Wednesday, January 30, 2019

California Has Just 7 Republicans Left In Congress. After Next Year... That Should Fall To 4-- Thanks Latino Voters


Devin Nunes is unlikely to survive the 2020 election

In 2016, 7 California congressional districts voted for Trump over Hillary. Another 7 voted to elect a Republican to Congress, while rejecting Trump. All 7 of the seats that rejected Trump but voted to keep Republicans in Congress flipped to Democrats in 2018. That leaves only 7 Republicans in California's 53 congressional seats, at least 4 of whom-- LaMalfa, McClintock, Nunes and Hunter-- are vulnerable to defeat in 2020. At least part of the reason Democrats did so well in California last year has to do with a massive Latino turnout. Below is a list of the 14 districts the GOP held going into the 2018 elections along with the Latino population in each.
CA-01- Doug LaMalfa (12.4%)
CA-04- Tom McClintock (5.6%)
CA-08- Paul Cook (35.9%)
CA-10- Jeff Denham (40.0%)
CA-21- David Valadao (72.1%)
CA-22- Devin Nunes (45.9%)
CA-23- Kevin McCarthy (35.4%)
CA-25- Steve Knight (37.9%)
CA-39- Ed Royce (34.6%)
CA-42- Ken Calvert (33.2%)
CA-45- Mimi Walters (18.7%)
CA-48- Dana Rohrabacher (20.2%)
CA-49- Darrell Issa (25.7%)
CA-50- Duncan Hunter (29.7%)
On Tuesday, writing for the L.A. Times, Kate Irby reported about 2018 Latino voting patterns in California. [T]he proportion of Latinos voting in the seven California congressional districts that Democrats targeted last year," she wrote, "rose to levels normally seen in presidential elections. Democratic leaders point to President Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and the party’s own get-out-the-vote operation for spurring the heavy turnout." Gracias, Señor Trumpanzee.
“It started with the Trump effect. There was incredible frustration and anger with the Trump administration’s policies and rhetoric among the Latino community,” said Matt Barreto, co-founder of the liberal national polling and research firm Latino Decisions.

“But it takes organizing to turn that anger into votes,” he said, crediting the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other Latino-focused groups such as Mi Familia Vota, Unidos and Voto Latino.

Historically, Latino turnout in midterm elections is much lower than in presidential election years. Latino voters comprised 21 percent of total votes in the 2018 election, up from 15 percent in the 2014 midterm election, according to figures by Political Data Inc. and the UC Davis Center for Regional Change.

The Latino share of the California vote in November was similar to 2016, when Latino’s made up 21 percent of the state’s electorate, and 2012, when Latinos accounted for 19.5 percent of the vote.

Latino turnout numbers were particularly stark in the six districts where the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee invested heavily in voter turnout by purchasing Spanish TV and radio ads and mailers, setting up booths at Latino community events and knocking on doors of identified Latino households to encourage them to vote.

“In 2018 the DCCC made history when we flipped seven districts in California and shattered Republicans’ hold on Orange County,” said Cole Leiter, spokesman for DCCC. “We didn’t win those seats to rent them for two years, and we are already working to ensure their newly elected Representatives win in 2020, and for years to come.”

The DCCC plans to use those results to expand its delegation in California, announcing Monday that it would be targeting Republican Reps. Devin Nunes of Tulare and Duncan Hunter of San Diego in 2020, both members in GOP strongholds of the state who won re-election by less than 5 percentage points.

“If the DCCC can keep up the momentum more seats are attainable in 2020,” Barreto said. “Presidential elections see more young people and minority groups voting, so if they make the same investments those numbers will be even higher.” 
In the 10th Congressional District around Modesto, for example, the DCCC and other Democratic groups bought targeted ads for challenger Josh Harder and canvassed Latino neighborhoods, spending about $7 million for Harder and against Republican Jeff Denham. Some of the party’s Spanish language ads criticized Denham’s votes on health care.

The outreach paid off with the Latino share of the district’s electorate rising to 26 percent, up from 18 percent in 2014, according to data from Political Data Inc. Harder defeated Denham by close to 5 percentage points.

There are two ways to measure turnout-- from the composition of the total vote and from measuring the number of eligible registered voters who actually cast ballots in the election.

In the 10th Congressional District, 58 percent of eligible Latino voters cast ballots in 2018. That’s down from the 67.5 percent share who voted in 2016 but much higher than the 29 percent who voted in 2014.

The differences in those measurements could be a reflection of less white voter participation in the 2018 election and an increase in registered Latino voters. The number of registered Latino voters nationwide has been steadily increasing, according to the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

Those numbers are going to continue to be bad news for Republicans, especially with Trump at the helm of the party, said Virginia Madueño, a former Riverbank mayor and former Democratic congressional candidate. She said she was surprised turnout numbers weren’t even higher.

“You’re definitely going to see higher numbers in 2020,” Madueño said. “As long as Republicans continue to support Trump’s rhetoric, I just don’t see how a Republican can be successful here.”

...This was the first election cycle the DCCC invested in Latino turnout early, in January and February of 2017. Barreto said that’s particularly important to continue this year, as the presidential race will draw money and attention away from congressional races as the cycle continues.

Eric Guerra, a Sacramento city councilman who canvassed in Latino communities in the San Joaguin Valley, agreed.

“Voting is a cultural thing. You have to build up, you can’t just start up a month or two before the election,” Guerra said. “That early investment created a culture. Latino voters have started talking about what partisan politics means for them.”
Asian-Americans also voted overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats in 2018 so it's worth looking at the big Asian populations in the 14 red and once-red districts. Don't forget, 70% of Asian Americans in California voted for Hillary in 2016 (compared to 71% of Latinos who did the same). Latinos made up 31% of the 2016 state electorate while Asian Americans were 12%.
CA-39- 28.1%
CA-45- 20.9%
CA-48- 17.8%
CA-49- 25.7%

Goal ThermometerMeanwhile, it's worth keeping in mind that Trump is likely to drag Republican Party candidates down with him in 2020, even more disastrously than he did in 2018 when he wasn't even on the ticket. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows that 56% of voters say they would "definitely not" vote for Trump. (14% say they would consider voting for him and just 28% say they would definitely vote for him). Significant majorities of independents (59%), women (64%) and suburbanites (56%) rule out supporting Trump for a second term. Blue America is hoping to help candidates who want to turn California bluer and more progressive. We're just getting started with our 2020 electoral project and already have one stellar candidate. Click the California thermometer on the right and consider giving her a hand.

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At 3:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Blue America is hoping to help candidates who want to turn California bluer and more progressive."

This is a good goal, Howie. My unsolicited advice to you is to ensure that "Any Blue Will Do" isn't part of the program. It really doesn't help when you begin complaining about Neo-Dogs you promoted under that motto just a few months after the election.

At 5:14 PM, Blogger Nastarana said...

Dear DWT,

Massive Latino turnout didn't help Deleon in the Senate race. Maybe you had better take a hard look at what happened there.

At 5:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pelosi and difi are not latinos and are not Nazis. But they both have done more everlasting damage for decades than nunes et al could even dream of. they might as well be republicans.

Ask those thousands of former homeowners that were defrauded by mnuchin and who were ignored by kamala harris if they think harris would now make a good democrap president.

if voters loved obamanation, who normalized war and torture and bank fraud, they'll probably love harris. If both were republicans, they'd be more honest politicians.

At 6:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

yeah. you don't need to elect actual republicans if you elect the worst possible democraps.

If your goal is good people and not just the label, unless you include Pelosi's seat in your list, it's incomplete.

At 1:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"bluer and more progressive" is a contradiction.

bluer means Pelosi with the gavel and despotic power. It COULD (hypothetically) mean scummer as majority leader and despotic power.

those things are THE OPPOSITE of progressive.

of course, lefty voters lack the intellectual potential to ken this.

At 4:31 AM, Blogger nick middleton said...

We've successfully transitioned from the simple energy markets of the 80's to the complex, automated markets of 2018 and beyond. energy jobs


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