Thursday, February 20, 2020

Late Night Horserace

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The Oligarch and The Gangsta

The new Latino Decisions polling released yesterday, like all polling recently, shows Bernie way ahead-- nothingnesses nationally and specifically in Nevada. The first number shows the preference nationally among Hispanics who identify as Democrats and the second number is only for the same cohort in the state of Nevada where candidates have been actively campaigning.
Bernie- 30% nationally, 33% in Nevada
Status Quo Joe- 21% nationally, 22% in Nevada
Mini-Mike- 18% nationally, 6% in Nevada
Elizabeth- 10% nationally, 6% in Nevada
Mayo Pete- 5% nationally, 8% in Nevada
Klobuchar- 2% nationally, 1% in Nevada
Steyer- 1% nationally, 12% in Nevada
They also did head-to-head matchups against Trump, asking who Nevada participants (a plurality of whom consider themselves independents) would vote for if the election were between Trump and each of the specific Democrats:
For Bernie- 80-16% in Nevada
For Mini-Mike- 78-15% in Nevada
For Status Quo Joe- 72-19% in Nevada
For Mayo Pedro- 68-17% in Nevada
For Elizabeth- 63-21% in Nevada
For Klobuchar- 57-24% in Nevada





The Bloomberg campaign-- and the anti-working class media, led by MSNBC-- are running around screaming that it will soon be too late to stop Bernie and then horrible people like Chris Matthews, Rahm Emanuel, Joy Reid, Claire McCaskill, Mimi "The Skin Crawl Lady" Rocah, Chuck Todd, Donnie Deutsch, Jason Johnson and all the #NeverTrump Republicans will have to decide between voting for Bernie or Trump in November. Hahahahahaha/ They do it to the rest of us all the time. Now they deserve it. Bloomberg insists that unless Mayo Pete, Klobuchar and Status Quo Joe meld their now pointless campaigns into his, Bernie is going to amass an insurmountable delegate lead and be unstoppable. Poor Max Boot! Poor Charlie Sykes! Kevin Sheekey, one of the top Mini-Mike strategists was running around rending his garments: "I don’t think many people understand the dire circumstances here... The fact is if the state of this race remains status quo-- with Biden, Pete and Amy in the race on Super Tuesday-- Bernie is likely to open up a delegate lead that seems nearly impossible to overcome." The Bloomberg lifelong war against the working class-- same as Trump's-- has now led him to demand that Status Quo Joe, Klobuchar and Mayo Pete all get out of the race before Super Tuesday.





Cheeky, huh? But not as cheeky as poaching their staffers, fundraisers, donors and supporters. CNBC reported that Bloomie has persuaded top Status Quo Joe bundlers-- mostly the scummiest corruptionists in Democratic politics-- to jump ship. He doesn't even necessarily want their money, just that they cut off Biden and the other candidates.
Several financial executives who have been helping Biden have also started to meet with and reach out to the Bloomberg campaign to get a feel for the operation.

“Bloomberg is running a great campaign, hiring incredible people and building an impressive field operation across the country,” said a Wall Street Biden supporter who recently met with Bloomberg but declined to be named. “Also spending essentially unlimited money and we’re seeing all of that result in an impressive increase in the polls.”

Another investor noted that Biden’s backers are preparing to move toward Bloomberg if the former vice president doesn’t score a dominant win in the Feb. 29 South Carolina primary. Biden has been the polling leader in the state for much of the campaign, and his organization has projected confidence in his strength there. The candidate left New Hampshire early the day of the primary to rally in South Carolina.

“I think everyone will move over after South Carolina,” this lead Biden fundraiser said.
Yeah... "everyone," like in everyone who hates the working class but somehow thinks the Democratic Party belongs to them.


Lots of opportunities for Bernie here!


Philip Bump explained to Washington Post readers how Bernie can mathematically wrap this whole thing up on March 3, despite Bloomberg's billions. There's a 15% threshold candidates need to pass statewide in order to get any votes at all. And that's bad news for candidates who are falling below that level. Let's take the two early states that are left, Nevada and South Carolina and then look at the Super-Tuesday states which have been polled since January 1. I'm only including candidates at 15% and above:

Nevada
Bernie- 26.8%
Biden- 15.1%
South Carolina
Bernie- 23%
Status Quo Joe- 23%
Steyer- 20%
Mayo Pete- 15%
Now let's look at the Super-Tuesday states. Remember, Bloomberg has spent tens of millions of dollars advertising in all these states while most of the other candidates either haven't advertised at all or are just starting this week.

Arkansas- 36 delegates
Bloomberg- 19.6%
Status Quo Joe- 18.5%
Bernie- 16.4%
Mayo Pete- 15.5%
California- 494 delegates
Bernie- 28.7%
Bloomberg- 16.0%
Maine- 32 delegates
Bernie- 23.9%
Bloomberg- 15.6%
Mayo Pete- 15.3%
Massachusetts- 114 delegates
Bernie- 19.7%
Elizabeth- 18.2%
North Carolina- 122 delegates
Bernie- 22.0%
Bloomberg- 20.1%
Status Quo Joe- 19.1%
Oklahoma- 42 delegates
Bloomberg- 18%
Bernie- 17%
Texas- 261 delegates
Bernie- 24.1%
Bloomberg- 20.0%
Status Quo Joe- 17.9%
Utah- 35 delegates
Bernie- 35%
Elizabeth- 19%
Status Quo Joe- 16%
Vermont- 24 delegates
Bernie- 51%
Virgina- 124 delegates
Bernie- 22.4%
Bloomberg- 22.3%
Status Quo Joe-19.1%
So, where, for example, is Colorado? No 2020 polling. Same with Tennessee, Minnesota and Alabama. Bernie's going to get delegates in every single state. No one else is. I suspect that on March 3 and 4th we're going to get a lot of "suspending my campaign" messages. So what's the message here? Oh, that's easy... just look at the numbers: the fucking oligarch is perverting democracy itself, just as Trump has. We have to stop him. Stop Bloomberg and Trump, not Bernie.

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3 Comments:

At 9:37 PM, Blogger sam said...

Damn I find this to be down right optimistic !

 
At 2:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This would be optimistic if the parties would accept the will of the people as legitimate. But the Republicans have long followed the declaration of Paul Weyrich -"We only want OUR people to vote"- with their incessant voter purges and electoral fraud.

The Democrats were thenselves found by a Federal judge to be a private corporation With No Obligation to Follow Any Rules regarding voting rights:

"The court recognized that the DNC treated voters unfairly, but ruled that the DNC is a private corporation; therefore, voters cannot protect their rights by turning to the courts....DNC attorneys assert that the party has every right to favor one candidate or another, despite their party rules that state otherwise because, after all, they are a private corporation and they can change their rules if they want."

I will vote for those Democrats who remember why there is a Democratic Party historically, but I'll be damned if these corrupt Party bastards get to screw me over and tell me to like it.

 
At 7:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

polling continues to show that lefty voters remain dumber than shit. Any true lefty who wants better (not worse a little slower) has only one candidate, really. and that's Bernie.

But even that is pointless because if you get Bernie, what you get above all else is that "grotesquely corrupt" (DWT quote) party. And that means you GET nothing.

The DNC's plan to limit Bernie to < 51% is progressing perfectly. A second ballot where the corporate $uperdelegates can choose is already being planned. The only question will be whether it is pete or mike because nobody else will stick around, nor will they need to.

I'm starting to realize that it'll probably be mike. He'll probably buy the nom from the DNC with a $5 billion pledge for the major $uperpacs.. or some such.

And then I will be waiting with baited breath for DWT's exhortation for all lefty voters to "hold your nose and vote for..." the "republican oligarch" to defeat the republican fuhrer.

democracy sucks when voters are dumber than shit... don't it?

 

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