Who's In? Who's Out? And What About Kansas?

Potential game-changers Kris Kobach and Tom Steyer

For context, in case you already forgot what Justin Amash told Jake Tapper Sunday: the political system is completely broken and dysfunctional. That said, Eric Swalwell decided to keep his House seat rather than keep pursuing a pointless run for the presidency. I bet Rob Bonta is glad he didn't give up his own seat in the state Assembly! Everyone thought Frackenlooper would be the first to bow out, but he probably didn't want to be the first to cut and run. Now he can be second-- not counting Richard Ojeda and Sherrod Brown, who few remember dropped out long ago. (Frackenlooper said he's ready to be a better candidate now; couldn't be a worse one.)

But Swalwell leaving the field doesn't even mean the number of contestants will go down. Billionaire Tom Steyer had an announcement he decided to make today. He's been telling staffers at his two political organizations, Need to Impeach and Next Gen that he's launching today. And, indeed he did. Or maybe he'll back out again. The NY Times reported this morning that Steyer plans to spend $100 million of his own money on his primary bid. Take a look at the announcement video he just released:





Democratic insiders, according to Chris Cadelago, are ready for The Winnowing. South Carolina strategist Mike McCauley: "if anybody is hanging on through Iowa outside the top six, we’re talking about a cabinet tryout or vanity.” By the Wednesday after Super Tuesday, it's not likely that anyone beyond Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala, and, if he hasn't self-destructed yet, Biden will be left standing.

Interviews with more than a half-dozen campaigns-- none of which would go on record-- and with dozens of other operatives, party officials and activists reveal an expectation that the upcoming debate in July will set in motion the initial culling of the 23-candidate field. Candidates who fall flat on the stage a second time, or fail to get traction, will see their finances dry up and be forced to exit. Those who fail to make the September debate-- when the criteria for entry will be even higher than the first two debates-- will be the next to go as their campaigns are denied the necessary oxygen to survive.

Others are expected to retreat and prepare for reelection to their current elected positions after failing to gain traction by summer’s end.

...The pressure on low-performing candidates to bow out is already bubbling up from the grassroots. Democratic voters have repeatedly signaled they’re tiring of the dizzyingly large field: Nearly three quarters of Democratic and independent left-leaning voters told a recent Hill-HarrisX poll that “too many” candidates are running for president.

The Iowa Poll, conducted last month for the Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom, found 47 percent saying they wished several candidates would drop out and another 27 percent saying they hoped that most of the candidates would relinquish their slim hopes.

OK, now let's move to a crucial Senate race-- in Kansas, where Pat Roberts (R), 83, is retiring. Kansas is a very safe red state. The PVI is an unassailable R+13. Trump beat Hillary 671,018 (56.16%) to 427,005 (35.74%). She won just two of the state's 105 counties! There are a dozen Republicans being talked about as potential successors to Roberts and two solid candidates, state Treasurer Jake LaTurner, and former Kansas City Chiefs player and current chairman of the Kansas Turnpike Authority Dave Lindstrom, are already running. But there's a problem: Trumpist neo-Nazi Kris Kobach. Once it was leaked that he would be meeting with staffers to discuss the campaign, he rushed out an announcement that he is indeed running. McConnell, though, made sure the NRSC was ready for him. A spokesperson said, on the record, that "Just last year Kris Kobach ran and lost to a Democrat. Now, he wants to do the same and simultaneously put Pressure Trump's presidency and [the GOP] Senate majority at risk." Harsh welcome!

In 2018 Kobach ran for governor and barely won the primary, edging out mainstream favorite Jeff Colyer by just 343 votes-- 128,832 (40,6%) to 128,489 (40.5%). Although Kobach completely dominated the fascist-oriented rural western part of the state, independents and mainstream Republicans just couldn't go all the way for a Nazi and he lost to Democrat Laura Kelly-- 506,509 (48%) to 453,030 (43%), getting wiped out in population-heavy Wyandotte, Johnson, Douglas and Shawnee counties and losing the biggest county of all, Sedgwick.

McConnell doesn't want Kobach to run again but yesterday Kobach was scheduled to meet with his top supporters in Leavenworth, not to begin a prison term, but to plot a strategy that may work out best for the Democrats. Like the far-right psychopath in Alabama, Roy Moore, Kobach is a better bet to win a Republican primary than a general election. Yesterday, the Kansas City Star reported that "Kobach spoke at the Leavenworth County Republican Party’s annual picnic on Saturday. It was one of his first appearances at a major political event in Kansas since his defeat. His comments focused on his role in an effort to build a border wall with private dollars. Kobach serves as general counsel and as a board member for We Build the Wall, Inc., which has raised more than $24 million for barriers at the U.S.-Mexico border."

Kobach didn’t mention a potential Senate candidacy at the event. But this weekend he and former staffers invited a small group of Kansas Republicans to a Monday afternoon gathering at the Leavenworth Riverfront Community Center.

State Rep. David French, a Lansing Republican, said Sunday he caught wind of the second event during the picnic but was unaware of what Kobach would discuss.

“I don’t think he told anybody what he was coming for. He did talk yesterday at the picnic about his building the wall project. So I don’t know if it’s some kind of a fundraiser for that or what,” French said. “People are speculating that he may be announcing tomorrow. That’s pure speculation as far as I know. I have nothing to verify that.”

Rett Rogers, chair of the Leavenworth County Republican Party, confirmed Kobach plans to have an event in the city on Monday, but he didn’t offer any other details.

“I know he’s having something here tomorrow. I just don’t know what it’s about,” Rogers said.

Two other Kansas Republican sources with direct knowledge of the event, who asked for anonymity to speak about it, confirmed that Kobach has instructed supporters to gather in Leavenworth. The northeast Kansas town has been a stronghold for Kobach in past campaigns.


Kobach did not respond to phone calls Sunday.

A former state GOP chair, he remains popular with a sizable segment of the Kansas Republican primary electorate because of his outspoken advocacy against illegal immigration and his frequent cable news appearances.

But some former Republican allies are skeptical of his ability to avoid the missteps he made as a gubernatorial candidate.

Kobach struggled to raise money and failed to reach out to moderate voters during the general election. GOP strategists have repeatedly blasted his campaign for its disorganization and poor voter turnout strategy.

“With all that Kansas Republicans are facing next cycle, the last thing we need is another Kobach debacle which distracts and divides us. If he cares about the conservative movement the right decision is not to run,” said Jared Suhn, a Republican consultant who oversaw Kobach’s early campaign for governor but quit in the spring of 2018 after disagreements with the candidate.

His entry into the Senate race could also cause national Democrats to steer money into Kansas to flip the open seat, which has been in Republican hands for eight decades but appears more competitive in light of Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s victory in 2018.

The Kansas Republican failed to land a position in Trump’s administration after his demands for access to a private plane and a walk-in privileges to the Oval Office were leaked to the New York Times.

A Kobach candidacy could reignite efforts to recruit Secretary of State Mike Pompeo into the race. Pompeo has repeatedly downplayed his interest in a run, but he remains the first choice for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Groups with ties to McConnell have indicated that they could spend money against Kobach in a primary.

“Kansas Republicans deserve a nominee who can win. Given the result in last year’s gubernatorial race, we’re watching this race closely and will make a decision on our potential involvement when the time comes,” said Jack Pandol, spokesman for the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC with ties to McConnell.