The Time To Stick A Fork In Biden Is Rapidly Approaching

Biden had some more terrible news at dawn yesterday, or whenever he woke up. His numbers in California have collapsed. California, the state with 494 delegates. The only states with hauls anywhere near California are New York (320), Texas (261), Florida (248), Pennsylvania (210) and Illinois (184). Iowa only has 49 and prospects for win a significant number of them has dimmed considerably for Biden. And New Hampshire has even fewer-- 33, but Status Quo Joe had basically shut down his New Hampshire campaign and written the state off. He's pinning his hopes on the Southern Strategy: low info voters in the Southern states who aren't familiar with the racism that has fueled his career. South Carolina has 63 delegates and Biden feels he can win big there. Change Research put out yet another poll of Iowa likely Democratic caucus goers that shows Status Quo Joe's support dissolving. This one shows Bernie with 27%, Mayo with 19%, Biden with 18%, Elizabeth Warren with 15% and Klobuchar with 10%. Only the "kids" (literally voters under 65) back Bernie. He's winning every age group except 65 and older. Imagine what's going to happen when those voters-- who largely back Biden-- find out that he's spent his entire political career trying to cut Social Security and Medicare!

California has always been strong for Bernie. A private poll this week of San Fernando Valley Democratic primary voters shows Bernie running three times ahead of Biden! The L.A. Times report yesterday is clear: Bernie is "consolidating support from voters on the left, [and] has taken a clear lead in the race for California’s huge trove of Democratic convention delegates... propelled to the top in California by growing support from voters who label themselves 'very liberal'-- a shift that has come largely at the expense of Sen. Elizabeth Warren. That very liberal group makes up about 1 in 3 Democratic primary voters in the state. Along with strong support among Latinos and young voters, backing on the left is enough to give the Vermont senator support from 26% of voters likely to take part in the state’s March 3 Democratic primary."

• Bernie- 26%
• Elizabeth- 20%
• Status Quo Joe- 15%
• Mayo Pete- 7%
• Bloomberg- 6%
• Klobuchar- 5%
• Yang- 4%
• Steyer- 2%

Under state Democratic Party’s rules, the only candidates who can win any delegates are the ones who win 15% statewide or 15% in a congressional district. That eliminates Mayo, Bloomberg, Klobuchar, Yang and Steyer and possibly Biden. He doesn't have to slide much to be out of the running. And, as we've seen in Iowa and New Hampshire, as voters get to know him, his numbers just keep going down-- never up.

Politico's Marc Caputo reported that Biden is now saying he doesn't need New Hampshire and his campaign "has been dark on New Hampshire television since the New Year. He has a smaller presence on the ground compared to his rivals, barely takes questions from voters, and he’s trailing in the polls here." Biden is counting on endorsements from conservative establishment politicians, not seeming to understand that no one cares about what they say. An old Florida amigo of Caputo's Biden SuperPAC head Steve Schale claims Biden is going to lose New Hampshire because the state "is home court for two top-tier candidates-- plus Gov. Patrick-- and the last three times a neighboring state candidate has competed in New Hampshire, they won." All sour grapes, he also whined that New Hampshire is "also a very expensive and inefficient state for communicating, given 80% of state is in the Boston media market." Schale is going to spend the sewer money he's collected from corporations and the very wealthy to try to save Biden in Nevada, which is a state that, if lost, could doom his campaign.

Biden’s fortress, however, is South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary, where he leads big because of strong black support. Schale summed it up this way: “Go to Nevada and South Carolina, play Moneyball on Super Tuesday-- lean in hard on the delegate map. If Bernie can’t start winning African-American voters, it looks a lot like 2016.”

...Sanders’s campaign, however, says Biden’s team is discounting the effect of Sanders picking up momentum if he starts winning early.

“If Biden comes in second in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, and it’s us against him, then he’s still viable,” a Sanders campaign adviser said. “But if he’s third or fourth in Iowa and third or fourth in New Hampshire, no one has ever, ever won the nomination coming out that weak in both those states. And then we go into Nevada and win the first three [early states]. Then what’s his argument? Sure, he’ll win South Carolina. But it’s the Saturday before Super Tuesday so it doesn’t impact things as much. Then you’ll see how weak he is. And he has no money.”

Biden’s campaign has, relative to the other top-tier candidates, struggled with fundraising. Campaign advisers say the campaign has to make tough choices about where to deploy limited resources and constantly assesses where to spend and how much-- suggesting he could shift gears to focus more on New Hampshire going forward.



...The energy level was low on Sunday when former Secretary of State John Kerry held a Biden event in the state’s biggest city, Manchester. Kerry won the city when he carried New Hampshire in the 2004 Democratic presidential primary but only two dozen people showed up, giving the former secretary of state a polite golf clap that lasted about four seconds following his 20-minute speech. One attendee, who said he was not yet a Biden supporter, joked afterward that he had just come for the free coffee.

Even some of Biden's biggest local backers admit he isn't their first choice. Instead, they are looking ahead at South Carolina to see who has both the best chance of winning the nomination and beating President Donald Trump.

Just before endorsing Biden earlier this month, Bill Shaheen, [a clueless, conservative douche bag and] a state party official who is married to Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, lamented that Michael Bennet wasn't doing better in the polls.

"I'm very strongly Michael Bennet-- there's a part of me that believes he's the person that America should choose," Shaheen said in an interview at a Bennet event. "But I also have to rule with my head, not my heart. You know, Bennet's got my heart."