Brexit Indecision Has The U.K. In Turmoil-- General Election On The Horizon?

Brexit by Nancy Ohanian

On Friday, as her Brexit proposal went down to an unprecedented third defeat (by 58 votes) in Parliament, Theresa May didn't resign. Instead she said "This government will continue to press the case for the orderly Brexit that the result of the referendum demands." 34 of her own Conservative members voted against her, including former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, former Conservative Party Leader Iain Duncan Smith, Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, and, of course, the "Honourable Member for the 18th century" Jacob Rees-Mogg. Both Jeremy Corbyn and the leader of the Scottish National Party, Ian Blackford demanded that May call a general election. Meanwhile EU President Donald Tusk called an emergency EU summit in front of looming April 10 departure date.

The two most plausible outcomes are a "no deal" withdrawal-- akin to suicide-- or a second Brexit vote, which may be too sensible for the Conservative Party. Here's how The Guardian sees the possible next steps:

Withdrawal agreement is rejected but Downing Street is unable to indicate a way forward by 12 April

The leaders said they would consider a lengthy extension to article 50 if the withdrawal agreement was rejected at the third time of asking. They said, however, that they would expect “the United Kingdom to indicate a way forward” before 12 April “for consideration by the European council”. If Downing Street is in complete paralysis or it rejects any solution that might emerge from the Commons second session of indicative votes on Monday, then the EU’s leaders will be in a spot. They will likely call a summit on 10 April come what may. The decision will be whether to cut the UK loose, with the expectation that the concomitant no-deal chaos will drag the UK government swiftly back to the negotiating table, or possibly appeal to MPs over the heads of the government. Brussels could offer a lengthy extension with conditions-- and let parliament decide what to do next. EU countries do not want to be on the wrong end of the inevitable blame game. Parliament may look chaotic. But it is inching towards a resolution.

UK Unplugged by Nancy Ohanian

The Commons backs a softer Brexit

If the Commons was to back a permanent customs union in its indicative votes next week, the EU could “within days” revise the political declaration, the non-binding outline of the future relationship, to set the two negotiating teams on that course. The wording will not be detailed. The negotiations over the terms of a customs union will be hard-fought when they come. Labour has said it would want the British government to have a say in EU trade policy in such a situation. This is likely to have a pretty messy collision with reality-- but that is for a later date once the UK is out. In such a scenario, it is still feasible that the withdrawal agreement and political declaration are ratified by parliament within weeks, and the UK leaves the EU by the 22 May.

The Commons backs a second referendum or the prime minister calls a general election

Both of these scenarios would require a lengthy extension beyond elections for the European parliament. At the summit on 10 April, leaders would decide on the length. Any extension to article 50 in this scenario would be no shorter than nine months, taking Britain’s membership of the EU up to 31 December 2019. A full year is far more likely and anything up to 21 months is possible, keeping the UK in the bloc until 2021.