Who's To Blame When Parties Really Get Out Of Hand?

This morning, ABC News and the Washington Post released a new national poll that should serve as a warning for congressional Republicans: voters blame them (and Trump of course) for the shutdown and are very much not buying the national emergency bullshit. And by a wide enough margin to signal it could be electorally relevant. In short, "53% say Trump and the Republicans are mainly at fault, and 29% blame the Democrats in Congress. Thirteen percent say both sides bear equal responsibility for the shutdown."

Electorally, what is most significant is that 53% of independents blame Trump and his congressional enablers, while only 23% of independents blame congressional Democrats. (17% of independents blame both parties equally.) Since most Democrats will vote for Democratic candidates and most Republicans will vote for Republican candidate, it will be these independent or swing voters who will make a difference in 2020. Although, it's also worth keeping mind that though responsibility is assigned largely along party lines, 85% of Democrats mainly blame Trump and the GOP for the government shutdown, fewer Republicans (68%) mainly blame the Democrats in Congress. And even a third of self-identified conservatives say Trump and the congressional Republicans are at fault.

CNN put a poll of their own out this morning too-- same kind of results. 55% blame Trump and the GOP for the shutdown and 32% blame congressional Democrats. 56% oppose a wall, while just 39% favor it. Worst of all for the GOP, Trump's approval rating took a big hit. Only 37% of voters approve of him, while 57% disapprove-- a 5 point higher disapproval in a month.

Laughably, the always-wrong-'til-the-day-after Cook Report predicts only 4 vulnerable House Republicans in 2020. Put a pin in that. We're looking closely at these 50 for starters:

• KS-02- Steve Watkins- 48.1%
• TX-23- Will Hurd- 49.2%
• NY-27- Chris Collins- 49.4%
• GA-07- Rob Woodall- 50.1%
• MI-06- Fred Upton- 50.2%
• MN-01- Jim Hagedorn- 50.2%
• TX-21- Chip Roy- 50.2%
• IA-04- Steve King- 50.4%
• IL-13- Rodney Davis- 50.5%
• TX-31- John Carter- 50.6%
• TX-24- Kenny Marchant- 50.6%
• MN-08- Peter Stauber- 50.8%
• TX-10- Michael McCaul- 50.9%
• Montana- Greg Gianforte- 50.9%
• NE-02- Don Bacon- 51.0%
• KY-06- Andy Barr- 51.0%
• PA-01- Brian Fitzpatrick- 51.3%
• MO-02- Ann Wagner- 51.3%
• NC-02- George Holding- 51.4%
• TX-22- Pete Olson- 51.4%
• PA-10- Scott Perry- 51.4%
• PA-16- Mike Kelly- 51.5%
• NC-13- Ted Budd- 51.6%
• OH-12- Troy Balderson- 51.6%
• CO-03- Scott Tipton- 51.7%
• CA-50- Duncan Hunter- 51.7%
• IL-12- Mike Bost- 51.8%
• OH-01- Steve Chabot- 51.8%
• AR-02- French Hill- 52.1%
• NY-01- Lee Zeldin- 52.5%
• CA-22- Devin Nunes- 52.7%
• TX-02- Dan Crenshaw- 52.8%
• WA-03- Jaime Herrera Beutler- 52.9%
• FL-15- Ross Spano- 53.0%
• NY-24- John Katko- 53.1%
• TX-06- Ron Wright- 53.1%
• NY-02- Peter King- 53.3%
• Alaska- Don Young- 53.3%
• VA-05- Denver Riggleman- 53.3%
• TX-25- Roger Williams- 53.5%
• MI-07- Tim Walberg- 53.8%
• CA-04- Tom McClintock-54.1%
• FL-18- Brian Mast- 54.3%
• TX-03- Van Taylor- 54.3%
• MI-03- Justin Amash- 54.4%
• WI-01- Bryan Steil- 54.6%
• FL-16- Vern Buchanan- 54.6%
• IN-02- Jackie Walorski- 54.8%
• CA-01- Doug LaMalfa- 54.9%

And we've already endorsed several declared progressive candidates in some of these races. Please take look and consider signing up for a monthly contribution to any who strike your fancy. Never too early to get started and build a grassroots network and campaign from the ground up or-- as in the case of Kara Eastman, Mike Siegel and Audrey Denney-- continue building a grassroots network and campaign.

Who's to blame when parties really get out of hand?
Who's to blame when they get poorly planned?
Who's to blame?
Can you pull it back in line?
Can you salvage it in time?
What can you do to save a party?
Who's to blame when situations degenerate?
Disgusting things you'd never anticipate?
People get sick, they play the wrong games
You know, it could ruin your name
Crashers gettin' bombed
Who's to blame?
Can you pull it back in line?
Can you salvage it in time?

It shouldn't be difficult!
Try not to condemn!
Okay, who ordered pizza?
I'll be tactful when making the rounds
Be tactful when making the rounds and maybe
You can save a party gone out of bounds (party gone out of bounds)
Party gone out of bounds (gone out of bounds)
Party gone out of bounds
Gone out of bounds