You Gotta Back Claire McCaskill Because Otherwise Trump Will Eat Us... But Do It With Eyes Wide Open

Missouri used to be a swing state. It used to be called a bellwether, in fact. But that was a long time ago. The state went for FDR all 4 times he ran and then followed by voting for Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Adlai Stevenson, JFK. LBJ. Nixon twice, Jimmy Carter, Reagan twice and... somewhere in those Regan years, they started swinging towards the dark side for real. Now they're a red state. The PVI is R+9, same as Indiana and alaska, worse than South Carolina or Texas. McCain beat Obama 1,445,814 (49.43%) to 1,441,911 (49.29) and so did Romney-- 1,482,440 (53.76%) to 1,223,796 (44.38%). Hillary didn't even bother and Trump crushed her 1,594,511 (56.38%) to 1,071,06 (37.87%).

Of the 8 congressional seats, only 2 are Democrats-- St Louis and Kansas City. The state legislature is a nightmare-- just 47 Democrats in the 163 person state House and just 10 Democrats in the 34-member state Senate. The Governor, Lt. Gov, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer are all Republicans.

And then there's Claire McCaskill, one of the most conservative members of the U.S. Senate. ProgressivePunch rates her a "D" and gives her a 67.29 lifetime crucial vote score. The only worse voters among Democrats are Doug Jones (AL), Joe Manchin (WV), Heidi Heitkamp (ND) and Joe Donnelly (IN). Heitkamp is likely to lose her seat November 6. Will McCaskill? The polling averages are never outside the margin of error. FiveThirtyEight calls the state a toss-up but forecasts an overly optimistic 59-41% advantage for McCaskill-- a 3 in 5 chance. I don't see it.

As of the September 30 FEC reporting deadline, she had raised $30,140,107 to Josh Hawley's $8,487,725. But Republican SuperPACs had spent $33,086,114 attacking her (compared to Democratic SuperPACs' $21,274,010 against Hawley (and $4,396,811 in favor of McCaskill. One of the radio ads she's running with that money, might help her win. But it's a repulsive ad-- and tells Democrats a lot about who she is. She wants voters to know she's "not one of those crazy Democrats." You may want to back her anyway-- TRUMP-- but do so with your eyes wide open:

Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill's campaign is trying to persuade Missouri voters that she is not "one of those crazy Democrats," with a radio ad airing during the final stretch of her heated re-election fight.

The ad, which has been on air in mid-Missouri for roughly the past week, is part of McCaskill's closing argument in one of the country's most closely watched Senate races. As a Democrat in a state that backed President Donald Trump by double digits in 2016, McCaskill has touted her moderate credentials and urged voters to look at her accomplishments, not her party ID.

McCaskill's campaign appears to be doubling down on that message in the campaign's final days. In a new television ad released Tuesday by McCaskill's campaign, featuring veterans who support McCaskill, one man says of the incumbent senator, "you don't have to like her," before pushing back on Republican lines of attack and praising her work in the Senate.

The radio ad takes that message a step further, however, attempting to differentiate McCaskill from unnamed "crazy Democrats."

The ad features two middle-aged men discussing the Senate race between McCaskill and state Attorney General Josh Hawley, a Republican, whom the narrators describe as "a man in a hurry."

"And hasn't Hawley been caught hanging at the gym and out buying wine during work hours?" one man asks, referring to photos that surfaced of Hawley earlier in the campaign.

The men then turn to McCaskill, with one conceding, "I don't always agree with Claire McCaskill."

"But she works hard, fighting against those tariffs, doing all those town halls," the man adds. "Claire's not afraid to stand up against her own party."

"Yep," the second man chimes in, "and Claire's not one of those crazy Democrats. She works right in the middle and finds compromise."

The ad appears designed to win over skeptical Trump voters, whose support McCaskill will need to best Hawley. But the phrase "crazy Democrats" could alienate some voters in McCaskill's own party at a moment when she is counting on their enthusiasm.

State Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal, a Democrat whose district includes Ferguson, told CNN she believes the ad could refer to African-American voters in the state's cities, among other subsets of the Democratic base.

McCaskill "is calling her base in the urban areas crazy Democrats," Chappelle-Nadal said, "and she's relying on those so-called crazy Democrats to make sure she wins."

McCaskill last year called on Chappelle-Nadal to resign after she expressed hope that Trump would be assassinated. Chappelle-Nadal later removed the post and apologized but refused to step down.

Chappelle-Nadal decided previously that she plans to write in a candidate rather than vote for McCaskill, who Chappelle-Nadal says has been "very disappointing."

A spokesperson for McCaskill's campaign did not respond to a request for comment regarding the ad.

Claire & Maria

Right-wingers are, of course, using McCaskill's messaging to attack other Democrats and advance their crackpot messaging. "Who is the McCaskill campaign talking about? Which Democrats are 'crazy?' Could it be Rep. Maxine Waters D-CA) who has called for mobs to harass Republicans? Is it House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) who said 'so be it' if Americans suffer 'collateral damage' from Democratic policies? Is it her Senate colleague Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) who disgraces the 'world’s greatest deliberative body' by screaming and grandstanding so he can run for president? Or does McCaskill mean Democrats pushing crazy big government programs, like the Medicare for All plan for socialized medicine that would shrink the size of the economy by nine percent and reduce household incomes by 19 percent after taxes and health spending? Or Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) plan to 'reform capitalism' by nationalizing everything? Or perhaps Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-NY) call to 'Abolish ICE'?" Great messaging at the expense of the party and the progressive values she doesn't believe in or generally support anyway. But... TRUMP.