A Biden Nomination Would Be Worse Than Hillary's Was-- At Least She Wasn't Senile And Had Women Behind Her. Biden's Out Of It And He's Got Nothin'
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Biden liked to cultivate an Uncle Joe image that he's largely given up on because of all the fondling of his young "nieces." And he's so senile and out of it that "Grandpa Joe" is far more appropriate now anyway. I'm not commenting on his age-- just his condition. And Biden's condition-- mental deterioration is what Fox and Hate Talk Radio focus on nonstop. It's their antidote to all the talk in main stream media about Trump's dementia and rapidly increasing mental deterioration. Amie Parnes looked at the who's more senile controversy for The Hill yesterday, a couple of days after Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH) told reporters he feels Biden's mental state is declining and that he would lose to Trump if he's the candidate. "I just think Biden is declining. I don’t think he has the energy. You see it almost daily. And I love the guy." This is what Obama was talking about when he warned Biden not to run because of how badly would hurt his reputation. Yesterday, at a New Hampshire forum, he accidentally called Trump "Donald Hump."
Meanwhile, AOC, a former 2016 Bernie volunteer, has worked with Bernie on legislation. She has also been recruited to co-sponsor bills with Elizabeth Warren and the cunning Kamala Harris. Except for Big Money pawns Biden and Mayo Beto-- and the clownish dunce, John Delaney-- she's had encouraging words for all the candidates, including Beto, Booker and Castro.
As Anthony Fisher reminded Democrats Saturday, Biden's return to normalcy bullshit campaign will be seen by many voters as an "it's my turn" campaign and Democratic voters-- unlike Republicans, hate that perspective. The superficial familiarity thing has helped Biden in the pools-- especially with elder and uneducated voters-- but the more people get to know him for real, the less they like him. He started with a 41.4% lead in May and he's now down to 30.1%. "But," wrote Fisher, "there's a danger in running as a continuation of a previous administration, because in the past half-century of presidential elections, the change candidate has beaten the 'familiar' candidate almost every time.
Biden will turn 77 this fall, and the issue of his age has repeatedly resurfaced since he entered the presidential race.It's worth emphasizing that while people say Bernie and Elizabeth Warren are also old, both are in top mental condition and neither-- unlike Trump and Biden (both of whom are face-lift sufferers)-- is suffering from dementia. And grassroots Democrats have a lot more to worry about than "just" Biden's senility. Let's move from the old and feeble to the young and vibrant. Yesterday Axios did a story on AOC's perspective on the 2020 candidates. While Pew;osi is threatening to punish members of Congress who endorse Bernie, AOC (29) told Vogue that she doesn't think Biden would be a "pragmatic" choice. She told them if Biden is the nominee "the cost will make you lose because you will depress turnout as well. And that’s exactly what happened to 2016. We picked the logically fitting candidate, but that candidate did not inspire the turnout that we needed."
President Trump, who is just four years younger than Biden, already has made a number of allusions to Biden’s age, accusing the former vice president just last month of “not playing with a full deck.”
Democrats and Republicans alike say they expect Trump to continue to play the age card, particularly whenever Biden makes a gaffe.
“They’re going to make it all about him not being physically fit for the job,” said Shermichael Singleton, a Republican strategist who briefly worked for the Trump administration. “Republicans will use it to point out that he’s not ready for the job on day one.”
The Drudge Report this week made a banner headline out of a story from the conservative Washington Examiner about a broken blood vessel in Biden’s left eye.
Mainstream media outlets barely mentioned the incident, and the blood in Biden’s eye was hardly noticeable for many people watching the climate summit hosted live by CNN.
But right-wing outlets played Biden’s eye as a major piece of news, foreshadowing attacks likely to come next summer and fall if Biden, the Democratic front-runner, wins his party’s nomination.
The effort would be familiar to anyone who remembered attacks on Hillary Clinton’s age and physical stamina in 2016.
Meanwhile, AOC, a former 2016 Bernie volunteer, has worked with Bernie on legislation. She has also been recruited to co-sponsor bills with Elizabeth Warren and the cunning Kamala Harris. Except for Big Money pawns Biden and Mayo Beto-- and the clownish dunce, John Delaney-- she's had encouraging words for all the candidates, including Beto, Booker and Castro.
As Anthony Fisher reminded Democrats Saturday, Biden's return to normalcy bullshit campaign will be seen by many voters as an "it's my turn" campaign and Democratic voters-- unlike Republicans, hate that perspective. The superficial familiarity thing has helped Biden in the pools-- especially with elder and uneducated voters-- but the more people get to know him for real, the less they like him. He started with a 41.4% lead in May and he's now down to 30.1%. "But," wrote Fisher, "there's a danger in running as a continuation of a previous administration, because in the past half-century of presidential elections, the change candidate has beaten the 'familiar' candidate almost every time.
Incumbent presidents are largely immune from this phenomenon. They get to enjoy the constant visibility and bully pulpit of the most powerful person in the world, and only sagging economies (Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush) or disastrous wars (Lyndon Johnson) seem to fell them in their bids for re-election.The "My turn" candidates who lost-- from 1968 on:
In fact, each of these elections was won by a candidate promising to take the country in a radically different direction, as opposed to hearkening back to a previous administration's path or the unfulfilled promise of a failed primary campaign.
But whether it's a former vice president or the runner-up in the previous election cycle's primary, the candidate who is perceived as running for president because it's "their turn" tends to flame out against a fresher face. It's hard to quantify just why widely-recognized presidential candidates have so much trouble sealing the deal come the general election.
Maybe losing the previous cycle's primary carries an unconscious stigma for voters. Maybe being a vice president brands them "second banana" for the rest of their careers. Maybe too much familiarity is a drag on voter enthusiasm.
Whatever the reasons might be, the results are clear: the "next in line" candidates pretty much always lose against the fresher faced candidate promising to shake up the system.
• Hubert Humphrey (LBJ's VP)Fisher closed his essay by telling readers that "Biden's long career in government is as much a drag on him as a boon. The sharpest jabs against him by members of his own party include his vote for the Iraq War, his staunch support for the 1994 crime bill and other punitive criminal justice policies, and his opposition to busing in the 1970s."
• Jerry Ford (Nixon's VP)
• Walter Mondale (Carter's VP)
• Bob Dole (Ford's running mate)
• Al Gore (Bill Clinton's VP)
• John McCain (familiar as toilet paper)
• Mitt Romney (familiar as McCain)
• Hillary (familiar as McCain and Romney combined).
Labels: 2020 presidential nomination, Joe Biden, senility
8 Comments:
Biden is using teleprompters at his NH candidate events. I've never seen this before, and I've seen a gazillion presidential candidates. Even at small, outside events, there are teleprompters set up for Biden. And even with them, he still veers wildly off topic, like his rambling on about what might have happened if Obama were assassinated after becoming the nominee at an event at Dartmouth. And then there was the event in Keene, NH where he thought he was in Vermont.
Things worth considering on four of the "my turn" candidates.
If Humphrey had a better position on Viet Nam, he probably would have won.
Ford would likely have won if he hadn't pardoned Nixon. In the '70s, Republican voters would likely have embraced Ford as a hero if he'd thrown Nixon to the dogs. And plenty of Democrats would have crossed-over to vote for him as well.
Gore and Hillary both won the popular vote. In Gore's case, we can point out what a crappy candidate he was (and JOE FUCKING LIEBERMAN, for god's sakes!) all day, but Republican shenanigans in Florida (vote suppression along with very suspicious/confusing ballot design) pretty much killed it for him there. Lots of folks dislike Clinton so much that they're pretty willing to overlook the cumulative affects of Republican vote-suppression activity since 2010, Russian interference on social media, and a mainstream press which felt Trump's voluminous negatives meant they were obligated to pretend that Clinton's emails were a genuine issue (thanks, Jim Comey!) - so every week there was a NEW Trump scandal, making people forget the one preceding, while the constant drumbeat on emails helped drive home the message that Clinton had done SOMETHING wrong, even though most people didn't know what exactly it was. I don't care for HRC either, but a raw deal is a raw deal, regardless how much the person on the receiving end seemingly deserves it.
Pew;osi
LOL
typo?
or not?
"If Humphrey had a better position on Viet Nam, he probably would have won."
I disagree. Humphrey buried himself so deeply as LBJ's VP that people forgot all about him. Being pushed on the nation as the pinch hitter for Bobby Kennedy -while understandable considering the circumstance- many people felt as cut out of the process as Bernie supporters were in 2016. Such people felt we had better options than Humphrey, who on paper should have been a good candidate prior to joining LBJ.
"Ford would likely have won if he hadn't pardoned Nixon."
This is exactly why I didn't vote for him since I really didn't like Carter. It didn't help that Ford lied about not running for election when he assumed the Presidency in the first place.
Gore: lost HIS home state, Clinton's home state, and West Virginia. Winning any one of these would have given him the win with a clear margin and Florida wouldn't have mattered. Asking for a full recount instead of playing games with counties would also have helped.
Hillary doesn't merit any further commentary. Neither does tRump.
I think you almost hit the point:
"that’s exactly what happened to 2016. We picked the logically fitting candidate, but that candidate did not inspire the turnout that we needed."
As in '68, what happened in '16 and what the DNC is rigging again this time is a case where voters don't really pick the candidate. The DNC is picking him.
When Lefty voters are denied their favored candidate (Bernie in '16) through a variety of rules and fraud, the turnout in the general SHALL BE DEPRESSED, most notably for those independents that are required to beat a populist demagogue like trump. That's the 'anti-blue' effect I've been ranting about for 2 years at least.
In '68, the balkanized convention finally settled on HHH which made millions of anti-VN-war voters livid. HHH was better than Nixon by miles, but the anti-blue from the same denial of the will of the voters depressed his turnout.
If you want to depress democrap turnout by 20 million, just watch as the DNC shoves biden down our bile-filled throats.
@9:20
Regardless that Gore lost his home state - Florida was rigged against him. We can argue all fucking day as to the stupidity of his legal team choosing targeted recounts in a state whose rules called for a statewide recount and it won't change the ugly fact of tens of thousands of voters being thrown off the rolls compounded with those deliberately confusing ballot designs. THAT'S the fucking point I was making. Gore not fighting a smarter fight during the recount (both Jesse Jackson and BBC reporter Greg Palast were agitating for the vote-suppression angle to be argued publicly) in many ways calls into question EVERYTHING about his presidential run. But he still got fucked and that should not be forgotten. We're not Monday-morning quarterbacking here: we're talking about people deprived of their right to vote. You seem to actually think that if a candidate is more-or-less worthless (like HRC) he or she deserves everything that happens to them. I disagree. Regardless what a worthless sack of shit she is and was, the mountainous shit-slide that engulfed Clinton is virtually unprecedented in modern US politics. And again- DELIBERATE ACTIONS TO RESTRICT THE ABILITY OF PEOPLE OF COLOR TO VOTE IS FUNDAMENTALLY WRONG. This isn't complicated, so try and keep up.
7:36
You obviously missed the media-funded recount of all of the Florida votes. Gore won. But you didn't hear this because of the 9/11 attacks, which conveniently happened on the day the results were released.
Kerry won Ohio in 2004, but lived down to the coward reputation attributed to him by not fighting for a real recount.
How about when Karl Rove was blocked by Anonymous in defrauding Obama in 2012?
Now stop believing Party lies that Biden is electable. He's not.
7:45, good point about Kerry. note that gore also went fetal and gaveled down an electoral college challenge from the CBC. gore was as deeply flawed as $hillbillary and as big a coward as Pelosi.
7:36, absolutely correct, but you did not finish your thought.
We knew about fraud in OH and FL which were obvious. We also had suppression in several other states.
But after that we had obamanation for 8 years and a democrap FDR congress for 2. Among all the things they refused to remedy, making voting ubiquitous, fair and verifiable was maybe #3 (after refusing to prosecute wall street fraud and war criminals who prosecuted arbitrary war and ordered torture).
The democraps LOST twice to fraud and suppression, yet saw no need to fix that? Why? There can be only one answer. And they proved it in 2016 -- they want to goon elections themselves when it amuses them to do so. Not so much to beat republicans... but to prevent the wrong person from winning in their own party.
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