What Happened In Kentucky Last Night? What Does It Mean For The Rest Of Us?

Andy Beshear and Matt Bevin

First the results. The winners of the primaries were given before the election yesterday. Republican primary voters renominated Governor Matt Bevin, but with just 52% of the vote. The Louisville Courier-Journal reported that "the relatively narrow margin indicated that Bevin's support among Republicans is strained, particularly in Eastern Kentucky."

• Matt Bevin- 136,060 (52.36%)
• Robert Goforth- 101,343 (39.00%)

The Democrats nominated Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear, also as expected.

• Andy Beshear- 149,438 (37.88%)
• Rocky Adkins- 125,970 (31.93%)
• Adam Edelen- 110,159 (27.92%)

Note that not only did Beshear win more votes than Bevin, the total number of Democratic votes (394,490) was significantly more than the total number of Republican votes (259,854).

A couple of weeks ago, people paying attention to the contest for the Kentucky governor's mansion, noted that the only thing Matt Bevin, hoping for reelection in less than 6 months, has just one thing going for him: Trump. Bevin is the least popular governor in the country in his own state and Trump is the least popular president in history. But, unlike Bevin, Trump is still popular in Kentucky. And Bevin sells himself as Trump's boy. Bevin originally beat Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway in 2015 with 511,771 votes (52.5%) to Conway's 426,827 votes (43.8%). But look at this current polling from Morning Consult.

In Kentucky, Trump beat Hillary in a landslide-- 1,202,971 (62.52%) to 628,854 (32.68%). The state has 120 counties and Trump won 118 of them. Today there are only 4 states where Trump has a higher approval than in Kentucky. 53% of Kentucky voters approve of Trump; only 33% approve of Bevin. Trump and Pence will both be campaigning for Bevin this fall. No one doubted Bevin was headed for a primary win yesterday. Even if his approval has cratered among Democrats and independents, 50% of Republicans still approve of his job performance. Trump tweeted out an endorsement yesterday:

Despite a record number of Kentuckians registered to vote (3,421,796), voter turnout was low yesterday. Only 654,344 people voted in the gubernatorial contest.

Andy Beshear is a moderate Democrat, Kentucky's Attorney General and son of Steve Beshear, the state's popular governor prior to Bevin. Former state auditor Adam Edelen was the progressive favorite-- also endorsed this week by the Louisville Courier Journal -- and state House Minority Leader, Rocky Adkins is the anti-Choice conservative in the race. As of May 6, Edelen had spent $2,728,266 to Beshear's $1,870,823 and Adkins' $1,153,071. An Edelen PAC, Kentuckians for a Better Future-- most of whose money came from Edelen's running mate's wealthy family-- spent over a million dollars attacking Beshear.

Bevin drew 3 primary opponents but newly elected state Rep Robert Goforth seemed like the candidate likely to do Bevin the most damage. He ran as a native Kentuckian, constantly pointing out that Bevin is an outsider. "I believe Kentucky deserves a governor who is one of us . . . Our commonwealth needs a chief executive who is a conservative molded not by New England and Wall Street, but by Kentucky and Main Street."

As of May 6, Bevin had spent $752,272 to Goforth's $289,212.

What do we want to read into this? Bevin can be defeated in November, regardless of how much he and Trump are tied together. Bevin's unpopularity with Kentucky voters is comparable with another even more well-known Kentucky Republican, McTurtle. His political demise would be, literally, second in importance, nationally speaking, only to that of Trump himself.