Monday, June 11, 2018

Tuesday In Maine-- Much At Stake... And South Carolina And Wisconsin


Tomorrow there are primaries in 5 states, Nevada, Maine, Virginia, North Dakota and South Carolina. We're watching Maine more closely than any of the other states. Blue America has only endorsed one federal candidate in any of the 5 states-- Jared Golden, who's running for Wall Street oriented Bruce Poliquin's seat in the sprawling non-Portland bulk of the state. Tomorrow he has to get through the establishment richie rich guy, Lucas St. Clair, whose mother cheated the founder of Burt's Bee's out of his company and then moved it to North Carolina. St. Clair is wealthy and so are his friends and they're spending dark money like mad to beat Golden, a former small town kind who joined the marine, saw front line duty in Iraq and Afghanistan and came back home and is now the state legislator's majority whip. Golden is a dedicated progressive. St. Clair is an environmental care with no clear political point of view-- kind of "whatever." Bernie won the district over Clinton but in the general Trump won by over 10 points-- and won an electoral vote. The PVI is R+2 but Golden has what it takes to communicate with the people in the district far better than wither St. Clair or Poliquin.

With Maine's own Trumpanzee, Paul LePage termed out, there's also a gubernatorial race-- and there lots of candidates running from both parties and a brand spanking new anked-choice voting system. So... impossible to predict-- and certainly something we're not going to get a final conclusion on for a few days. The 7 Democrats are front-runner Janet Mills, the state's Attorney General, former state Rep Mark Eves, former state Rep Diane Russell, state Senator Mark Dion, former mayor Donna Dion, Adam Cote and Betsy Sweet. There are 4 Republicans, state Rep Kenneth Fredette, state Senator Garrtee Mason, Mart Mayhew and Shawn Moody. There are also 6 independents. Independents are important in Maine since they sometimes win and sometimes throw races to Republicans, which is how LePage won.

Maine has a U.S. Senate race for Angus King's seat. He's an independent and considered a shoe-in, although there's a Democrat, Zak Ringelstein running unopposed tomorrow (far more progressive than King) and two Republicans vying for their party's ticket, Eric Brakey and Max Linn.

The state Senate is a big deal tomorrow. Currently there are 18 Republicans and 17 Democrats but in n 2016, five seats won by Democrats had a margin of victory of less than 10% and four seats won by Republicans had a margin of victory of less than 10%. Also, Hillary won five districts that elected Republicans to the state Senate and Trump won four districts that elected Democrats to the state Senate. The races to watch tomorrow:
District 1- Troy Jackson (D) is the incumbent but Trump won by 7.2 points
District 2- Michael Carpenter (D) is the incumbent but Trump beat Hillary by a whopping 29.9 points
District 3- Rodney Whittemore (R) is the incumbent and Trump won the district by 19.5 points, although Obama has taken it in 2012 by 4.6 points.
District 11- Michael Thibodeau (R) is the incumbent but Clinton narrowly won the district in 2016 (by less than a point); Obama had won it by almost 11 points.
District 14- Shenna Bellows (D) is the incumbent but Trump took the district by 2.4 points.
The Democrats control the state House 74-70 with 7 Independents hoping seats. There are 4 seats that are the most flippable, one Republican seat, one Democratic seat and two independent seats. Remember, Trump won 18 districts that elected Democrats and Hillary won eight districts that elected Republicans. Four of the districts held by independents went for Clinton and one went for Trump.
District 33- A GOP district that Hillary won by 31 points
District 82- An independent incumbent where Trump won by 23 points
District 94- An independent incumbent where Hillary won by 40 points
District 138- A Democratic district where Trump won by 26 points.

BONUS: South Carolina

As Alex Isenstadt pointed out today, Mark Sanford (R-SC) may be in trouble tomorrow. No friend of Señor Trumpanzee, he's up against a Republican primary opponent, state Rep. Katie Arrington, who is-- and in a district that voted 53.5% to 40.4% for Trump. Arrington has cast Sanford as a disloyal Never-Trumper. We'll see if that works among Republican primary voters tomorrow.

And... Wisconsin

There are no primaries tomorrow. That's on August 14. Tomorrow though are 2 crucial special election. A few days ago the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel summed it all up: "Tuesday's special elections in Wisconsin could offer clues about a possible 'blue wave'" There's a state Senate district and an Assembly district which Scott Walker desperately tried to avoid special elections in. Two courts told him to stop behaving like a fascist. Tomorrow's the day. Randy Bryce has been campaign for both and raising money for both, Ann Groves Lloyd and Caleb Frostman.

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At 1:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

CA and TX already show how things are going to go this fall. More of the same, and less progressive action.


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