky and Georgia-- but it may not matter. The DSCC is backing the worst possible contenders in most contested primaries and people are so desperate to get rid of GOP incumbents that it may not make any difference. I'd say that if the anti-Trump wave continues building the way it is right now-- and it's more likely to strengthen than weaken-- Democrats will win these red states' seats in the list below. The Blue America 2020 Senate thermometer is on the right and if you're interested in electing progressive Democrats to the Senate, instead of DSCC garbage, please click on it and contribute what you can.

• Alaska
• Arizona
• Colorado
• Georgia (one, possibly both!)
• Iowa (this is the one state where the quality of the DSCC candidate might be bad enough to keep incumbent Joni Ernst in her seat)
• Kansas
• Maine
• Montana
• North Carolina

This is part of a misleading fundraising e-mail from the DSCC that they sent out on Sunday to persuade people to contribute to their efforts to replace Republicans with crappy conservative Democrats: