Larry Kudlow-- De Minimis

Perhaps you weren't born in 1994-- or maybe not reading the NY Times yet. So... in light of Larry Kudlow popping his head of of his West Wing hole today, let's take a ride back in the long-time-ago-time-machine. Sylvia Nasar and Alison Cowan-- hey Alison!-- began their feature by noting that "Kudlow seemed a master of the universe. Being a top Wall Street economist was not the half of it. Mr. Kudlow had been a prominent member of President Reagan's economic team. He helped conceive and fight for the tax-cut proposal that helped Christine Todd Whitman become Governor of New Jersey. One of the nation's most articulate and charismatic commentators on financial issues, he has become the economic guru of Jack Kemp and of the conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh, as well as a regular on television interview programs and a speaker commanding hefty fees. He even starred in Cadillac ads."

Republicans were thinking about running him for the Senate, against Pat Moynihan. Or talking him up as a cabinet secretary if a rightist were to win the presidency. "A hot political property," they wrote, "he had nowhere to go but up." But then he was fired from Bear Sterns and exposed as a coke freak.

[L]ast week, in an interview, Larry Kudlow had a confession to make: behind the polished facade lived a troubled and deeply unhappy man who has been battling an addiction to drugs and alcohol.

Swiveling in his chair in the offices of his new employer, National Review magazine, Mr. Kudlow lighted yet another Merit Ultra Light and began an explanation that many others would not summon the courage to make: Fifteen months ago he took a four-week medical leave of absence from his Wall Street firm, Bear Stearns.

"I went into drug rehab," Mr. Kudlow said, deciding to discuss his problem after being told he was the subject of a profile. "I had an alcohol and substance-abuse problem that needed to be taken care of."

He said that for 15 months he has been attending twice daily a self-help program for recovering addicts.

"I am willing to share with you my problem," he said, following the example of many people in programs like Alcoholics Anonymous. "Anyone who blames Bear Stearns is not right. I take full personal responsibility."

Then this dapper man in a blue pinstripe shirt and monogrammed cufflinks, a man sometimes described as poker-faced, began to cry. Sounding scared, not at all like the suave raconteur and deft name dropper of two hours earlier, Mr. Kudlow said he lived in fear of sliding backward. "I live my life day to day," he said.

...Kudlow attributes his slide partly to pure pressure. On Wall Street there are producers and then there's everyone else, and the pressure to produce helped drive Mr. Kudlow to drink and drugs.

...Another problem was that when he felt down, he didn't know how to turn to a friend. He described himself, for all his gregariousness and bonhomie, as a man who spent much of his life isolated, ashamed to let others know him well enough to share his failings and embarrassments along with the successes.

"I never had any friends beyond a certain superficial level," he said. "We hate to admit weaknesses. We were raised to want to get ahead, to be good and clever and successful. You're just ashamed to open up."

A re-invented hippie draft-dodger with 3 wives and Jewish convert to Catholicism, Kudlow's life has been marked by wild and unpredictable swings. His doctors have told him that if he took another high stress job it could lead to his death. In fact, in June he had a heart attack.

Last week, Kai Ryssdal interviewed him for NPR's Marketplace (up top) and he sounded like a truculent moron pushing failed, trickle down economic policies. Here's an excerpt I was listening to last week in real time. It ws a discussion about trade policies and the impact of tariffs on the American people. It made me wonder if they removed his heart in June when he was in the hospital:

Ryssdal: We had a Republican congresswoman from Indiana on the program yesterday whose name is, her name is Jackie Walorski, she's from the Indiana second and I said to her...

Kudlow: From the what?

Ryssdal: Indiana's 2nd congressional district right. She's a Republican, went heavily for the president in the election. She supports the idea of a new trade regime under this president. But I said to her tell me what your constituents are saying and this is Elkhart, Indiana right. They made RVs, they make all those things that depend on steel and she said people are coming to her saying “we want to know when it's going to stop. When's it gonna stop?”

Kudlow: It being?

Ryssdal: It the tariffs and the pain that is happening to American companies and consumers from these tariffs.

Kudlow: I think that, look I appreciate, I don't happen to know this house member but you know I appreciate the concern, absolutely. But I will say so far the pain has been de minimis, really very little.

Ryssdal: Look, sir, really with all respect that's easy for you to say sitting here on the second floor of the West Wing of the White House.

Kudlow: Now, don't class warfare me or anything like that. I'm telling you quantitatively we follow this very closely because we are concerned about it. There is very little impact, almost unmeasurable impact on real GDP. OK? That's a fact. It may be out there. I don't want to predict U.S.-China relations on trade but I'm just saying, thus far, in GDP terms, it's been nothing, unmeasurable. Now, there are worries, I get that and I respect those worries. Some farmers have been hurt probably the soybean area has been the clearest and hardest hit. Soybean prices are off about 20 percent and there may be other things besides trade but I think it has a big, big to do with China's tariffs. So I'm going to, I'm going to even that out. I'm going to sell so many bushels of soybeans to Europe that I'm going to take the price back to $10 and take China out of the calculus. That's one of the things that came out of the EU deal and that's by the way literally written in the, in the, in the final statement. We are prepared to help the farmers if we need to. As the president has indicated we could come to their rescue for a considerable sum of money. Thus far it's not necessary. I personally don't think it's ever going to be necessary. But my crystal ball is not perfect here. Other than that, I can't, I just don't see anything yet.

Yesterday Kudlow claimed in an interview with Politico that "These are very good times and the midterms will be a report card on that," despite the fact that only the wealthy are feeling the Republican tax cuts and despite the fact that wages are down since Trump entered the White House.

“The confidence indices are telling a very important story, and POTUS is polling in the low to mid fifties on the economy,” Kudlow said just before returning to the White House after some time off. “The great blue wall has crashed. I think GOP will lose seats but keep the House.”

Republicans are counting on faster growth and a low jobless rate to help them hold off expected Democratic gains in swing districts where Trump polls poorly. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to retake the House.

But so far, the economy has not played a major role in special elections, with Republican candidates talking more about guns, immigration and other hot-button social issues while painting Democrats as liberal extremists.

Trump himself often touts strong economic numbers-- including the second-quarter growth rate of 4.1 percent-- but also gets repeatedly sidetracked by the Russia investigation and stories like the recent tell-all book from his former top aide Omarosa Manigault Newman.

Republicans also have to deal with a tax-cut bill that focused on lowering corporate rates and remains widely unpopular with the public. A poll in June by Politico and Morning Consult found that just 37 percent of voters supported the tax cut, down from 44 percent in April.

Democrats are also hammering at any signs that Trump’s tariff battles with China and his levies on steel and aluminum are costing U.S. jobs while driving up prices for consumers. And they note that when adjusted for inflation, earnings are flat over the last year, if not slightly lower.

Kudlow rejected that measure of wages and said workers were feeling better about the economy in ways that will help the GOP.

“All you have in [the Consumer Price Index] is a bump up in oil prices,” he said. “And energy prices are already coming down. The dollar is strong. The more important measure is real disposable income and it’s booming.”

Kudlow added that he continued to see real momentum in talks with European Union leaders to avoid a tariff war and lower existing levies.

“We set up a process and they are coming back here. And I’ll be going to Brussels,” he said. “I grabbed ahold of this and I’m not letting go.”

Republican incumbents trying to save their seats have learned to never mention the unpopular Trump tax cuts and they complain that the fake spike in the economy isn't reaching working and middle class voters, so they don't talk about it on the campaign trail. Perhaps Kudlow should introduce himself to Rep. Jackie Walorski from Indiana's second district and discuss it with her. Even washed up old stoners can learn something useful once in a while.

Besides, this doesn't sound very de minimisy: U.S. Farm-Export Prices Drop Most Since 2011; does it? Do any farm states have Republican legislators up for reelection in November?