Which Party Will Turn Out Its Base? And What Will Independents Do?

You know what this baby Nazi grew up to be, right?

I feel like a tape: Republicans generally vote for Republicans and Democrats generally vote for Republicans. That's why, in so many districts-- including ALL the battleground districts-- independents decide the outcome. And you know who independents do not like? Right-- Trump. Glen Borger is a top GOP pollster and he sees it the same way I do:

Trump may be too dense to understand that, but, believe me, there are operatives around him who do-- and who read and grok what Amy Walter wrote for Cook yesterday about the end of the cycle's added uncertainty and chaos spurred by Señor Trumpanzee in the waning hours of the campaign. "Every midterm is about the sitting president," she wrote, "even ones who are more traditional and less unorthodox than the one currently sitting at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The better a president’s approval ratings, the better his party does in the midterms. The weaker his ratings, the more losses his party suffers. This president has always wanted the election to be about him. And, in these final hours he's made sure to put the focus back on himself. He's ramped up the rhetoric on illegal immigration, ordered the military to the southern border and floated the idea about doing away with birthright citizenship with an executive order. But, what's also been true about this president, is that the less he's front and center, the better his job approval rating." Republicans up for reelection and party strategists are flipping out because he's thrusting his biggest weaknesses-- his temperament, his racism, his mendacity, his over-heated rhetoric and undisciplined tweeting-- into everyone face and Walter reported that GOP strategists have told her that they're "seeing slippage in Trump’s approval rating similar to the drop we saw this week in Gallup’s tracker (Trump dropped from 44 percent to 40 percent). This is why many of them are more worried about big losses in the House than they were just a week or ten days ago."

What creates wave elections is usually a big differential in turn-out. One party turns out. The other stays home. And, as such, the winning party picks up seats that they would never have been able to capture at a time of ‘normal’ turnout.

This year is different. Democratic enthusiasm is sky high. But, Republicans are energized too. The so-called ‘enthusiasm gap’ in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll went from Democrats +12 for most of 2018 to a smaller D+4 lead in October.

...Of course, intent to vote and actually voting are two different things. Just because Trump has retained the loyalty of his base doesn’t mean that they are also committed to showing up to vote. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found Democrats more intensely negative about Trump (79 percent) than Republicans are intensely positive (65 percent).

For Democrats, the question is whether their least reliable mid-term voters-- young voters and voters of color-- show up. The early vote suggests they will, but many Democrats who are tracking this on the ground remain skeptical.

Intensity can also be measured by who has the most financial fire-power. On this score, Democrats are also dominating. A Republican source showed me the amount of money spent since July 1 on advertising in the most competitive 75+ House races. Democratic candidates have outspent GOP candidates almost 2-1 ($163M to $88M). And, the GOP outside groups haven’t been able to fill in the gaps. The three biggest GOP outside group funders-- the Paul Ryan affiliated Congressional Leadership Fund, the NRCC independent expenditure (IE) and Trump SuperPAC, America First, have spent a combined $174.5M. But, the three biggest Democratic groups: the DCCC IE, House Majority PAC and the Michael Bloomberg SuperPAC Independence USA are not far behind at $156.6M.

Polarization Means Independents More Important Than Ever

The most recent polling suggests that Republicans haven’t ‘solved’ their independent voter problem. The Marist/PBS poll showed Democrats leading among independents on the generic ballot by 10 points. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats leading the generic by 14 points. This is in line with the last three midterm wave elections (2006, 2010, and 2014), in which the winning party carried independents by 12 to 19 points.

How are the two parties trying to woo these independents in the closing days of the campaign? For Republicans, their message is focused almost exclusively on three things: Nancy Pelosi, taxes and ‘government-run/socialized health care.” Why? Among independent voters (according to the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey), Nancy Pelosi is 13 points more unpopular (-33) than Trump (-20).

For Democrats, it’s all about health care (the second most important issue to these voters in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll) and the GOP incumbent’s attachment to ‘special interests” (‘changing how things work in Washington is another top issue for these voters). We are also seeing a number of closing ads from candidates that feature their commitment to solving problems (i.e., I’m not going to be a part of the partisan food fight in DC). It also serves as a contrast to the divisive language the president is using in these final days.

The racist, xenophobic, inflammatory new Trump ad isn't going to help with independents-- nor with mainstream conservatives. CNN termed it "the most racially charged national political ad in 30 years... the most extreme step yet in the most inflammatory closing argument of any campaign in recent memory." Opposite of "moderate" in every way. White nationalism isn't working for him either, at least not with independents or many mainstream Republicans. The NY Times reported Monday that "If the 2016 election hinged in large part on a rightward shift among working-class whites who deserted Democrats in the presidential race, Tuesday’s House election may turn on an equally significant and opposite force: a generational break with Republicanism among educated, wealthier whites-- especially women-- who generally like the party’s pro-business policies but recoil from strident, divisive language on race and gender. Rather than seeking to coax voters like these back into the Republican coalition, Mr. Trump appears to have all but written them off, spending the final days of the campaign delivering a scorching message about preoccupations like birthright citizenship and a migrant 'invasion' from Mexico that these voters see through as alarmist." That kind of stuff is part of what got Bolger flipping out yesterday.

Writing for the Washington Post, Glen Balz and Scott Clement reported on a new Schar School poll of likely voters in 69 battleground congressional districts. The poll found 50% of likely voters in those districts (combined; they don't break them down by district, wasting time instead writing about their murdered colleague, Khashoggi who will not determine a single vote anywhere) support the Democrats and 46% support the Democrat. Keep in mind that only 6 of the 69 seats are currently in Democratic hands, meaning that 63 Republican seats were being polled-- and the Democratic candidate was still leading in the aggregate.

Turnout remains a critical factor in next Tuesday’s balloting, and given past patterns, Democratic turnout is at greater risk of falling short of what the candidates in competitive races might need to win. The party’s current level of support in the poll of battleground districts is fueled by a 21-point advantage among voters under age 40, a 21-point advantage among independents who lean toward neither party and a 40-point advantage among nonwhite voters.

These groups have turned out at low rates in recent midterm elections. In 2014, 36 percent of eligible African Americans voted, along with 21 percent of Hispanics and 16 percent of people under age 30, according to the United States Elections Project. At the same time, 41 percent of whites cast ballots. And while some voters in these groups express heightened enthusiasm this year, it is unclear how much the electorate’s makeup will shift from previous years. Overall, voters who did not turn out in the 2014 midterms favor Democrats by 55 percent to 42 percent, while those who did vote split 49 percent to 48 percent in Republicans’ favor.

I'm not including this photo (above) of these people because they are early voters-- although each one of them did vote early-- but because they are bus drivers who have been bringing their neighbors to the early voting location in Racine all week. One of the top Wisconsin Democratic operatives told me today that early voting in Racine is higher than it was in the 2016 presidential election and "probably higher than it has ever been. Our voters flooded into early voting places all week giving incredible head starts to Tony [Evers], Tammy [Baldwin] and Randy [Bryce] and to our down-ballot candidates... I've never seen anything like this before-- no one has-- and I've been doing this longer than most of these people have been alive."

We're hearing that Democratic turnout in WI-01 blue bastions-- Kenosha and Janesville particularly-- are even higher than they are in Racine. There were immense lines to get into city clerk's offices to vote-- some wrapping around buildings, as it did in Racine. I've been hearing identical reports from Austin, Texas and from Atlanta, Georgia, where Democrats-- particularly the ones the media says are unlikely to vote (millennials and people of color)-- are charged up and prepared to wait on long lines as if at the end of the line they could smack Trump across his sneering face.