Are Millennial Voters The Keys To The Kingdom In November?

Do you know who the "Millennials" are, aside from "those kids?" At first they were called "Gen Y." and it's debatable about when they started being born and when people started being born into "Gen Z." But generally, Millennials started in the early '80s 'til around 2000. They're the children of the Baby Boomers, my generation. They tend to be more liberal though-- and more familiar with digital technologies. As far as voters, they're, approximately, the 18-35 year olds. That age group has tended to not turn-out for elections as much as older people. This year, according to a new NBC poll, might not be much different.

Only 16% of millennials say they have a great deal of interest in politics and elections and 38% say they have a fair amount of interest in politics and elections. 31% say they have only a little interest and 13% have no interest at all. So why have polls shown millennials so excited about Bernie? Far more so than another disruptor: Donald Trump? There's a sense of disillusionment for the establishment and for Trump, who, like Bernie. campaigned against the establishment. Many millennials are savvy enough to understand that Trump is very much a political insider, regardless of what he claims. The NBC polling released this week shows that "the candidate quality that matters most to millennials' vote in the upcoming midterms is someone who can bring about needed change, signifying that young people are still on the hunt for someone they feel can make a difference." That would be Bernie and candidates perceived as being like him-- Alexandria Ocasio (NY), Randy Bryce (WI), James Thompson (KS), Kara Eastman (NE), J.D. Scholten (IA), Rashida Tlaib (MI)...

Many in this cohort don't like what they're seeing so far in the midterm campaign. In 6 surveys starting a year ago, about 60% of them have an unfavorable impression of the GOP. About a quarter of them have a favorable impression of the Republican Party. Good for Democrats, right? Well... good for the Democratic establishment's theory that the party can't be any better than the lesser of two evils. It's what they aim for and the millennials see them that way. 44% of millennials approve of the Democratic Party and 42% disapprove. Sounds horrible-- except that it's better than the GOP. I don't know how much enthusiasm those numbers show will be generated in a little over 2 months. According the the NBC report "A plurality of millennials have consistently said they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in the 2018 congressional elections in the past year, and around a quarter have said they plan to vote for the Republican candidate. A quarter have also said they don’t plan to vote for either party, or are not sure what they’ll do.

Despite Democrats maintaining higher favorable ratings than Republicans and being the favored party candidates for the 2018 midterms across time, Democrats still face a challenge when it comes to inspiring enthusiasm among young people ahead of November.

In 2014, voters under 30 made up just 13 percent of the midterm electorate, according to NBC News exit polls. In 2010, voters under 30 made up 12 percent of the electorate. Those numbers indicate that turnout among young people this year may be just as problematic.

Millennials have unfailingly had a more positive outlook toward the Democratic Party than toward the Republican Party in NBC News/GenForward survey trend data. They are not overwhelmingly enthused to vote in November, however.

While a majority (55 percent) of millennials say they will probably or definitely vote in the midterm election this November, 19 percent of millennials say they definitely or probably will not vote. Another quarter are uncertain about whether or not they'll vote.

...The latest poll finds that 42 percent of millennials say their midterm vote will be in opposition to President Donald Trump. Only 14 percent say their vote in this year's midterm election will be to express support for Trump. Just under a quarter (24 percent) say the president isn't an important factor in their vote one way or the other.

Over the years I've watched hopeful Democratic candidates put their eggs in the young voter basket-- only to be disappointed on election day... when seniors turn out massively and young voters... find something else to do that day.

David Keith, a millennial in his late twenties, was the brains behind the Jimmy Gomez victory in L.A. last year and, more recently, piloted Randy Bryce through the Democratic primary in southeast Wisconsin. Currently he's working to defeat a corporate lawyer hand-picked by Paul Ryan as his own replacement. Ryan's SuperPAC has been smearing Bryce with enormous amounts of negative advertising since even before the primary. Keith told me that Bryce has generated incredible support from millennials but that that isn't what the campaign is counting on to generate a victory in November. "There’s never been a doubt that Millennial voters are part of our coalition. But Randy’s campaign has focused on a message, and issue set, that reaches all ages and demographics-- unfortunately many campaigns don’t understand that concept and utilize a much too narrow focus. Randy has been campaigning on free public college education, for example, but he's also campaigning on Medicare-For-All. How could an 88 year old retiree in Racine not join forces with a U.W. Parkside 20 year old behind such a message? Millennials are sick of the status quo, which is part of the reason they are disproportionately drawn to Randy-- the ultimate outsider. However, seniors-- reliant on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security-- are no doubt the most reliable voting block, especially in midterms, period. Anyone who says otherwise is kidding themselves or the candidate they are working for. Randy's policy agenda is very appealing to older Wisconsinites who have lived through a downturn in their standard of living since the Republicans managed to take over the state and disable the union movement. They believe in Randy's authenticity and know he's going to Congress to work for THEM for real, unlike professional politicians have in the past. It’s not about Democratic or Republican to these voters, as their lives are depending on the electoral outcome. It’s about real vs. fake. Bullshit vs. authenticity. They see themselves in Randy and his real life struggles. They see corporate America and more of the same lies in Ryan’s clone, Bryan Steil."

More or less a millennial himself (born in 1977), Mike Siegel is a Texas progressive running in the 10th district. "We know that Millennial voters are increasingly engaged in local politics in Austin," he told us today. "A November 2017 local bond election featured a massive upsurge in turnout for voters under 40, to the surprise of local campaign veterans. On the campaign trail, I am meeting tech workers who are usually disengaged from electoral politics, but who this year are voting because of the Family Separation policy and other hateful conduct coming from the Republican Administration. We also have a huge opportunity at local universities, including the University of Texas and Prairie View A&M University. My campaign is fighting for free public college education, a living wage, and infrastructure spending to provide rural Internet access. We are hiring full-time organizers to register voters and turnout the college vote. Young folks have the keys to our country in their hands. We will do everything possible to prepare them to vote-- while working with Texans of all ages between Travis and Harris counties."