The Establishment LOVES It When Progressives Lose A Race

Media conservatives could not wait to attack Alexandria (and Bernie) for the races "they" lost Tuesday. This was an especially venal headline from venal right-wing propagandist and fake news manufacturer Kyle Olson, Socialist star Ocasio-Cortez strikes out: All endorsed candidates lose Tuesday primaries. "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s record on Tuesday night for her chosen primary candidates," he giggled, "was as bare as a Venezuelan supermarket shelf." And dull status quo shill Bill Scher quickly penned Down Goes Socialism for Politico. I'm sure Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Chuck Schumer are all patting themselves on the back today. "If you thought," he channeled, "that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s upset primary win over Rep. Joe Crowley meant the Democratic Party was poised to go socialist, think again. Last night’s largely Midwest primaries produced a near-shutout for the anti-establishment left. Ocasio-Cortez partnered with Bernie Sanders to make a series of splashy endorsements that, in the end, failed to clinch victories. And two leftist upstarts hoping to emulate Ocasio-Cortez, and defeat longtime Democratic incumbents, fell far short."

The most glaring defeat came in Michigan’s gubernatorial primary. This is the state where Sanders defied the polls and edged out Hillary Clinton, raising hopes that he had a magic touch in the Rust Belt. Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez tried to catapult the young and brash newcomer Abdul El-Sayed, who trailed in polls, endorsements and money to former state Senate Democratic leader Gretchen Whitmer. They could only nudge him up to second place, with 30 percent of the vote.

In fact, Hillary Clinton’s endorsement appeared to carry the most weight in Michigan. Her late robocall in support of Haley Stevens helped take Stevens from second-place in polls to an Election Night victory in the suburban 11th district, a top Democratic target, while Fayrouz Saad, backed by Ocasio-Cortez, placed fourth. In two other House primaries in Michigan, candidates backed by the party’s official campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, coasted against supporters of Sanders’ signature Medicare for All proposal.

El-Sayed’s defeat may have been the most noticeable loss for Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders, but the defeat of Brent Welder in Kansas is far more politically significant. Welder, a former Sanders 2016 campaign staffer, hoped to carry the Democratic banner in Kansas’ 3rd congressional district. The largely urban district is a top party priority, one of a handful of Republican-held seats that Clinton won in 2016.

The Berniecrat left desperately wants to convince naysaying political veterans (and annoying political pundits) that a democratic socialist platform holds the ticket to victory in heartland districts like this one—so much so that Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez gave a full-throated endorsement to Welder over another compelling and fairly liberal candidate in Sharice Davids.

She’s a lesbian Native American, professional mixed martial arts fighter and former Obama White House Fellow. But Davids exhibited a bit too much of an incrementalist streak for some progressives, arguing that single-payer health insurance is not realistic in the short term and supporting free community college instead of promising to make all college debt-free. Negating the stereotype that the far left puts “identity politics” above all, Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez backed the white guy.

Welder led in the early vote, raising hopes among progressive populists that they would get one major victory out of last night’s primaries, only to see Davids come out on top Wednesday morning by about 2,000 votes. That leaves Nebraska’s Kara Eastman as the only single-payer supporter nominated for a competitive House race in America’s “breadbasket.” (In Kansas’ 4th congressional district, James Thompson, who supports single-payer and was endorsed by Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, won his primary, setting up a rematch with incumbent Rep. Ron Estes. But most professional handicappers don’t consider the seat to be attainable for Democrats.)

Targeted Democratic incumbents easily survived challengers who hoped to be the next Ocasio-Cortez and who were endorsed by the anti-establishment Justice Dems. In Washington State’s “top-two” primary, Susan Smith received less than half the votes of Rep. Adam Smith and failed to make the cut. And in Missouri’s first congressional district, Rep. William Lacy Clay defeated Cori Bush by 20 points. While the remaining Democratic incumbents still facing primaries this year shouldn’t get caught napping like Rep. Joe Crowley, nor do they have to fear that the Democratic Party is gripped with a fever to throw all the bums out.

The one endorsement that paid off for Ocasio-Cortez was of Rashida Tlaib, who won a close race to succeed John Conyers in Michigan’s 13th district and, having no Republican opponent, is poised to be the first Muslim woman elected to Congress. But that victory illuminates the limits of Ocasio-Cortez’s influence. Michigan’s 13th is like New York’s 14th: deep, deep blue. Ocasio-Cortez’s district is the 30th-most Democratic in the country. Tlaib’s is the 21st. When Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth snarked that Ocasio-Cortez represented the future of the Democratic Party “in the Bronx,” she was mistaken. It’s the future of the Bronx-- and Detroit.

OK, that’s a cheap shot. Cori Bush performed better against Clay than did Russ Carnahan, a sitting congressman (who was redistricted out of his seat), in 2012. As FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich wrote on Twitter , “This tells you all you need to know about how the Democratic Party has moved.” Bush, El-Sayed, Smith and Welder all scored about one-third of the Democratic vote in their contests, which is not nothing.

The Democratic Party is more liberal than it was 15 years ago, and there’s no question that shift is partly due to an increasingly vocal, confident, confrontational democratic socialist faction. But it is still only a faction. Most Democratic nominees in competitive House races-- not to mention incumbent Senate Democrats fighting for their political lives in red states—are not embracing single-payer or calling for the abolishment of ICE. They are mostly calling for improvements of the Affordable Care Act and a pathway to citizenship for the undocumented.

“There is no district too red for us to flip,” Ocasio-Cortez declared in a recent speech. Given how close Danny O’Connor came to winning the special election in Ohio’s 12th district, she’s probably right. But her platform doesn’t seem like the path to Democratic victories in red districts, based on Tuesday’s results. In the places where democratic socialists are making their biggest inroads, the hue is blue.

So what does this committed defender of the status quo have wrong? First off, because of her experience as a state legislator coupled with her policy agenda, Rashida Tlaib, was probably the most important race of the evening. And she fought off and beat-- much to the chagrin of the status quo Democrats-- a gaggle of establishment Dems, including the nephew, Ian Conyers, of the outgoing congressman, the son, Coleman Young II, of Detroit's first African-American mayor, the current president of the Detroit City Council, Brenda Jones and the current mayor of suburban Westland (the white candidate in the race).

I seem to recall that the big rally that Bernie and Alexandria did together was in Wichita... where James Thompson won went on to win a 65.3-34.7% landslide. Last time the establishment was busy blowing $6 million on some dull, meaningless centrist in Georgia, this was the result:

The establishment spent virtually nothing to help James Thompson at around the same time and look how his race ended up:

Imagine of one of those millions they wasted on Ossoff had been spent on Thompson's race. So that parenthetical dismissal from Bill Scher is just more elitist crap. KS-04 is very much in play, particularly after Estes just spent the last year being a lapdog and enabler for Trump.

Right now progressive activists who backed Brent Welder in KS-03 and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan are rallying for Sharice David and Gretchen Whitmer... which is more than the DCCC is doing for progressive primary winners like Thompson (KS), Matt Longjohn MI), Mike Siegel (TX), Dayna Steele (TX), Kendra Fershee (WV), Jess King(PA), J.D. Scholten (IA) or Carolyn Long (WA).

Even Fox News' Todd Starnes decided to attack Alexandria, claiming she was a distraction from Danny O'Connor's campaign in Ohio! John Amato at Crooks and Liars had the story. "Religious right loon Todd Starnes... [said] 'another issue here is the Democrats, they've got real trouble on their hands. I imagine Ms. Ocasio-Cortez is going to be crying into her pillow tonight because the Democrat, here O'Connor-- look how he ran, he ran not as a progressive, one of those Socialists, you ran as a centrist. That's a big problem for the Democrats.'"