So How Many More Seats Will The Democrats Win In Texas Next Year?

John Cornyn and Cristina Ramirez

It’s bizarre predicting who will win congressional seats even before primaries determine who the candidates will be in November. Texas has especially spirited primaries all over the place, starting with the Senate race. Incumbent John Cornyn isn’t especially popular but Texas is still a Republican state and it’s hard to imagine a Democrat beating him-- unless it’s the right Democrat rat with the right strategy and execution… and a nice healthy Democratic wave. Cristina Ramirez might be just the right person to do that. She’s easily the best of the 11 confirmed candidates. How does this sound? “The best way to get people motivated and excited to actually participate in our democracy is by talking about policies that will actually change their lives. I know that because I’ve been fighting for working people in Texas for over a decade. When I was 24, I founded the Workers Defense Project, a labor organization that represents workers, not an easy task in a right to work state like Texas. But even so, I went up against big bosses of the construction industry, and local city councils to advocate for and secure victories for working people. During my tenure, Workers Defense Project recovered almost $1 million in wages stolen from workers, secured paid rest breaks for construction workers and got wage increases for public school teachers. John Cornyn doesn’t represent working people. He’s voted against minimum wage increases, voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and sided with pharmaceutical companies instead of helping to lower prescription drug costs. I, on the other hand, know that it’s not too much to ask, that in the richest country in the world, everyone’s healthcare is covered through a Medicare for All system. I know that a Green New Deal would create millions of jobs while combating climate change.”

OK, now let’s go down all 36 congressional districts, move of which are not yet seriously contestable.

• TX-01- Solid red- Louie Gohmert (PVI is R+25)
• TX-02- Leans red- Dan Crenshaw (R+11)
• TX-03- Likely red- Van Taylor (R+13)
• TX-04- Solid red- John Ratcliffe (R+28)
• TX-05- Solid red- Lance Gooden (R+16)
• TX-06- Leans red- Ron Wright (R+9)
• TX-07- leans slightly blue- Lizzy Fletcher (R+7)- worthless New Dem who has done nothing to deserve reelection and will be in mortal danger in 2022
• TX-08- Solid red- Kevin Brady (R+28)
• TX-09- Solid blue- Al Green (D+29)
• TX-10- Swinging blue- Michael McCaul (R+9)- If Democrats choose Mike Siegel, this is a likely flip; neither of the other two candidates is electable but the DCCC (and EMILY’s List) don’t care if they win the seat. They just want to keep it away from a progressive.
• TX-11- Solid red- Michael Conaway- retiring (R+32)
• TX-12- Solid red- Kay Granger (R+18)
• TX-13- Solid red- Mac Thornberry- retiring (R+33)
• TX-14- Leans red- Randy Weber is- retiring (+12)
• TX-15- Solid blue- Vicente Gonzalez (D+7)
• TX-16- Solid blue- Veronica Escobar (D+17)
• TX-17- Leans red- Bill Flores- retiring (R+12)- local GOP is a mess and fatally flawed crooked Republican Pete Sessions could be vulnerable if he wins the GOP primary
• TX-18- Solid blue- Sheila Jackson Lee (D+27)- she could be in danger in the primary
• TX-19- Solid red- Jodey Arrington (R+27)
• TX-20- Solid blue- Joaquin Castro (D+10)
• TX-21- Toss Up- Chip Roy (R+10)- Wendy Davis could beat Roy if the wave is big enough
• TX-22- Leans red- Pete Olson- retiring (R+10)- very flawed Democratic primary frontrunner
• TX-23- Likely to flip blue- Will Hurd retiring (D+1)- If Gina Jones loses again, perhaps the Democrats will run a Latino in 2022 and win the heavily Hispanic district
• TX-24- Leans slightly red- Kenny Marchant- retiring (R+9)- clusterfuck Democratic primary but Candace Valenzuela looks like the best candidate to flip the seat blue
• TX-25- Leans red- Roger Williams (R+11)- 2 very strong
progressives in the primary
• TX-26- Solid red- Michael Burgess (R+18)
• TX-27- Likley red- Michael Cloud (R+13)
• TX-28- Solid blue- Henry Cellar (R+9)— Cuellar in jeopardy in the primary with strong challenge from Jessica Cisneros
• TX-29- Solid blue- Sylvia Garcia (D+19)
• TX-30- Solid blue- Eddie Bernice Johnson (D+29)
• TX-31- Leans slightly red- John Carter (R+10)- another clusterfuck of a Democratic primary
• TX-32- Leans slightly blue- Collin Allred (R+5)- another worthless New Dem who has done nothing to deserve reelection and will be in mortal danger in 2022
• TX-33- Solid blue- Marc Veasey (D+23)
• TX-34- Solid blue- Filemon Vela (D+10)
• TX-35- Solid blue- Lloyd Doggett (D+15)
• TX-36- Solid red- Brian Babin (R+26)

OK, so aside from the $1,000 on Christmas she gave you to enjoy, granny gave you another $1,000 to help turn Texas more progressive. What to do? What to do? Glad you asked. I would give $250 to Cristina Ramirez’s Senate campaign, $250 to Mike Siegel’s TX-10 campaign, $100 to Candace Valenzuela, $100 to Jessica Cisneros, and $100 to each of the TX-25 candidates, Heidi Sloan and Julie Oliver and maybe light a candle for Wendy Davis, who is absolutely raking in the money and and doesn’t need yours as much as the other candidates. She’s taken in $939,038 already and is sure to get tons from EMILY’s List and the DCCC. Conveniently, that Turning Texas Blue ActBlue thermometer on the right is nice and handly-- whether you have $1,000 to contribute or just $10.