The Toughest Race For A District Flip I've Seen So Far

In 2018 an old friend of mine from the music business, Dayna Steele, ran for Congress in east Texas. She ran a really good campaign and raised $878,940 with no help on any kind from the DCCC. Many people see TX-36 as a hopelessly red district. Hillary only got 25.2% of the vote and the PVI is a daunting R+26. Dayna-- despite being an admired and popular Houston area celebrity-- didn't do much better than Hillary: 27.4%. The district includes all or part of 9 counties. The only one where Dayna made any inroads was Harris but in the backward rural hell-holes like Hardin, Tyler, Jasper, Chambers and Orange, she might as well not have been on the ballot. These are the percentages Hillary got in those 5 counties:

• Chambers- 17.6%
• Hardin- 12.2%
• Jasper- 19.3%
• Orange- 18.9%
• Tyler- 15.6%

Can you imagine what it must be like living among those people? Yeah... they couldn't imagine living among us either, believe me. That said, I want to tell you a little something about Brandon Rashad Lewis, a former Jasper city councilman and this year's Democratic Party candidate for the TX-36 seat. First the good news: although his website isn't rich in policy, his campaign spokesperson tells me he "believes in environmental stewardship, so he supports the Green New Deal." He also said that "access to healthcare is a challenge in the rural parts of our district, so Rashad has made healthcare a top campaign issue (Medicare-for-all is a component). Rashad believes in the right to privacy, personal freedom, and bodily integrity (Pro-choice)."

I asked his campaign spokesperson some questions and got some detailed responses. I asked about a plan with a pathway to victory-- or even just a plan to expand on Steele's 27%. These were the main points:

Expanding the vote with voter registration drives in low-propensity voting parts of the district beginning in June, as well as by campaigning with other candidates on the ballot, reaching the quarter of the district that is Latino with campaign literature in Spanish, especially in Harris County.

Engaging Republican voters disillusioned with Babin ("Many voters in the area are looking for pragmatic solutions to local issues. Rashad seeks to improve the quality of life in the district with sensible policies. [Flood/Disaster Relief, Access to healthcare [rural emphasis], and economic development.] These are areas where Babin has voted Nay or neglected action.

Building coalitions with local groups and candidates (neighboring districts) that will increase confidence and recognition. "Harris County is where we can build our base and Rashad has built a network of support in his hometown and the nearby surrounding region (Jasper County). Moreover, Rashad is well known in the timber industry. He is reputable and is respected by GOP and Democratic voters. Rashad travels the district frequently for work and is recognized as the working man that is facing Babin."

"Rashad won his city council seat via write-in. He was left off the ballot, so he ran an aggressive campaign to get people to write his name in place of his opponent. Another intangible is Rashad’s grasp of social media. He has focused on building his Campaign Instagram account and now has over 11K followers. We are working to build his Facebook and Twitter to reflect those numbers."

"Rashad is able to connect with voters. He has great oratory skills and is able to capture the attention of a crowd. In Baytown, he received a standing ovation. This is the type of intangible that Babin does not possess and which will improve our chances. We hope to engage Babin in the district in several of the non-partisan forums held in the district."

I noted that there wasn't an FEC report for the 4th quarter so I asked if they had a fundraising plan. They do. "We have a fundraising consultant that is working with us. We are shooting for $1.3M. We also have a budget plan that emphasizes new media. Additionally, Rashad was a latecomer. He filed with the FEC in October and in December with the state party. Though he has fundraised under $5,000; the campaign has remained focused on its infrastructure. We anticipate 70% of donated funds will come within 90 days of the election. Because of that, we are currently working to accept working capital that will help fund us until then." If you want to contribute, you can do it by clicking this link.