One Week To Go-- Democratic Lead Continues To Grow

Over the weekend, Mike Siegel gave me an in-depth look at early voting in the stretch of Texas between Austin and Houston (TX-10), the district he's running in. I wasn't surprised that women were voting significantly more than men-- 52-48%-- but there were two things that did surprise me. One was that Travis County (Austin) had registered 94.5% of all eligible voters, which is the highest number I've ever heard in my life. The other was that millennials have been voting at unprecedented rates. Democrats are always waiting for younger voters to come through-- but they rarely do. Mike's anecdotal and local statistical data is backed up by Harvard's Fall 2018 National Youth Poll. The poll looked for engagement for voters between 18 and 29 years old and found them to be "significantly more likely to vote in the upcoming midterm elections compared to 2010 and 2014. Overall, 40 percent report that they will 'definitely vote' in the midterms, with 54 percent of Democrats, 43 percent of Republicans and 24 percent of Independents considered likely voters."

Trump's approval rating among this cohort is a jaw-dropping 26% 18-29 year old voters have largely made up their minds about the 2020 election already:

• will never vote for Trump- 59%
• unlikely- 9%
• possible- 9%
• good chance- 8%
• sure to vote for Trump- 11%

Getting this cohort of voters out to the polls can be crucial to any Democratic candidate. Even Democratic candidates running in very red districts -- like TX-10-- could win if these if these voters participate a week from today. Among likely voters, Democrats are preferred to control Congress by 34 percentage points, 66 to 32 percent.

It's worth mentioning that likely voters in this cohort favor Bernie's platform by big numbers:

• Medicare-for-All- 67%
• Job Guarantee- 63%
• free state colleges- 62%
• election of 40% of corporate boards by employees- 53%

The Harvard pollsters also found that among likely voters under 30, another Bernie platform item has plurality support, though not a majority yet. Building a militant and powerful labor movement in the U.S. rooted in the multi-racial working class: 47% support, 23% oppose, 28% don't know.

Nearly three-in-five (59%) of likely voters say that they will have more fear if the Republicans maintain control of the House after the midterms, with 19% saying they will have more hope. 20% said it would not make a difference, either way.

Yesterday the Public Religion Research Institute released their fall poll as well-- more bad news for the GOP. Asked who they would vote for if the election was today, 57% said the Democrat (up from 44% last month) and 39% said the Republican (up from 35% in September. When asked which issue was MOST important in determining who they would vote for, these were the choices offered and the choices selected:

• The cost of health care- 21%
• The economy- 16%
• The growing gap between rich and poor- 13%
• Immigration- 13%
• Gun policy- 8%
• National security- 8%

• Racial inequality- 7%
• Abortion- 4%
• LGBT issues- 1%

I've been contending-- as has Trump-- that the biggest "issue" on the ballot next week will be Trump himself. That's more bad news for the Republicans. 19% strongly approve, 22% somewhat approve, 16% somewhat disapprove and 42% strongly disapprove. He's like to be an albatross around the necks of GOP candidates next Tuesday. The generic ballot is far worse for the GOP in the brand new L.A. Times poll, where the Democrats are ahead by a startling 17 points. Reuters reported that an analysis of election-prediction data by three major political handicappers-- Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics-- showed that while Republican ratings had improved since early September in seven of 65 competitive races, Democrats had gained in 48 races.

With dozens of House races nationally neck and neck, Democratic Party strategists and candidates said the enthusiasm gap remained on their side.

“If you’re like most people here and you’re getting screwed, falling farther and farther behind, then I think they’re going to vote for us,” Kelly said at a restaurant near his Belleville, Illinois, office.

Like many Democrats running in Trump Country, Kelly has largely avoided mentioning the president during the campaign, instead focusing on kitchen-table issues like wage stagnation.

Even in districts where Trump only narrowly won, some Republicans are trying to capitalize on an energized conservative base.

In New York’s 19th Congressional District, a sprawling, largely rural area, polls show Republican incumbent John Faso effectively tied with Democrat Antonio Delgado in one of the country’s most expensive House races. Like Bost and Chabot, Faso lags his opponent in fundraising, although millions in outside spending have helped the Republicans close the gap in each district.

The district voted for Trump in 2016 after supporting Obama in 2008 and 2012, suggesting Faso could prevail if Trump’s base turns out to vote.

Like other Democrats, Delgado has hammered Faso for stating he wants to protect patients, despite his vote to repeal the healthcare law, accusing the Republican of “unfathomable” hypocrisy.