Biden's Name Recognition Advantage Is All He's Got-- And It Isn't Enough

Bipartisanship by Nancy Ohanian

The poll NBC and the Wall Street Journal released yesterday measured "feelings" towards several politicians. One thing that is super-clear is that Trump's in big trouble. The American voting public doesn't think, at this moment at least, that he deserves a second term. Just 39% of registered voters have positive feelings towards him. 53% have negative feelings for him, and of them, the vast majority have very negative feelings towards him. If that changes between now and election day, it's more likely to change for the worse, not the better.

• Very positive- 28%
• Somewhat positive- 11%
• Somewhat negative- 8%
• Very Negative- 45%

But Trump isn't the only one in trouble with the voters. Biden has cratered with registered voters. In January 2017 his ratings were sky-high. Today, they're underwater. January 2017:

• Very positive- 35%
• Somewhat positive- 21%
• Somewhat negative- 10%
• Very Negative- 12%

August 2019 (the new poll):

• Very positive- 11%
• Somewhat positive- 23%
• Somewhat negative- 16%
• Very Negative- 22%

Two years ago, those numbers made it look like he was someone who should run for president. But, as voters got to know more about him and who he is... everything started to go south. And this is just the beginning. Biden's biggest base of support comes from very elderly, very uneducated voters who aren't paying much attention to the primary coverage yet. They still just think he's something-to-do-with Obama. Wait 'til they find out more about his vile record and what he really is!

One more thing about this poll. Among registered voters, the polling confirms that it is highly improbable that Trump could win a second term:

• Definitely vote for Trump- 29%
• Probably vote for Trump- 11%
• Probably vote for the Democratic candidate- 11%
• Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate- 41%

There are many factors going into the public's dislike-- even loathing-- for Trump (and his regime and his congressional enablers). The uptick in white supremacist domestic terrorism and frequent gun massacres are very much among them... and that should be an extremely potent weapon against virtually all Republican down-ticket candidates running in districts with cities and suburbs:

Maggie Severens, writing for Politico Sunday morning, reported on how Biden's steep drop in popularity is starting to manifest itself among the Democratic grassroots: Joe Biden’s boom and bust online campaign. Keep in mind that according to the RealClearPolitics polling averages, Biden peaked on May 8 at 41.4%. Since then, his popularity has drifted down and now sits at 30.5%. In New Hampshire, the first primary state, the situation is much more dire for Biden. According to the new Gravis poll of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, Biden trails Bernie significantly as Warren bites at his heals.

Severns wrote that "Biden raised $4.6 million online on his first day in the 2020 presidential race, surprising doubters who thought the former vice president couldn’t run a modern campaign. But since then Biden’s online fundraising has tumbled-- looking more like flash-in-the-pan opponent Beto O’Rourke than top-tier rivals like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. More than 60 percent of the $13.2 million Biden has raised online came in the first week of his campaign, which launched in late April, according to a Politico analysis of data from the Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue. While other top candidates spiked early and then gradually raised more money online as the 2020 campaign has carried on, Biden’s pattern is similar to O’Rourke, who roared into the race with millions raised in his first day but has trickled off since then, watching his standing in the polls erode as the people who flocked to his 2018 Texas Senate campaign stop mashing the “donate” button with every email. Unlike O’Rourke, Biden has enjoyed a steady stream of high-dollar, in-person events with big donors to bolster his finances, putting him among the top Democratic fundraisers in 2020. But the online totals are a sign that Biden has not built enthusiastic grassroots support for his presidential campaign, despite his lead in the polls."

Wealthy-- and generally conservative-- Democrats want Biden (or, when he self destructs, Mayo Pete or Kamala), candidates without strong positions either way on much of anything and have shown that they will be happen to serve the interests of this who write the big checks. These are disgusting people who are unfit to be 2020 Democratic candidates. Online donors-- savvier than average voters who aren't paying attention yet-- recognize what Biden is. Take a look at this ActBlue fundraising chart that shows grassroots contributions to Biden's (very, very corporate) campaign:

“Biden has an enthusiasm gap that is making that difficult for him online,” one Democratic digital consultant said after reviewing Biden’s online fundraising.

It points to a hard truth for the 2020 presidential field: Not every politician can win the internet, though all of them are trying.

At the end of June, Biden’s median online daily fundraising, a measure of a run-of-the mill day on the site, was just under $67,000-- above Kamala Harris at $50,000, but below Pete Buttigieg ($186,000), Bernie Sanders ($127,000) and Elizabeth Warren ($75,000), whose online fundraising started slow but crescendoed in the spring and early summer. From the time Biden joined the race to the end of June, Warren’s median online fundraising day brought in nearly $127,000.

“Biden has an enthusiasm gap that is making that difficult for him online,” one Democratic digital consultant said after reviewing Biden’s online fundraising.

It points to a hard truth for the 2020 presidential field: Not every politician can win the internet, though all of them are trying.

Democratic candidates for president are aching for support from online donors who-- with a few taps on a keyboard or smartphone screen-- can move en masse to load candidates’ campaign accounts with tens of millions of dollars. Most of that online money flows to the campaigns through ActBlue, an online donation platform that collects money and passes it to the campaigns.

Bernie and Elizabeth Warren rule that territory-- and for good reason: the Bernie campaign and the Elizabeth Warren campaign are both about what they can do for people, not about the career aspirations of generally disliked politicians. Bernie and Elizabeth are running on policies meant to raise up working families' conditions. Biden, Mayo Pete and Kamala are running on... nothing much at all other than that they're better than Trump-- increasingly recognized as a very low bar. Biden represents a Coolidge-like "return to normalcy" and his people think it's his turn. Pete is basically an insurance policy for the Democratic elites that when Biden stumbles and wrecks his chances they'll still have someone to run against Bernie or Elizabeth. And Kamala... just an identity politics candidate who goes whichever way the wind blows, whichever way her pollster tells her to go.