SPOILER: Even If Trump Wins Ohio, Bernie Will Still Beat Him In The Electoral College 348-182

CBS News released their new YouGov poll yesterday. There was a great deal of information but what I found the most important measured the enthusiasm level for the various candidates in Iowa. Remember, a caucus is not a primary. Caucus goers change their minds after arguments from their neighbors. And when initial voting is concluded, anyone who doesn't get 15% is eliminated and their supporters can go vote for someone else on the next ballot. The graphic above, shows the first choices. Who will Amy Klobuchar's and Elizabeth Warren's backers gravitate to when they are eliminated in some of the caucuses? Warren's supporters' second choice is Bernie. Those backing Klobuchar are assumed to be conservative and the assumption is that they will move to Status Quo Joe, likely to be the most prominent conservative left standing after she (as well as Delaney, Bloomberg and Bennet are eliminated). Some, though, may move to Mayo Pete.

CBS News pointed out, correctly, that "It's not just the caucus arrangement that keeps Iowa a fluid race, it's the voters, too: just over a third of those expressing a candidate choice say they've 'definitely' made up their minds. Sanders has the most solidly committed supporters, and this has been true in recent weeks: 48% say they've definitely made up their minds. That's higher than Biden's 27% 'definite' supporters, which is a potential vulnerability for Biden in the final stretch. Another is that his supporters are relatively less enthusiastic than those of other top candidates; fewer than half are."

In other words, Biden's (and Mayo Pete's) supporters aren't really that committed. Both depend on voters over 65 years old who may be very open-minded when they hear arguments about climate and healthcare from Bernie supporters, Status Quo Joe's backer's know he would not make a good president and are the most open to voting for someone else.

Now let's move to the Civiqs polling, also released yesterday. What makes this survey so interesting is the information available on independent voters. Assume 90+% of Republicans are going to vote for Trump and that 90+% of Democrats will vote for whomever the nominee is, even if the nominee is Status Quo Joe. Nationally, Trump is 5 points underwater among independents, his job approval up among 45% and down among 50%.

These are his net approval numbers by state:

• Alabama- 60-37% (+23)
• Alaska- 51-46% (+5)
• Arizona- 46-51% (minus 5)
• Arkansas- 63-34% (+29)
• California- 30-67% (minus 37)
• Colorado- 42-55% (minus 13)
• Connecticut- 37-60% (minus 23)
• Delaware- 41-57% (minus 16)
• Florida- 47-51% (minus 4)
• Georgia- 47-50% (minus 3)
• Hawaii- 28-70% (minus 42)
• Idaho- 63-35% (+28)
• Illinois- 35-63% (minus 28)
• Indiana- 54-43% (+11)
• Iowa- 48-50% (minus 2)
• Kansas- 52-44% (+8)
• Kentucky- 58-38% (+20)
• Louisiana- 56-42% (+14)
• Maine- 38-59% (minus 21)
• Maryland- 29-68% (minus 39)
• Massachusetts- 30-67% (minus 37)
• Michigan- 43-54% (minus 11)
• Minnesota- 42-56% (minus 14)
• Mississippi- 56-42% (+14)
• Missouri- 57-41% (+16)
• Montana- 53-44% (+9)
• Nebraska- 54-43% (+11)
• Nevada- 42-55% (minus 13)
• New Hampshire- 42-55% (minus 13)
• New Jersey- 36-61% (minus 25)
• New Mexico- 44-53% (minus 9)
• New York- 34-63% (minus 29)
• North Carolina- 47-51% (minus 4)
• North Dakota- 65-33% (+32)
• Ohio- 50-47% (+3)
• Oklahoma- 62-34% (+28)
• Oregon- 35-62% (minus 27)
• Pennsylvania- 45-51 (minus 6)
• Rhode Island- 33-65% (minus 32)
• South Carolina- 52-45% (+7)
• South Dakota- 58-39% (+19)
• Tennessee- 57-40% (+17)
• Texas- 50-47 (+3)
• Utah- 52-44% (+8)
• Vermont- 28-69% (minus 41)
• Virginia- 41-57% (minus 16)
• Washington- 34-63% (minus 29)
• West Virginia- 63-33% (+30)
• Wisconsin- 47-51% (minus 4)
• Wyoming- 68-28% (+40)

So let's make some very shaky assumptions:

1- these numbers are correct
2- these numbers are static and won't change during the campaign
3- these favorability numbers will predict the 2020 outcomes

To be totally honest, all those assumptions are more wishful thinking than anything else. But if they were all true-- and they could be-- Trump's electoral vote total would be 182 and the Democrat who faces him would have 348. By way of comparison, these were the electoral vote totals over the last dozen cycles:

2016-- Trump 304, Hillary 227
2012-- Obama 332, Romney 206
2008-- Obama 365, McCain 173
2004-- Bush II 286, Kerry 251
2000-- Bush II 271, Gore 266
1996-- Clinton 379, Dole 159
1992-- Clinton 370, Bush I 168
1988-- Bush I 426, Dukakis 111
1984-- Reagan 525, Mondale 13
1980-- Reagan 480, Carter 49
1976-- Carter 297, Ford 240
1972-- Nixon 520, McGovern 17