I Guess "Trump Blunders In Arizona" Isn't Much Of A Headline

But he did-- in the Arizona Senate race. Polling consistently shows that quasi-Democrat Kyrsten Sinema would beat any of the Republican Senate candidates. As you see from the graphic below, the only Republican who even gets close to Sinema in a head-to-head match-up is the one mainstream candidate, Martha McSally. McSally is also the choice of the NRSC and the DC and Phoenix establishments. They feel strongly nominating her is the only chance they have to hold onto the seat.

McConnell and NRSC chair, Cory Gardner (R-CO), have been begging Trump to endorse McSally. So far he hasn't. His base prefers the two extremist crackpots in the race, Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio. All 3 candidates pretend that they have Trump's endorsement. Trump hasn't endorsed but he's said nice things about each one that each one is exploiting. Alex Isenstadt reported in Politico that Trumpanzee' refusal to explicitly endorse any of them for the August 28 primary "has led to a total muddle, prolonging the GOP slugfest in one of the most important Senate races in the country and allowing the presumed Democratic nominee, Kyrsten Sinema, to get a free pass... [E]stablishment Republicans have grown increasingly anxious that they’re squandering a critical window of time to define Sinema, who faces a nominal primary opponent. She’s spent millions of dollars running positive TV ads to boost her image and set the terms of the general election, while no Republican groups have countered."

The keys to controlling the Senate next year rests with Republican-held Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Tennessee and Democratic-held North Dakota and Florida.

People close to the president say not to expect any firm endorsement in the contest.

“President Trump has not endorsed anyone in the GOP Senate primary in Arizona and any photos or other general expressions of support shouldn’t be read as such,” said someone familiar with the operations of the Trump campaign. “He likes all of the candidates in the race very much and looks forward to supporting our nominee in the fall campaign to replace Jeff Flake in the Senate.”

Two senior Republicans in the state say they expect Trump to hold a post-primary "unity" rally, though the White House hasn’t yet announced any plans for an Arizona trip.

In a statement to Politico, Arpaio said he was not bothered by the efforts by Republican leaders to secure a Trump endorsement for McSally.

“At this time my only comment is my relationship with the President speaks for itself. It is no secret that Mitch McConnell and the Establishment do not want me in the US Senate,” he said.

Ward, in an interview in Washington last month, said much the same.

“I know that the Mitch McConnell faction and the establishment pushes [McSally] out as much as they can because that's their insider advantage that I don't have,” she said.

While Republicans continue to slug it out, Sinema’s campaign has run free on the airwaves. She’s spent more than $4 million on TV, running six different ads on health care, her work with veterans and her “record of independence.” Her first ad, launched in April, featured her brother, who is a veteran and police officer.

One-third of Arizona voters don’t identify with either party, and Sinema’s ads have been aimed squarely at those voters-- none of them mention the word “Trump” or “Democrat.” The ad campaign has been so sustained that going "negative against her is going to be extremely difficult,” said veteran Arizona Democratic strategist Andy Barr.

Travis Smith, a consultant for McSally’s campaign, brushed aside concern about Sinema owning the airwaves all summer. He said internal polling between April and July showed only a small uptick in Sinema’s favorability rating, while her negative ratings also rose by a slightly higher amount.

National Democrats haven’t had to spend to boost Sinema. Instead, a super PAC, Red and Gold, which was formed this month and hasn’t filed any information on its donors, has spent $1.6 million airing anti-McSally ads.

Defend Arizona, a pro-McSally super PAC, launched an ad Wednesday pushing back on the Democratic primary meddling. The group has also been running multiple attack ads against Ward.

“We are focused first on the primary,” said Barrett Marson, a spokesman for Defend Arizona, "and then we will focus on Kyrsten Sinema's liberal record.”

Sinema's liberal record? The chair of the Blue Dogs, Sinema has the least  liberal, most conservative voting record of any Democrat in Congress. And she's a total, corrupt Wall Street pawn. ProgressivePunch rates her record "F" which is especially heinous because she's in a strong, safe Democratic district. Her lifetime voting record is 36.17, the lowest of any Democrat in the House. This cycle, her record is even worse, with a 34.35 score, further right than the voting records of 3 Republicans-- Walter Jones (R-NC), Justin Amash (R-MI) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA). It's worth noting that Trump did poorly in her district-- just 38.4%-- while winning Amash's district with 51.6% and Jones' district with 60.5%. Fitzpatrick's newly redrawn Pennsylvania district was very close: Hillary 49.1% and Trumpanzee 47.1%. But in the district as it was drawn at the time, Trump won, albeit narrowly. Sinema has one of the most pro-Trump scores of any Democrat on FiveThirtyEight's Trump Affinity Scale. Based on the district itself, Sinema would be predicted to back Trump 35.3% of the time. Instead she's backed him 60.9%. The only Democrat who votes more frequently with Trump is Henry Cuellar (68.9%), a conservative Texas Republican who, inexplicably, calls himself a Democrat.