Trump Visits The Land Of Enchantment

Senate candidate Maggie Toulouse Oliver welcomes Trump to New Mexico

"Trump," wrote New Mexico Secretary of State and progressive Senate candidate Maggie Oliver to her supporters, "has brought his campaign of hate to New Mexico in the hopes that he can divide our state and turn it red. We were determined to send Trump a message that his bigotry and hate-fueled politics are not welcome in New Mexico... Trump is the antithesis of New Mexico values. He spreads hate, fear, and division wherever he goes. In New Mexico, we value our vibrant and diverse communities. We embrace our neighbors and our differences. We take care of each other."

New Mexico was a swing state in 2004 when George W. Bush was seeking reelection. It was an extremely close race and Bush beat Kerry there 376,930 (49.84) to 370,942 (49.05%). Since then Obama won with healthy margins both times he ran and even Hillary Clinton managed to win against Trump by about 8 points. The state has been trending blue. Both U.S. senators are Democrats, as are all 3 U.S. congressmembers. The state's PVI is D+3, significantly bluer than Colorado, Virginia, Michigan, Nevada and Minnesota. The governor is a Democrat as are all 5 other elected members of the executive branch, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, state auditor and commissioner of public lands. The state Senate has 26 Democrats and 16 Republicans and the state House has 46 Democrats and 24 Republicans. 2018 was a big Democratic year in New Mexico. Aside from winning the last Republican House seat, U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich was reelected in a 3-way race:

• Martin Heinrich (D)- 376,998 (54.1%)
• Mick Rich (R)- 212,813 (30.5%)
• Gary Johnson (L)- 107,201 (15.4%)

On the same day Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) was elected governor over Rep. Steve Pearce (R) 57.2% to 42.8%. Debra Haaland (D) was elected to replace Grisham with 59.1% and Xochitl Torres Small (D) flipped NM-02 with 50.9%.

That all said, Trump was in Rio Rancho (Sandoval County), north of Albuquerque, for one of his hate rallies yesterday. The county hasn't been especially friendly to Trump. In the 2016 primaries both Hillary and Bernie had significantly more votes than Trump did and in the general Hillary beat Trump 44.8% to 42.1%. Last year Sandoval County was bad news for the GOP. Heinrich beat Rich there 50.9% to 32.1%.Lujan-Grisham beat Pearce 55.1% to 44.9%. It performed as a D+18 county for Haaland and in his part of the county, as a D+16 for Ben Ray Lujan. Why was Trump there? Axios reported Sunday night that the Trump campaign is making a play for the state. They must be enchanted, although they say they basis is the large number of New Mexicans that attended a Trump hate fest in El Paso in February. Sunland Park, New Mexico is a suburb on El Paso and people in Las Cruces looking for a good time make the 45 minute drive down the 10 to El Paso. Both are in Doña Ana County. That and Otero County are in the El Paso media market. Otero is a solid red county and Doña Ana has plenty of backward Republicans in the rural southern parts of the county. There is nothing remarkable of New Mexicans being at an event in El Paso, although a Trump campaign official told Axios that "That was our first glimpse into the idea that there might be something happening."

Reality check: Demographers and pollsters tell Axios it's highly unlikely Trump can win New Mexico's 5 electoral votes.

• The state Latino population is overwhelmingly Democratic.
• Major New Mexico cities are booming and moving left politically, while Republican strongholds are losing their share of the population.
• Trump lost New Mexico in 2016, and his net approval rating has plummeted from +17 when he first took office to -13 as of July. The blue wave hit New Mexico hard in 2018.
• America First-- a prominent pro-Trump group-- told Axios it doesn't have plans at this point to poll in New Mexico.

Trump Spoke In New Mexico For 95 Minutes. How Many Lies Do You Think He Told?

Daniel Dale was counting... and so far he's identified over two dozen. Here are a few:

• He that the Green New Deal proposal would require people to have no more than "a single car," and would prohibit people from driving "more than 162 miles." The Green New Deal resolution does not include any restrictions on the number of cars people can own or how far they can drive.

• Trump repeated his bullshit that a "Google executive," someone who "worked at Google," reported that Google bias may have cost Trump up to 10 million votes in the 2016 election.

• He boasted that he was the one who got the Veterans Choice health care program passed, saying, "They've tried to get that for 45 years. They haven't been able to get it. But I'm good at getting things." The program was created in 2014 in a bill signed by Obama.

• He said of his USMCA trade agreement, "Unions love it." The agreement is generally opposed in its current form by major US unions, who have demanded changes to the text; the president of the AFL-CIO federation says it will be a "disaster for workers" if it is not amended.

• He said, "They wanted a wall in San Diego-- good mayor in San Diego, by the way. They wanted a wall." Another lie he repeats over and over, the way he learned to do by reading Nazi literature; even San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer, a Republican, opposes the wall.

• Trump said, "We will always protect patients with pre-existing conditions. The Republicans will always do that." A whopper of a lie and a blatant attempt to mislead people stupid enough to pay any attention to him. Trump and Republicans, who have tried to pass bills that would have weakened protections for people with pre-existing conditions, are now trying to get the courts to declare Obamacare void, without a plan to replace those pre-existing protections if their lawsuit succeeds.

• He said North Carolina congressional candidate Dan Bishop, who won a special election last week, was down "17 points" before Trump got involved. He made it up. Bishop was up by a couple of points in some polls and down by a couple of polls in others. It was always close. Romney and Trup each won the gerrymandered district by 12 points. Bishop won by 2 points, Trump's toxicity lost him 10 points.

• He said the Mueller investigation cost "$40 million." The final total was $32 million, and the government is expected to recoup about $17 million from former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort as a result of Mueller's convictions.

• He said China is "eating the tariffs" he has imposed on imports of Chinese products. A bevy of economic studies has found that Americans are bearing the overwhelming majority of the tariff costs, and Americans make the actual tariff payments.

• He said his border wall is being built "fast." As of the end of August, zero additional miles had been built during Trump's presidency; 60 miles of replacement barriers had been built. (Trump has argued that these replacement projects should count as his wall.)

• He said the US has the "cleanest air that we've ever had in this country." By several measures, US air was cleaner under Obama than it's been under Trump. Three of the six types of pollutants identified by the Clean Air Act as toxic to human health were more prevalent in the air as of 2018 than they were before Trump took office, according to Environmental Protection Agency data. Additionally, there were more "unhealthy air days" for sensitive groups in 2018 than in 2016.