"Texodous" Is A Real Thing Now-- McCaul Doesn't Want Anything To Do With It

"Texodous" isn't in any dictionaries yet; it's just being written about and discussed by talking heads... and it's a hashtag on Twitter. But for Texas Republicans it's frightening real. Texas is hemorrhaging congressional Republicans. Last year the Democrats stumbled into two victories over "entrenched" GOP incumbents. The DCCC added nothing to the equation but Beto's energetic, charismatic Senate campaign-- far more progressive than his actual voting record-- helped Democrats straight down the ballot. A weak stands-for-nothing garden variety Dem, Lizzie Fletcher, ousted John Culberson in Houston 127,959 (52.5%) to 115,642 (47.5%) and a similar stands-for-nothing candidate, Colin Allred, ousted powerful Republican leader Pete Sessions in the Dallas area 144,067 (52.3%) to 126,101 (45.8%).

The otherwise useless DCCC and its allies put over $8,000,000 into Fletcher's race ($6,249,182 of it in negative ads roasting Culberson) and about the same amount into Allred's campaign ($7,750,056 in blistering negative attacks against Sessions). In the Austin to Houston district held by Michael McCaul, the DCCC was in see no evil/hear no evil/say no evil mode and didn't put a nickel into Mike Siegel's race against McCaul. And yet, despite McCaul spending $1,754,122 to Siegel's $481,417, Siegel's progressive grassroots campaign managed to win more votes than Fletcher's stands-for-nothing corporate campaign and tie Allred's stands-for-nothing corporate campaign (and for a fraction of the cost):

• Mike Siegel- 144,034 votes ($3.32 per vote)
• Colin Allred- 144,067 votes ($39.91 per vote, not counting massive outside spending)
• Lizzie Fletcher- 127,959 votes ($47.96 per vote, not counting massive outside spending)

Meanwhile Siegel forced McCaul to spend $11.16 for every vote he got. McCaul wasn't used to having to even campaign for his reelection bids. In 2016 he won 57.3%, 62.2% in 2014 and 60.5% in 2012. Siegel held him down to 51.1%. Alex Rogers' piece for CNN.com yesterday, One Republican's quest to stave off joining the 'Texodus', noted that last year was the worst election for him in his 15 year political career. "McCaul could be forgiven for retiring," wrote Rogers. "In the past four weeks, four of his fellow Texas Republican colleagues have done so-- a political phenomenon nicknamed 'Texodous'-- including two members who represent suburban districts similar to McCaul's. The Democrats flipped the House in 2018, suddenly making life miserable for GOP members now in the minority, and targeted half of the members of Congress in Texas, including him. To win, McCaul has to, for the first time, actually try; His once-safe district stretching from Austin to Houston is changing faster than he expected, threatening to throw him out."

McCaul is far more conservative than the district-- and a die-hard Trump enabler. As chair of the House Homeland Security Committee in 2018, he authored the congressional version of Trump's children in cages policy. Trump is way underwater in TX-10 and Beto beat Ted Cruz in the district last time. Siegel's platform-- Medicare-for-All, the Green New Deal, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, free public colleges, etc. are all opposed by McCaul but popular in the district. McCaul tried blaming Ted Cruz's unpopularity for his bad performance and Cruz's office responded that "McCaul raised more than triple the amount of his Democratic opponent and still 'almost lost.'"

But when faced with fight or flight, McCaul chose the former. He changed his campaign staff, including hiring Corry Bliss, who led the top Republican-affiliated super PAC for House races in 2018, as a general consultant. Last quarter, McCaul claimed a personal fundraising record. His team boasted the earliest field program of any incumbent Republican in America, one it says has already knocked on 10,000 doors. In the past week, McCaul met with local chamber of commerce officials, AARP constituents and local journalists. He toured car dealerships. He led a consortium on how to address human trafficking. And he hit three barbecue joints in three days.

"I decided if I'm going to do this again, I'm going to work it hard, maybe harder than I ever have," McCaul told CNN.

...On Election Night, McCaul was shocked, confident in the polling that showed him winning with about 57% of the vote against Mike Siegel, an attorney for Austin and first-time congressional candidate, rather than the four-point nail biter it was. "Ignorance is bliss," joked McCaul.

...McCaul's actions suggest he knows his previous campaigns were a little listless. He hasn't had to campaign much in the past: He won his first race in 2004 in a newly gerrymandered district by defeating a Libertarian candidate by over 60 points. He won his next seven races by an average of 20. One former McCaul campaign staffer told CNN, "I never saw him knock on a door." Now his campaign sends out photos of him doing it.

In his interview with CNN, McCaul did not mention the name of a potential Democratic opponent; his campaign manager Evan Albertson said that he or she would either be a "Pelosi liberal or AOC extremist."

But at a local Chamber of Commerce event this week, the issues that may illuminate his campaign came into focus-- improving child cancer research, addressing the scourge of human trafficking and touting the benefits of the 2017 tax overhaul.

Siegel told us that "CNN is right to call out McCaul for failing to 'actually try' to meet the voters of the district. He’s been an absentee representative, cashing millions of dollars in corporate PAC contributions while ignoring rural hospital closures, crumbling infrastructure, and specific local needs. His attempt to show engagement (by hiring paid canvassers to drop literature and calling it a 'field campaign') is too little, too late."

McCaul isn't really that interested in Congress. He even admits he thinks he should be Secretary of State instead. Rogers wrote that "Democrats are targeting McCaul for good reason. There are about a thousand new Texans each day, about half of which are babies, about a quarter are domestic migrants, and about a quarter are international migrants... Between 2017 and 2018 four of the top 10 counties with the largest growth in the country were in the Lone Star state, areas that include Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio or its suburbs... In recent years, the populations of Latinos, African Americans and Asians in McCaul's district have boomed. Between 2012 and 2017, Latinos grew from 26% to 29% of the population as over 60,000 moved there or were born... The white population increased but more slowly than other races, and shrunk as a percentage of the district from 58% to 52%."

"Our campaign worked hard to turn this district into a national battleground," said Mike Siegel. "Now, we are ready to finish the job. We are fighting for progressive values and standing up for working people, and showing what it takes to win. Stay tuned for more innovative tactics here in the heart of Texas."

He's the progressive in the race and the more independent-minded on the three primary candidates. The other two, Pritesh Gandhi and Shannon Hutcheson, are just running for the sake of it and don't actually stand for much-- typical DCCC/EMILY's List types. Please consider contributing to Mike's campaign by clicking on the 2020 Take Back Texas thermometer on the right.

Democrats are confident that the mix of Trump at the top of the ticket, fundamental demographic changes and a message centering on health care and protecting the Affordable Care Act will flip the seat.

The Democrats also don't think McCaul is well-known even after winning eight terms in office and call his claims of a reinvigorated field campaign overblown. According to a copy of McCaul's schedule of the past two weeks obtained by CNN, the congressman had one door-knocking event but canceled it. When CNN toured the block, which included a home hoisting a Trump flag out front, a couple potential voters said they didn't recognize McCaul's name, but they would vote for him so long that he was Republican.

Democrats pledge to out-work McCaul since they can never out raise him; He's one of the wealthiest members of Congress. In the stifling August heat one recent evening in Austin, Hutcheson took her two daughters and brother-in-law to knock on dozens of doors. Hutcheson described her pitch as a mother motivated to run by the election of Trump and the desire to finally give women a seat at the table.

"This is a tough thing to do," said Hutcheson. "It is not for the faint of heart, but I'm doing it because I absolutely believe that we have to stand up. We have to stand up against hate. We have to stand up for the working families who aren't being listened to and aren't being represented-- families like the one I grew up in."

She's going to have a lot of catching up if she thinks she can compete with Siegel, although EMILY's List and the DCCC are steering money her way because of her less policy-oriented perspective and her lack of interest in anything remotely progressive.