Who Is Most Likely To Knock Himself-- Or Herself-- Out Of Contention Tonight? Biden Or Gillibrand? Fingers Crossed: Both?

Passing The Torch by Nancy Ohanian

The media is trying to stoke what the Washington Post called explosive faceoffs tonight and tomorrow. I guess that's better than when Hearst sank the Maine to start a war with Spain in order to sell newspapers. The media today knows it isn't likely, but what they want most is a brawl between Elizabeth Warren and Bernie. More likely they'll get a brawl-- "a rematch"-- between Status Quo Joe and Kamala tomorrow. "This time," teases the AP, "Harris, the lone black woman in the field, will be joined by another top black candidate, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, who also has been an outspoken critic of Biden. Booker had denounced Biden for his recollections of the “civility” of working in a Senate that included white supremacists and for his leadership on a 1994 crime bill that the New Jersey senator assailed as a mass incarceration agent in the black community."

Biden vs. Harris has quickly become the defining candidate-on-candidate juxtaposition in the early months of the contest.

Although of different sexes, races and generations, the two rivals share the same broad path to the nomination, particularly the broad coalition of white and black voters necessary to win the Southern primaries that dominate the early months of the nominating calendar.

...To be clear, Biden aides say Harris’ broadsides sparked a new aggressiveness and determination for the former vice president, and he’s gone on a policy offensive in recent weeks, most notably on health care.

A proponent of adding a public option to the Affordable Care Act insurance exchanges, Biden almost certainly will try to pin down Harris on her support for Sanders’ “Medicare for All” proposal. Harris, though, has stopped short of Sanders’ explicit call for abolishing private insurance, and she insists that the plan can be paid for without any tax hikes on the middle class.

Biden and Harris will be joined on the stage July 31 by Booker; New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio; Colorado Gov. Michael Bennet; former Obama Cabinet member Julián Castro; New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand; Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard; Washington Gov. Jay Inslee; and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.

Something tells me Tulsi has no intention of being someone who "was also there." And Gillibrand's desperate camp has already leaked that Gillibrand-- who is at 0.5% in the RealClearPolitics polling averages and has nothing to lose-- will attack Biden as a sexist tomorrow. Alexi McCammond and Jonathan Swan for Axios: "They don't want to talk about it, but the struggling Kirsten Gillibrand campaign appears to have spent a lot of time Googling Joe Biden as of late. The New York senator has publicly-- and cryptically-- alluded to unnamed Democratic candidates who "do not believe necessarily that it's a good idea that women work outside the home." The remark, which she's declined to clarify, has generated fervid speculation... [A]n account on the site newspapers.com that appears to be linked to her campaign has been gathering news articles about the former vice president's stance on the child tax credit in the '80s. (The newspaper.com account and related Twitter account appear to have been taken down after we approached the Gillibrand campaign for comment.) The account belongs to somebody called wilcox8405. Gillibrand employs a researcher named Alexandra Wilcox... Wilcox8405 clipped these Biden articles on July 11 and 12, indicating that Gillibrand's team has been preparing this attack on Biden for more than 2 weeks. When we asked Gillibrand's campaign about all of this, spokesperson Meredith Kelly said: 'Kirsten believes we need to have a broader and more intentional conversation about valuing women in this country and even this primary, and she intends to do so in the coming days. Stay tuned.'"

The big picture: Gillibrand appears to be adopting a Kill Biden strategy that's popular among Democrats preparing for the second round of debates in Detroit this week. Several campaigns and strategists told Axios they see an opportunity to damage Biden and boost their own fortunes as Harris did when she hit Biden on desegregation in the first debate.

Gillibrand turned herself into a generally hated figure after her ugly, self-serving attack on Al Franken. She hasn't figured that out yet and it's likely that her attack on Biden-- whether it hurts Biden, falls flat, or actually helps Biden-- will destroy whatever is left of her big waste-of-money campaign. She better hope she doesn't get a strong primary challenger next time her Senate seat is up.

The stakes are high for Status Quo Joe. If he does as bad tonight as he did last time, he'll glide down towards oblivion. If he does even worse than he did in the first debate, it could signal a quick end to a campaign that should have never begun. One Biden staffer said that they "know folks are going to want to take shots. He's fully prepared to talk about all of his record. He’s not going to let his record be mischaracterized." His problem, of course, is that no one is mischaracterizing his record. His record is even worse than anyone is saying. And in the age of Google search and fact-checking agencies, relying on what he's always relied on for his whole career-- lying-- isn't going to work as well as it used to.

Team Todd noted that "it’s unlikely he can afford another rough outing, which would only increase the chatter that he might not be up for the rigors of a general-election fight against President Trump. And if that happens, that could produce maybe the most destabilizing event so far in the 2020 Democratic race, creating openings for several other Dem contenders... [I]f you’re Joe Biden and a Democratic Party that’s anxious about its prospects versus Trump, you can’t have two [bad debate performances] in a row."

Politico was even more brutal is assessing what Biden is facing tonight. Most people don't think he's got what it takes to get out from under what was always inevitable. It's as though his well-paid campaign advisors and consultants are propping up a political corpse just so the pay checks keep flowing. It's really, really disgusting.

Not long after his anemic performance in the first presidential debate, as his poll numbers began to slide, Joe Biden had conversations with nervous donors and personally assured them his campaign was on track.

“People were raising serious questions about his ability to be very aggressive against Trump,” said one person who spoke with Biden.“He’s listening. He seems to be more sure of himself after that first fiasco. I think he realizes now that he screwed up.”

Many Democrats-- including his own donors and admirers-- continue to question whether he’s capable of recovering from a damaging first performance. They wonder whether he can exercise the discipline necessary to execute a debate plan on Wednesday, when several rivals will have an interest in taking him down.

Seldom has a candidate so well-equipped for a debate projected so much uncertainty.

“The big question he has to resolve is if he’s up to this thing, if he’s vigorous and if he’s engaged,” said David Axelrod, a former Obama advisor.

...Biden walked straight into Kamala Harris’ ambush, flailed awkwardly as he attempted to defend his record on busing and civil rights and looked anything but a front-runner.

It served as a vivid reminder of the former vice president’s headstrong ways and bad habits, acquired over decades in office. Sources who have worked to prepare him for debates in past years say he has a propensity for foregoing the advice of professionals and going off-script. It all creates an aura of uncertainty around Biden, a problem for a contender whose candidacy is built around the premise that he is the safe choice among a sprawling field of Democrats.

“It’s not like he’s willfully defiant of it. He just kind of is impulsive, in the moment. I think he thinks he’s grasped onto something glib or clever, and it turns out it’s not a good way to deliver,” said a Democratic consultant who has worked with Obama and Biden but would only speak on the condition of anonymity. “I think it’s grounded in an impulsiveness, it’s just kind of the way he is. He’s always had this issue, [today] it’s compounded by the combination of being just a little bit out of step with the contemporary theme and discussion.”

There was little evidence of the prep work that went into Biden’s first debate appearance-- preparation that drew on the talents of former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm; Anita Dunn, who helped prepare Barack Obama for debates; and Ron Klain, who served as a top debate preparation advisor to presidents Obama and Clinton and nominees Al Gore, John Kerry, and Hillary Clinton.

There was also little evidence of Sheehan’s fingerprints. The veteran debate coach is known for emphasizing the theatrical aspects of the event; how to use body language or hand gestures to project a message of strength, engagement or warmth-- areas within Biden’s comfort zone. Sheehan also focuses on how to avoid political kryptonite and return to safety.

The Democratic consultant, who saw Sheehan in action during sessions preparing Obama to debate Mitt Romney in 2012, said the top debate prepper helps provide a visual guide by drawing a triangle on a board and explaining that each of the corners represents a distinctive safety base of that person’s message. Those are the areas the candidate is to return to in times of doubt or duress.

But Biden didn’t seem to find many safe harbors during the debate. He even abruptly cut himself off at one point, saying: “My time is up.”

It is-- and he should have realized that before he decided to put himself and his ridiculously out-sized repulsive ego ahead of the national interest, not to mention the Democratic Party's. These are not times that call for a Warren G. Harding Back to Normalcy strategy-- not for a campaign and, more important, not for a post-Trump government.

Kamala is up tomorrow but Bernie wasn't thinking about debate stages when he lashed out yesterday at her brand new, Bidenesque, nightmarish, disqualifying excuse for a health plan. "Medicare for All," he wrote, "has the support of a majority of voters and huge parts of the Democratic Party. So it’s no surprise that other candidates for president want to say they also support Medicare for All. Sen. Kamala Harris released a plan today that her campaign calls 'Medicare for All'-- you can call it anything you want, but you can’t call that plan Medicare for All. Her plan is centered around privatizing Medicare, enriching insurance executives and introducing more corporate greed and profiteering into the Medicare system-- and even then, waiting for 10 years before any changes happen. Medicare for All means Medicare for All. Not more private insurance. Not more profits for denying care. And we cannot wait to fix our broken system... Our campaign is rejecting money from health insurance and drug company executives. We don’t want to have the support of people who profit off of our broken healthcare system. And anyone who wants to fix that system must do the same. The time is long overdue to guarantee healthcare to every man, woman and child as a right, not a privilege, under a true Medicare for All system."

At least there can no longer be any confusion about which wing of the Democratic Party Kamala is flapping for, or, at least, which wing she gets her consultants and her ideas from. Anyone who was wondering if she might be OK... now you know.