I See A Huge Anti-Red Wave Forming Up, Preparing To Sweep More Republicans Out Of Congress

On Monday, John Heilemann told the Morning Joe crew "When you have a moment that becomes the fodder for universal late night comedy-- the kind of thing that everybody, even the most apolitical Americans understand-- that's a devastating moment... Even Trump, I think, has finally started to hear from enough Republicans-- 'Dude, you are killin' us. You are killing yourself politically and not only are you killing yourself but you are killing us. We could lose the Senate; we could lose the White House; we could lose it all'... It's a big moment, I think politically, because you see Republicans going 'Wow, we have some big problems here.'"

And notice he didn't even mention the House. The Republicans were never realistic if they thought they would win back the House-- but they were at least talking about it. Now, the only ones who ever even bring it up are the sad sacks at the NRCC whose livelihoods depend on at least pretending they have a shot at some victories. But the chances of the GOP losing another 2 dozen seats are greater than the chances of the Republicans even winning back six seats!

On Monday morning, the NRCC put out a press release that was one in a series of "nothing serious going on here" moments-- McCarthy Adds Candidates to 2020 Young Guns Program. Maybe McCarthy should be considering changing the name of the ill-starred program. Both his co-founders are now gone-- Paul Ryan driven out of Congress by Trump and Eric Cantor defeated by a psychotic teabagger who subsequently lost the R+6 Virginia district to a third-rate Blue Dog. McCarthy has watched the districts around his in California turn blue and he's probably got another 3 cycles before the demographic changes in CA-23 make it untenable for GOP candidates. Instead, McCarthy is throwing millions at trying to win back 3 neighboring seats Republicans are unlikely to ever win again-- CA-21, CA-24 and CA-25, all with second-rate candidates. He immediately put 2 into this cycle's Young Guns: last year's loser David Valadao, and newbie Mike Garcia. Besides the two of them, McCarthy added two other Californians-- Young Kim (CA-39) and Michelle Steel (CA-48)-- as well as three Texans: Wesley Hunt (TX-07), Beth Van Duyne (TX-24) and Genevieve Collins (TX-32).

GOP fundraising hasn't looked great in any of the districts. Valadao (CA-21) was outraised by T.J. Cox $1,953,626 to $1,692,230. Garcia (CA-25) is running in an open seat but the weak Democrat the party shoved down voters' throats, Christy Smith, is tying him in fundraising-- $1.8 million each (although Garcia had to contribute $100,000 of his own cash to stay even with her). One of the Democrats weakest and least electable incumbents, useless New Dem Gil Cisneros, hasn't even started self-funding yet (he spent $9,252,762 to buy the seat in 2018) and he's still running ahead of the GOP's failed 2018 candidate, Young Kim and has over a million dollars more than her in his campaign war chest. CA-48 is the reddest of the California districts they're chasing (PVI is R+4) and the incumbent freshman, Harley Rouda, is another pointless, weak New Dem who should be, on paper, a great target. But, like the others, not with Trump at the top of the ticket. Michelle Steel has raised $2.1 million (although $726,740 came out of her personal bank account) to Rouda's $3 million. Rouda, who used $9,252,762 of his own in 2018 to buy the seat, hasn't done any self-funding at all this cycle.

The 3 Texans are being out-fundraised as well. Wesley Hunt (TX-07) has brought in 2,195,206 against weak Democratic incumbent Lizzie Fletcher's $3,293,441. Genevieve Collins has brought in $1,635,533 ($380,00 self funded) against Colin Allred's 2,936,696. And the open seat in the 24th district shows Democrat Kim Olson outraising Beth Van Duyne $1,223,200 to $1,004,955.

Wonderring how Trump did in these districts that the NRCC decided were its 7 best shots in the U.S.? Trump lost 6 of the 7 districts. The first number is Trump's percentage in 2016 and the second number (in parentheses) is how the GOP candidate did in 2018:

• CA-21-- 39.7% (49.6%)
• CA-25-- 43.6% (45.6%)
• CA-39-- 42.9% (48.4%)
• CA-48-- 46.2% (46.4%)
• TX-07-- 47.1% (47.5%)
• TX-24-- 50.7% (50.6%)
• TX-32-- 46.6% (45.8%)

So next came the second-tier and third candidates the GOP put forward yesterday, a desperate attempt to make it look like the staffers are doing something useful. There are 14 supposedly "on the radar candidates" and 17 not quite-but-maybe-who-knows. The 14 second tier candidates are:

• Tiffany Shedd (AZ-01) vs Blue Dog Tom O'Halleran or Eva Putzova (R+2)
• Leo Valentin (FL-07) vs Blue Dog Stephanie Murphy (even PVI)
• William Figlesthaler (FL-19)-- open seat with 3 NRCC endorsees (R+13)
• Carlos Gimenez (FL-26) vs New Dem Mucarsel-Powell (D+6)
• Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-02), a serial vanity candidate-- open seat (D+1)
• Jeanne Ives (IL-06) vs New Dem Sean Casten (R+2)
• Esther Joy King (IL-17) vs Blue Dog/DCCC chair Cheri Bustos (D+3)
• Sara Hart Weir (KS-03) vs New Dem Sharice Davids; NRCC has backed 2 candidates (R+4)
• Paul Junge (MI-08) vs New Dem Elissa Slotkin (R+4)
• Michelle Fischbach (MN-07)- vs Collin Peterson (R+12)
• Jimmy Crumpacker and Knute Buehler (OR-02)-- open seat (R+11)
• Scott Taylor (VA-02) vs Elaine Luria re-match; 2 NRCC endorsees (R+3)
• Nick Freitas (VA-07) vs Blue Dog Abigail Spanberger (+ 3 other "endorsed "Republican challengers) (R+6)

And the really laughable sad-sacks that the NRCC basically gave showing up pats on the head but who will get no loot and no love.

• Noran Ruden (AZ-02) vs alcoholic New Dem Ann Kirkpatrick (R+1)
• Anna Luna (FL-13) vs Blue Dog Charlie Crist (D+2)
• Byron Donalds and Casey Askar (FL-19)-- open seat (R+13)
• Rich McCormick (GA-07)-- open seat with 3 candidates the NRCC has backed (R+9)
• Beth Henderson (IN-05)-- open seat with 3 candidates the NRCC has backed (R+9)
• Lisa McClain (MI-10)-- open seat with 3 candidates the NRCC has backed (R+13)
• Tyler Kistner (MN-02) vs New Dem Angie Craig (R+9)
• Matt Mayberry and Matt Mowers (NH-01) vs New Dem Chris Pappas (R+2)
• David Richter (NJ-03) vs Andy Kim (R+2)
• Andrew Garbarino and Mike LiPetri (NY-02)-- open seat (R+3)
• Jim Bognet and Earl Granville (PA-08) vs Matt Cartwright (R+1)
• Benito Loyola (VA-02) vs New Dem Elaine Luria and NRCC has also endorsed Scott Taylor for a re-match (R+3)
• Derrick Van Orden (WI-03) vs New Dem Ron Kind (PVI is even)

Most of the Democratic incumbents are dog-shit and the territory is pretty red but with Trump at the top of the ticket, this cycle, Democrats will be heavily favored in what is shaping up to be another strong anti-red wave (that the media morons will soon be calling a Blue Wave). Republicans can take heart. They'll probably win back most of their losses in the 2022 midterms, especially if the Biden administration is as useless and pathetic as I expect it to be.