Across The Board, Yesterday's Primary Turnout Was Catastrophic For The GOP

A great night for progressives and reformers 

Yesterday Nate Silver said that "In races where insurgent, progressive Democrats are running against party-backed nominees ... the establishment Democrat is winning 89% of the time." If not so sure about definitions that make that even remotely true. And it certainly wasn't true last night. I'll give you two examples. First, the only contested congressional race in Connecticut was in the 5th district. Although Obama is a big fan of Teacher of the Year, progressive Jahana Hayes, the establishment candidate was, clearly the more conservative Mary Glassman, the first Democratic primary candidate to be backed by the U.S. Chamber since they tried to rescue Blanche Lincoln. They failed and Jahana won-- big.

The Republicans had hoped to make a race out of that district but while 39,115 Democrats voted, just 31,394 Republicans bothered showing up to vote, a good harbinger for November-- and a dynamic we'll be discussing in a moment. Another race that puts the lie to Silver's assertion was in Wisconsin's first congressional district. Randy "@IronStache" Bryce, came into the race as a progressive insurgent with ZERO backing from the DCCC and he has no establishment crap attached to his campaign. When the DCCC saw that he had created an invincible brand and was outraging all their own candidates across the country, they added him to their red-to-blue page and tried to run to the front of the parade, which they never quite caught up with. Silver might consider that a win for the establishment but... well, that's another example of a flaw in what Silver does. Randy's results against a fake progressive (who backed Hillary in 2016 and who was heavily backed by Paul Ryan's SuperPAC in the primary) shows how a progressive reformer wins in a swing district without even a nod in the direction of the DCCC's Republican-lite one-size-fits-all prescription for victory:

Again, in a district where both Romney and Trump won and where voters had become accustomed to backing Paul Ryan locally, 61,087 Democrats showed up at the polls, but the GOP could muster only 59,870 Republican voters for a lively primary that featured Bryan Steil, a Ryan clone and establishment pick, and a neo-Nazi millionaire, Paul Nehlen, a guy named Ryan and 3 other white male conservatives.

In both these races and the others in all the states we were following last night, a big story was the turnout. Democrats out-performed and Republicans under-performed. Let's start in Vermont:

The Republican governor, Phil Scott, is popular in the state and the top Democratic candidate-- who wn handily, is a transgender woman, Christine Hallquist. It wasn't only that Hallquist drew more voters than Scott-- 27,558 to 24,206-- it was that 57,102 voters turned up for the Democratic race, but just 35,840 turned up to vote in the Republican primary, where a gun-nut backed by the NRA campaigned vigorously against Scott. In the other statewide races it was the same thing: huge turnouts for the Democratic races, significantly smaller turnouts for the GOP.

The Republicans think they have a shot to grab the Connecticut governor's mansion, but progressive Democrat Ned Lamont alone, took more votes than all 5 Republicans combined! 211,499 Democrats voted but only 142,890 Republicans.

In Wisconsin, the Democrats picked the most likely Democrat-- from a field of 10-- to beat Scott Walker in November, State Superintendent of Education, Tony Evers. But the big news was that 537,840 voters showed up for the Democratic primary but just 456,007 came for the GOP primary. Alarm bells are ringing. In the state's U.S. Senate race, Leah Vukmir beat Kevin Nicholson, even though she was tarred as the anti-Trump candidate and even though he was backed by the big money-- and even though polls showed him performing better than Vukmir against Democrat Tammy Baldwin in November. Nicholson outspent her $3,087,414 to $1,573,068 and the outside money that flowed into the race included around $10,000,000 for Nicholson and just $2.5 million for Vukmir. She took 217,023 votes to his 190,040-- 49% to 42.9%.

And that brings us to Minnesota-- and the same story as in Vermont, Connecticut and Wisconsin: more Democrats, fewer Republicans coming out to vote. In the gubernatorial race-- won by Tim Walz-- 580,962 Dems voted but just 319,276 Republicans. And, better yet, the mainstream conservative, Tim Pawlenty was defeated 52.6% to 43.9% by right-wing extremist Jeff Johnson, making Walz's job in November much easier than anyone expected. Pawlenty told the media that "The Republican Party has shifted. It is the era of Trump, and I’m just not a Trump-like politician." In the two U.S. Senate races it was the same story-- way more Democrats voting. Amy Klobuchar alone won more votes than all 4 Republicans combined-- 554,611 to 288,482-- as did Democrat Tina Smith Smith in the special election.

Even in the contested Republican-leaning congressional districts, Democratic voter turnout out-performed Republican voter turnout. The GOP hopes to pick up two blue seats that Trump won. In MN-08, where Rick Nolan is retiring, the PVI is R+4 and Trump beat Hillary 54.2% to 38.6%-- but 67,083 voters showed up for the Democratic primary and just 49,032 came to vote in the GOP primary. Same story in the first district, where Walz left a vulnerable seat open. The PVI is R+5 and Trump beat Hillary 53.3% to 38.4%.. But bad news for the NRCC: 47,248 Democrats and 42,385 Republicans.

And as long as we're on Minnesota, no one expected a Republican showing in the 5th district (Minneapolis) for Keith Ellison's empty seat but the results were noteworthy because super-progressive Ilhan Omar won in a rout, 48.2% in a 6-person field. And just so you can see what happens in a blue district-- 135,318 voters showed up for the Democratic primary and only 15,367 for the Republican primary. The third highest vote getter among the Democrats won more votes than all 3 Republican contestants combined.

As Chuck Todd mentioned this morning for NBC, "Democratic enthusiasm is still sky-high." In both Minnesota and Wisconsin voter turnout was over 20%, higher than primaries in non-presidential years than anything since decades.

Having tested their messaging with their pathetic and very negative puppet, Cathy Myers, in the WI-01 race, the GOP was out this morning with a vicious radio ad based on the issues they gave her to use against Bryce, issues they pounded with incessant push-polling on her behalf all during the primary. This is what happens when an unserious vanity candidate can capitalize on a high-profile race to make a few greedy consultants rich at the expense of accomplishing something that the progressive community has been craving-- and needs-- so badly. Cathy Myers-- worst and most detrimental candidate to have run in 2018.