It's Troubling That Bernie And Biden Are Tied In Iowa-- Is Biden's Under The Radar Strategy Working?

In this MSNBC promo-video, Chris Hayes says something worth remembering when you decide who to vote for: "Who will they fight for? What will they fight for? Can they be trusted to do what they say? Everything else is noise." A few days ago, writing for CNN.com, Jill Filipovic asserted that the biggest 2020 mistake the Democrats could make would be to nominate Status Quo Joe. If you don't see how that relates to the Robert Reich video above, consider clicking over to Daily Kos and getting your election coverage there.

As for Filipovic, everyone can agree with her first point: Americans are sick of Trump and want to replace him, even voters who say they are financially better off. "At this point," she wrote, "the election is the left's to lose... The question now facing the Democratic Party is how. Former Vice President Joe Biden has the highest favorable results in the Quinnipiac poll, but at least anecdotally, the voters I've spoken with who support Biden all do so because of some vague concept of 'electability.' They aren't necessarily excited about him, but they think some other imagined voters will like him the best. One of the most dangerous things Democratic and independent voters could do right now is to read the numbers from Quinnipiac (and other recent polls about the 2020 race) and conclude that Joe Biden is the clear and obvious choice to oppose Trump in 2020."

Nominating a milquetoast, ostensibly "safe" candidate may feel like the right decision in such a crucial election. But it may also cost Democrats the White House.

Are voters going to rally en masse for Biden? Is he going to embody the spirit and excitement of a successful campaign? Do voters believe that he has a vision and a plan for America?

Voters are hungry for an alternative to Trump. But that alternative has to hit him where he's weakest. That's why whoever the Democratic nominee is needs to run on a dual message of integrity and opportunity: Return honor to the White House and restore America's damaged reputation the world over; offer a visionary, clear and specific plan for expanding opportunity for every American, scaling back inequality and improving the country. That doesn't mean returning to the pre-Trump days. That means moving forward.

Trump still draws crowds of hardcore fans at his rallies, the same people who love yelling about walls and donning red hats. But a crowd showing up to watch a showman doesn't necessarily mean that showman will win an election. Trump is deeply divisive, and those who were taken in with his message of American strength-- and those, frankly, who were mostly just amused by him-- may have soured on the idea of voting for him ever again.

If a Democrat can capture this tangible need for change and connect with those who feel it-- whether that's the voters who despise Trump or those who could be persuaded that there's a better way forward-- she will win. But the worst thing the left can do right now is what we did in 2016: Read the tea leaves and conclude that the election is in the bag.

2020 could very easily be a big win for Democrats. But complacency, and even reliance on the perceived safest choice, could mean another four years of Trump."

Obviously corporate Dems have a different way of looking at this. Biden's people have a leash and muzzle on him so he's not allowed to say anything at all that isn't in their own script. Frackenlooper, the same kind of garbage candidate, however, has no one controlling what he says. He was on NPR's Morning Edition last Thursday. Taking slam at the candidates who are polling ahead of him-- actually everyone but Wayne Messam is polling had of him-- but really with his own evil eye focused on Bernie, he whined that "if we don't stand up and say that we Democrats don't stand for socialism, we're going to end up reelecting the worst president this country's ever had." He said the party has to be focused on bread-and-butter issues like jobs and then gratuitously slammed programs that create jobs for all Americans. How whole slick shtik made no sense when you look closely at it. Which helps explain why Democratic primary voters don't like him. (Voters in Colorado hate him too-- but, for the most part, for entirely different reasons.) "Certainly we want to address income inequality... But we've also got to recognize to win in Ohio and Michigan and North Carolina and Wisconsin, we're going to have to get more to those kitchen table issues that have to do with somebody's job, or how many jobs they're having to work just to balance a household budget."

Bernie beat Hillary in Michigan and Wisconsin because voters appreciated his bold positions on kitchen table issues. While the Democratic Party in general in writing Ohio off to Trump, Bernie is making it key to his own campaign.

As for Biden, he's leading polls where name-familiarity is what's being measured. In Iowa, though, Democratic voters pride themselves on being discerning and responsible candidate connoisseurs, so as to keep up their first-in-the-nation status. A new poll there, released yesterday by Change Research (this cycle's most worthwhile polling firm), shows Bernie and Biden exactly tied at 24% each:

And by the way, when the pollsters asked Iowa Democrats who are likely to participate in the caucus how they feel about each candidate, this is what they found:

• Frackenlooper

• Very favorable- 2%
• Somewhat favorable- 16%
• Neutral- 40%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 4%
• Very unfavorable- 1%
• Never heard of them- 38%

• Bernie

• Very favorable- 39%
• Somewhat favorable- 32%
• Neutral- 13%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 11%
• Very unfavorable- 5%
• Never heard of them- 0%

• Biden

• Very favorable- 37%
• Somewhat favorable- 32%
• Neutral- 10%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 13%
• Very unfavorable- 9%
• Never heard of them- 0%

OK, so now some of the others who can expect to win delegates:

• Elizabeth Warren

• Very favorable- 40%
• Somewhat favorable- 38%
• Neutral- 13%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 7%
• Very unfavorable- 1%
• Never heard of them- 1%

• Kamala

• Very favorable- 34%
• Somewhat favorable- 36%
• Neutral- 16%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 4%
• Very unfavorable- 3%
• Never heard of them- 7%

• McKensey Pete

• Very favorable- 35%
• Somewhat favorable- 30%
• Neutral- 17%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 5%
• Very unfavorable- 3%
• Never heard of them- 11%

• Beto

• Very favorable- 15%
• Somewhat favorable- 40%
• Neutral- 28%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 9%
• Very unfavorable- 3%
• Never heard of them- 5%

• Cory Booker

• Very favorable- 16%
• Somewhat favorable- 40%
• Neutral- 25%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 7%
• Very unfavorable- 2%
• Never heard of them- 9%

• Amy Klobuchar

• Very favorable- 23%
• Somewhat favorable- 29%
• Neutral- 27%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 8%
• Very unfavorable- 3%
• Never heard of them- 20%

• Julian Castro

• Very favorable- 4%
• Somewhat favorable- 28%
• Neutral- 41%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 3%
• Very unfavorable- 2%
• Never heard of them- 23%

• Gillibrand

• Very favorable- 6%
• Somewhat favorable- 32%
• Neutral- 34%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 9%
• Very unfavorable- 4%
• Never heard of them- 15%

• Tulsi

• Very favorable- 8%
• Somewhat favorable- 16%
• Neutral- 33%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 6%
• Very unfavorable- 5%
• Never heard of them- 31%

• John Delaney

• Very favorable- 2%
• Somewhat favorable- 14%
• Neutral- 41%
• Somewhat unfavorable- 3%
• Very unfavorable- 3%
• Never heard of them- 37%

I didn't include the other 2,000 candidates because none of them had been heard of by enough voters to make the results worth looking at. Now let's take a  look at those findings in another way. Here are the candidates, listed in order of favorability-- very favorable + somewhat favorable combined:

• Elizabeth Warren- 78%
• Bernie- 71%
• Kamala- 70%
• Biden- 69%
• McKensey Pete- 65%
• Cory Booker- 56%
• Beto- 55%
• Amy Klobuchar- 52%
• Gillibrand 38%
• Castro- 32%
• Tulsi- 24%
• Frackenlooper- 18%
• Delaney 16%

Status Quo by Nancy Ohanian