Foreign Correspondent: Will Trump Bring Peace To Afghanistan? Don’t Hold Your Breath

-by Reese Erlich

Washington, DC is buzzing with talk of troop withdrawals and the impact on peace talks in  Afghanistan. The U.S. may start withdrawing troops within months, the start of what would be a gradual withdrawal of all 14,000 U.S. troops from the country.

Then on Sept. 7, President Trump called off planned secret Washington meetings with the Taliban after an American soldier was a killed in Afghanistan. It was not clear if the Taliban had agreed to attend the meeting, however.

Trump had hoped to claim that he brought peace to Afghanistan sometime prior to the November 2020 presidential elections. In reality, the administration is far from ending the war, let alone providing justice for the Afghan people.

To be fair, any President would have a hard time ending what has become the longest war in U.S. history. Washington was politically defeated in Afghanistan long ago, and no shift in U.S. tactics will change that-- whether it is a troop surge, the renewed training of local soldiers, or a focus on counterterrorism.

The U.S. lost because most Afghans see the USA  as an occupying power. And the Taliban is winning, as seen in the increase of areas under its control and its ability to attack anywhere in the country. On August 2, while the chief U.S. negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad was on Afghan TV, the Taliban set off a massive explosion in the heavily fortified Kabul housing compound where foreign mercenaries live.

Basir Bita, a leader of Afghan Peace Volunteers in Kabul, says the level of fear is increasing in the capital. “Even outside your own home, you don’t know what will happen next,” he tells me in a phone interview. “You have no idea if you will come home alive.”

The U.S. has spent more than $1 trillion on the war in Afghanistan since it began in 2001. Some 139,000 Afghan civilians and combatants have been killed. More than 6,300 U.S. soldiers and contractors have died.

Latest peace talks

The Afghanistan War was a disaster from its inception. Now Washington is trying to clean up the mess by pretending we won.

U.S. negotiators and Taliban leaders have been meeting in Doha, Qatar, since 2018. The U.S. side insists the Taliban not participate in international terrorism and that it negotiate with the Afghan government.

The Taliban has agreed to not allow Afghanistan to be used as a base for international terrorism, but demands that all US troops be withdrawn before a ceasefire can take place, and so far has refused to negotiate with the US-installed President Ashraf Ghani.

U.S. officials have leaked a few details of a proposed peace plan, but stress that Trump hasn’t yet signed off. Within 135 days of signing a peace accord, the US would withdraw 5,400 of its 14,000 troops now in Afghanistan. It would depart from five military bases or give them to the Afghan military. If the Taliban meets US conditions, then all US troops would be withdrawn in 16 months.

It’s not at all clear that Trump will agree with the plan, nor implement it if signed. One faction in the White House wants to leave CIA paramilitary troops in the county “to fight terrorism.” The Afghan Army and police have lost battle after battle, with two provincial capitals temporarily overrun just this week. Will any peace plan be meaningful if U.S. and Afghan troops can't control the country?

Popular opinion

Peace activist Bita calls the talks “complicated.” He favors the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops. But ordinary Afghans are wary of the negotiations that leave them out of the process.

“What will happen to human rights, women’s rights, and the Afghan constitution?” Bita asks. “What will happen to the economy?”

Kathy Kelly, co-coordinator of Voices for Creative Nonviolence, agrees that economic development is a key component to any lasting peace. “Incomes are vital to peace,” she says in a phone interview, shortly before heading back for a short trip to Kabul where she works with grassroots groups.

Right now, Kelly notes, the country's main export is heroin. “Afghans live in  a failed narco state,” she explains. “The vast bulk of U.S. reconstruction aid has gone to counter-narcotics, building Afghan government capacity, and sustaining Afghan police and military. Most Afghans don’t want to join the security forces.”

What should the U.S. do?

In my opinion, Washington should immediately pull out all troops, CIA operatives, and U.S.-contracted mercenaries, and close its bases. NATO-allied troops will quickly follow suit.

Then the U.S. and its allies should commit billions of dollars to rebuild the country by funding neutral, international organizations to provide emergency relief and development aid.

“Reparations should be paid to the Afghan people, not the government,” Kelly adds. Washington should fund only those small and medium sized aid groups who have a proven track record and are not corrupt, she says.

The dire conditions on the ground in Afghanistan are likely to force a U.S. withdrawal from the country. It’s only a matter of when and under what circumstances. I wish I could tell you that the administration in Washington will handle the withdrawal in a way that benefits both countries. But don’t hold your breath.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A Little More (From DWT)

Admiral Joe Sestak, the highest-ranking former military officer to have ever served in Congress, is now running for president. He released a statement yesterday that's worth reading in light of Reese's post, even though it isn't a perspective that Reese or DWT necessarily embraces as policy:

President Trump has said that he has canceled a secret meeting with the Taliban and the President of Afghanistan at Camp David that was set to take place on Sunday-- and he has canceled peace talks. This decision to call off negotiations that could lead to a cessation of hostilities is rash and destroys progress made by our diplomats, moderated by our allies in Qatar. It also endangers our troops and makes it harder to one day withdraw the forces we still have in Afghanistan.

In one month, we will be marking the 18th anniversary of our involvement in that country. We must pull our troops out, but we must not forget the people we will be leaving behind-- especially the women and girls who would suffer so much if a weakened Afghan government were overrun by radical islamist forces. In 2017, I brought over an Afghan all-girl Muslim team to the first global robotics olympics in Washington, D.C., despite President Trump’s Muslim visa ban. What will happen to those girls if we do not reach peace in Afghanistan?