Republicans Lost Both Special Elections For Louisiana State House Seats On Saturday

That backfired... bigly

When Democratic state Rep. Major Thibaut resigned at the end of last year, after being elected president of Pointe Coupee Parish, Republicans counted his seat as a sure pickup. Thibaut was very popular and the GOP hadn't bothered to field candidates to run against him in 2011 and 2015. But the district which contains 4 parishes in the Baton Rouge area-- Iberville, Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge, West Feliciana-- is 58.1% white and 37.3% Black. Even though the district is considered Democrat Party friendly, Trump carried it with 57% and John Kennedy won the U.S. Senate race there with 58%.

The Republicans poured a huge amount of money into the race on behalf of Tammi Fabre, primarily because a win there would have meant capturing the super-majority they need to over ride vetos and thwart Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards. Democratic turnout was better and Jeremy LaCombe, a Blue Dog-type Democrat, was elected with a better than two to one margin-- 68.5% to 31.5%.

The Advocate reported that LaCombe ran on a platform of healthcare and education. It appears to have worked. His positions sound like a rural or suburban southern Democrat-- mostly better than a Republican... but not by all that much. He had out-raised Fabre gigantically but the Republican Party spent for her to even it up. Their ads, like the one up top, desperately tried to nationalize the election and identify her with Trump. It either didn't work or Trump's lustre isn't what the GOP hoped it would be. And maybe all that advertising explains why Black turnout was up-- albeit with no African-American or even a Democrat on the ballot.

The district just to the northeast of HD-18 had an even more shocking result. A Republican-held seat, HD-62, became vacant after Republican state Rep. Kenny Havard won election to serve as president of West Feliciana Parish. Republican Dennis Aucoin was favored to win his seat but on Saturday it was Independent Roy Adams who won-- 2,925 (53.6%) to 2,529 (46.4%). Black turnout was up and white turnout was down-- and Aucoin under-performed among the white voters who did turn out. Adams will be the 4th Independent in the Louisiana legislature. He hasn't indicated which party he will caucus with. Havard had won the district in 2025 against a Democrat 63.4% to 36.6%. Trump beat Hillary there 56.7% to 40.2% so this will be seen as a major loss for the Republicans. Louisiana elections expert John Couvillion explains why the result was consequential for the GOP: